Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.
Among the other findings:
• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).
• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.
• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.
Hey P1, that mountain out of a molehill report from the ABC, mainly shows the different standards that they apply when reporting on Labor figures as opposed to those from the coalition.
Suddenly, they find the long lost skill of doing a little bit of research, hitherto long forgotten when reporting on the government.
The fact that the report is written by Louise Yaxley comes as no surprise.
I’m with Sohar. Abbott’s continued presence is at least achieving something tangible. Rudd’s not so much.
An ANU lectureship is not a ‘position of profit under the crown’.
Elaugaufein
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 1:45 pm
Zoomster
This is a late reply, but GetUp did polling recently showing Dutton was up in his seat . Might have been an outlier or maybe it was 2PP and the PHON vote is breaking for Dutton strongly ?
Seat-by-seat polling is essentially useless. It’s just not possible to get large enough, randomised samples from seat-sized populations. The inherent biases mean the MOE will almost always be greater than any suggested 2PP split. The best thing to do with such polls is dump them.
Andrew Bartlett @AndrewBartlett 2h2 hours ago
Here is my full response to questions about a position I held at ANU when I was nominated for the Senate ticket.
https://twitter.com/AndrewBartlett/status/887866272708313089
Sohar
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:09 pm
“What can you say – the LNP have Abbott and the ALP have Rudd”
I’ll miss Tony, but not Kevin.
Abbott is campaigning for Labor, so that’s good as far as it goes. But the single best thing the bar-none worst PM in Australian history can do for the country would be to resign his seat. He is nothing but trouble.
Sohar @ #1191 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 1:37 pm
I’m still waiting for “sealed indictment”.
ItzaDream
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 1:01 pm
Oh, man, that’s some story. Heart in mouth.
I’m glad you had a wee in Lady Bird Gardens, though.
Miss Tony?
Like a hole in the head.
Elaugaufein
I’m not disbelieving you, but in your original post you said you had ‘heard’ that Dutton was doing well in his seat. I can’t find a single poll – even when I include GetUp in the search, even on GetUp’s ‘Get Dutton’ page – which suggests this.
Hard to gauge the reliability of a poll if you can’t find it!
Zoomster
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:40 pm
Elaugaufein
I’m not disbelieving you, but in your original post you said you had ‘heard’ that Dutton was doing well in his seat. I can’t find a single poll – even when I include GetUp in the search, even on GetUp’s ‘Get Dutton’ page – which suggests this.
Hard to gauge the reliability of a poll if you can’t find it!
*********************************************************
I remember the one Elaugaufein is talking about. Agree with Bemused, seat level polling is useless.
On Jason Fallinski saying he is not a Polish citizen because he was born in Australia –
“A child born to a Polish parent is a Polish citizen at birth. This applies whether the child is born in Poland or elsewhere.”
Grimace
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:45 pm
I remember the one Elaugaufein is talking about. Agree with Bemused, seat level polling is useless.
lol….one thing I am not is bemused… 🙂
Grimace
(I think you mean Briefly).
I’d like to find the GetUp poll, because it’s in direct contradiction to the other recent poll on Dickson, which I referred to earlier (there may actually be two polls: there are references to a ReachTel poll, but since this seems to have exactly the same numbers, I’m assuming it’s the same poll under a different guise…)
If one poll of the seat shows Dutton losing over 9% of his vote and another shows him gaining, then at least one of them is wrong!
@ Briefly
Please accept my apologies, it’s not the first time I’ve done that either. I’ll endevour to be more dilligent in future.
When I was a federal Labor candidate some years ago the question was raised whether I should resign my VMO position at the local public hospital. The advice was no, VMOs contractors rather employees but I think that these days it could be seen as an office of profit.
Of course Arbib’s advice may have been influenced by the fact that I had no chance of winning.
It would be interesting to know if Dr Gillespie resigned his VMO position before nominating.
OC
I was never asked to resign from the local hospital board. It was strongly suggested I resign from council, but I argued I was employed by ratepayers, not the Crown; the next time, I was told that Labor no longer considered a councillor as having a position of profit under the Crown. That said, our candidate at the last election resigned as a councillor in the lead up to the election, although I believe he did so against the advice of the ALP.
Grimace
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:50 pm
@ Briefly
Please accept my apologies, it’s not the first time I’ve done that either. I’ll endevour to be more dilligent in future.
Cheers, G. No offence taken I assure you. I’m often given to musing of various kinds. I prefer to be a-mused than be-mused.
Wasn’t Christian Porter a UWA employee before he joined state parliament?
I understand that while any child of a Pole is entitled to Polish citizenship you actually have to ask for it to be activated.
The Irish Republic is the same but here’s the twist, Eire did not recognize the legality of the northern province until after the 1999 Good Friday Agreement and anyone born on the island of Ireland was considered to be a citizen of the Republic. So an MP born in Northern Ireland before 1999 would need to repudiate both UK and Irish citizenship, even if they are “Billy the Orange Bigot” who would rather eat their own arm off that be considered Irish.
Looking at the GetUp! donations disclosure page shows their membership are fired up about something, probably the Stop Dutton’s Purge campaign, they are reporting 3,821 donations totalling $110,733, and the average donation is well up on the 12 month average.
