BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  3. guytaur @ #87 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 11:43 am

    GG

    Nothing shuts up dissenters like success.

    May has not had a crucial vote yet to test her numbers. No deal has been reached with the DUP. That was particularly noteworthy with the Queens speech going ahead.

    There are differences with Mr Shorten and Mr Corbyn. However in both cases they are gaining ground and both look like winning if another election is to be held today according to polls.

    The dissenters just go underground for awhile. The only permanency in politics is permanent interests.

    Those same polls had May winning a smashing majority and Corbyn being flame grilled at the start of the last election. Why would you conclude that current polling would be any more reliable as guide to the outcome of the next election?

    The main difference I see between Shorten and Corbyn is that Labor in Australia have been a united front, have spent years developing policies and positions that reflect the concerns of the community and have spoken to the community with a moderate voice.

  4. GG

    The paths are different there is no doubt about that. Howver saying Shorten is moderate and Corbyn is not is to buy into the rights narrative of what is moderate and to ignore Mr Shorten doing as Corbyn did.

    Putting inequality and a rejection of neo liberalism at the centre of their election campaigns.

    For the many not the few could have been Mr Shortens slogan as well.

  6. guytaur @ #104 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 12:10 pm

    GG

    The paths are different there is no doubt about that. Howver saying Shorten is moderate and Corbyn is not is to buy into the rights narrative of what is moderate and to ignore Mr Shorten doing as Corbyn did.

    Putting inequality and a rejection of neo liberalism at the centre of their election campaigns.

    For the many not the few could have been Mr Shortens slogan as well.

    It might also be my slogan when I next go the the pub!

  8. Yeah, if the right’s argument is that Shorten isn’t sufficiently left to be electable they don’t understand where elections in Australia are won or lost. Good on Corbyn for getting a new constituency out and about on polling day, in Australia they’d be compelled by law to vote anyway.

  11. Now here’s a thing. Turnbull imposes a bank tax and that’s, well, not a good thing altogether, but OK if it take a bit of the wind out of Shorten’s sails.
    Weatherill does the same in SA and the Murdoch press is apoplectic. The banks are in revolt. It’s the end of civilisation as we know it.

  13. confessions @ #110 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 12:20 pm

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 8m8 minutes ago
    Peter van Onselen Retweeted Sky News Australia
    Do you actually think he believes the piecemeal bits and bobs he’s legislated amount to much? Much less once in a generation reform?

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/878434286885511169

    PvO is taking the mickey out of MT. Never seen that before, he was a Turnbullist from the outset.

    He’s a Julie Bishopric!

  16. For the little it’s worth, my take on things British is that disengaged/non-commited and younger past-Tory voters rallied to Corbyn because May and the Tories scare the s@#t out of them.

    May’s line on Brexit is not only incompetent, it exhibits both weakness and recklessness at the same time. UK voters must ask themselves “If the Tories run Brexit the way they run everything else, what hope is there?” This question answers itself and impels voters to choose the only available alternative and to invest a little in the virtue of the Labour leader and his crew.

    The antiques in the population stuck with the Tories. Why would’t they? They know they will be dead and buried before long. They like the “Up Yours, I’m better than you!!!” quality that goes with voting Tory. For everyone else – especially for the young – the idea of a May-Style Brexit, with all the questions it raises on the future of the economy, social stratification and harmony, national security and modern identity, must be very disheartening.

    The Tories are Labour’s main assets.

  17. In reference to Geofrrey’s earlier comments. If you’re still around this evening I’ll happily explain to you why Sydney’s rail network needs radical surgery, why it needs metros and why EcoTransit are a bunch of ratbags.

  18. briefly,

    I reckon the Tories might pull the pin on Brexit.
    Years of rancorous negotiations, mashed up with a popular revolt at home doesn’t augur well for their re-election prospects.
    I’d be interested in your thoughts.

  21. You get young people on side and motivated in the same way you get any other demographic on side and motivated – by appealing to their their hip pockets.

  22. Zoomster

    The young or more inclined to wonder about things going badly. They are not sitting pretty with an income revenue or asset.

    Thats why they more readily accept being fair to people and ignoring the propaganda of selfishness from the right.

  27. ‘Needs-based

    Definition: An important concept which acknowledges that resources are limited, and that efficient, outcome-oriented use of funding is key to good government. ‘

    Er, no — that is NOT the definition of ‘needs based”. However, it is apparently the Liberal definition, which makes a whole lot of things suddenly make sense…

    http://thefairgo.com/threewords-needsbased/

  28. What legitimate purpose could there be in owning one of these devices?

    Novelty, probably. What legitimate purpose could there be in owning scale model cars, buildings, and similar hobby products?

  32. Interesting that NSW has been Labor’s weakest State in Bludgertrack for weeks now – and by an appreciable margin. Wonder what’s going on?

  37. Is this the Liberal conference where 2 years ago Turnbull said the Libs didn’t have factions and he was laughted at.

    Re. Getup, (Markjs), I like them and think they are a positive to Australian politics. They are able to get people involved in politics, there were members who were leafleting at the last election, I don’t think they were handing out HTVs but certainly progressive, left of centre policy details for the voters to consider.

    At some point they will conflict with Labor ( as it their right), an example is against the Labor state government in QLD.

