BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. When Barnyard is staying shtum and not defending you you can be pretty sure you’ve fucked up.

    When imbeciles like Latham and Uhlmann come out on your side…

    … that’s when the panic really sets in.

    If those three morons weren’t already starting to worry they should be shitting their pants now.

  2. Labor has cemented its gains in voter support after weeks of argument over school funding and energy security, with the latest Newspoll showing the Coalition continues to trail Labor by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

    Voters have marked down Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in another rebuke to both leaders, leaving them with identical ratings that show strong dissatisfaction with their performances.

  3. But some voters have shifted towards Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which saw its primary vote increase from 9 to 11 per cent in the biggest change for any party in the new survey.

    The latest survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has kept its lead since the last poll three weeks ago to produce the same TPP 47-53 result in three consecutive Newspolls.

    Labor’s support rose from 36 to 37 per cent compared to the last survey, while support for the Greens slipped from 10 to 9 per cent.

    The Coalition’s primary vote was steady at 36 per cent, the same result in five consecutive Newspolls.

    The number of voters indicating support for “other” parties — a group that includes the Nick Xenophon Team and others on the Senate crossbench — fell from 9 to 7 per cent.

    Mr Turnbull retains his lead over Mr Shorten as better prime minister, leading by 44 to 31 per cent, but both leaders saw their individual ratings decline and the only gain on this measure was in the number of “uncommitted” voters, which rose from 22 to 25 per cent.

  4. I’ve come around to a point where I disagree. Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar have backed the court into a corner where they have no choice but to demonstrate their independence, and they’ll do it by referring these three for prosecution.

    I’m pretty much on that boat too. They had their chance Friday. Now the court must feel they haven’t any option but to refer.

  5. ratsak @ #756 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:35 pm

    When Barnyard is staying shtum and not defending you you can be pretty sure you’ve fucked up.
    When imbeciles like Latham and Uhlmann come out on your side…
    … that’s when the panic really sets in.
    If those three morons weren’t already starting to worry they should be shitting their pants now.

    Let me be the first to put my name down for phone banking during the by-election (I’m in WA).

  6. Mr Turnbull’s standing with voters has been eroded in the latest survey, with 32 per cent saying they are satisfied with his performance compared to 35 per cent three weeks ago.

    The Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — declined to -23 percentage points.

    Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating deteriorated from -20 points three weeks ago to -23 points.

    Voters now rate both leaders the same on satisfaction and dissatisfaction while the same proportion — 13 per cent — are “uncommitted” on each of them.

    Every change in the latest Newspoll survey was within the margin of error of 2.3 percentage points, other than the fall in Mr Turnbull’s satisfaction rating.

    This is the 14th consecutive Newspoll where the Coalition has trailed Labor, a tally that is now used against Mr Turnbull by his critics after he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Tony Abbott in September 2015.

    Mr Turnbull has retained his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister.

    Voters trimmed their support for Mr Turnbull as better prime minister from 45 to 44 per cent, while they cut their support for Mr Shorten from 33 to 31 per cent. The proportion of voters who were “uncommitted” increased from 22 to 25 per cent.

    As a result, Mr Turnbull slightly increased his lead over Mr Shorten on this measure to 13 percentage points, compared to 12 points three weeks ago.

  7. Newspoll Labor 53 (0), Coalition 47 (0).

    James J came along to gazump the ghost. Do we have a new gazumper?

    And where’s that damned budget bounce Essential has been on about lately?

  8. Guytaur:

    I don’t think the Je Suis tweet is a sacking offence. He tweeted it days ago and there’s been no mention of it other than from yourself. As a journalist I imagine that tweet simply endears him further to his journalist brethren than anything else.

  9. grimace
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:29 pm

    lord haw haw of arabia @ #739 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm

    Henry
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm
    Expect a grovelling apology from the three eejit ministers concerned in the next couple of days as the seriousness of it all sinks in.
    They must be comforted to know they have the human headline in their corner.
    *************************************************************
    I do anticipate they will apologise, but I also believe they will be referred for prosecution, be prosecuted and fined – I just hope that the fine comes from their pocket and is not sloughed off to the taxpayer, even though their legal counsel is being stumped for by J. Citizen.

    I assume you’re a lawyer LHHofA, in your opinion, will Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar be in breach of S44 of the consitution?
    ***************************************************************
    I am a lawyer, but not the advocate type.
    I don’t believe the High Court would find them in breach of s44 because;
    *the penalty for contempt is at the courts discretion;
    *I believe if convicted they will be fined;
    *the HC will not wish to choose this to form the basis for a constitutional crisis;
    *I believe the HC would read down the ‘or eligible for a sentence of 12 months’.

