Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. Barney,

    Undecideds would be the other 8%, I would assume, so how they split when pushed will be interesting.

    As I posted before I cannot find the last sky Reachtel breakdown on the Reachtel home page so whether there has been much actual movement in primaries and the allocation of undecideds is not yet clear.

    Anyway, I am sure all will become clear in due course. Not a biggie I would think.

    Cheers.

  6. Interesting to think that when Rudd was hacking away wildly at JG the polling showed double digit leads to the Opposition but now with Abbott do an even worse hatchet job on Turnbull we have a virtually line ball poll out today.

    The ALP would have to be concerned about their narrow polling lead.

    Perhaps a change of ALP leadership might provide for a substantial double digit lead in the polls.

  9. Jessica Roy‏Verified account @jessica_roy 5h5 hours ago
    My friend’s husband died of glioblastoma in AZ. They wrote a letter to McCain begging for his help. He advised them to move.

    Bill Maher once did a New Rules segment called the empathy gap, in which he pointed to numerous egs of how Republicans found their soul and heart only when tragedy struck them or their loved ones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVwFmdipfZg

    Hopefully McCain’s cancer diagnosis will give him pause for thought in the healthcare debate.

  10. Love how Rex pops his head above the parapet to screech ‘get rid of Shorten’ at every opportunity.

    Like P1 says, you’re a hoot!

  12. jenauthor @ #1260 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:00 pm

    Love how Rex pops his head above the parapet to screech ‘get rid of Shorten’ at every opportunity.
    Like P1 says, you’re a hoot!

    But to the substantive point – given the divisions within the govt, why do we have a poll out today showing the bare minimum lead to the Opposition ?
    Answer must be the Opposition message isn’t cutting through.

  13. Reachtel – Green 8%, ON 11%.

    Perhaps this reflects the Greens’ current ‘troubles’ and the fact PH has been fairly silent recently.

  17. ABC Friends‏ @FriendsoftheABC Jul 19
    We plan to target Peter Dutton’s seat at the next election because of his views on the ABC. It is marginal, and we have big support in Qld.

    Talk about being hit by a limp lettuce leaf! What are they going to do, hold a round of bingo to drum up support to unseat him?

  18. ‘But to the substantive point – given the divisions within the govt, why do we have a poll out today showing the bare minimum lead to the Opposition ?
    Answer must be the Opposition message isn’t cutting through.’

    I blame the ABC 😉

  19. Re polls, the latest Bludgertrack gives 53-47. I think that’s probably closest to the underlying situation. The Essential poll (this thread), at 54-46, is probably generous to Labor. Margin of error is about 2%, so consistent with 53-47. The Reachel poll (51-49) would also be within the margin of error.

    So, no big deal. Rex can be reassured that there’s no need for Labor to change leaders.

  20. On McCain, the glioblastoma is in his prefrontal lobe so it certainly could affect his planning and executive mental functions.

  21. Dio:

    There have been so many instances over the last few months of WTF? from McCain. Barely coherent ramblings in the Senate to name one instance, and after the last one people were actively mentioning ‘diminished mental capacity’ in its wake. Perhaps this diagnosis really does explain things.

  22. Re 2PP results in Federal elections, Labor last scored 53+ in 1983 (53.2 – Bob Hawke’s first win) and 54+ in 1946 (54.1 – when the Liberals were newly established from the ruins of their collapsed predecessor).

    So, Bill Shorten isn’t the Messiah, but even a Messiah could barely make 53, and he only did it once. On the other hand, a new and no doubt struggling “Liberal” – Country Coalition could still muster nearly 46.

  23. P1

    Rex’s appearances suggesting a change of Opposition Leader have an amazing correlation with the existing Govt not traveling well.

  25. Reachtel has Labor primary one point ahead of [Liberal + National] primary 34-33. In most polls that would have Labor further ahead than 51-49, so the 2pp in this poll is obviously affected by the lower than usual Green vote and perhaps the higher ON vote.

    Perhaps a “shy Green” factor at the moment, reflecting the unwillingness of some people to associate themselves with the embarrassment of two resignations due to incompetence.

  28. fess
    Interestingly, McCain has already said he wants to get back to work ASAP. I’m not sure how they will determine his mental competence to do so; it would be likely to fluctuate from day to day.

  29. Rex Douglas
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:54 pm
    Interesting to think that when Rudd was hacking away wildly at JG the polling showed double digit leads to the Opposition but now with Abbott do an even worse hatchet job on Turnbull we have a virtually line ball poll out today.

