BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

  1. Repugs, Tories and Conservatives ‘Lawyer Up’. It’s what they do. It’s what they can afford to do. To help them evade responsibility for what they do. If it goes tits up.

  2. So everyone needs to wait until both the Greens and Labor meet in the party room to worry about the Liberals getting support for their education and dole drug testing policies. Let’s hope neither party disappoints by selling out, eh?

  6. zoomster @ #1357 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    peg
    You posted earlier about Labor not supporting the Greens motion against the drug testing laws. I’ve just seen a transcript of Senator Gallagher’s explanation for this which is:
    1. Labor is waiting for answers to questions submitted from the Minister.
    2. Labor has asked for briefings from DSS & DHS on the issue.
    3. Labor is holding meetings with key stakeholders, such as frontline health professionals.
    4. Labor has yet to see the Bill.
    5. In the light of all of this, Labor asked Siewert to delay her motion, but she refused.
    Rushing in without consultation is why the Greens ended up in a bind with Gonski 2.0.
    Or do the Greens think they know everything already and so they don’t need to actually talk to the people who do?

    That’s pretty lame from both you and Gallagher.

    There is more than enough evidence available from the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand as to why this is a very costly exercise in futility.

  7. Trump acknowledges for first time he’s under investigation

    President Donald Trump acknowledged for the first time Friday that he is under federal investigation as part of the expanding probe into Russia’s election meddling. He lashed out at a top Justice Department official overseeing the inquiry, reflecting his mounting frustration with the unrelenting controversy that has consumed his early presidency.

    Trump advisers and confidants describe the president as increasingly angry over the investigation, yelling at television sets in the White House carrying coverage and insisting he is the target of a conspiracy to discredit — and potentially end — his presidency. Some of his ire is aimed at Rosenstein and investigative special counsel Robert Mueller, both of whom the president believes are biased against him, associates say.

    https://www.apnews.com/amp/0172a576e8124251b5478818d1944632

  8. C@Tmomma
    Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 8:45 am
    Typical Green. Puts down Wyong. Probably never been outside of the Inner Sydney suburbs where The Greens supporters are concentrated. Probably a ‘Knowledge Economy Professional’. Of course coaches a Soccer team, not a Rugby League team. Too violent.

    Harumph!

    I grew up in Gosford you moron.

  9. Dan

    and reinforcing it with expert opinion from local stakeholders won’t hurt anyone and will strengthen the arguments against it.

    For example, Labor might use the proposed legislation to argue for more detox centres and more access to these for Centrelink beneficiaries.

  10. and, to be clear, there are no facts in my opinion that justify forcing welfare recipients to undertake drug tests. none.

    It is theatre, like Work for the Dole.

    But, it does remind me of a conversation i had with a friend in Newcastle during the Gillard government. We had almost a complete overlap of political opinions and she, as a staffer for our Labor MP, asked me to join the party.

    I was considering it and then the ALP put all single parents onto Newstart, which they also refused to increase. Another morally indefensible act in my mind, but i’m sure there was reputable research to back it up.

    I said to my friend ‘Hey, that’s really shitty.’

    Her response was that it was justified to put unemployed people on starvation rations because unlike aged pensioners they have the opportunity to earn more income in the future.

    So, there you go, Milton Friedman’s Lifetime Income Hypothesis appears to be accepted thinking in the ALP.

  11. ‘I grew up in Gosford you moron.’

    No need for the last two words, Marty….although I resent C@’s slur on soccer!

  12. Also, I certainly wasn’t running down Wyong. Just pointing out that there are no jobs on the Central Coast and transport links are poor. Like all places with privatised bus services, buses are irregular and stop running early in the evening, which makes it very difficult for people in Wottanobbi, where I believe public housing was moved to, to get anywhere they can work.

  13. Marty

    So you could have joined the party and worked from within for change – because it doesn’t come from the outside.

  14. It’s not the slur on soccer that bothers me. I’ve lurked on this page for years and Catmomma is someone whose opinions i don’t respect.

    It’s the character assassination based on, what, two posts?

  15. Yeah, I could have. And have considered it since i moved to Canberra, as i absolutely wouldn’t want to be part of the NSW machine. I still might. but my concern is I couldn’t absolutely guarantee i would vote in elections for Labor as my first preference, which I would have to swear to in order to be a member, sorry.

  16. What kind of evidence supports drug testing of income support recipients? It is horse s*** to claim that Labor are waiting for more evidence that treating people like dirt is bad policy. Labor are dragging their feet because they want to see which way the wind blows. They have shafted income support recipients in the past and they will do it again if they think it will play well with voters or it would be too much like leadership to argue for what is right.

