Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll comes in at 53-47 for the third time in a row, with both leaders down slightly on their net approval ratings.

The first Newspoll result in three weeks, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up two). The two leaders have recorded identical personal ratings of 32% approval and 55% disapproval, which in Malcolm Turnbull’s case means a three point drop on approval and a one point increase on disapproval, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one and up two. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 44-31, compared with 45-33 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1786.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. Dessert Queens’ Lander – your post is difficult to reconcile with the numbers. They say nothing much has happened, except possibly a consolidation of the One Nation vote or, less certain, a small drift from the Greens to Labor, although that’s probably a statistical blip.

  6. Turnbull is his own worst enemy.
    He cultivated himself as a figure of moderation and kindness of spirit. Different from the confrontational &idealogical mongrels that Abbott & Co were.
    A figure who believed in the science of climate change and of marriage equality and gave the impression that if he became head honcho things would be calmer, adults would be in charge and the Libs would sail off into the sunset with the electorate happy to vote for him and their party for decades to come.
    His non stance on climate and SSM has shown the public that he is not a leader in control of his party but merely a sheep being led.
    The Australian electorate don’t like politicians who say they passionately believe in one thing and then do the complete opposite.
    Turnbull should of cut Abbotts and the RWNJ’s nuts off as soon as he became leader, he didn’t. He’s now paying the price.

  7. Greg

    And all of this was entirely foreseeable – posters here regularly challenged Turnbull acolytes to support their statements that he would do all these things with actual evidence that he would. We knew from his past incarnation as leader that he would buckle to the Right. The only difference this time is that it looks like he’s doing so willingly.

    I had no idea why the CPG kept plugging Abbott and continued to plug him long after it was obvious that their readers (who aren’t Canberra insiders and therefore are meant to wait to be told before they form opinions) had decided he must go. I don’t understand their touching faith in Malcolm, either. I would have thought that any group of professionals would have enough self respect not to fall for the same trick twice.

  8. “Does anyone know what time period Abbott’s infamous 30 Newspolls spanned?”

    From memory, Abbott’s honeymoon, such as it was, ended before Christmas 2013 as broken promises started coming thick and fast. I think he stayed behind until his eventual defenestration in September 2013. He might have had a positive poll before the “Commission of Audit” report issued shortly before the 2014 Budget, but none afterwards. So, my estimate – about 18-21 months.

  9. Does anyone know what time period Abbott’s infamous 30 Newspolls spanned?

    The first was May 2-4, 2014, and the last was September 3-6, 2015. Turnbull’s present losing streak began with the first Newspoll after the election, which was August 25-28, 2016.

  10. Steve777,

    My post was mere sarcasm I can assure you.

    The only relevant point to make is that Labor has steadily built the primary figure up to 37%. Which I do think is noteworthy. A nice slow upward movement will create a solid foundation on which they can conduct an election campaign when that time comes.

    I care little for where these votes are coming from.

  12. Zoomster………
    I was commenting more along the lines of the impressions leaders give the electorate before they are leaders.
    Turnbull and his appearances on Q & A, leather jacket,the voice of reason, a “saner” voice in the Liberal Party.
    The average voter does not engage with politics as much as those on this blog. They might watch Q & A after the kids have gone to bed,or catch a morning news show while getting ready for work and impressions are everything.
    It’s the same as K Rudd used to cultivate his image on “Sunrise” before he became leader. As soon as he was seen as a more viable leader Beasley,Crean,Latham…etc he was voted in as leader and almost immediately Labor took over 1 million votes off the Howard coalition.
    As soon as Turnbull became leader the polls totally reversed his way. But he has blown it. He ditched the things people respected about him,his differences to Abbott. His action since have shown he is exactly the same.

  13. The Coalition’s leads in the first three Newspolls after the 2013 election were as follows:
    25-27 October 2013: 56-44
    8-10 November 2013: 53-47
    22-24 November 2013: 52-48
    After that, there were 36 Newspolls up to Abbott’s demise, in which the Coalition’s only lead was a 51-49 on 4-6 April, 2014.

  16. From previous thread.
    confessions @ #734 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    Mark Latham has completely lost the plot. I mean, seriously, WTF?

