Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll comes in at 53-47 for the third time in a row, with both leaders down slightly on their net approval ratings.

The first Newspoll result in three weeks, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up two). The two leaders have recorded identical personal ratings of 32% approval and 55% disapproval, which in Malcolm Turnbull’s case means a three point drop on approval and a one point increase on disapproval, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one and up two. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 44-31, compared with 45-33 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1786.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. sohar @ #104 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 7:20 am

    Thanks, Kevin.
    “There are two previous cases of the PM and LOTO having identical personal ratings.
    March 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 39-51
    Nov 2011 Gillard vs Abbott both 34-55”
    And Ms Gillard probably never improved after that. Possibly the same for Mr Trumble.

    Gillard had a bried period of improved ratings from Sep 2012-Jan 2013, reaching a best netsat of -11. This all ended at the start of February 2013 with a disastrous week when she announced the September election date and Wayne Swan admitted they weren’t getting the budget back to surplus.

  2. Question @12:20
    Thank you for the interesting, if somewhat incoherent article re murder rates eg that women’s murder(ed) rate at 99 is 79%! 79% of what? ! (~ 125 going by the numbers, but 125 represents what?)
    The 9.2 per million for the UK seems to exclude the Midsomer area. I have made it a rule to avoid going to parish fetes in Midsomer. The rates of homicidal frenzy among clergymen there seems to approach the rates of paedophilia among their brethren of the cloth in Ballaarat.

  3. Ta, Kevin.
    “..September election date and Wayne Swan admitted they weren’t getting the budget back to surplus”
    Now the Hockey-Morrison mega-deficit is not a big media issue for some reason. Why can that be, I wonder?

  4. Morning

    zoomster

    I agree with you on the bullying. A bit of respect for other people is a good thing and stops some damn ugly outcomes.

  5. jaketapper: URGENT: London vehicle hits pedestrians, police say ‘number of casualties’ cnn.com/2017/06/18/eur…

  7. Tricot

    The Newspoll figures were mentioned in passing with a quaint “now showing 47-53 to the government”.

    ‘Quaint’.

    Just stupid.

  11. Indigocathy: Important to support fellow independent Andrew @WilkieMP’s bill to make sure people aren’t charged extra to get a paper bill. #indiacts

  13. shane25873: It seems it was a white man, so no need to do a full day of TV, somehow they’re always mentally unstable, if Christian!
    @morningshowon7

  14. I think McGowan has got it the wrong way around*: people are being rewarded for opting out of paper. If it saves the company money, then it’s only reasonable that those benefits should be passed on.

    *Yeah, I know. I probably would anyway. But consider my argument on its merits…

  15. Cathy McGowan should support retaining Sunday penalty rates. Then her constituents could afford the little extra for a paper Electricity Bill!

  17. Pauline Hanson is a munt! Look at what she wants in exchange for PHONy votes for Gonski 2.0:

    View this email in your browser
    Crikey
    JUNE 19, 2017
    Good morning, early birds. This week is all about Gonski 2.0 — who gives one and at what price for the government? Turnbull is still struggling in the polls, and Donald Trump has been contradicted by his own lawyer. It’s the news you need to know, by Sally Whyte and Max Chalmers.

    GONSKI 2.0: THE NEVERENDING STORY

    The government is negotiating with the Greens and the crossbench to pass the “Gonski 2.0″ education funding changes this week, and the potential for striking a deal with each of the major players depends on several factors. One Nation whip Brian Burston says in The Australian today that the party is likely to support the legislation as is: “It’s a fair deal, it’s based on need, and the fact a school can apply for extra funding based on special needs I think is a good thing.”

    Sounds easy, right? His leader Pauline Hanson isn’t quoted in the Oz, but in The Courier-Mail she makes it seem like Education Minister Simon Birmingham will have to work for her vote when they meet later today. “I have long said throwing money at education is not always the answer,” she said. She reportedly wants to explore what the federal government can do to enforce more discipline in classrooms even though that is a state issue, including students doing “lines” and being forced to repeat a year if they fail. “Classrooms are not some Brisbane Ekka show stall where everyone gets a prize.”

    🙄

  19. Aha!

    The government might still need to deal with opposition within its own ranks. West Australian Senator Chris Back, who formerly sat on the Catholic Education Commission, says he won’t stop fighting for a better deal for Catholic schools. Financial modelling released over the weekend shows $4 billion will move from the Catholic sector to the public sector, which has added to staunch opposition to the changes from the Catholic Education Commission. Catholic Education Commission executive director Christian Zahra told Fran Kelly this morning he believes there’s a chance more Coalition MPs could cross the floor on the deal.

    Christian Zahra is a former federal Labor MP. Also there are a few former Catholic teachers in Labor’s ranks at present.

