BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Good afternoon,

    Trouble in the greens kum bia bubble.

    Nine of Senator Lee R. Canberra collegues have written to the Greens national council ripping into her for sabotaging the negotiations with the government in Gonski. The nine have ripped her a new one. I just love it.

    Disunity to the right of labor and disunity to the left. Meanwhile Shorten and labor sail up through the centre.

    Cheers.

  2. zoomster @ #125 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 12:59 pm

    The Liberals have ventured into the social media world, with a ripper of a website —
    http://thefairgo.com/

    FMD who put that together for them?

    About the only positive thing I can say about it is that it is responsive (mobile optimised).

    What they’ve put above the fold (the part of the website you see when it opens) is a shocker. Too many words, meaningless images, you need to log in to get access, very little video.

    Obviously, the same organisation who is responsible for Porter’s social media did this website.

    The soundtrack that comes to mind when I look at this website is one of Shorten laughing, not a mean laugh, not a fun laugh, but a mocking laugh. Good luck to the L/NP if this is representative of how they are going run their social media campaign.

    To paraphrase what I once heard about the US parties in relation to the production of media, the Left have a big advantage in this area because the people who do these things are mostly left leaning.

  3. I meant to add it really shows how weak Di Natalie is if he folded simply because one senator opposed reaching agreement with the government.

    Cheers.

  4. The piece I wrote on the woes of the Greens, once again, because it’s relevent given the current circumstances:
    http://www.matthrkac.com/2017/current-greens-strategy-is-failing-to-cut-through

    Nice piece. I’ve been saying for a while now that the Greens under Di Natale’s leadership are not cutting through. But outside of thinking Di Natale is too bland and boring, I hadn’t thought about whether the party’s obsessive media management was managing them out of the media altogether. Interesting.

  5. GG – I’m well behind the conversation here but, as Briefly has said, many are now having real regrets about their Brexit votes and the ability of this government to be anywhere near even OK in negotiating an acceptable exit.

    I talked to a few voters I know in England and most thought Labour/Corbyn would get some votes simply because they were the ‘major’ least enthusiastic about Brexit.

    ——–

    I can’t recall who mentioned a ‘formal’ process for the UK to take back their ‘Exit Notice’ but I think there is not one some – all the UK would have to do is say ‘we have decided not to exit’.

    However, The UK has a different times, including when they first entered, demanded concessions and some were given.

    The other members would certainly take a ‘stay in’ decision now as an opportunity to remove some of these concessions and do it from a position of strength.

  7. grimace @ #152 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    zoomster @ #125 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 12:59 pm

    The Liberals have ventured into the social media world, with a ripper of a website —
    http://thefairgo.com/

    FMD who put that together for them?
    About the only positive thing I can say about it is that it is responsive (mobile optimised).
    What they’ve put above the fold (the part of the website you see when it opens) is a shocker. Too many words, meaningless images, you need to log in to get access, very little video.
    Obviously, the same organisation who is responsible for Porter’s social media did this website.
    The soundtrack that comes to mind when I look at this website is one of Shorten laughing, not a mean laugh, not a fun laugh, but a mocking laugh. Good luck to the L/NP if this is representative of how they are going run their social media campaign.
    To paraphrase what I once heard about the US parties in relation to the production of media, the Left have a big advantage in this area because the people who do these things are mostly left leaning.

    They have a very appreciative audience too. Just take a look at the comments and the likes for the comments. 😀

  9. …Former Greens leader Bob Brown last year called for Senator Rhiannon to step down and said she was suppressing the party’s vote in NSW.

    “When it comes to political white-anting, Lee is the Greens’ version of Tony Abbott,” he said this year.

    damning comments from Bob Brown

  10. I’m sure Peg will be on here soon alerting us to the Greens latest difficulties with links and all. I won’t hold my breath waiting.

  11. rex douglas @ #159 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    …Former Greens leader Bob Brown last year called for Senator Rhiannon to step down and said she was suppressing the party’s vote in NSW.
    “When it comes to political white-anting, Lee is the Greens’ version of Tony Abbott,” he said this year.

    damning comments from Bob Brown

    But what about Bill Shorten? Isn’t he to blame?