  10. So no change in Newspoll, and all that AGW denying blather about electricity supply has fallen on deaf ears.

    You’d think this mob would catch a clue.

  11. The Smear enumerates what they think happened over the last 2 weeks

    “The poll comes after the government released a controversial report from Chief Scientist Alan Finkel on a clean energy target, unveiled stricter citizenship laws and edged closer to a deal in the Senate on an $18.6 billion school funding package.

    The period since the last Newspoll also included the terrorist attack in London and the dispute over parole laws between Mr Turnbull and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, after the siege in Melbourne where convicted criminal and accused terrorist Yacub Khayre killed a man and took a sex worker hostage while on parole.”

  12. Brian Trumble has thrown everything he’s got at Labor for no movement in the polls, and we’re yet to see the impact of Your Rights at Work mk2, Conski 2.0, corporate tax cuts etc. The federal L/NP are on track for a dose of what the WA Liberals just got.

  13. We can say that Brian didn’t make any new friends in the last three weeks. Seeing as Brian is in desperate need of some new friends that’s not a good result for him. 14 Newspolls now Brian. Bit of a pattern wouldn’t you say?

  14. lord haw haw of arabia @ #772 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    grimace
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:29 pm
    lord haw haw of arabia @ #739 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm
    Henry
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm
    Expect a grovelling apology from the three eejit ministers concerned in the next couple of days as the seriousness of it all sinks in.
    They must be comforted to know they have the human headline in their corner.
    *************************************************************
    I do anticipate they will apologise, but I also believe they will be referred for prosecution, be prosecuted and fined – I just hope that the fine comes from their pocket and is not sloughed off to the taxpayer, even though their legal counsel is being stumped for by J. Citizen.
    I assume you’re a lawyer LHHofA, in your opinion, will Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar be in breach of S44 of the consitution?
    ***************************************************************
    I am a lawyer, but not the advocate type.
    I don’t believe the High Court would find them in breach of s44 because;
    *the penalty for contempt is at the courts discretion;
    *I believe if convicted they will be fined;
    *the HC will not wish to choose this to form the basis for a constitutional crisis;
    *I believe the HC would read down the ‘or eligible for a sentence of 12 months’.

    Thanks LHHofA.

  15. Confessions

    The date is 15/6/17, 9:06 am.

    Thats the Friday of the case. I may have only become aware of it tonight but Uhlman knew why the ministers were going before the court. Thus pause is operative word.

  16. Nice to see that further incremental movement of Labor’s primary vote up to 37%.

    But people are moving away from Labor to the Greens and minor parties of course, under the unpopular leader Bill Shorten.

  17. confessions @ #773 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    So no change in Newspoll, and all that AGW denying blather about electricity supply has fallen on deaf ears.
    You’d think this mob would catch a clue.

    Sigh…
    Since the numpty doesn’t read anything I post, I have been hoping someone else would point out to her that reducing GHGE from power generation is inextricably linked to reducing GHGE overall. Further, unreliable power is unacceptable so renewables need to be engineered into the system to replace coal.
    You can’t blithely talk about reducing GHGE without looking at how it will be done, and also how it will be done to reliably meet demand for power.

  18. Just on S44(ii) says any person who ” is attainted of treason, or has been convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer; or..”

    Criminal contempt is governed

  19. By the SUPREME COURT ACT 1986, and does not specify a penalty. They would have to receive the one year + penalty, and then they are ineligible to sit as MPs.

  20. Confessions
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm
    Mari:

    You’re in Greece? I thought you were somewhere else this time?

    Sorry out walking as a bit cooler today. Was in Chile Argentine Brazil Patagonia but now in Greek islands to thaw out, especially after Patagonia. Milos now then Serifos , UK home beginning of August

  21. confessions @ #734 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    Mark Latham has completely lost the plot. I mean, seriously, WTF?

    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Time to elect our judges in Australia. Let the people decide on law enforcement. Rid all states of elite time-serving Leftie judges.
    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Well done @HumanHeadline in standing up for the rights of parliament over unelected, Left-wing, elitist, arrogant Victorian judiciary.

    As if we needed conformation that Latham was off the planet.

    Who in their right mind would even think electing judges was a good idea.

    It’s up there with allowing politicians to draw their own electoral boundaries.

    Is there any place that stupid?

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