The L/NP will be on the warpath for sure, and looking for a way to severely curtail GetUp!’s strategies.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/mosul-massacre-battle-isis-iraq-city-civilian-casualties-killed-deaths-fighting-forces-islamic-state-a7848781.html
Yet more casualties….so much pointless and avoidable loss, in the scheme of things.
Confessions
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:58 pm
Wasn’t Christian Porter a UWA employee before he joined state parliament?
IIRC it was the DPP.
Grimace
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 2:58 pm
Looking at the GetUp!
Popular activism is alive and well in Australia. If the LNP try to suppress it they will stir up endless protest.
Grimace:
According to Wiki he was both.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Porter
The British Home Secretary actually wanted to make the Moors Murderers eligible for parole. That’s even worse than making von Einem eligible for parole.
“Margaret Thatcher intervened to overrule the home secretary and ensure that the Moors murderers, Myra Hindley and Ian Brady, were never released from prison, Downing Street papers have revealed.
Thatcher told Leon Brittan in February 1985 that his proposed minimum sentences of 30 years for Hindley and 40 years for Brady were too short.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/margaret-thatcher-moors-murderers-ian-brady-myra-hindley
First Dog on Dutton’s new Empire.
J. Edger Tuber even gets a mention.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/20/peter-duttons-new-mega-department-will-streamline-dog-whistling-and-fear-whipping
Abbott “playing a constructive role” – that would make a good cartoon where Tony the Builder was constructing a brick wall all around Turnbull with no doors or windows.
citizen @ #1228 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 3:43 pm
Nah, wouldn’t work.
He wouldn’t be able to resist knocking it down. 🙂
Tony is playing a very constructive role by assisting the perception among voters that this rabble of a govt is incompetent and hopeless, most esp the PM.
If Malcolm is looking for more constructive output from Tony, then I’m happy with that! *grins*
citizen @ #1228 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 3:43 pm
Morrison was originally pre-selected after the faceless hacks at HO sacked a locally endorsed candidate.
CTAr1
[On Jason Fallinski saying he is not a Polish citizen because he was born in Australia –
“A child born to a Polish parent is a Polish citizen at birth. This applies whether the child is born in Poland or elsewhere.”]
Could an enemy state of Australia pass a law making all members of the Australian parliament citizens of the enemy state?
C@t
Catching up on posts. Wishing your son a speedy recovery!!
Brilliant First Dog, BIGD.
Meanwhile, Russia pushes propaganda to galactic scale, Putin to be the brightest star in the night’s sky.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/brightest-satellite-mayak-russian-space-science/
shellbell @ #1232 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 3:56 pm
I think the HC has considered that sort of mischief and rightly ruled it out as disqualifying someone.
First Dog not missed Dutton –
petulant dull eyed indifference.
shellbell @ #1232 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 3:56 pm
I vote no, because as long as they make a reasonable effort to renounce/decline that citizenship they’ll have satisfied their Constitutional obligations. Australian courts would probably be quite lenient in that scenario in terms of establishing what counts as “reasonable”, if any challenges were actually brought. Probably anyone who doesn’t go “hey cool, check out my shiny new dual citizenship!” would be safe.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1236 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 4:03 pm
On a counter hypothetical, could a casual vacancy, like one that could be created during the Green’s tidy up, be legally filled by a fugitive by the likes of Assange?
Don’t tell Kim Jong-un, he might try it.
Shellbell
LoL.
The HC decision (Sykes v Cleary) apparently raises the question of such ‘mischief’ directly – one of the exemptions.
.@ash_gillon: The latest Sky News ReachTEL poll shows Labor only slightly above the coalition. Watch now live on Sky New channel 601.
….one thing I am not is bemused…
LOL just realised who’s missing.
That Reachtel is apparently 51-49 Labor, and that’s all I know about it. Sounds an outlier to me, no other poll has it that close, and there hasn’t been a narrowing trend exhibited anywhere of late.
Primary vote in Reachtel apparently: Lib 30%, Nats 3%, Labor 34%, Green 8%, ON 11%, other 6%
ON seems high to me. Very high.
zeh @ #1239 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:05 pm
Way above my non-lawyer pay grade and I can’t remember ever seeing any reference to it.
The only thing I can think of that might give some indication is extradition where I believe we will not extradite someone for something that is not a crime in Australia.
So maybe they might look at the crime and whether that crime in Australia would exclude them from standing.
But, really NFI.
Lawyers please.
Good afternoon all,
I think we need to wait and see the full polling detail from this latest Reachtel. The headline figure would be respondent allocated so the primary votes and how the undecided respondents split will be interesting.
I canny find the last Reachtel from sky on the Reachtel home page so not sure how primary votes have moved if at all.
Cheers.
Burgey
Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:35 pm
Primary vote in Reachtel apparently: Lib 30%, Nats 3%, Labor 34%, Green 8%, ON 11%, other 6%
ON seems high to me. Very high.
**********************
In the WA state election PHON did about that on average in the Legislative Assembly seats they ran in.
burgey @ #1246 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:35 pm
Only adds up to 92 as well.