BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  6. I’m here for the Newspoll watch!

    I may go for the higher order excitement of watching grass grow and walking the dog.

  9. CTar1
    It will go with the “Push” in Afghanistan that the war mongers are currently Oi Oi Oiing for. 10-20,000 troops they reckon.

  10. Poroti – They’ll be no end to ‘pushes’ in Afghanistan until other countries stop trying to help them ‘push’ and leave them to settle things themselves.

  12. CTar1

    Yep slow learners. But then more wilful ignorance than slow learners, too much money to be made by such ignorance. So till they wise up it is hi di ho and Kipling all the way for the dumb arses who are sent.

    When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains, and the women come out to cut up what remains, jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains and go to your gawd like a soldier.

  15. Great Rowe cartoon, thanks Mari.

    It was interesting in Barnaby’s interview this morning, I don’t think he mentioned carbon emissions once, just ‘meeting our international treaty obligations ‘.
    Perhaps carbon emissions are poison to his base.

    Since when has ‘meeting treaty obligations’ (think the UNHRC agreement on refugees), been a major driver of domestic policy, especially on the right.

  16. What’s amazing is that the Libs have suddenly realised it’s a good idea to go quiet about the Three Stooges, yet the Three Stooges haven’t done the only sensible thing and apologise. Stupid beyond belief.

  18. I don’t think he mentioned carbon emissions once, just ‘meeting our international treaty obligations

    1. The govt is trying to obfuscate on reducing GHGEs by talking about energy security. This is a deliberate tactic because they a) have no effective or efficient policy to address AGW, and b) are hopelessly divided on the issue of climate change.

    2. Because they are divided on AGW any talk about reducing GHGEs becomes a quasi leadership debate which only serves to further undermine Turnbull, and divide them even further.

    Meanwhile the planet continues to heat, our emissions continue to increase, and as per usual when we have coalition governments, nothing gets done.

  19. RATSAK – I think Rule 1 is that if there is nothing too weak for Turnbull to do. He KNEW that the Three Stooges were right out of line, but just had to suck up to them.

  21. There is almost nothing that you could point to as a redeeming feature of Tony Abbott.

    And then Brian Trumble comes along and you forget just how wretched an individual Abbott is because he looks like a giant next to the amorphous blob of nothing that replaced him.

  22. Confessions
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 7:29 pm
    Mari:

    Thanks for Rowe and I hope you’re enjoying your holiday!!
    Am thanks just watching an old tub of a ferry, I have travelled on often coming in tourists picking up now in numbers , it should be pensioned off.
    Having a saganaki (fried cheese) and iced coffee at one of the cafes, they know me

  26. Ratsak – if only Tones had stayed off the steroids, or whatever he’s taking to get up at 5am and go riding for a couple of hours on a pushbike.

  28. Listening to Beethoven’s Missa Solemnis right now. Truly, the greatest piece of music ever written. Very hard to find great versions though because it requires a virtuoso choir with outstanding stamina that can sing for 80 minutes with gut-busting intensity. But the recent versions by Janowski and Reuss are absolutely stunning, IMHO.

  34. Mark Latham has completely lost the plot. I mean, seriously, WTF?

    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Time to elect our judges in Australia. Let the people decide on law enforcement. Rid all states of elite time-serving Leftie judges.

    Real Mark Latham‏ @RealMarkLatham 1h1 hour ago
    Well done @HumanHeadline in standing up for the rights of parliament over unelected, Left-wing, elitist, arrogant Victorian judiciary.

  36. Expect a grovelling apology from the three eejit ministers concerned in the next couple of days as the seriousness of it all sinks in.
    They must be comforted to know they have the human headline in their corner.

  37. Latham is insane these days confessions, even more than he used to be.
    Yes, let’s elect our judges, then we can have the likes of Alan Jones, Gerry Harvey and Stan Zamanek (dec) running their finger over the law.

  39. Henry
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm

    Expect a grovelling apology from the three eejit ministers concerned in the next couple of days as the seriousness of it all sinks in.
    They must be comforted to know they have the human headline in their corner.
    *************************************************************
    I do anticipate they will apologise, but I also believe they will be referred for prosecution, be prosecuted and fined – I just hope that the fine comes from their pocket and is not sloughed off to the taxpayer, even though their legal counsel is being stumped for by J. Citizen.

  40. henry @ #737 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:11 pm

    Latham is insane these days confessions, even more than he used to be.
    Yes, let’s elect our judges, then we can have the likes of Alan Jones, Gerry Harvey and Stan Zamanek (dec) running their finger over the law.

    I am not a noted enthusiast for the current legal system, but if one really did want to make it worse, then electing judges is the way to go!

  42. Lord HHA – My money is on an apology and the Court accepting it and not going ahead. The Court will be very anxious to avoid a confrontation between the branches of Govt if possible.
    Justin Gleeson would have told them in no uncertain terms that they HAD to apologise. But they gave him the boot. How ironic.

  43. Yes, let’s elect our judges, then we can have the likes of Alan Jones, Gerry Harvey and Stan Zamanek (dec) running their finger over the law.

    Exactly!

  44. Chris Uhlman may be in trouble. He just did a tweet that implied judges wrong to consider referral to another court while court is sitting.

  45. With Latham and Uhlman contributions I think the court will feel more under attack. More likely to refer case for trial

  48. lord haw haw of arabia @ #739 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm

    Henry
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm
    Expect a grovelling apology from the three eejit ministers concerned in the next couple of days as the seriousness of it all sinks in.
    They must be comforted to know they have the human headline in their corner.
    *************************************************************
    I do anticipate they will apologise, but I also believe they will be referred for prosecution, be prosecuted and fined – I just hope that the fine comes from their pocket and is not sloughed off to the taxpayer, even though their legal counsel is being stumped for by J. Citizen.

    I assume you’re a lawyer LHHofA, in your opinion, will Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar be in breach of S44 of the consitution?

  49. John Boy.

    I would have thought the response of that fighter for Freedom The Australian newspaper and Barnaby Joyce on Insiders would have given those two pause to wait before saying anything.

  50. antonbruckner11 @ #742 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Lord HHA – My money is on an apology and the Court accepting it and not going ahead. The Court will be very anxious to avoid a confrontation between the branches of Govt if possible.

    I’ve come around to a point where I disagree. Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar have backed the court into a corner where they have no choice but to demonstrate their independence, and they’ll do it by referring these three for prosecution.

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