  16. briefly @ #116 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 12:29 pm

    For the little it’s worth, my take on things British is that disengaged/non-commited and younger past-Tory voters rallied to Corbyn because May and the Tories scare the s@#t out of them.
    May’s line on Brexit is not only incompetent, it exhibits both weakness and recklessness at the same time. UK voters must ask themselves “If the Tories run Brexit the way they run everything else, what hope is there?” This question answers itself and impels voters to choose the only available alternative and to invest a little in the virtue of the Labour leader and his crew.
    The antiques in the population stuck with the Tories. Why would’t they? They know they will be dead and buried before long. They like the “Up Yours, I’m better than you!!!” quality that goes with voting Tory. For everyone else – especially for the young – the idea of a May-Style Brexit, with all the questions it raises on the future of the economy, social stratification and harmony, national security and modern identity, must be very disheartening.
    The Tories are Labour’s main assets.

    They rallied to Corbyn because they’re sick of conservative austerity and warmed to his nationalistic/social democratic outlook.

    Anyway, May is a caretaker PM until Boris is ready to take over.
    One thing is for sure, with PM Boris and LOTO Corbyn, there will be a Brexit.

  19. Everyone has to go and check out Fair Go. The articles are beyond cringeworthy and it’s brilliant to observe the pathetic pretzels they make of themselve trying to portray their bankrupt agenda as “woke” (as one wag had it in the hilarious and unanimously derisory comments feed)

  20. Shiftaling:

    Amazingly they think that site is going to convince swinging voters. I can’t for the life of me imagine anyone politically disengaged avidly poring over an article with laissez-faire in the title.

  21. In the best tradition of salesmanship, Lib have called their web the one thing they’re not providing – a fair go. That’s the big con.

  22. Confessions indeed. The Lib true believers will think it’s a pile of shite and anyone else, well, they’ll think that too.

  23. Just had time to catch up with the papers.

    ‘Turnbull’s triumph screams the SMH, with a beaming pic of Mal the super duper Magnificent.

    Bloody lefty media.

  25. Max
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 1:18 pm
    Interesting that NSW has been Labor’s weakest State in Bludgertrack for weeks now – and by an appreciable margin. Wonder what’s going on?

    It’s worth remembering that Labor only needs six seats to take government. That would give them 75 and Band would definitely support Labor. Wilkie probably would too. Queensland and WA should easily get them over the line.

  26. Darn:

    Bandt yes, Wilkie maybe. He got shafted by Labor in the last minority Labor govt. Once bitten twice as shy. I imagine his vote would only be on confidence and supply.

  27. ides of march @ #176 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    Darn:
    Bandt yes, Wilkie maybe. He got shafted by Labor in the last minority Labor govt. Once bitten twice as shy. I imagine his vote would only be on confidence and supply.

    Wilkie sought a promise form Gillard that was really impossible for her to deliver on and she foolishly gave it. Blame on both sides there.

  28. When I first saw this I thought it was a story about a school in the US. It’s Turkey, but I’m sure there must be some schools in America which have done similarly.

    The New York Times
    20 mins ·
    Starting in September, a chapter on evolution will no longer appear in 9th graders’ textbooks because it is considered too “controversial” an idea, a Turkish official said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/world/europe/turkey-evolution-high-school-curriculum.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

  29. I know that Rhiannon apparently has a bad reputation as a “virtual commie” but was she the only Green prepared to stand up for public schools in negotiations over Gonski?

  32. Citizen,

    You are spot on.

    Rhiannon was the only one actually standing up for the real deal. It will interesting to see how the AEU reacts to finding out that despite the righteousness of Di Natalie and HY declaring how they had stood up and opposed the unfair legislation the only thing standing in the way of the greens throwing Gonski under a bus was the objection of one NSW senator. The other nine were all set to go.

    Cheers.

  33. Ch 7 news had a largely unsympathetic report on the Liberal conference, including sound grabs of Plibersec canning the Libs.

  34. Citizen
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 6:00 pm
    I know that Rhiannon apparently has a bad reputation as a “virtual commie” but was she the only Green prepared to stand up for public schools in negotiations over Gonski?

    Totally agree. It’s the other Green Senators who have it arse about. It’s an excellent time to be a protest party and instead the Greens are bending over backwards for the Libs.

  35. Real Time had an interview with Richard Painter, former White House ethics lawyer in the GWB years, which may cause raised brows in reaction to the ethics portion of his lawyer status, but my goodness the man is off the charts funny. And he is suing Trump.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Painter

    Scroll to around the 35min mark in the vid above to watch him.

  36. It’s an excellent time to be a protest party and instead the Greens are bending over backwards for the Libs.

    Being outpolled by PHON in the latest Newspoll must have stung.

  37. Confessions
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 6:36 pm
    Being outpolled by PHON in the latest Newspoll must have stung.

    Not to mention that they should want to be pushing politics to the left. They are missing the current mood entirely.

  38. I got my hands on a free copy of The West and unusually for The West, one of it’s more RWNJ jounnos Paul Murray has managed to make several excellent points regarding Brian Trumble and journalism in his p. 87 article, “PM plays to peanut gallery”.

