Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll comes in at 53-47 for the third time in a row, with both leaders down slightly on their net approval ratings.

The first Newspoll result in three weeks, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up two). The two leaders have recorded identical personal ratings of 32% approval and 55% disapproval, which in Malcolm Turnbull’s case means a three point drop on approval and a one point increase on disapproval, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one and up two. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 44-31, compared with 45-33 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1786.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding’s take on security concerns.

    This one from Matt Golding is a classic!

    Broelman uses some Muppets characters to highlight Turnbull’s problems.

    David Rowe with Gina and her toy boy.

    From Johannes Lean in The Australian. Any relation to Bill?
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6ef862b8bf507e186b44d182fd751a11?width=650
    Jon Kudelka with a Gonski quiz.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3b09a5943881fb7de4c7b57b5fbfee47
    Civility in America.

  2. At least ten members of Donald Trump administration have now lawyered up in Trump-Russia scandal

    By Bill Palmer

    Not only has Trump hired multiple attorneys to personally represent himself, he’s one of a double digit number of members of his administration who have now lawyered up, with some hires now happening in real time.

    In addition to Donald Trump’s hiring of at least three attorneys to represent himself in the Trump-Russia investigation, his vice president Mike Pence has also hired an attorney this week. Former Trump campaign advisers Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort lawyered up a long time ago. Trump’s own longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen also recently hired his own attorney. And that’s just the beginning.

    MSNBC reports that former Trump advisers Roger Stone, Carter Page, and Michael Caputo have also hired attorneys, and that Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has also done the same. And CNN reports that Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka, who is married to Kushner, has also lawyered up. That makes for a a total of at least ten people in the Donald Trump administration who have hired attorneys to represent them in the deepening and broadening scandal and investigation. More names are likely to be added imminently to the list.

  3. Anton

    The Lib submarine is now resting on the bottom. Now just a question of how long the air lasts.

    Not necessarily. Remember Das Boot.

  4. Thanks, Kevin.
    “There are two previous cases of the PM and LOTO having identical personal ratings.
    March 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 39-51
    Nov 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 34-55”
    And Ms Gillard probably never improved after that. Possibly the same for Mr Trumble.

  5. I think Turnbull could recover fairly easily if he did something that would actually get the publics attention and looked like he was leading rather than following his party. The budget is too abstract and energy policy is likely to complex (although both need to be put to bed or they’ll quickly poison any recovery), but something like Marriage Equality would likely do it.

    Whether or not Turnbull has the political capital in his own party (let alone the joint Coalition room) to actually do any of that is a different question all together.

  6. Thanks BK
    To extend the metaphor, Frydenberg is the sub’s engineer. If he can pump the bilge and come up with a decent energy policy, then Turnbull could use his last bit of air to blow ballast, shrug of the medusa tentacles of Abbott, and rise to the surface.
    If not, in submarine parlance, he is fucked.

  7. Queensland has been rated as a “contemporary hot spot” for land clearing and is on par with places like Brazil, a new study has found.

    The paper published today has found the parts of Queensland that have been cleared the most in the past, are also being cleared the most now.

    Remote areas including the Cape York Peninsula are also being cleared.

    Dr April Reside from the University of Queensland (UQ) said drastic changes are needed to save species and protect habitat.

    “Land clearing in Queensland is the highest that it has been in the last 10 years,” Dr Reside said.

    “We have 95 threatened species of animal, 12 threatened species of plant that are impacted by land clearing.”

    Dr Reside said practices such as thinning, where up to 75 per cent of vegetation in an area can be cleared, is regulated by the landowner.

    “It means that the mammals, the birds and the reptiles that are impacted by cat predation suddenly have nowhere to hide so they start to decline,” Dr Reside said.