  20. She will want the ‘cuts’ aka 6 of the best brought back next..
    Sadistic teachers were in heaven back in the the 60’s and 70’s from my hand memory!

  24. trog sorrenson @ #124 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 8:33 am

    The Jacobs report to Finkel is available online. It is interesting to read this from the forward:

    The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Jacobs is to assess the electricity sector impacts of policy scenarios to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the scope of services set out in the contract between
    Jacobs and the Client. That scope of services, as described in this report, was developed with the Client.
    In preparing this report, Jacobs has relied upon, and presumed accurate, any information (or confirmation of the absence thereof) provided by the Client and/or from other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, Jacobs has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change.

    In other words, in no way was Jacobs independent.

    That makes about as much sense as saying an audit is not independent, just because the auditor relied on information provided by the client. This does not affect the independence of the audit, and this is a fairly standard disclaimer.

    I am sure there will be much to review in the Jacobs report, and compare with Finkel’s conclusions.

    As I pointed out weeks ago, the most interesting thing is the parts of the Jacobs Report that Finkel chose not to use. Still, I’m glad to see you are finally moving beyond simply reposting RenewEconomy propaganda.

  25. According to some online sites, the latest attack on pedestrians in London took place outside a major London mosque. Perhaps it was an anti-Muslim attack: time will tell.

  26. Baba

    I am happy there is no wall to wall coverage today. I agree with the tweet though. If it was an identified muslim driving the van the whole terror edifice would be up and running with wall to wall coverage tragedy porn.

  27. This is what I want to know.

    Geoff Pearson‏ @GCobber99 · 2h2 hours ago

    Australia’s debt has double under the Coalition Not one journo is asking how. We have cuts and closures at every level where did savings go?

  28. …so the current msm meme seems to be that if Shorten doesn’t reflexively agree with every utterance Malcolm makes (a higher bar than that set for his party room) this means that Shorten is Just Like Abbott.

    I notice the simile doesn’t extend to calling Shorten The Best Opposition Leader Ever.

  29. guytaur @ #176 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 11:05 am

    Baba
    I am happy there is no wall to wall coverage today. I agree with the tweet though. If it was an identified muslim driving the van the whole terror edifice would be up and running with wall to wall coverage tragedy porn.

    Let’s wait and see. Reports are only starting to come through now and some are saying that Muslims leaving the Finsbury Park mosque were targetted. If so, then by any definition of terrorism, if it was deliberate, it was terrorism.

  30. As someone who cares about good policy more than which side wins the political argument du jour, I’m sad about the Gonski 2.0 debate. Given the current state of the government’s finances, it’s a pretty good package. It was put together by the apolitical bureaucrats of the Education Department and I reckon it would have looked much the same if Shorten had won the last election: promises once made by Gillard and Swan about billions of dollars in the never-never notwithstanding.

    Fact is, a bit like the SSM referendum bill last year, Gonski 2.0 is currently the only game in town. If Labor and others vote it down, the schools won’t get the illusory billions of dollars promised by Gillard and Swan, we’ll just be stuck with the status quo.

    And, despite the fact that Labor seems to be riding high in the polls right now, it is a long time until the next election and a lot can happen. If things suddenly go the way of Turnbull (or even a replacement PM), it might be a very long time until Labor next forms government.

    Beazley in the 1998-2001 period adopted a similar approach of promising to get rid of all the nasties and ladle out milk and honey all around, and not worrying a jot about the budget bottom line. For a while in late 2000-2001, you could hardly get set on him becoming PM, so short were his odds. And then Tampa and 9/11 happened in quick succession, and he was cooked.

    If you care about public education, Gonski 2.o is a bird in the hand: just like the referendum was for people who care about SSM.

    Don’t worry, I don’t expect many of you to agree with me.

  31. Good morning all,

    Gonski 2.0 will, at the very best, end up as a mad dogs breakfast of deals negotiated on the run with internal government opponents and the cross bench. Cash will be thrown here, taken away from there and funds offered to individual states and sectors on a ad hoc basis with no real central policy direction or proper scrutiny. So much for doing away with the unwieldy individual deals negotiated under labor !

    As well, so much for Gonski 2.0 being the real gold plated deal lauded by Turnbull, Birmingham and David Gonski. If it was so good why the need for change ? It will be simply a political fix held together by band aids and as such will blow apart very quickly. However, that ” optimistic” scenario is only applicable if the legislation passes. It still has to get past the government backbench. What it looks like today may be completely different by Wednesday. How, in good faith, can any serious decisions be made by the cross bench if the government has no idea where this will land and in what shape ?

    I wonder how much of the detail Birmingham kept to himself given the blow back from the backbench ? It would not surprise me if Turnbull and Birmingham have attempted to treat the back bench like mushrooms and push this through hoping ” no one would notice ” If that is the case then the release to the week end MSM of the detail relating to the money that was going to be ripped off the Catholics takes on a whole new perspective. Who leaked it and why ? It does not seem to be doing Birmingham too much good today.