  17. zoomster @ #159 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 2:25 pm

    Dan
    and reinforcing it with expert opinion from local stakeholders won’t hurt anyone and will strengthen the arguments against it.

    Or “strengthen” the arguments for it.

    And which local stakeholders will these be? Surely the cold hard facts gained from overseas are enough to convince anyone.

    I hope I’m wrong, however it seems like they are trying to find “evidence” to support voting for it, not against it as there is already enough to vote against it.

    We’ll see how it pans out.

  18. Any Welfare restrictions like Cashless Card and Drug testing needs to be automatically blocked, no need to wait, no need to test or whatever.

  19. zoomster @ #163 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 2:29 pm

    Marty
    So you could have joined the party and worked from within for change – because it doesn’t come from the outside.

    Yeah, that’ll work wonders.

    Furthermore, you can actually change a party from the outside. When they get shellacked in an election they’ll soon learn the lesson and change their stance. From inside you can fight like hell and get nowhere because of entrenched “interests”.

    Want proof? Who is the Labor party leader? Who did the rank and file vote for as leader? Those that joined the party didn’t have much effect on changing it did they?

    BTW That’s not a slur against Shorten, it is just to illustrate how trying to change the party from within can be an exercise in futility.

  20. ‘ I couldn’t absolutely guarantee i would vote in elections for Labor as my first preference, which I would have to swear to in order to be a member, sorry.’

    Well, I’ve never sworn any such thing.

  21. http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/06/16/bank-levy-royal-commission/

    You’d be forgiven for not knowing that the Australian Greens almost pulled off an audacious coup on the final day of this week’s parliamentary session.

    If it wasn’t for another government backbencher, George Christensen, the Greens would have moved an important step closer to establishing a “commission of inquiry” into the banking sector.

    It should be remembered that although many have tried to lay claim to the idea, it was the Greens that first proposed that a banking royal commission. Then Labor sniffed a populist opportunity and latched onto the idea, giving voters the impression that all their banking grievances would miraculously be resolved with such an inquiry.

  22. It’s highly unlikely that there are Good Things in the Bill, but one’s negotiating position is a hell of a lot weaker if you shout your opposition from the rooftops from the beginning.

    The Greens can afford to do this, as they’re not a party of government. Never having to form government gives you freedom to take stands on principle and ignore practicalities.

    Labor has done this continually for the last four or five years – refuse to condemn something out of hand, and then come to the table with a list of (reasonable) demands which happen to be totally unacceptable to the government.

    Being able to come up with the list of reasonable demands is where consultation with stakeholders comes in – and surely no one is arguing that consultation with experts is a Bad Thing?

  23. The greens sniffed a populist opportunity and latched onto the idea, giving voters the impression that all their banking grievances would miraculously be resolved with such an inquiry.

  24. Zoidlord

    But Zoid, think of all that lovely taxpayer dollars for party donors who just happen to supply card and testing “services”. Won’t somebody think of the rent seekers ? 🙁

  25. Dan

    And the opportunity for the vote – still far more democratic than the arrangements offered by other parties in Australia – came because of the work of people on the inside. As did the quota for women.

  26. Pegusus

    Then Labor sniffed a populist opportunity and latched onto the idea, giving voters the impression that all their banking grievances would miraculously be resolved with such an inquiry.

    What did the Greens claim it would do?

  27. itzadream @ #96 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 11:15 am

    Harking back to tree planting in lieu of too tall gums and sun block, I’d add Banksias into the mix, especially along with Don’s Hakeas, and the Silky Oaks (G. robusta).
    B serrata, Old Man Banksia, make wonderful features in the right conditions, and are fire resistant, (I’ve got them by the tens in the house gardens and use their foliage with its serrated edged glossy leaves for indoor displays) and B. integrifolia, Coast Banksia, are more slight but tough as buggery, right conditions again. The parrots and cockies are mad about them, well, their flowers and cones.
    Our pests are the birds, wallabies, and worst of all, yet best of all, lyrebirds. Sacred all, but tough when running an export flower trade.

    Take Grevillia Robusta off your list. They grow rapidly and can reach 20m.

  28. Nearly every newsworthy story about the White House this week has contained one common thread: Russia. Whether it involves President Donald Trump facing backlash for sharing highly classified information with Russian diplomats or encountering fallout from the firing of FBI Director James Comey amid the bureau’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election with possible ties to Trump, his relationship with Russia is proving to be ever relevant.

