Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.
Among the other findings:
• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).
• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.
• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.
1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”
Burgey @ #1245 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 4:33 pm
Nah, must be the case that everyone just loves Dutton’s new super-agency.
Barney. That’s kind of hilarious.
Posting has gone to the shithole
Undecideds would be the other 8%, I would assume, so how they split when pushed will be interesting.
As I posted before I cannot find the last sky Reachtel breakdown on the Reachtel home page so whether there has been much actual movement in primaries and the allocation of undecideds is not yet clear.
Anyway, I am sure all will become clear in due course. Not a biggie I would think.
I was polled by Reachtel last night. Only one question – which party would get your primary vote.
Interesting to think that when Rudd was hacking away wildly at JG the polling showed double digit leads to the Opposition but now with Abbott do an even worse hatchet job on Turnbull we have a virtually line ball poll out today.
The ALP would have to be concerned about their narrow polling lead.
Perhaps a change of ALP leadership might provide for a substantial double digit lead in the polls.
Royal commission has published a very substantial paper of childhood memory of sexual abuse
The conclusion is that scepticism about event recall is largely unjustified. How this study might play out in court cases will be very interesting.
rex douglas @ #1256 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:54 pm
Rex, you are a hoot!
Bill Maher once did a New Rules segment called the empathy gap, in which he pointed to numerous egs of how Republicans found their soul and heart only when tragedy struck them or their loved ones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVwFmdipfZg
Hopefully McCain’s cancer diagnosis will give him pause for thought in the healthcare debate.
Love how Rex pops his head above the parapet to screech ‘get rid of Shorten’ at every opportunity.
Like P1 says, you’re a hoot!
Where was Rex when the last Essential was posted?
jenauthor @ #1260 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:00 pm
But to the substantive point – given the divisions within the govt, why do we have a poll out today showing the bare minimum lead to the Opposition ?
Answer must be the Opposition message isn’t cutting through.
Reachtel – Green 8%, ON 11%.
Perhaps this reflects the Greens’ current ‘troubles’ and the fact PH has been fairly silent recently.
“Only adds up to 92 as well.”
The laws of mathematics no longer apply in Australia.
here’s one for Boerwar and briefly…
Tony Blair should accept his era is over. Jeremy Corbyn is right for today
kakuru @ #1264 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:08 pm
They haven’t applied since Hockey was treasurer.
Talk about being hit by a limp lettuce leaf! What are they going to do, hold a round of bingo to drum up support to unseat him?
‘But to the substantive point – given the divisions within the govt, why do we have a poll out today showing the bare minimum lead to the Opposition ?
Answer must be the Opposition message isn’t cutting through.’
I blame the ABC 😉
Re polls, the latest Bludgertrack gives 53-47. I think that’s probably closest to the underlying situation. The Essential poll (this thread), at 54-46, is probably generous to Labor. Margin of error is about 2%, so consistent with 53-47. The Reachel poll (51-49) would also be within the margin of error.
So, no big deal. Rex can be reassured that there’s no need for Labor to change leaders.
On McCain, the glioblastoma is in his prefrontal lobe so it certainly could affect his planning and executive mental functions.
There have been so many instances over the last few months of WTF? from McCain. Barely coherent ramblings in the Senate to name one instance, and after the last one people were actively mentioning ‘diminished mental capacity’ in its wake. Perhaps this diagnosis really does explain things.
Re 2PP results in Federal elections, Labor last scored 53+ in 1983 (53.2 – Bob Hawke’s first win) and 54+ in 1946 (54.1 – when the Liberals were newly established from the ruins of their collapsed predecessor).
So, Bill Shorten isn’t the Messiah, but even a Messiah could barely make 53, and he only did it once. On the other hand, a new and no doubt struggling “Liberal” – Country Coalition could still muster nearly 46.
Rex’s appearances suggesting a change of Opposition Leader have an amazing correlation with the existing Govt not traveling well.
ctar1 @ #1273 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:24 pm
I think there is a closer correlation with the Greens not traveling well!
Reachtel has Labor primary one point ahead of [Liberal + National] primary 34-33. In most polls that would have Labor further ahead than 51-49, so the 2pp in this poll is obviously affected by the lower than usual Green vote and perhaps the higher ON vote.
Perhaps a “shy Green” factor at the moment, reflecting the unwillingness of some people to associate themselves with the embarrassment of two resignations due to incompetence.
Flying Spaghetti Monster of course.
Maybe the Reachtel primary of Lib 30 is a typo – should be 38???
Interestingly, McCain has already said he wants to get back to work ASAP. I’m not sure how they will determine his mental competence to do so; it would be likely to fluctuate from day to day.
Never miss an opportunity do you Rex?
You just don’t realise how ridiculous you sound at times.
Answer about foreign nations making our parliamentarians is in the HC decision in Sue v Hill at paras 175-176
Isn’t Reachtel respondent allocated? This could explain the 2pp?
Rex must have promised someone his first born should Shorten become PM.
CNN has an article quoting lots of statistics that show the US is way different to every other country when it comes to gun ownership and use.
While McCain is very old there must be a precedent surrounding sitting members diagnosed with serious, potentially significantly debilitating illness and their ongoing performance as legislators.
Skynews article – note level of support for renewable energy:
Rex – Owen Jones of the Guardian is a prime ar#ehole and full of himself.
However his suggestion that Blair as Labour leader now would be not only good for Labour but also a very fortunate thing for the UK.
He would do well in this environment. I can’t think of a better person to become UK PM now and to make the best of the current mess.
doyley @ #1254 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:52 pm
Yeh, but the important thing is, it shows the Labor primary is more than the Government’s.
Discarding the undecideds a quick back of the envelope gives a 2PP of 53% – 47% for Labor so it doesn’t seem to be showing anything different from the others.
There is a mechanism for the POTUS (the 25th Amendment) but I don’t think there is one for a senator. I’m unaware of us having one in Australia for an impaired PM or MP.
Rex comes out is the time to go do real life stuff oh wait, I am already doing that.
Diogenes @ #1278 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:32 pm
I had a dear friend die from this a few years ago and the decline is heart breaking to witness. It’s not going to get better. McCain and his family need to pull up stumps and deal with the reality . He’s been a great American.
shellbell @ #1288 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:50 pm
Very good. 🙂 🙂 🙂
He’s the spitting image of that vet Chris Brown!
I’m unaware also. But if McCain’s decline is swift he’s going to have to face the reality sooner rather than later.
I had a friend die of it when he was only 30. He had it for about 2 years from diagnosis. At 80, you’d think the prognosis would be pretty poor and you’d want to spend your time outside of work. But for people like McCain, work probably is life and he couldn’t give it up.
Briefly, Grimace are there any figures on the breakdown of PHON, preferences in WA.
I am sure Labor has a plan to appeal to them.
Also re. the republican flag mentioned earlier, I have seen it, albeit in a movie, “Event Horizon”, which included Sam Neil in the cast , the film was an Alien like scarefest.
In it, unmentioned is, Neil’s character nationality badge.
Which was the Australian flag, minus the Union Jack and with the Aboriginal flag.
You can see it sort of in this image:
As it said, it was completely unmentioned, and was just a background feature.
‘I want the job’: 22-year-old Greens Jordon Steele-John to replace Scott Ludlam in Senate
I have to admit, Rex, you are consistent with your anti-Bill message.
When the ALP gets in in the next election, will you still be calling for a replacement?
Yep, thought so.
kakuru @ #1264 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:08 pm
Diogenes @ #1295 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:59 pm
My friend was 50 and it took just over 18 months to go. The last 6 months was ultimate crap all the time.