    Cheers.

  32. guytaur: “I am happy there is no wall to wall coverage today. I agree with the tweet though. If it was an identified muslim driving the van the whole terror edifice would be up and running with wall to wall coverage tragedy porn.”

    Ironically, the first website I came across to suggest that it was most likely an attack on Muslims leaving the mosque after a Ramadan event was Breitbart!

  33. TPOF

    Yes. However no wall to wall coverage. No tragedy Porn today. Its the media I am talking about not if it was a terror attack or not. Worshippers leaving a place of worship were mown down by a van.

  35. Doyley – according to the Guardian, Kevin Andrews has said that if the Catholic sector is disadvantaged, he will cross the floor!

  36. Doyley: “Gonski 2.0 will, at the very best, end up as a mad dogs breakfast of deals negotiated on the run with internal government opponents and the cross bench. Cash will be thrown here, taken away from there and funds offered to individual states and sectors on a ad hoc basis with no real central policy direction or proper scrutiny. So much for doing away with the unwieldy individual deals negotiated under labor !”

    If Labor wasn’t opposing it, then none of this would be necessary.

    And, any compromises to get the thing through will almost inevitably mean extra money for the elite private schools. And, let’s face it, how many politicians of any stripe send their kids to any other sort of school nowadays?

    I’ve have a sneaking suspicion that one motivation for RDN in derailing SHY’s initial strong support for Gonski 2.o was to play to the Greens’ supporter base: an overwhelming proportion of whom – being a bunch of chardonnay lefties – would probably send their kids to private schools. (“We have always strongly believed in the public system, but we found that the public school just wasn’t right for our dear little Atticus.”)

  37. It’s just part of life living in a big city.
    Anyway, more people die from bee stings than terror attacks.
    We can’t let the terrorists win.
    We need to just go on with ‘business as usual’
    I’m going to go light a candle in memory of the victims.
    Love trumps hate.
    Not all non-muslims are terrorists.
    Let’s not forget the Ottoman Empire.
    I’ve got an english friend and he isn’t a terrorist.
    So there really is no problem.

  38. Baba

    Brietbart is consistent in its ramping up of division and fear. So not ironic. Just business as usual. It does highlight the hypocrisy of the rest of the media.

    You read Brietbart?

  39. meher baba @ #180 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 11:27 am

    As someone who cares about good policy more than which side wins the political argument du jour, I’m sad about the Gonski 2.0 debate. Given the current state of the government’s finances, it’s a pretty good package. It was put together by the apolitical bureaucrats of the Education Department and I reckon it would have looked much the same if Shorten had won the last election: promises once made by Gillard and Swan about billions of dollars in the never-never notwithstanding.
    Fact is, a bit like the SSM referendum bill last year, Gonski 2.0 is currently the only game in town. If Labor and others vote it down, the schools won’t get the illusory billions of dollars promised by Gillard and Swan, we’ll just be stuck with the status quo.
    And, despite the fact that Labor seems to be riding high in the polls right now, it is a long time until the next election and a lot can happen. If things suddenly go the way of Turnbull (or even a replacement PM), it might be a very long time until Labor next forms government.
    Beazley in the 1998-2001 period adopted a similar approach of promising to get rid of all the nasties and ladle out milk and honey all around, and not worrying a jot about the budget bottom line. For a while in late 2000-2001, you could hardly get set on him becoming PM, so short were his odds. And then Tampa and 9/11 happened in quick succession, and he was cooked.
    If you care about public education, Gonski 2.o is a bird in the hand: just like the referendum was for people who care about SSM.
    Don’t worry, I don’t expect many of you to agree with me.

    I am getting a clearer picture of you when you make statements like:

    Beazley in the 1998-2001 period adopted a similar approach of promising to get rid of all the nasties and ladle out milk and honey all around, and not worrying a jot about the budget bottom line.

    You meet Oscar Wilde’s definition of a cynic: “A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.”
    We should look at what our Educational, Health etc needs are and then work out how to fund them rather than say we can’t afford it, which really means we are not prepared to raise sufficient tax revenue.

  40. meher baba @ #182 Monday, June 19, 2017 at 11:28 am

    guytaur: “I am happy there is no wall to wall coverage today. I agree with the tweet though. If it was an identified muslim driving the van the whole terror edifice would be up and running with wall to wall coverage tragedy porn.”
    Ironically, the first website I came across to suggest that it was most likely an attack on Muslims leaving the mosque after a Ramadan event was Breitbart!

    With approval?

  42. “Brietbart is consistent in its ramping up of division and fear. So not ironic. Just business as usual. It does highlight the hypocrisy of the rest of the media. You read Brietbart?”

