BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/uber-bill-compromise-reached-with-greens/8642170

    The Victorian Government reaches an agreement with the Greens and the Sex Party on a bill to legalise ride-booking services such as Uber.

    Greens MP Samantha Dunn said the changes were crucial to winning their support for the legislation.

    “I think it’s a far improved bill than what it was,” she said.

    “What we see now is a $1 levy across the board that’s much fairer for passengers in Victoria.

    “It’s much fairer for the pensioners who rely on taxis to get to shops and health care centres.”

    The Government will also consider implementing a different levy in regional areas.

    “We were really concerned for people in the country having to pay for a levy that essentially was paying out people in the city,” Ms Dunn said.

  2. A shot in the dark.

    Isn’t Goodenough the name of the idiot general who ordered the Charge of the Light Brigade? Wonder if the WA senator (ex-Singapore?) is a descendant of such an illustrious leader.

  3. BiGD

    Well said on the language test.

    It’s the level that counts not the subject of the reading/discussion.

    The Govt has used this ‘conflation/distraction’ strategy before most recently in the Education Bill – where the fairness of the calculation of the split (the ‘formula’) of available funds is a thing separate from the total amount provided to fund schools. They were very successful in conflating these and making the time before the vote short.

  5. Greens’ Gonski 2.0 amendment to fund the needs of disability students voted down by both the Coalition and Labor.

    Both major parties, speaking out for children with disabilities in the storm around Pauline Hanson’s comments on special classrooms, voted against a Greens motion to establish a fund of at least $300m to meet the needs of students with disability.

  7. Trog:

    “Shorten, I fear, has one foot in this camp, and, in the current environment, until he can demonstrably pull his fucking foot out of it, he will fail to gain the type of popularity shown by Sanders and Corbyn.”

    I have a suspicion Shorten is more intent on winning Govt ..than becoming a losing populist..

  8. A11

    Labor has been right about social media. What they were wrong about was the ability to wreck by their enemies.

    It is taking being in power and the exposure of what policies are doing for the rich for people to understand how bad they are.

    This includes those on the right who have looked to other parties falling for the populist views of the likes of Hanson.

    Truth has hit them. They are still in denial that the new right has nothing to do with small government lower taxes. It takes time for that two decades of accepted narrative set up by Thatcher and Reagan to die

  9. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/24/gonski-20-is-a-win-for-coalition-on-policy-if-not-politics

    The AEU, for all its earnest campaigning through the organisation I Give A Gonski, could not give a Gonski for the upgraded version in spite of reports that behind the scenes they considered it better than they were letting on.

    Such was the heat in the debate that education shadow Tanya Plibersek fronted Sharkie and threatened to campaign against her in the seat of Mayo, to which the MP said go right ahead and help a Liberal win.

    Nick Xenophon said robocalls from the CFMEU against NXT began on Thursday night before the bill had even passed, telling South Australian voters that his party had cut school funding.

    For Birmingham’s policy work, Labor have the whip hand. The party is more trusted on education, notwithstanding its more recent efforts, and based on two-party preferred poll trends Labor remains more likely to win the next election.

    If that happens, it will have a chance to load up the school funding, and all power to their arm. But the acid test will be whether it unwinds the Gonski 2.0 funding model in favour of returning to what it had. My bet is that it will not.

  10. Markjs.

    Corbyn is a socialist. Not a populist. A winning won . May has still not got her support from the DUP.

    Defend Mr Shorten and rightly he saw this coming and made inequality the centre of his campaign in the last election. I see the change even as I disagree with Labor on its approach to Adani.

  12. Getup are progressive, but Labor shouldn’t assume their support.
    Mentioned earlier they are ‘targetting’ Dutton’s seat, as I understand how they work, the site puts forward a range of projects and members pledge to support them.
    So if they launch a particular campaign it is a reflection of their members and how they vote on the site.