    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Time to elect our judges in Australia. Let the people decide on law enforcement. Rid all states of elite time-serving Leftie judges.
    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Well done @HumanHeadline in standing up for the rights of parliament over unelected, Left-wing, elitist, arrogant Victorian judiciary.

    As if we needed conformation that Latham was off the planet.

    Who in their right mind would even think electing judges was a good idea.

    It’s up there with allowing politicians to draw their own electoral boundaries.

    Is there any place that stupid?

  17. Mari
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:21 pm
    Confessions
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm
    Mari:

    You’re in Greece? I thought you were somewhere else this time?

    Sorry out walking as a bit cooler today. Was in Chile Argentine Brazil Patagonia but now in Greek islands to thaw out, especially after Patagonia. Milos now then Serifos , UK home beginning of August

    from previous blog

  18. more importantly there was Turnbull explaining that Abbott completely fucked the economy up the arse like a turkey. Apparently there was very little growth and things were starting to stagnate. Turnbull explained he had challenged because he was the person to fix it.

  19. There are two previous cases of the PM and LOTO having identical personal ratings.
    March 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 39-51
    Nov 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 34-55

  20. citizen @ #26 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    Oz headline tells it as is is – no fudging with the usual “Turnbull still more popular PM” headline.

    Newspoll: Turnbull fails to turn corner
    Newspoll results – exclusive to The Australian.
    9:30PMDAVID CROWE
    Labor has cemented its gains in voter support after weeks of argument over school funding and energy security.

    Cementing their !@#$@#$^% gains!!! This is Newspoll !@#$$%^ 16 where they are ahead. The friggen concrete cured long ago!!

  21. kevin bonham @ #69 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:57 pm

    There are two previous cases of the PM and LOTO having identical personal ratings.
    March 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 39-51
    Nov 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 34-55

    Kevin or William,
    I realise it’s not a very significant measure, but what is it worth being the PM in the preferred PM figures?

  22. Desert Qlder – sorry, didn’t pick up the irony.

    Re electing judges – seems like a bizarre idea. I would not feel qualified to participate, but no doubt lots of shoutback radio fans and Murdoch tabloid readers do. Maybe we should just replace the judiciary with panels of talkback hosts and Newscorp columnists.

  27. Barney: All else being equal (ie voting intention 50-50) being the incumbent PM is worth about a 16 point pref-PM lead on average. This drops about 5 points for every 2PP point the government is behind, so Turnbull’s recent pref PM leads are surprisingly large given the 2PP difference.

  28. Electing Judges is a bad idea. Judges have a duty to make the legally correct ruling, regardless of its popularity with voters or donors. It is rare outside the USA, with good reason. Mark Latham is on the wrong side of a lot of arguments these days.

  31. kevin bonham @ #77 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 12:26 am

    Barney: All else being equal (ie voting intention 50-50) being the incumbent PM is worth about a 16 point pref-PM lead on average. This drops about 5 points for every 2PP point the government is behind, so Turnbull’s recent pref PM leads are surprisingly large given the 2PP difference.

    Cheers KB.

  32. Everything in this poll and the Essential seems to have moved within the MoE since the last one. I wouldn’t attribute any movement yet as a result of recent events until we see more changes.


  35. zoidlord
    Monday, June 19, 2017 at 5:20 am
    Nothin on the ABC…. About Newspoll..
    t
    To be fair to the ABC; the night shift has always been saner than the day shift. The news changes to nonsense at about 7 am.

  38. Trump Has A 7 AM Meltdown And Proclaims Himself More Popular Than Barack Obama

    Trump was alone with his thoughts at 7 AM and was on the President’s mind wasn’t any number of challenges facing the United States and the world, but how he was secretly more popular than Obama.

    Trump tweeted at 7:02 AM on Sunday:

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump
    The new Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in the 2016 Election, just out with a Trump 50% Approval Rating.That’s higher than O’s #’s!

    Trump has never had a 50% approval rating in the general election or as president. In fact, his numbers are continuing to drop.

    It is profoundly disturbing that at 7 AM, Trump isn’t worried about leading America, but is instead nursing hurt feelings due to America liking Obama more than they like him.