    I read a broad spectrum of views across the internet. Perhaps you will be surprised to hear that – no mater how right-wing I might appear to be – the Guardian is far and away my favourite news and opinion site: for the simple reason that it’s the best. But I do sometimes read some of the right-wing sites as well: Guido Fawkes (who is an anarchist rather than a conservative) is probably my favourite among these. Breitbart – dominated as it is by delcons/ inane climate change deniers like Delingpole – is not much chop, especially since they dumped their only entertaining writer (Milo Y: who, like Latham, is often laugh out loud funny, whatever you might think of his views). But Breitbart is less restrained than MSM sites in putting up unconfirmed reports about major events, and so it proved on this occasion.

    Variety is the spice of life, I find.

  44. P1

    That makes about as much sense as saying an audit is not independent, just because the auditor relied on information provided by the client. This does not affect the independence of the audit, and this is a fairly standard disclaimer.

    Finkel used modelling prepared by Jacobs using Finkel’s assumptions, as well as it’s own data, which is a crock of shit. e.g. Outdated capital costs for renewables – something which should be easy to check – unless you want rewind the whole cost scenario back 12 mths to fit the political objectives of your client.

  45. Gippslander
    Monday, June 19, 2017 at 10:20 am
    Question @12:20
    Thank you for the interesting, if somewhat incoherent article re murder rates eg that women’s murder(ed) rate at 99 is 79%! 79% of what? ! (~ 125 going by the numbers, but 125 represents what?)
    The 9.2 per million for the UK seems to exclude the Midsomer area. I have made it a rule to avoid going to parish fetes in Midsomer. The rates of homicidal frenzy among clergymen there seems to approach the rates of paedophilia among their brethren of the cloth in Ballaarat.

    Gippslander, and what is even more baffling is that the crime continues unabated with 100% of cases solved!

  46. Hmmmm interesting news from NSW…

    NSW Police signs five-year, $55m deal with IBM

    Bundles up support and taps into new products.

    The NSW police force has consolidated a handful of existing support deals with IBM into one mega-contract that also gives it the ability to tap into other software within the tech giant’s product suite.

    The so-called ‘Topaz 2’ agreement runs until June 30 2021 and is worth $55 million.

    While the force declined to provide detail on the deal, citing confidentiality, it revealed the contract bundles up previous maintenance and support agreements NSW Police has long had with IBM.

    The force is a big user of the technology giant’s products, spanning storage, intelligence, security, database, messaging and analytics products. Its core COPS operational policing system also sits on an IBM mainframe.

    NSW Police needs to support this mainframe as it works through its complex replacement of the COPS system.
    —

    Fresh from the Qld Health Fiasco and losing the VicPol contract.
    Good luck NSW!

  47. bemused: “Maybe he writes for it. Tasmanian correspondent perhaps?”

    Oh dear, outed at last! 🙂

    Perhaps unfortunately for me (and perhaps for you folks on Poll Bludger), I can never find a home on the alt right for the simple reason that I understand science and don’t consider climate change to be a global left-wing conspiracy. Also, I can’t stand Donald Trump or Tony Abbott and I believe in public health and education and a range of similar things that are anathema to what passes as the right-wing commentariat in this country and abroad. It’s this sort of nonsense that continues to drive me away from sites like Catallaxy Files, so I’m afraid you’re stuck with me for now.

  48. Meher,

    Labor is opposing the legislation because it is bullshit. It is not Gonski simply a political fix branded as such.

    I do not know your experience or area (s) of expertise but hopefully you have dug deeply into the actual legislation instead of just accepting the spin.

    Teachers and principals from across the public and Catholic, Jewish etc systems have been very vocal in their opposition. The core arguments have centred around lack of any consultation and the reduction in real money over the next two years with any real funding back ended out to the never never. The education sectors own ” valley of death “.

    I would take the opinion of those with actual skin in the game over the government and its MSM supporters.

    It is a bit like the recent tragic London high rise fire. Who would you believe ? Engineers and others with actual hands on experience or the Tories ? I think thst answer is simple.

    Labor will not and should not support crap policy.

    Cheers.

  49. Baba

    If you accept evidence as science does. It won’t be long before you become centrist left.

    After all the evidence is in Neo Liberalism small government low taxes mantra has failed. Most spectacularly with the Grenfell tower incident. Trickle down just does not work

  50. Keane today is another one proclaiming Malcolm would be a good leader if only his enemies would let him. Sigh!

    Turnbull desperate to govern from the centre, but foes won’t let him

    Better than his overseas counterparts, Malcolm Turnbull has read the mood of electoral disillusionment, but his opponents are succeeding in preventing him from showing it.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/06/19/turnbull-desperate-to-govern-from-the-centre-but-foes-wont-let-him/ (paywalled)

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