  13. Andrew Charlton was the Rudd advisor who allegedly sent the email to Godwin Grech during the “Utegate” matter.

    “Until the Australian Federal Police raided Grech’s Canberra home and seized his computer and its electronic entrails, Turnbull and Murdoch’s newspapers sang from the same song sheet — or email — alleging that Dr Andrew Charlton, Rudd’s senior economic adviser, had sent a message to Grech, the Treasury official in charge of organising a financial guarantee package for the credit-squeezed car industry, requesting he give special treatment to a Brisbane car dealer named John Grant”.

    https://newmatilda.com/2009/07/21/real-utegate-scandal/

  14. Today’s PvO:

    Why does the cut in spending growth formally agreed to suddenly become irrelevant because a few years have passed since the deal was signed?

    Because the 2014 budget cuts to education never passed the parliament, Labor’s funding agreement signed, sealed and delivered with the states remained in place. Hence this package as a matter of simple logic is a second attempt to cut the spending growth Labor locked in, albeit by a smaller amount than the Abbott government sought to do.

    To cover up the cut (and to lend credibility to the announcement) Malcolm Turnbull wheeled out his friend, David Gonski, to attend the media conference announcing the cut, billing it as all about needs-based funding reform. I applaud the politics — it rendered the “give a Gonski” campaign by Labor and the unions redundant.

    However the announced package is both a cut and needs-based funding reform. Labor is being consistent by refusing to support the package, as is the Australian Education Union. While I personally like the needs-based elements of the package, they are being ­delivered alongside a cut to what the federal government and the states agreed to in 2013. I don’t see voters rewarding the government for scaling back education funding when it can’t or won’t get spending under control in other areas of the budget.

    Breaking the education funding deal between the commonwealth and the states is no different to locking in defence spending contracts, only to seek to reduce the outlay a few years later after a change of government. Just imagine how the Coalition would paint a decision by Labor to do that: a threat to national security, would be the accusation. Or ­imagine if the deal the commonwealth had done was with the business community rather than the states. Breaking it would be seen, ­rightly, as causing investment uncertainty.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/coalition-should-not-go-overboard-in-celebrating-gonski-reforms/news-story/4fc28b02d0103077473ff40a29b4167a?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Twitter

    He predicts the whole shebang is going to unravel as catholic schools ark up and dissent within the partyroom increases. A Pyrrhic victory he calls it.

  15. guytaur @ #60 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 10:50 am

    Markjs.

    Corbyn is a socialist. Not a populist. A winning won . May has still not got her support from the DUP.

    Defend Mr Shorten and rightly he saw this coming and made inequality the centre of his campaign in the last election. I see the change even as I disagree with Labor on its approach to Adani.

    Last time I looked, Labour UK were still about 60 seats short of a majority. So, tell me what did Corbyn win?

  18. martha farquahar @ #39 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 9:55 am

    Geoffrey

    3) re waters and breast feeding on floor while debating. why?
    no. over the top. not in class room, or in medical suite, or in boardroom, or railway office – so why parliament? child care ok –

    I would suggest that people with pathetic hang-ups about breast feeding should not be in the class room, or the medical suite, or the boardroom, or the railway office, or in parliament, or in child care.

    I couldn’t figure out if he was for or against.

  19. Its instructive to how the right divides the left with this Mr Shorten is no Mr Corbyn narrative.

    Mr Shorten has more in common with Mr Corbyn than people think.

    Sure Mr Shorten is not yet talking buy back the power grid. Thats because unlike Mr Corbyn Mr Shorten has not had the hard example of Austerity in fullnflight as Mr Corbyn has had in the UK.

    That reality makes a real political difference to how far Mr Shorten and Labor could move. A man who has Paul Keating as advisor is not going to ignore Mr Keating saying neo liberalism is dead

  20. alias @ #1324 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:15 pm

    C@tmomma .. Several reasons: first, Shorten – if he survives that long – will be the first Opposition leader in a long time to contest successive elections. Second, the next election will be the first federal election at which social media will be utterly dominant. Third, much of the result of the last election was down to the early election and Turnbull’s mis-steps so Shorten went under the radar. He may do so again – but it’s a big gamble.