    One benefit of Shorten as leader ( and lacking in the ‘messiah’ quotient), is that despite the polls I do not think any ALP member will take the next federal campaign for granted. This is not a criticism of Shorten.

  39. They are not capable of causing harm.

    We’ll…if you bash someone over the head with one, that would probably cause harm. A lucky hit with model of the Empire State building could even put someone’s eye out.

    Most objects are capable of causing harm under the right conditions.

    A better argument would be that the crossbow is designed to cause harm. But I wouldn’t accept that premise without knowing the muzzle velocity of the thing, and the mass of a toothpick.

    I tend to doubt that it’s capable of causing any nonsuperficial amount of harm with anything short of a direct shot to an eye. Unless the operator does something irresponsible, like loading sharpened tungsten rods instead of toothpicks. But then, what’s the legitimate purpose for owning sharpened tungsten rods?

  40. Interesting that NSW has been Labor’s weakest State in Bludgertrack for weeks now – and by an appreciable margin. Wonder what’s going on?

    The Sydney real estate bubble. It’s got a lot of people laboring under the illusion that they’re rich.

  42. a r @ #139 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    They are not capable of causing harm.

    We’ll…if you bash someone over the head with one, that would probably cause harm. A lucky hit with model of the Empire State building could even put someone’s eye out.
    Most objects are capable of causing harm under the right conditions.
    A better argument would be that the crossbow is designed to cause harm. But I wouldn’t accept that premise without knowing the muzzle velocity of the thing, and the mass of a toothpick.
    I tend to doubt that it’s capable of causing any nonsuperficial amount of harm with anything short of a direct shot to an eye. Unless the operator does something irresponsible, like loading sharpened tungsten rods instead of toothpicks. But then, what’s the legitimate purpose for owning sharpened tungsten rods?

    Classic NRA type arguments.
    I am surprised and dismayed.

  45. Anyone into horror stories? Try this.

    Prime minister in waiting?

    It would be a mistake not to take Peter Dutton MP seriously

    Immigration minister Peter Dutton is the government’s hard man. Taking over the mantle from Scott Morrison as the most prominent figure on the Liberal Party’s hard right, he is a polarising figure both among voters and within his own party.

    In some ways, the former Queensland cop acts as though he is the de facto prime minister, speaking with impunity on energy policy, marriage equality, the ABC and other issues outside his portfolio; he is often the apparent agenda- setter, with the rest of the government falling into line.

    He is also arguably the most powerful man in the government. As an immigration minister with unprecedented new power to overturn rulings of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, he makes decisions that are effectively beyond judicial review.

    In a recent report, Playing God: The Immigration Minister’s Unrestrained Power,the human rights group Liberty Victoria argues that the authority vested in Dutton puts him in a class of his own within the government: he has more unchecked power over individuals’ lives than any other minister, including prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

    With a Tony Abbott comeback looking even more unlikely than ever – the former PM is eroding his own small core of support by the day – Dutton has taken over as the undisputed leader of the right. Should there be a move against Malcolm Turnbull before the next election – and at this stage, despite the poll doldrums, this is looking highly unlikely – Dutton would be the preferred option.

    A more probable scenario, however, is that Turnbull will take the Coalition to a loss at the next election, at which point he will quit and Dutton will become the first Queenslander in the Liberal Party’s history to hold the post of opposition leader. Beyond that, anything is possible.
    —
    http://insidestory.org.au/prime-minister-in-waiting

  46. John Reidy
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    “Re. Getup, (Markjs), I like them and think they are a positive to Australian politics. They are able to get people involved in politics, there were members who were leafleting at the last election, I don’t think they were handing out HTVs but certainly progressive, left of centre policy details for the voters to consider.”

    Here are the HTV cards the GetUp member standing next to me at McLaren Vale Primary School polling centre was handing out last year..

  48. “The Fair Go” website

    The centrepiece is “Shorten/Labor lies”. That’s about it for excitement.
    I wasn’t inspired by the page!!

  49. Oh dear, I don’t think these commenters are giving the Lib’s answer to GetUp a “Fair Go” ..Lol!!

    Murray Holm · Education Specialist at Drivers Licenses NQ
    “What sort of dipshit site is this?”
    Like · Reply · 10 · 5 hrs

    Dani Shanring
    “This is #Liblame”
    Like · Reply · 3 · 4 hrs

    Fae Morgan
    “Is this supposed to be satire?”
    Like · Reply · 4 · 4 hrs

    Frances J Yule
    “Workers NEEDS versus Workers WANTS – Workers need to know they are going to go home after a day’s work injury free. Workers WANTS are the same as everybody elses. Workers NEEDS are a “fair go” when it comes to penalty rates, a livable income, and affordable housing. Workers are the backbone of any nation. They are the ones who keep the economy wheel greased and turning. Knocking unions is knocking those same people. If this page is simply about mocking then it’s to the denigration of the party that supports it; hopefully to its demise.”
    Like · Reply · 8 · 4 hrs

    Lin Esders
    “Needs-based – ensuring that the most disadvantaged kids get a ‘fair go’. It appears the only fair go you appear to support is one in which it’s ‘fair’ for the most advantaged to retain their educational privilege.”
    Like · Reply · 7 · 4 hrs

  50. Fairgo seems an interesting name for the website. Not sure how you could massage Liberal Party policies in certain areas to reflect a fair go message for most people.

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