BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. If only the three stooges got jail time, don’t have high hopes though.

    Having read that article about Hinch getting jailed for contempt,i suspect any sentences applied to the 3 stupids would be less than 12 months. The question then becomes “could” they have been up for 12 months or more and so disqualified from parliament. Not sure the courts will want to go there??

  2. guytaur @ #638 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    Bemused
    You are wrong about radio. The only thing that stops them using audio of live press conferences is access. Radio uses audio of politicians statements all the time.
    This is just another fotm.
    My point is it is to the advantage of the candidate to include it not exclude it bas others have pointed out its done for social media anyway. Not that much of an effort to provide video for media as well.
    The more this happens the more the media will have to pay attention not just ignore. Thats the point. Its not like its some grat new burden for politicians to do

    It may have eluded you, but neither print not radio are video mediums.
    Video belongs elsewhere.

  5. Bemused.

    It may have eluded you but newspapers quote video interviews all the time.

    Radio uses audio from videos all the time as well.

    Press releases are not only for newspapers

  6. Bemused

    Also news sites like Fairfax ABC and News.com.au use video and audio on their websites as part of stories

  8. guytaur @ #655 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 4:50 pm

    Bemused.
    It may have eluded you but newspapers quote video interviews all the time.
    Radio uses audio from videos all the time as well.
    Press releases are not only for newspapers

    But the video is produced primarily for a video medium. The other is just feeding off it. Which does add to te value of the video as more hear about it and may go to it.

  9. Bemused

    As a candidate why limit your release for only the one medium. Its not like they cant quote transcripts and print photos

  10. Sky News Australia
    1 min ·
    Liberal MP Trevor Evans: I’m not entirely sold on the clean energy target.. We need to ensure the investment climate is more stable. MORE http://bit.ly/2tB6acW

    It’s just outrageous that the media is falling into the coalition plan of conflating GHGE reduction with energy security.

  11. Shorten calls for a public enquiry into building codes. There is a worrying comment under it.
    “As an experienced Building Auditor with over 25 years experience, I can tell you that there are hundreds if not thousands of building structures of all Classifications across Australia that have utilised the cheaper imported façade cladding similar to that which may have acted as the catalyst for that horrendous Grenfell Tower tragedy, over the past 10-15 years.”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/labors-bill-shorten-to-call-for-public-inquiry-into-building-codes/news-story/58f8460469fe3ebf8586cecf9215bd9b

  12. Something not quite right about this. Look at the speed with which one of the “peasantry” was jailed for this ‘crime’ . What a shame the pollies, company directors and all the others responsible were not jailed so swiftly. Not that they ever will be of course.

    A man has been jailed after he admitted to posting pictures of a Grenfell Tower victim on social media.

    Omega Mwaikambo plead guilty to two offences contrary to section 127 of the Communications Act, Scotland Yard said.

    The 43-year-old was sentenced to three months at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, the force added.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grenfell-tower-fire-man-jailed-dead-body-picture-post-facebook-social-media-london-a7794671.html

  14. France: Not bad from a zero seat start –

    Polls open in France for second round of parliamentary elections

    French voters are expected to hand President Emmanuel Macron a landslide majority in parliament on Sunday, a second election triumph for him after his presidential victory and one which should allow him to embark on deep social and economic reforms.

    Just a month after the 39-year-old ex-banker became the youngest head of state in modern French history, pollsters forecast his centrist Republic on the Move (LREM) party will win as many as 75-80 percent of seats in the lower house of parliament.

    http://www.france24.com/en/20170618-france-polls-open-second-round-parliamentary-elections-legislative

  17. Grimace

    Wooops assumed it was the “Health and Safety” one. Anyway as CTar1 said Hunt would not be so dumb. Or could he be ? 🙂

  21. Has anyone ever seen Briefly? Are we sure he is not Joe Bullock or a former Bullock staffer?

    Yes. And no. 🙂

  23. poroti @ #667 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Grimace
    Wooops assumed it was the “Health and Safety” one. Anyway as CTar1 said Hunt would not be so dumb. Or could he be ?