    Donald Trump will never be Barack Obama, and that fact is literally keeping him awake at night.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/18/trump-4-meltdown-proclaims-popular-barack-obama.html

  39. Adam Schiff Drops A Bomb And Confirms There Is Evidence That Trump Colluded With Russia

    Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) confirmed during an interview on ABC’s This Week that there is evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia and that the President obstructed justice.

    Schiff has gradually moved his description of the investigation to indicate that the committee is seeing evidence that Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia and that the President is obstructing justice. These are small statements that equal big developments. Time is not on the side of Donald Trump, and the more investigators dig, the more they appear to be uncovering about Trump and Russia.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/18/adam-schiff-drops-bombshell-confirms-evidence-trump-colluded-russia.html

  40. Trump’s Lawyers Lose Their Minds As White House Gives Up On Stopping His Insane Tweets

    The White House has given up on trying to get Trump to stop tweeting insane things, and as a consequence, Trump’s lawyers are pulling their hair out as the President is impossible to defend.

    Since the country has a White House that is so afraid of Trump’s tantrums when his Twitter toy is taken away that they won’t stand up to the President, it is only a matter of time until the whole administration collapses in on itself.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/18/trumps-lawyers-lose-minds-white-house-stopping-insane-tweets.html

  41. Senator Confirms That Trump Is Under Investigation For Collusion With Russia

    Donald Trump hasn’t been cleared. According to Sen. King, the Senate Intelligence Committee is only 20% of the way to being done with the investigation into whether or not the Trump campaign colluded or cooperated with Russia.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/18/senator-confirms-trump-investigation-collusion-russia.html

    Trump’s claim that no evidence was found of collusion was more fake news coming directly from the commander in chief.

  42. Shorten has it a bit hard on the Preferred PM stakes I think.

    1) Turnbull is actually a pretty good public performer and has a fairly long term public image, Shorten was mainly a behind the scenes player and while he can do public performance, he more often comes off as staged or clunky (zinger!). This (where the PM and LOTO have significantly different initial public profiles) hasn’t really been a thing that happened a lot since the rusted ons started coming off in the mid 90s.

    2) Also Turnbull’s personal popularity probably remains bolstered by the ongoing perception he’s being kneecapped by his own party, in practise that allows him to do things that satisfy the conservative base without suffering the full snapback from the center and left. Shorten on the other hand is perceived as a union hack, which has the opposite effect, there’s a block of voters who will always be deeply suspicious of him as a result, no matter what he does.

    It probably doesn’t matter a lot since Preferred PM doesn’t seem to have much effect on voting when it’s not having an obvious effect on 2PP.

    As to the Greens, they should act in accordance with their goals and policies and if that means sometimes working with the Coalition, so be it. There’s little merit in functionally being an extension of the Labor party that committed Laborites will always scorn and loathe irrelevant of their actions.

  44. I can understand the GG’s ‘cementing their lead’ charactisation, yes Labor has been ahead for a while now at around this figure, however for the last 5 weeks the Government has done everything ( with one exception) to improve their polling. How many times have you heard about company tax cuts since the start of May?

    In this environment Labor’s vote has stayed solid. Perhaps we could say their vote has ‘cured’ (apologies to any structural engineers).

    The exception mentioned above is of course a rational, also popular, energy policy.

    In the SMH Peatling quotes Frydenberg :
    “We have to proceed carefully, and I’m not going to be rushing the Commonwealth’s position or in any way pre-empting the party room’s deliberations of this issue because my colleagues come first, and we need to work out what our position is on the Finkel report,” Mr Frydenberg said.”

    He said it, his “colleagues come first”. He and Turnbull know any interview they given will be scanned closely by the right to detect any ‘unorthodox ‘ thinking, so they have to say the right thing.

  45. John Reidy

    his “colleagues come first”.

    I picked up on that emphasis too, and am singularly unimpressed. What happened to the time when a minister would strongly defend his own portfolio and policy, and it was the PM’s job to negotiate the final position?

    Difference is that Josh does not really have a strong policy position on AGW, just a wish for political survival?