    In relation to the mid winter ball:
    “Journalists, who are always more likely to serve the public interest when they are outsiders rather than insiders, are the most culpable in this charade, craning their necks to be seen with the rules.”

    “And the rulers play to that particular gallery by wanting to be seen to treat them as equals, when they are not and should not seek to be”.

    Later in the article he went on to say:
    “For example, do any Canberra reporters realise how compromised they are in the public mind by their incessant resort to unnamed sources, which only protects the gutless and tretcherorous?”

    “Don’t they see it makes a mockery of the genuine protection of sources which should be used judiciously and seriously for those taking risks in bringing vital information to the public.”

    Those paragraphs need to be printed on very large posters,you have a highlighter taken to them and be put up everywhere CPG journos congregate.

  40. The second problem concerns watering down the messaging to the point of playing small target politics. The whole idea behind watering down their messaging to seem less radical, on the surface, is to avoid negative media coverage that portrays the party as a bunch of ideologues – but the media do this anyway so there really is no reason why the party couldn’t explicitly campaign on a socialist platform, and dropping the social liberal shtick. The real reason behind the watering down of the message is so that it can draw voters away from the Liberal Party in the wealthy, blue-ribbon electorates in the inner east of Melbourne (such as Higgins).

    This strategy, however, has mixed success, and comes at a cost of alienating the greater number of working class people looking for alternatives to the Labor Party: people, who may otherwise be drawn to the Greens pushing a more radical platform, turning to far right populist parties because the former is failing to be a genuine and authentic alternative to the business as usual consensus by not pushing a more radical platform.

    This is true and perceptive, Matt Hrcac. The Greens water down their policies in an effort to appear respectable and mainstream and to reduce negative coverage. But that is a foolish strategy for a party that is widely perceived by the media and the public as radical. So the party may as well advocate genuinely radical policies that would make a more compelling pitch for votes than limp centrist compromises. Free health care for everyone, free education for everyone, taking infrastructure back into public ownership, paid work for everyone who wants it, a wider concept of what fulfilling paid work can be, If the Greens were on 40% of the vote, one could at least see the strategic sense in a “play it safe” posture to hang on to to what you’ve got. But if you’ve been on 10% of the vote for seven years, the smart play is to go big or go home.
    The Greens parliamentarians are making a big mistake by positioning the Greens as just another centrist party in a political landscape already over-populated with centrists.

  41. Question:

    The Greens have been too busy fighting internally these past few years to be bothered about the current electoral mood. That post linked here by a former Greens member gave me some pause for consideration as to their woes. It’s like the Greens are as divided as the Liberals but because they are a minor party there’s been no focus on their divisions except in a peripheral way on particular issues.

  42. Fess,
    Still have to catch up on recent posts.

    Nice to agree with Nicholas. I liked the Greens far more when they were pushing Left. They once got the odd senate vote, or a strategic first preference out of me. Not these days.

  43. I don’t remember there being a “democratic deficit” when the Liberals had the funds to outspend Labor at election time. So typical of these born-to-rule types.

  44. Nicholas..

    ..WOW!! I can’t believe I’m agreeing 100% with you!!

    “This is true and perceptive, Matt Hrcac. The Greens water down their policies in an effort to appear respectable and mainstream and to reduce negative coverage. But that is a foolish strategy for a party that is widely perceived by the media and the public as radical. So the party may as well advocate genuinely radical policies that would make a more compelling pitch for votes than limp centrist compromises. Free health care for everyone, free education for everyone, taking infrastructure back into public ownership, paid work for everyone who wants it, a wider concept of what fulfilling paid work can be, If the Greens were on 40% of the vote, one could at least see the strategic sense in a “play it safe” posture to hang on to to what you’ve got. But if you’ve been on 10% of the vote for seven years, the smart play is to go big or go home.
    The Greens parliamentarians are making a big mistake by positioning the Greens as just another centrist party in a political landscape already over-populated with centrists.”

  45. Lord Haw Haw — we thought the same about Abbott and his aggression got him the PMship. Let’s hope people remember how badly that went!

  46. Citizen..

    ..Social Media / GetUp / Independent news outlets are responsible for an outbreak of true democracy..
    ..this is anathema to ‘born-to rule’ Tories ..and MUST be crushed!!

  49. Question:

    The Greens avoiding the issue of AGW was it for me. Yes AS and SSM are important, but if your party’s name implies the planet’s health and wellbeing is your raison d’etre and you give no time to that, then sorry. I won’t give you my vote.

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