    How to address this post…

    I’ll start by referring you to the recent WA election where Labor’s Mark McGowan was written off years ago as being unelectable, unsuccessfully contested the 2013 election as leader, yet went on to win the biggest Legislative Council majority in WA’s history with the third biggest swing in Australian election history (12.8%).

    The 2017 WA State Election was the first one where social media played a big role, and Labor demonstrated its mastery of campaigning using this medium, for example, McGowan revealed at a post-election presser how they used analytics from Spotify to target MMA fans with Labor’s message that they were going to legislate allow the sport. Successfully campaigning on social media has a lot of similarities to a traditional ground campaign, something Labor has alway been much better at than the L/NP.

    Further, the L/NP went to the 2016 federal election without a social media strategy, repeated the mistake at the 2017 WA state election, and there are no signs of them developing one despite their review of the 2016 campaign stating that they desperately needed one. Contrast this with Labor’s approach of bypassing the MSM and using Facebook and email to regularly communicate directly with voters using video and images to communicate their message in a continuous campaigining effort.

    I’m signed up to the email, Facebook etc of my local MP Christian Porter (Pearce) and comparing is his use of social media to Labor’s is chalk and cheese. Whoever is running his digital strategy has no idea how to effectively communicate using social media (I use social media marketing in the business I part own and do a lot of work with the copywriter who is responsible for producing or social media marketing).

    On your third point, Shorten and Labor campaigned on Turnbull’s weaknesses and exploited them ruthlessly, and I’ll point out to you that Labor pushed the L/NP and the hugely personally popular Turnbull to the brink of defeat despite the fact that the L/NP had the full support of a fawning media and that Australian’s don’t normally toss out first term governments.

    Labor, which I’m a member, would be mad toss Shorten out. He’s been 4 – 6 points up in the polls for nearly a year, despite the continued fawning over Turnbull by the MSM.

    I agree with you that social media will be a much more dominant force at the next federal election than the last one. The L/NP don’t have a social media strategy at the moment and you can’t build an effective social media campaign in 4 – 6 weeks. If the L/NP want to go head to head with Labor at the next election with the same sort of social media campaigning that they’ve been using so far, I say BRING IT ON!

  22. GG

    A massive swing against the Tories. A revival of Labour in Scotland.

    He took Labour from extinction to striking distance of forming government. In fact unless May gets the DUP deal up he could still be PM next week.

    All I am hearing about that is not sounding good for the Tories

  23. John Reidy
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 10:54 am
    “Getup are progressive, but Labor shouldn’t assume their support.
    Mentioned earlier they are ‘targetting’ Dutton’s seat, as I understand how they work, the site puts forward a range of projects and members pledge to support them.
    So if they launch a particular campaign it is a reflection of their members and how they vote on the site.”

    No argument from me in how GetUp works John ..except that they have a separate fund (to which I’ve donated a modest sum) specifically targeted at getting rid of Dutton..

    It’s perfectly true that GetUp does not support any political party, but rather progressive policies. In Mayo they distributed a how to vote card which covered three policy areas & which provided voting guidance for people according to which issue/issues the individual voter wanted to support..

    ..in NONE of them were the Liberal party put first..

    My point was that GetUp, although not aligned with a particular party, direct voters to the Greens/ALP/Independent (progressive) candidates ..and almost never to the Libs/Nats..

  24. The real reason that Shorten doesn’t need to be more Corbyn-like is that Australia hasn’t gone as far down the neo-liberal path as Britain has.

    The last time it was attempted was the 2014 budget. That cost both Abbott and Hockey their jobs.