    UQ researcher Dr Leonie Seabrook said Queensland had one of the highest land clearing emissions rates in Australia.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-19/land-clearing-rates-qld-need-to-be-lowered-new-study/8628524

  9. Are Labor people finally twigging to the ABC and Uhlmann?
    “Laurie Ferguson‏Verified account @LDTFerguson 16m16 minutes ago
    Trite Uhlmann tries analogy of 3 school bullies with Dreyfus, victim of ingrained anti Semitism & murdered Charlie Hebdo satirists. Pathetic”

  10. Lizzie
    Ultimately we need to adopt a system of total ecosystem management if biodiversity is to be maintained. This means landowners would have to submit a detailed plan before undertaking clearing or any form of environmental modification. Landowners have no more right to remove large areas of trees than they have dam all the rainwater that falls on their properties.

  11. Trog

    This means landowners would have to submit a detailed plan before undertaking clearing or any form of environmental modification.

    A fine goal, but I can’t see it happening.

  13. Elaugaufein

    I read a throwaway line in some article recently that Turnbull had made commitments about not allowing a vote on ssm as part of his leadership deal.

    …which shows the weakness of the man — in the position he was in then, he should have been the one laying out the terms on which he would take on the leadership.

    Having failed to assert himself then, it’s unlikely he’ll do so now, particularly when the RWNJs will use the failure of the ‘shift to the left’ in the Budget to change the polls as an indication that shifting to the left isn’t worth it.

  14. Lizzie
    A starting point would be to extend and upgrade the role and activities of groups such as Landcare. This could be a source of future jobs.

  17. BK

    Abbott smashed the budget for Landcare in order to fund his Green Army.

    Of course. Take the greenie money and apply it to a right wing social experiment.

  18. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    I would just like to thank Shellbell from the bottom of my heart because the article on Bob Carr’s almost Contempt of Court charge in 2004 led me to peruse the links to other articles down the side of that page and so, as a result of reading this article:
    ‘Budget surplus soars to $25 billion’
    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/10/1094530813667.html?from=storylhs

    …it has given me all the evidence I, or anyone, will need, to make sure that Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison can NEVER get away with talk about Corporate Tax Cuts stimulating growth in the Economy, which will cause the Budget to magically be repaired, again!

    Because these are the first words, in the first paragraph:

    Bumper company taxes and an expected improvement in jobs growth have prompted federal Treasury to upgrade its Budget forecasts for the next four years.

    Therefore, the corollary to that is, if you cut Company Taxes, you will only increase the Deficit! As Company Taxes sustain the Budget, as well as wages and jobs growth-two other areas where the Turnbull government has had anaemic success.

    It is a furphy, of the most egregious sort, therefore, to have the Treasurer and the Prime Minister claim that cutting Company Taxes will have a positive effect on the Budget numbers. As report, after report, after report, by economic modellers has shown, any effect of cutting Company Taxes is marginal, at best. Much better to keep them where they are and redouble efforts for compliance and collection.

  19. Does this poll actually show the party breakup of the support for Turnbull? I have yet to meet a coalition voter who supports him.

  20. @Zoomster
    I’m inclined to agree. But things can change, particularly with Abbott spending his time making himself look terrible* (alienating himself from Cormann), and Turnbull clearly buttering Dutton up. Brandis has also been unusually quite since his string of embarrassments, which I figured was someone telling him to keep his head down and he’ll get a nice sinecure somewhere after the head died down, but there’s rumours going around he’s trying to get a SSM policy together as a “legacy” thing so he might be preserving his political capital for that (I’m inclined to think its the fomer or both rather than the latter alone though).

    *Bernadi did the hardliners no favours either by defecting, which puts all their loyalty under scrutiny.

  21. Zoomster is right. Turnbull is in hock to uber conservatives, Matthias Cormann and Peter Dutton, for their support and the ballast which steadies his ship.

  23. Reading urbanwronski deepens my despair for any sanity in ‘our’ government.

    Also, is Abbott on testosterone or some other drug? He is so belligerent.

  24. The Jacobs report to Finkel is available online. It is interesting to read this from the forward:

    The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Jacobs is to assess the electricity sector impacts of policy scenarios to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the scope of services set out in the contract between
    Jacobs and the Client. That scope of services, as described in this report, was developed with the Client.
    In preparing this report, Jacobs has relied upon, and presumed accurate, any information (or confirmation of the absence thereof) provided by the Client and/or from other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, Jacobs has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change.