    The ALP would have to be concerned about their narrow polling lead.

    Perhaps a change of ALP leadership might provide for a substantial double digit lead in the polls.

    Never miss an opportunity do you Rex?

    You just don’t realise how ridiculous you sound at times.

  34. Dio:

    While McCain is very old there must be a precedent surrounding sitting members diagnosed with serious, potentially significantly debilitating illness and their ongoing performance as legislators.

  35. Skynews article – note level of support for renewable energy:

    A Sky News/ReachTEL poll shows the Coalition trails Labor 49 points to 51 on a two-party-preferred basis.

    The Liberal Party’s primary vote sits at 30 per cent while Labor’s has stayed consistent at 34 per cent, with the Greens polling at eight per cent while One Nation on 11 per cent support.

    The two-party-preferred result is within the margin of error, with the last Sky News/ReachTEL recording a 52-48 split in Labor’s favour.

    Malcolm Turnbull is ahead of Bill Shorten in the preferred prime minister stakes, leading his rival 54.5% compared with the Labor leader’s 45.5%.

    Renewable energy continues to enjoy widespread public support, with 75 per cent of respondents urging the government to support clean energy over coal.

    A majority of Liberal voters also endorsed renewable energy.

    More than half of those polled (56 per cent) nominated power and gas prices as the biggest cost of living expense.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/07/20/government-s-support-increases-in-latest-poll.html

  36. Rex – Owen Jones of the Guardian is a prime ar#ehole and full of himself.

    However his suggestion that Blair as Labour leader now would be not only good for Labour but also a very fortunate thing for the UK.

    He would do well in this environment. I can’t think of a better person to become UK PM now and to make the best of the current mess.

  37. doyley @ #1254 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:52 pm

    Barney,
    Undecideds would be the other 8%, I would assume, so how they split when pushed will be interesting.
    As I posted before I cannot find the last sky Reachtel breakdown on the Reachtel home page so whether there has been much actual movement in primaries and the allocation of undecideds is not yet clear.
    Anyway, I am sure all will become clear in due course. Not a biggie I would think.
    Cheers.

    Yeh, but the important thing is, it shows the Labor primary is more than the Government’s.
    34%-33%

    Discarding the undecideds a quick back of the envelope gives a 2PP of 53% – 47% for Labor so it doesn’t seem to be showing anything different from the others.

  39. fess
    There is a mechanism for the POTUS (the 25th Amendment) but I don’t think there is one for a senator. I’m unaware of us having one in Australia for an impaired PM or MP.

  41. Diogenes @ #1278 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:32 pm

    fess
    Interestingly, McCain has already said he wants to get back to work ASAP. I’m not sure how they will determine his mental competence to do so; it would be likely to fluctuate from day to day.

    I had a dear friend die from this a few years ago and the decline is heart breaking to witness. It’s not going to get better. McCain and his family need to pull up stumps and deal with the reality . He’s been a great American.

  44. Dio:

    I’m unaware also. But if McCain’s decline is swift he’s going to have to face the reality sooner rather than later.

  45. GG
    I had a friend die of it when he was only 30. He had it for about 2 years from diagnosis. At 80, you’d think the prognosis would be pretty poor and you’d want to spend your time outside of work. But for people like McCain, work probably is life and he couldn’t give it up.

  46. Evening all.
    Briefly, Grimace are there any figures on the breakdown of PHON, preferences in WA.
    I am sure Labor has a plan to appeal to them.

    Also re. the republican flag mentioned earlier, I have seen it, albeit in a movie, “Event Horizon”, which included Sam Neil in the cast , the film was an Alien like scarefest.
    In it, unmentioned is, Neil’s character nationality badge.
    Which was the Australian flag, minus the Union Jack and with the Aboriginal flag.
    You can see it sort of in this image:
    https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSEAEmkjZsdQJ8ilzQue4MweD0PI_sG8Cm2reCTEcv962PwL6oMfV6AWDBk

    As it said, it was completely unmentioned, and was just a background feature.

  48. Rex Douglas
    #1256 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    I have to admit, Rex, you are consistent with your anti-Bill message.

    When the ALP gets in in the next election, will you still be calling for a replacement?

    Yep, thought so.

  50. Diogenes @ #1295 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    GG
    I had a friend die of it when he was only 30. He had it for about 2 years from diagnosis. At 80, you’d think the prognosis would be pretty poor and you’d want to spend your time outside of work. But for people like McCain, work probably is life and he couldn’t give it up.

    My friend was 50 and it took just over 18 months to go. The last 6 months was ultimate crap all the time.

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