  25. The courting of Lambie wrt Gonski 2.0:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gonski-20-the-story-of-how-the-government-got-it-done-20170622-gwwwuk.html

    A single mum on the disability support pension, Lambie couldn’t afford the fees, but St Brendan-Shaw allowed her sons to attend free of charge for three years.

    … With a Senate vote looming, Birmingham flew to Tasmania this month and spent half a day with Lambie at St Brendan-Shaw talking education policy.

    :::
    It looked dangerously close to the “special deals” Birmingham had railed against but, at a cost of just $50 million, it was worth it. The concession also helped get Lambie, the 10th and final vote required, over the line. Thanking Birmingham for taking the time to visit her state, she reluctantly announced: “I am swayed by what he’s doing.”

    And she held firm, despite the efforts of Catholic education lobbyists who camped outside her office on Thursday in a bid to change her mind.

  26. Guytaur..

    “A revival of Labour in Scotland”

    ..err, a revival of the Tories in Scotland, more like. Cost Labour the chance of a solid minority Govt, but..

  27. MarkJS

    Nah. Those former SNP voters moved back to the Tories because the SNP is too much to the left for them. They were never voting Labour.

  28. Guytaur
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 11:11 am
    GG

    A revival of Labour in Scotland.

    Not so much. The Labour vote in Scotland hardly moved. The SNP not dropped and mainly went to the Tories and LDP. Labour benefited from this but the main winners were the Tories, who have been able to cling to power because of their success in Scotland. Had the SNP held their seats instead of ceding them to the Tories, there would likely be a new Government in Westminster.

    In general, it’s worth noting that the vote share of both the Tories and Labour increased as support for UKIP collapsed and the SNP also lost ground.

  30. It’s clear that nationalist politics in Scotland has delivered power to the Tories. This has both deprived Labour of seats and allows the Tories to increase their strength.

    Nationalist politics is effectively pro-Tory.

  31. Markjs
    Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 10:41 am
    Trog:

    “Shorten, I fear, has one foot in this camp…

    …an entirely baseless fear…really, a smear more than a fear…

  32. Briefly.

    Nationalist politics was the abberation. It took people out of old voting patterns. Part of Corbyn’s success has been that con falling apart.

    Thats why his impact in Scotland was less. The SNP have a different politics to the Tories. Thus less flow back to Labour than in the South.

    Hhowever be in no doubt. Labour was being declared al but dead in Scotland. Corbyn changed that. Labours Scotland votes depend on how the SNP doing a lot of the same policies Labour would do in government goes.

  33. Guytaur,
    Labour might have won the romance and the atmospherics. But the Tories are still the government.
    However, one thing the UK election result showed was the absolute unreliability of popularity as a measure of supposed “electability”. It’s the reason I never get fussed about these metrics.
    I suspect that Labour lost in the end (and they did lose) because the rusted on Blairites didn’t show up on the day. This combined with the atrocious campaign run by May and the Tories saw Labour come close. But, still no cigar.

    Corbyn may be wearing new brand after shave. However, his party is still divided and his populist policies haven’t really been subject to scrutiny. This will now change as people and the media are now looking at them far more closely.

  34. This may be a little ‘sweeping generalisation’ in nature but I do believe the Libs (being generally older and less progressive in outlook) probably feel that social media as a tool for elections is a passing phase and one day soon things will go back to the way they were i.e. News mogul Murdoch will regain full control of the minds of all Aussies.

    Just looking at the numbers of the Vic LNP enrolments and average age of members being around 70, means their tactics will be aimed at a ‘dying’ demographic for the next election or two.

    Plus, from what I can see – Libs don’t do ‘grassroots’ campaigning well. They have aalways relied on propaganda and advertising.

    Last election the difference was noticeable and ALP almost fell over the line despite the heavy Murdochian propaganda and the injection of nearly $2M from their fearful leader for slick last-minute ads.

    That technique, I think was ramped up in WA and showed results.