    In other words, in no way was Jacobs independent.
    I am sure there will be much to review in the Jacobs report, and compare with Finkel’s conclusions.
    http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/emissions-mitigation-policies.pdf

  25. @C@Tmomma
    You can’t take one instance of tax policy adjustment as having a constant effect. The Laffer curve is correct in that there comes a point where raising taxes will reduce revenue due to economic contraction. The problem with the economic doctrine coming from it, is that they assume (or pretend) that tax cuts will never decrease revenue, which is bollocks. Depending on the current level of tax (and the global competition for investment) tax tax cuts or rises can both have net negative or positive outcomes, although it’s unlikely that anywhere in the Anglosphere has taxes high enough that cuts are likely to give significant positive effects, we’ve been in a political environment where tax cuts are much easier than tax rises for like 35 years now.

  26. I reckon a proper policy on emissions reduction would give the LNP an election winning lead. That there is no way they can do it says all you need to know about them.
    Captive to their funding sources and irrational ideology.

  28. Any hints on which direction his concessions would lay in BK ? ie is he upset about the Catholic Schools taking a hair cut or the overall funding amounts ?

  29. It is a furphy, of the most egregious sort, therefore, to have the Treasurer and the Prime Minister claim that cutting Company Taxes will have a positive effect on the Budget numbers.

    When you take in less money you have less money to spend. Such a simple concept yet one which continually eludes rightwingers.

  31. Had a look, he’s upset about the Catholic Schools funding proportion. Yeah, that’s going to fuck things over pretty royally for the Government. It’s still possible either with or without his support but it certainly makes things harder.

  32. The mainstream finance press has lost it. While the CPA has been running big surpluses under Alex Malley, The Australian and The Australian Financial Review have both been making losses. They are beholden to the big end of town and hardly try any more, except when there is a second-tier scalp to be had.

    It is lily-livered and it is a sad abrogation of the duty of journalists and editors to hold power to account.

    Then there is the hypocrisy. While flagellating Malley week-in week-out for being paid too much and failing to disclose his pay, Joe’s own boss, Fairfax CEO Greg Hywood, was secretly gifted millions in share options.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/correcting-fairfax-gossip-column/

  33. The very idea that Turnbull is a great leader unfairly held back by his own is perhaps the stupidest idea in Australian politics. Even Senator Roberts wouldn’t fall for something so demonstrably false. Oh yeah the MSM is on the idea like a rash, and even Mumble seems to subscribe but for Malcolm Turnbull this is just about Malcolm being leader, he doesn’t actually want to lead, nor does he have anything, other than Malcolm, he believes in to lead / work towards. Gretch, Climate change, the Republic, they are all just tools he uses to fool people. Oh and yes he is a good conman, but really as I said at the start not even Senator Roberts would fall for this pathetic old con.

  36. …’nice’ as in providing lots of fuel for discussion — the events themselves are, of course, not nice at all…

  37. Remember Das Boot.

    Where they finally made what they thought was safe harbor…….and got the living crappers bombed out of them?

  38. …if you bully someone to the point where they kill themselves, and that is a stated intention of your behaviour, is that manslaughter?

    I think it is. Just because you didn’t attack them physically doesn’t mean it wasn’t an attack.

    Indeed, if crime is determined by intent, someone whose intention is to persuade you to kill yourself is arguably guilty of murder.

  40. If not, in submarine parlance, he is fucked.

    Teh Lib boat has had bilges sloshing full of toxic shit for so long they are now suffering serious corrosion problems and their batteries a fwarked. Hull unsafe simply needs to be scrapped, but they appear to stupid to realize it.

  41. zoomster:

    Yesterday I linked a video interview with an online troll, who admitted they are organised and deliberately incite people online who have gone through hard times, getting off on making them hurt even more – he even admitted he loved it when they responded.

    It’s not exactly the same as the girl and her texts but the outcome can have the same effect.

  42. Yesterday I linked a video interview with an online troll,

    I saw that. Made me think that those sometimes accused of trolling here are of little consequence and far from the evil scum in this article. That guy has serious mental health issues and is actually a definite danger to people around him.
    There is trolling, and Trolling i guess.
    But good on the journo for calling it out as a fundamental thing and not just “someone trolled me”.