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe in The Australian writes that the Coalition is struggling to climb out of a dangerous slump after trying to win back voters on school funding and energy prices, with the government trailing Labor by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-fails-to-turn-corner-with-power-battle/news-story/79ce414773ab471673e3cf1e1935f1f6
    More exposure of Chinse influence in politics in Australia. This time with a NSW Labor MP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-mp-filed-documents-for-billionaire-alp-donors-chinese-business-association-20170618-gwtg5b.html
    Investigative journalist Michael West writes “As billions in black money from China continues to flood into property markets, the global Financial Action Task Force has put Australia on a watch-list for failing to comply with money laundering and terrorism financing reforms. Canberra has been dragging the chain for nine years while the powerful lawyers, accountants and real estate lobby groups keep successive governments mired in a consultation process.”
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australia-on-watch-list-as-china-billions-pour-into-property/
    Outspoken retail billionaire Gerry Harvey says the market has overestimated how quickly Amazon could get land in Australia, and start delivering quickly. Could these turn out to be famous last words?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/gerry-harvey-says-amazon-expansion-will-be-slower-than-expected-20170602-gwj7dg.html
    Coalition Ministers have all gone to ground when it comes to defending the Three Stooges.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-ministers-silent-as-hinch-backs-trios-court-attack-20170618-gwtcmm.html
    Through Mark Dreyfus Labor is pursuing Malcolm Turnbull over comments he made last week endorsing criticism of the Victorian judiciary by three of his ministers – interventions which have now exposed them to contempt charges.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/18/turnbull-must-explain-comments-endorsing-ministers-criticism-of-judiciary-says-labor
    Urban Wonski says that a life-threatening political and constitutional crisis is brewing for the Turnbull government this week as three Ministers of the Crown face contempt proceedings in Victoria’s Supreme Court.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/06/18/turnbull-government-in-crisis-as-ministers-face-contempt-charges-and-abbott-stages-a-revolt-over-finkel/
    The type of cladding used on London’s Grenfell Tower is banned in the UK, the US and Europe, a top-ranking British official admitted yesterday. Jail terms will be served I would now expect.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/grenfell-tower-fire-government-minister-admits-cladding-was-banned-in-the-uk-20170618-gwtodn.html
    Bill Shorten is calling for an urgent parliamentary hearing into the cladding material used in Australian buildings after London’s deadly Grenfell Tower fire. The Opposition Leader believes a Senate committee inquiry into non-conforming building products should broaden its scope after the high-rise tragedy that has killed at least 58 people and put many dozens more in hospital.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-pushes-for-cladding-inquiry-after-grenfell-tower-fire-20170618-gwtfk7.html

  47. Section 2 . . .

    Grenfell protesters are right. Regulations do save lives.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/18/brexit-europe-eu-golden-decade-merkel-macron
    The vast majority of Australians say the world is becoming more hazardous and their confidence that America will play a constructive role in global affairs has plummeted since Donald Trump became president.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/nine-in-10-australians-agree-the-world-has-become-more-dangerous-20170618-gwtgyk.html
    Tom Switzer defends Trump from accusations of being a fascist by saying no he’s not – he’s an incompetent oscillator!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-is-just-an-incompetent-oscillator-not-a-fascist-20170617-gwtba6.html
    The judiciary, legislative and media have all helped keep Trump in check. But it’s the residents of the United States whose response will matter most in the end. How to deal the final blow.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/18/resistance-victories-trump-mounting-final-blow
    Meanwhile Trump is reportedly so incensed at claims he is being investigated for obstructing justice in the Russia election probe that he has started screaming at television sets in the White House.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/06/18/donald-trump-yelling-tv/
    The French president Emmanuel Macron’s new centrist movement has won a large majority in the French parliament, according to the first official results. It looks like he’ll get 355 of the 577 seats.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/emmanuel-macron-marches-on-majority-french-parliament
    Merkel and Macron are planning for a ‘golden decade’ and won’t let Brexit negotiations derail them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/18/brexit-europe-eu-golden-decade-merkel-macron
    Michelle Grattan wonders whether the Greens’ education spokesperson Sarah Hanson-Young will let teachers’ unions bully er party over school funding.
    https://theconversation.com/will-the-greens-let-the-teachers-union-bully-them-over-schools-funding-79645
    Australia’s largest privately owned cold storage company has been stopped from transferring workers to a new labour-hire company to avoid negotiating a fresh enterprise agreement. Shades of the old Patricks Stevedores conflict here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/cold-storage-company-blocked-from-locking-workers-out-of-bargaining-20170529-gwfdq6.html