    I suspect ALP ground forces will begin working actively a year out from the likely time of the next election (don’t forget Mal cannot jump too early because of the senate) so Labor has a minimum starting point to work with. In the meantime, with polls in ALP’s favour and soc media work being perfected, along with the town halls ….

  35. Wow that last paragraph was bad. Sorry.

    As the SNP is doing many of the same policies as Labour would do its going to be harder for Labour to get votes back. How the SNP goes will make the difference Labour Scotland can use to win votes.

  36. Scotland votes:

    Labour:
    2015 = 707,147 / 2017 = 717,007 (+9,860)

    Conservative:
    2015 = 434,097 / 2017 = 757,949 (+323,852)

    ..hardly a “Labour revival..”

  37. GG

    Nothing shuts up dissenters like success.

    May has not had a crucial vote yet to test her numbers. No deal has been reached with the DUP. That was particularly noteworthy with the Queens speech going ahead.

    There are differences with Mr Shorten and Mr Corbyn. However in both cases they are gaining ground and both look like winning if another election is to be held today according to polls.

  42. greensborough growler @ #83 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 11:36 am

    Guytaur,
    Labour might have won the romance and the atmospherics. But the Tories are still the government.
    However, one thing the UK election result showed was the absolute unreliability of popularity as a measure of supposed “electability”. It’s the reason I never get fussed about these metrics.
    I suspect that Labour lost in the end (and they did lose) because the rusted on Blairites didn’t show up on the day. This combined with the atrocious campaign run by May and the Tories saw Labour come close. But, still no cigar.
    Corbyn may be wearing new brand after shave. However, his party is still divided and his populist policies haven’t really been subject to scrutiny. This will now change as people and the media are now looking at them far more closely.

    So which of Corbyn’s polices don’t you like?

  43. Those who persist in predicting the imminent demise of Trump should remember that he has been written off every step of the way, ever since he entered the Republican primaries, and is still standing tall. The winning Republican lauded him after her election victory in Georgia this week. His opponents huff and puff, but cannot lay a glove on him.
    Prediction: He’ll still be there in four years’ time. Unfortunately.

  45. Those mini-crossbow “toys” that someone linked to awhile back are disappearing from eBay quite rapidly. If anyone wants one, now’s probably the time.

  48. bemused @ #92 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 11:51 am

    greensborough growler @ #83 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 11:36 am

    Guytaur,
    Labour might have won the romance and the atmospherics. But the Tories are still the government.
    However, one thing the UK election result showed was the absolute unreliability of popularity as a measure of supposed “electability”. It’s the reason I never get fussed about these metrics.
    I suspect that Labour lost in the end (and they did lose) because the rusted on Blairites didn’t show up on the day. This combined with the atrocious campaign run by May and the Tories saw Labour come close. But, still no cigar.
    Corbyn may be wearing new brand after shave. However, his party is still divided and his populist policies haven’t really been subject to scrutiny. This will now change as people and the media are now looking at them far more closely.

    So which of Corbyn’s polices don’t you like?

    The ones that caused Labour to lose the election.

  50. greensborough growler @ #98 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 11:57 am

    bemused @ #92 Saturday, June 24th, 2017 – 11:51 am

    greensborough growler @ #83 Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 11:36 am

    Guytaur,
    Labour might have won the romance and the atmospherics. But the Tories are still the government.
    However, one thing the UK election result showed was the absolute unreliability of popularity as a measure of supposed “electability”. It’s the reason I never get fussed about these metrics.
    I suspect that Labour lost in the end (and they did lose) because the rusted on Blairites didn’t show up on the day. This combined with the atrocious campaign run by May and the Tories saw Labour come close. But, still no cigar.
    Corbyn may be wearing new brand after shave. However, his party is still divided and his populist policies haven’t really been subject to scrutiny. This will now change as people and the media are now looking at them far more closely.

    So which of Corbyn’s polices don’t you like?

    The ones that caused Labour to lose the election.

    Very cute answer GG.
    And which were they specifically?

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