  44. Elaugaufein,
    Thanks for your reply. I do realise that, when Company Taxes are too high, and even now in Australia when they are just a bit higher than elsewhere, the companies themselves find multifarious ways to avoid paying their fair share, plus change their domicile to overseas locations where they don’t have to pay as much tax. However, my point was that I believe we have the levels about right in this country and that a cut in Company Taxes will do virtually no good at all, and some harm when you consider the health of the Budget and the provision of social services. Cutting Company Tax is just the UK ‘Austerity’ palaver warmed over for an Australian audience.

  45. Verrender’s ABC article has this nice bit on hyper hypocrite Bernardi :

    What a surprise, however, to learn that ex-Liberal and noted anti-science activist Cory Bernardi has just plonked a bunch of solar panels on the roof of his Adelaide home.

    He was quick to reassure followers, however, once the news leaked out, that he was still a non-believer.

    “Don’t fret, I haven’t drunk the renewable energy Kool-Aid,” he told the Australian Financial Review.

    “I’ll leave that idiocy to the Labor, Liberal and Xenophon crew.”

    Apparently, he just wants to ensure he has a reliable source of electricity.

    That’s like the Minerals Council ads promoting “clean” coal, shown recently on TV. There was an aerial shot of the factory belonging to a supplier of coal mining equipment. The roof was covered in a mass of solar panels!

  46. @Zoomster
    Yeah, it seems a stretch to call it manslaughter when someone takes action with the intent to kill someone even if the instrument is a third party. I guess the closest case I can think of is hiring an assassin to kill someone. In this case the assassin would also be the victim.

  47. Having failed to assert himself then, it’s unlikely he’ll do so now, particularly when the RWNJs will use the failure of the ‘shift to the left’ in the Budget to change the polls as an indication that shifting to the left isn’t worth it.

    This is the nub of it. As noted on budget night Labor lite Trumble played his joker. He needed that to win a hand and get back in the game. Instead he couldn’t even win a trick.

    The right won’t be letting him wander off reservation again. They have the ‘proof’ that it doesn’t work and the rwnj media echo chamber will reinforce the message.

    Dutton and Corman might be protecting Trumble’s right flank presently, but there is a massive slice of self interest involved there. Especially from Potato head. As soon as they assess their interest is better served by abandoning Brian they will.

    You can see the right have broken rank on Finkel. Trumble will cave. As insane as Abbott is he still has plenty of loons on his crew on this one and they have money and media mates.

    Now the education fractures are starting to come out as it was easy to predict they would. Liberal members who have fought for private education over funding aren’t going to try and defend massive cuts to their base when it didn’t even buy them a budget bounce. They know Shorten and Plibbers have cut their grass here.

    Brian dipped his toes into the edge of the sensible centre pond. It didn’t shift the polling. Further heresies won’t be tolerated. Trumble will happily put the ring back through his nose to try and delay the visit to the abattoir as long as possible.

  48. From a news worthy prospective, at least for the ABC, it seems clear that unless there is an election in the air, a hung parliament, or leadership issues, polls are not given much time/recognition – especially in the depth of an Canberra winter a few days before the break for Parliament.
    This morning on ABC Radio National, the latest Newspoll was referred to briefly while headlines from the pulp media were given a run through. The Newspoll figures were mentioned in passing with a quaint “now showing 47-53 to the government”. It might be my imagination but normally the higher figure is put first. Not to worry.
    In the meantime, later in the programme, discussion took place on current issues before Parliament and related issues and I don’t think that Labor/Bill Shorten was mentioned once.

  49. Birmingham’s Gonski 2.0.1 is firming up to be a right royal schemozzle. Apparently PHON will support anything but some Liberals are unwilling to support the changes made to seduce the Greens, who themselves are still internally divided.

    And via the Guardian live blog, a journo’s corny tweet:

    Paul Osborne AAP‏Verified account
    @osbornep
    Greens party room meeting has begun. Is Gonski 2.0 gonski or hereski to stayski?

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