  48. Section 4 . . .

    Amanda Vanstone writes that we should demand better from our politicians – and ourselves.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-should-demand-better-of-our-politicians-20170617-gwt1x4.html
    Adele Ferguson explains that the car leasing giant McMillan Shakespeare is to be hit with an $80 million class action alleging unfair and unconscionable conduct and misleading and deceptive conduct in its extended car warranty business NWC. Google.
    /opinion/mcmillan-shakespeare-hit-with-80-million-class-action-20170618-gwtesr
    The NSW Organised Crime Squad has had some good success here by nailing an unlikely lady for extensive money laundering for criminals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-godmother-300000-and-a-neutral-bay-apartment-inside-a-money-laundering-ring-20170609-gwo7aa.html
    Down in the engine room the Turnbull Government has hit the booster on the “Bullshitron” writes Mike Dowson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/whatever-happened-to-the-budget,10412
    Seven West gives the rather manly-looking Roberta Williams $100000 for stuff to be shown on A Current Affair and the cops are far from impressed!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/seven-west-paid-roberta-williams-100000-for-carl-williams-diaries-tv-appearance-20170618-gwthvm.html
    The Washington Post is confused over whether or not Trump is being personally investigated over ties to Russia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/is-donald-trump-under-investigation-trump-says-yes-his-lawyer-says-no-20170618-gwto4r.html

  49. Section 3a . . .

    And in more IR news the union representing electrical and communications workers has launched a legal challenge against a key element of the Turnbull government’s controversial building and construction laws.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/court-challenge-launched-against-turnbull-governments-building-code-20170618-gwtdaf.html
    Adrian Piccoli asks Labor and the Greens to “return the favour” and support Gonski 2.0.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-want-the-favour-returned-adrian-piccoli-urges-labor-greens-to-back-gonski-20-20170617-gwt7o9.html
    Jess Irvine challenges the men in boardrooms to loosen up and recognise the talent of women.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-time-for-femalefree-boards-to-be-fully-extinct-20170617-gwtbdv.html
    Nervous politicians are running a mile from activities around the parliamentary press gallery’s Midwinter Ball, in the latest fallout from Nine Network veteran ¬Laurie Oakes ’s leaking of ¬ Malcolm Turnbull ’s supposedly off-the-¬record speech. Google.
    /business/media/media-diary/hunt-for-oakes-deep-throat-deepens-as-nervous-pollies-fear-ballsup/news-story/68855f6135b2dc7d426ed5b6179f6605

  50. Section 3b . . .

    State government policies on renewable energy and “mindless moratoriums” on gas fields will be discussed at an energy ministers’ meeting as the Turnbull government tries to shift the blame for rising power prices. This is going to be a cracker of a meeting!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mindless-state-government-policies-to-blame-for-rising-power-prices-frydenberg-20170618-gwtckn.html
    This professor of economics pans Finkel in a big way! Google.
    /business/mining-energy/finkel-numbers-dont-add-up/news-story/6ccc0f3fc6ed4ce67dd58037e4d70eec
    The Finkel Report is not only too accommodating of the Coalition’s coal fetish, as Ben Eltham points out. It’s also too conservative from an engineering perspective because it’s constructed around a 1960s model of electricity supply, writes Ian McAuley.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/06/18/the-finkel-report-back-to-the-future-and-the-1960s/
    Peter Dutton is terrorising, and plans to send to almost certain death, a critically ill 73 year-old who has lived in Australia for 32 years and is beloved by his remote North Queensland community.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/exclusive-heartless-peter-dutton-terrorises-73-year-old-community-leader,10415
    The CPA’s “board of cronies” is about to be sued, plunging the CPA deeper and deeper into paralysis. Google.
    /business/accounting/rebels-to-sue-cpa-australia-board-of-alex-malley-cronies-20170618-gwtbv5

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