    A new Dutch documentary, released earlier this month, called “The Dubious Friends of Donald Trump,” attempts to provide context for the allegations surrounding Trump’s Russian ties by investigating the president’s financial history and previous connections.

    The two-part film was produced by Zembla, a Dutch television documentary program. Zembla has provided Salon with an English-language version of the film. You can watch both Part 1 of the film, “The Dubious Friends of Donald Trump: The Russians,” and Part 2, “The Dubious Friends of Donald Trump: King of Diamonds,” on Salon.com.

    http://www.salon.com/2017/05/16/watch-dutch-documentary-investigates-trumps-links-to-russian-mob/

  29. It’s highly unlikely that there are Good Things in the Bill, but one’s negotiating position is a hell of a lot weaker if you shout your opposition from the rooftops from the beginning.

    As Labor did re Gonski 2.0.

    The Greens and cross-benchers dealt themselves into negotiation with the Coalition and have attempted to achieve a compromise that would break the partisan gridlock re school funding.

    The Greens said they would await the findings of the inquiry and have been consulting with stake holders.

    The Greens Party has appeared reasoned and reasonable on this issue.

  31. Katharine Murphy: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/17/a-federal-icac-is-voters-best-chance-at-breaking-the-scandal-cycle

    As if to prove his point, question time descended into a shout-athon about Chinese business donations to both major parties in which each sought to defend its behaviour by highlighting the misdeeds of the other, a kind of louder version of the schoolyard defence “Yeh miss but he’s worse and he did it first.”

    :::
    But still the federal parliament responds to each new allegation with mutual blaming and minimum procedural change, eroding voters’ trust a little bit more each time.

    The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has said he is open to the idea of an integrity commission and the Greens and Nick Xenophon have campaigned for it for years. The inquiry reports in August.

    Something really needs to give this time, because a devastating proportion of Australians agree with Reverend Dempster’s sincere concerns. And more than 80% think a national integrity commission is a great idea.

  32. bemused @ #137 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    doyley @ #70 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Victoria,
    Agree completely. It is time , way beyond time, for construction and material supply companies in this country to be held to account.
    The same old lines will be thrown out about how hard it to distinguish between products, how hard to ensure the products are really up to Australian standards etc etc.
    The simple test is if you are paying cheap as shit prices for something then you are buying a cheap as shit and non compliant product. The bottom line / profit driven ideology however continues to convienently ignore this.
    Cheers.

    Whoever manufactures a product in Australia or imports a product from overseas is responsible for the warranty, so I would have thought they also were responsible for seeing it meets safety standards etc.
    If not, then they ought to be.
    And add to that importers being responsible for the provenance of the product they import. If they cannot be sure of the authenticity of its origins then they shouldn’t import it.

    Agree completely,

    if you’re going to import something and claim it meets certain standards you need to have the proof that it conforms.

    That can achieved by using an accredited manufacturer or the manufacturer has the item tested by an accredited tester or you have the item independently tested on arrival.

    Until you have one of these there is nothing to certify that the item meets the appropriate standards and you are making unfounded claims as to the item’s properties.

    In a past career I was involved in have items manufactured in China and imported into Australia. We always had the each batch tested in Australia to ensure it met the required standards.

  33. bk @ #135 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 12:18 pm

    This pdf gives a very good explanation of the requirements and properties of external cladding systems. Well worth a look.
    file:///C:/Users/Ken/Downloads/43426_KIP_AUS%20Building%20Facades%20LR.pdf

    Hmmmm… looks like MTBW has been teaching you a few things.
    We can’t access your hard disk.

  34. adrian @ #146 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 12:59 pm

    The political donation system is rotten to the core.
    All donations from companies of any sort should be banned and the amount an individual can donate be severely limited.
    Too many vested interests destroying the public interest.

    So how should political parties be funded?

  35. As I said yesterday, if the Greens are happy to attempt to argue the case that making cuts to legislated school funding is a good thing, then good luck to them. The PBO have acknowledged that they are cuts and even the government in their budget are acknowledging them as savings, so neither the government or the Greens can argue with any credibility otherwise.

  36. peg

    So Rachel Siewert’s motion was a Good Thing but Labor’s reaction to Gonski 2.0 – which you’re saying is The Same – was a Bad Thing?

  37. Peg – The Greens policy:

    While the government refuses to act, there is a way forward. It’s time to hold the big banks accountable for predatory practices that have destroyed lives and families. The Australian people want outcomes, not political point scoring, and our bill will deliver outcomes if Parliament has its priorities straight.

    The difference is that it’s a) modified form of an actual royal commission, and b) it will produce ‘outcomes’?