    Damm, got emoji’d.

    It’s plausible to me that Hunt (or any other politician) could have made this comment, which is dated 2013. Politicians often pass comment on the perceived shortcomings of sentences handed out by judges.

    A plausible context for me would be an aboriginal/brown/black/poor person got convicted for contempt of court during a case which had some sort of political relevance, and Hunt put his $0.02 in.

  24. Grimace
    Well ‘Dave’ saying such a stupid thing “I will kill off safety culture” means it is not beyond the realm of possibility Grunt would be equally stoopid.

  26. C@tmomma
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 5:41 pm

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-ministers-silent-as-hinch-backs-trios-court-attack-20170618-gwtcmm.html

    Here’s someone who should know when to STFU……not doing it

    Do any of the legal eagles know if Hinch can now be held in Contempt of Court as well?
    ****************************************************************
    Hinch’s comments are probably OK but Leytonjhelm’s comments may be sailing a little close to the wind, as they are reported in that piece.

  27. Colton
    You clearly have not done any risk analysis; people will accept higher risks they know about; higher again if they have some control and unbelievable risk levels to get an adrenaline fix.
    Killing a hundred people to save a couple of hundred thousand dollars will result in criminal charges; it is that simple.

  30. Bemused

    It is supposed to have been in 2013.

    Modifying an image dated 2013 is just as easy as with one taken 10 minutes ago.

  32. ctar1 @ #680 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    Bemused

    It is supposed to have been in 2013.

    Modifying an image dated 2013 is just as easy as with one taken 10 minutes ago.

    No shit! And a caption can be added at any time.
    What’s your point? Someone has taken an alleged quote, supposedly from 2013 and superimposed on a photo that could have been taken any time.
    None of which goes to the authenticity of the quote.

  36. diogenes @ #661 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 5:07 pm

    Shorten calls for a public enquiry into building codes. There is a worrying comment under it.
    “As an experienced Building Auditor with over 25 years experience, I can tell you that there are hundreds if not thousands of building structures of all Classifications across Australia that have utilised the cheaper imported façade cladding similar to that which may have acted as the catalyst for that horrendous Grenfell Tower tragedy, over the past 10-15 years.”
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/labors-bill-shorten-to-call-for-public-inquiry-into-building-codes/news-story/58f8460469fe3ebf8586cecf9215bd9b

    That ‘call for a public enquiry’ has disappeared from the Adelaide paper as well as from the Courier Mail – I wonder why??

  39. ctar1 @ #687 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    Bemused – It’s a stock Getty image. No 2013 on it there.
    Anyway enough of the ‘photo’.

    The original link was to that photo with the alleged quote on it along with:
    – Greg Hunt 2013

    So my assumption is that someone dug up the quote and superimposed it and the attribution on the photo and unleashed it on twitter.
    Why do you struggle with this?

  43. tallebudgeralurker @ #686 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    diogenes @ #661 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 5:07 pm

    Shorten calls for a public enquiry into building codes. There is a worrying comment under it.
    “As an experienced Building Auditor with over 25 years experience, I can tell you that there are hundreds if not thousands of building structures of all Classifications across Australia that have utilised the cheaper imported façade cladding similar to that which may have acted as the catalyst for that horrendous Grenfell Tower tragedy, over the past 10-15 years.”
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/labors-bill-shorten-to-call-for-public-inquiry-into-building-codes/news-story/58f8460469fe3ebf8586cecf9215bd9b

    That ‘call for a public enquiry’ has disappeared from the Adelaide paper as well as from the Courier Mail – I wonder why??

    Not saying this is necessarily the reason, but stories are sometimes refreshed and replaced.
    That one said Shorten ‘was going to call…’ Maybe he now has done so and it is redundant.
    We shall see what unfolds.

  49. “A plausible context for me would be an aboriginal/brown/black/poor person got convicted for contempt of court during a case which had some sort of political relevance, and Hunt put his $0.02 in”

    Or anyone associated with the Gillard Government, the Greens, unions or. Environmental activism.

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