  38. Z

    No, not at all. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of much of your attacks on the Greens for engaging in the same tactics as Labor does. When Labor does it, it is good and righteous; when the Greens do it, it’s sooooo bad.

  40. ..and, of course, the Greens have been all over the place on Gonski 2.0, so you trying to portray their approach as reasoned is a bit of a stretch.

  41. C1

    Shocking, isn’t ti, the Greens are being realistic about what outcomes can be achieved and have been pragmatically trying a second best option. Something is better than nothing.

    The Greens have always wanted a RC into banking. However, the reality is they are not in government so they continue the fight by tactics available to them.

  42. zoomster @ #170 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 3:03 pm

    ‘ I couldn’t absolutely guarantee i would vote in elections for Labor as my first preference, which I would have to swear to in order to be a member, sorry.’
    Well, I’ve never sworn any such thing.

    Yes you have. If you are a member of the ALP there is a pledge on the membership form. It used to be printed on membership tickets too when they were paper.

  46. Marty,
    It’s not the slur on soccer that bothers me. I’ve lurked on this page for years and Catmomma is someone whose opinions i don’t respect.

    It’s the character assassination based on, what, two posts?

    Yup. Dismiss everything I’ve contributed with a wave of the fingers over the keyboard. Sooo reasonable. Not a ‘character assassination’. At. All.

    So you grew up in Gosford? How long since you’ve been here? Or can you see the Central Coast from your back door in Canberra?

    Actually, if you want to talk about the lack of jobs on the Central Coast then why don’t you sheet home the blame where it should be? At the feet of the Liberals who shut down every program that the Labor Party instituted to create jobs and a pathway to a job while we held the seat of Robertson, as soon as the Coalition took power federally and took the seat of Robertson.

    Also, you may not have noticed it but the Central Coast, even all the way up to Watanobbi (the correct spelling), has been expanding the areas in which jobs are being created, even if hobbled by the Coalition, and when we finally get a democratically-elected Council back after September, we will be working our butts off to get more up here.

    But no, like so many others who want to create an impression when they start commenting after lurking, you come in with your hobnail boots on, eating a very big slice of derision and then spew it back out at someone else here. With nothing more substantial to back it up than that freely-given opinion, after having lurked here.

    Are you trying to say that everyone here should be beyond criticism and we should sit around and sing ‘Kumbayah’? What a boring blog that would be. But it might suit you.

    I can’t help the passion with which I approach our discussions here. The same as many others do too. Or do you have contempt for them and their opinions too because they put down other commenters every now and again, or show them to be ridiculously asserting things that can very easily be proved wrong with evidence to the contrary?

    I notice that your biased opinion against me has also failed to acknowledge the fact that the other semi-new commenter here, ItzaDream, has been warmly embraced by all. Even me. Maybe it’s because they treat the rest of us with respect.

    And, yes, I know how to show respect too. Thanks for asking.

  48. bemused

    I once asked a party official about the pledge and he said it was a bit of bluff. (It’s years since I’ve signed a membership form, so I genuinely can’t remember what’s on it!)

  49. In the UK there is a debate over zero hours contracts. Apparently there are already million people on them. Check out this so in touch Tory MP who ‘knows the pain’ of being on a zero hour contract 🙂

    Tory minister says he understands life on zero-hours contracts because he used to be a…………………………………………………. £250-an-hour barrister

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/tory-dwp-minister-zero-hours-contract-guy-opperman-barrister-250-hour-gig-economy-work-pensions-a7793241.html

  50. In light of the tragic Grenfell fire in London I think it is important to remember that NOT ALL people involved in running council tenancies in the UK are negligent.
    We should remember that there are thousands of landlords who do the right thing.
    It is just a minority who do the wrong thing which results in the deaths of innocent people.
    So really there is no problem.
    We shouldn’t let our anger at a fringe minority turn into Landlordophobia.
    That isn’t fair.
    Perhaps if I put a filter on my facebook profile and sing ‘don’t look back in anger’ enough times this problem will just go away.
    It is possible that those in charge of this tower were turned towards negligence by being subject to nasty landlordaphobic abuse by bigots.
    Or are the vast majority of non-landlords responsible for not assimilating the landlord population?
    Given the fact that NOT ALL landlords are greedy and negligent and that there are millions of people living in council properties throughout the UK who weren’t victims of a fire is there really a problem?
    Oh yeah, and more people die in the UK each year from bathroom related accidents than from fires so we should all calm down and keep this latest incident in perspective.
    I wonder if we can blame this on Trump???

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *