BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Cladding high rise buildings in polyethylene? It is pretty unbelievable.

    I am finding it very hard to read anything about the tower fire because it just makes me so flipping mad!

  2. TrogS,
    It was Labor and Bill Shorten who went into the trenches to retain the RET at a sensible level against Abbott and Greg Rhyming Slang’s attempts to neuter it.

    I am sure Labor, Mark Butler and Bill Shorten, will examine the Coalition’s policy offering when they finally put one up.

    What is the point of jumping up and down about it now when the Coalition haven’t even decided on what they want out of the Finkel Review?

  3. C@t

    I am sure Labor, Mark Butler and Bill Shorten, will examine the Coalition’s policy offering when they finally put one up.

    I am sure they will. My point is that Shorten lacks coherence on the issue. Mark Butler, on the other hand is clear.

  4. And for those who seem to have forgotten the news items about cladding in the last year or so – there was a fire at a unit block in Melbourne that just whooshed up the cladding but didn’t do much if anything inside. The Kensington block seems to have also had some other hazards, like gas pipes, no sprinklers, and only one “staircase” (not clear whether that was proper fire stairs with positive pressure and emergency lighting or just a staircase). Then there was a student accomodation block in Brisbane whose opening was delayed because it had flammable cladding. They made some changes (better sprinklers I think) and let it open. I still think the Feds should use Border FORRRCE to stop the importation of the stuff, but our regulators do seem to be doing better than the Pommie ones.

  5. in my further discussions with those connected to building construction. I was given an example of by passing regulation etc. apparently scaffolding produced in China does not comply with Australian standards, so it was illegal for use on our building sites. turns out that this scaffolding still found its way to Australia via a European country and rebadged as coming from that country and meeting Australian standards. It would not surprise me that some of the cladding used in Australia also found its way via this avenue.
    And a further point. who ultimately holds the responsibility for these infractions. where does the buck stop?


  6. Trog Sorrenson
    Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 9:14 am
    ..
    I am sure they will. My point is that Shorten lacks coherence on the issue. Mark Butler, on the other hand is clear.

    In my view Shorten will win because he knows how to run a team. You let the person responsible do their job. It is Mark Butlers job,

  7. Jack A Randa

    If I were Daniel Andrews, I would be following SA example, and arrange an urgent audit of buildings in Victoria. As far as I am concerned, it doesnt matter who what where and when.
    It is about time, there was some accountability. The developers here in Victoria are making a shitload of cash producing inferior quality apartments.

  8. This is where we need journalists to be out there looking at buildings, question construction company staff, soliciting leaks of doctored importation paperwork etc. Not attending balls and dinners with the very politicians they’re meant to be holding to account.

  9. Frednk
    Power prices will be front and centre at the next election. (Rightly or wrongly.) Shorten, as leader, needs to take leadership in explaining why market reforms and renewable roll out will reduce prices, which will be the exact opposite of what the “clean coal” outfit will be proclaiming.

  10. TrogS,
    I find it extremely trite and oh so convenient for those looking to find a chink in Bill Shorten’s armour that they are now going for the ‘wooden’ and ‘incoherent’ attacks.

    Firstly, if you have seen him speak in person he actually comes across as warm and engaged with audiences. I don’t specifically mean when he is in a room with fellow Labor people, but in his town halls where all and sundry are invited to turn up and speak to him.

    Secondly, it is his job to co-ordinate the various portfolios under his leadership and develop policy, with, as you say, the particular spokesmen and women left to articulate it well.

    That just seems to be the way he operates.

    He doesn’t grandstand and give either glib 3 word slogans, like Abbott did, and still does as he tries to win back the leadership of the Liberal Party from Turnbull, or proto-Churchillian speeches signifying an attempted bamboozling of the electorate, like Turnbull does.

    Sometimes he gets fired-up and passionate, as he was after the 2014 Budget with his Budget-In-Reply speech. Other times he is just quieter and less obvious, preferring to give his opponents enough rope to tie themselves up with.

    He is what he is. Different. So far it has been a successful approach.

    What would be wrong is if he tried to change, in order to try and please the Jack Waterford’s.

  11. Morning all. Regarding the London fire, and the obvious risk of similar fires here, all states should act, on the presumption of federal ineffectiveness. Jay Weatherall has made a good start by ordering an audit of all high rise buildings in SA.

    Yet it needs to go much further than that. The use of flammable PE cladding needs to be banned immediately. At least a dozen countries have already done so (not us). This should also be combined with a regime of testing imported building products, many of which are proving not to meet standards. Chinese materials are not all bad, but Chinese product certification is worthless. Industry self regulation has proven a consistent failure. Our situation is slightly better than UK, but not much.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/16/experts-urge-ban-on-use-of-combustible-materials-in-tower-blocks

  12. Grimace – You’re out “ground game” expert. You might want to read this.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/almost-every-constituency-we-targeted-we-won-inside-story-labour-s-ground

    This reminds me a bit of a famous “death-knocker” who used to work for a London Tabloid. He would knock on the door of the grieving family and, instead of asking questions about the deceased, he would say: “I’ve come to help.”

  13. Trog – Labor won’t have to explain much at all about power prices. People will be paying big bills and will want to toss the Libs out. They won’t care much about Labor’s plans.

  14. As for Theresa May, I agree with others that both the failure to act to prevent such fires, and her woeful response so far, highlights May’s unfitness to govern. An election next weekend would be catastrophic for the CONs.

  15. And on another matter that has been on my mind.
    Isnt it ironic that a white 66 old man, who apparently had an anger management problem and was ultimately homeless, managed to shoot and maim a republican congressman and several other people. And because the congressman had security detail, they managed to shoot the offender, otherwise the carnage would have been worse.
    Has anyone asked the total f wit of Trump, how a muslim ban would have helped with this domestic terrorist. Or was this man not a terrorist, cos he was a white American.
    Just asking for a friend.

  16. And a further point. who ultimately holds the responsibility for these infractions. where does the buck stop?

    Good question and one I’d love to know the answer to.

  17. Victoria,

    Agree completely. It is time , way beyond time, for construction and material supply companies in this country to be held to account.

    The same old lines will be thrown out about how hard it to distinguish between products, how hard to ensure the products are really up to Australian standards etc etc.

    The simple test is if you are paying cheap as shit prices for something then you are buying a cheap as shit and non compliant product. The bottom line / profit driven ideology however continues to convienently ignore this.

    Cheers.

  18. I was gobsmacked that the former Housing Minister, now Immigration Minister (?), in the Tory government in the UK, said that he didn’t want to force builders to install sprinklers in the high rise buildings they were putting up because it might discourage them!

    There’s a shedload of money to be made by developers in putting high rises up. Making them put in a sprinkler system will only reduce their profit margin marginally.

    But that’s what Tories are all about, maximising profit, and that’s what that comment by the Tory Housing Minister belied. Put up big boxes, big boxes, big boxes, made of flammable ticky tacky! It’s only the poor that will be living in them.

  19. Socrates – I strongly suspect that May was just not emotionally strong enough to meet with the victims. She is just a shell of a person right now, hanging on by her fingernails. She’ll be gone soon.

  20. doyley

    we have border security on all sorts of items coming into the country. surely a test can be devised to establish whether building products are made to code and dont for example contain asbestos, and are highly flammable.

  21. ‘Theresa May Struggles To Answer Grenfell Tower Fire Questions In ‘Robotic’ Newsnight Interview’

    After fleeing Kensington, she struggled in a BBC Newsnight interview that was meant to focus on the £5 million aid package for the fire’s victims.

    After May described what victims had told her, Emily Maitlis said people needed to hear her say: “Something has gone badly wrong. It is our fault. We acknowledge that and accept responsibility.”

    “Something awful has happened,” May began. “This is an absolutely awful fire that has taken place.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-grenfell-tower-fire_uk_594449d8e4b06bb7d2732daf?utm_hp_ref=uk

    She was simply trying to avoid legal responsibility! Typical Tory. Thinks of the money and legal aspect before the humane response.

  22. ???

    John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 13h13 hours ago

    Legally, Australia has NO official language (look it up if you don’t believe me). So why must we test immigrants on English? #auspol

  23. C@t, I largely agree about Bill but he does need a voice coach. During the last election I saw him so many times on TV and felt like shouting “say it as if you mean it Bill”. Somehow it comes out wrong – as if he’s saying things without really meaning them. A slight nyah-nyah smartarseness in the tone.
    But I do only mean voice, not media coaching. Media coaching has been the ruination of many a pollie, from Julia down. My workplace sent me for a day of media coaching once and I quickly saw that the theme was “stay on message, don’t be spontaneous, and don’t admit to anything that we’re trying to cover up”. (They did try a huge cover-up of something very embarrassing just a few weeks later. Fortunately someone mentioned it very publicly at an international conference, while I was wondering whether I should have a quiet word with a journo.) When they offered an advanced course in media coaching I declined.

  24. lizzie @ #76 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 9:50 am

    ???

    John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 13h13 hours ago
    Legally, Australia has NO official language (look it up if you don’t believe me). So why must we test immigrants on English? #auspol

    So it’s purely convention that we use English.

    HaHahahahahahahahaha 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I wonder if this fact could lead to a legal challenge regarding any sort of language testing for people applying for citizenship.

  25. Doyley Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 9:42 am
    Victoria,
    Agree completely. It is time , way beyond time, for construction and material supply companies in this country to be held to account.

    *******************************************
    One morning there was a big discussion item on Jon Faine with regard to dodgy Chinese electrical cables that is now in many recently built Australian homes …..

  26. phoenixRed

    thanks for pointing out the electrical cables! this has been well known for several years. the electrical cabling has been used extensively in housing construction.
    My son is an electrician who works in the commercial sector, and this issue was highlighted several years ago in the sector and through the Electrical Trades Union.
    That is another ticking time bomb. sigh…………

  27. “This is where we need journalists to be out there looking at buildings, question construction company staff, soliciting leaks of doctored importation paperwork etc. Not attending balls and dinners with the very politicians they’re meant to be holding to account.”

    True, but unfortunately we have very few journalists left who have the skills, time or inclination to undertake the kind of forensic investigation that is required.

  28. Off the top of my head, there have been several Chinese dodgy building products in the last couple of years.
    Material containing asbestos
    Electrical wiring with faulty​ insulation.
    Steel not at required specs
    Flammable inflammable products
    I’m sure it’s not all the fault of the Chinese, you get what you’re willing to pay for.

  29. Anton
    Regarding May’s fragility, that is probably true, and fits with the BBC interview Cat linked to. She is in total denial. Not admitting the true scale of death toll is bizarre. The locals have already worked out from which families are missing that it is 100 or more. The longer she delays, the worse she will look when it comes out.

    Meanwhile, more and more evidence emerges that past warnings and inquiry findings were buried by the CONs to avoid making developers pay any more. The financial excuses are farcical. London has some of the highest property prices inthe world. The difference in cost between the fireproof cladding (mineral wool) and the flammable plastic one (PE) was £2 per square metre! In a £9 million renovation job, that would have increased costs by perhaps £50,000. Instead 100+ people are dead.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/15/experts-warned-government-against-cladding-material-used-on-grenfell

    In my earlier post, the dozen countries I referred to had banned this PE cladding BEFORE the London fire.

  30. Vic

    we have border security on all sorts of items coming into the country. surely a test can be devised to establish whether building products are made to code and dont for example contain asbestos, and are highly flammable.

    Yes on testing.

    But you need to have the resources allocated to do it.

    We don’t. Bugger all of the containers coming into the country have their contents looked at.

  31. The London fire is a “Third world” style disaster. The sort of thing that happens in places like Bangladesh but not in places like the UK (or Australia). Or maybe they will become more common after more years of austerity.

  32. CTar
    We would not need to test every container arriving in the country. Do the testing at point of use. Go back to having government building certifiers. Test the building materials when certifying the building as safe for habitation. If it fails, no certificate. The builders will then soon make sure the materials pass.

    That is effectively what we do on all road and bridge construction jobs. They rarely fail. If anything does, the certifier is liable, as in the recent case of the South Road tram overpass in Adelaide. Fixed at minimal cost to the public. As an engineer working in public infrastructure projects, I find the standards and regulation of the rest of the building industry disgustingly low, and clearly not in the public interest.

  33. This terrible tragedy is the impetus for our state and fed govts to finally be proactive in an area that has long been deliberately ignored

  34. Shiftaling – you think journalists should have to do actual work? Pfffffffffffft!!

    That’s the job of spin doctors and PR consultants.

    With a few exceptions, contemorary journalism, at least at the senior level, seems to largely involve spell-checking and pressing send.

  35. Is nothing as it seems any more? Sigh.

    Camembert could be heading towards extinction.

    Although supermarket shelves are stocked with wheels of cheese that look like Camembert, many are simply copycats that aren’t made with the same love and affection as the real deal.

    In fact, a recent Bloomberg report uncovered that out of the three hundred and sixty million wheels of ‘Camembert’ made in France each year, just four have true Camembert credentials.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/16/a-camembert-shortage-is-hitting-the-world-this-is-not-a-drill_a_22355014/

  36. C@T
    His name is Gavin Barwell, and sheepish isn’t the half of it.

    Is that sort of decision (exempting fire sprinklers), now with lethal tagged on, isn’t already criminal it should be, with full personal liability. They’ll soon start making the right decisions when they are truly answerable for their actions. Oh that the cladding these politicians wear to keep them out of the clink should be so flammable.

    If not already linked here, I did read that in Germany such cladding was/is restricted to 12m when permitted at all, as that was the limit of the fire hoses reach. And floors above the 12m height had a separate dedicated fire escape. And they were criticised for being too regulatory and Choyman.

    May is tragic, of almost Shakespearian heights, or is that depths.

  37. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/former-fire-chief-says-lacrosse-tower-is-unsafe-20170616-gwsuld.html

    The City of Melbourne’s building surveyor says the Lacrosse building is safe to occupy, provided “interim safety measures” are maintained including keeping balconies clear of clutter and limiting occupancy numbers.

    However a City of Melbourne spokeswoman noted “ultimate responsibility for compliance with occupancy permits” rests with the owners of the apartments.

    It’s understood the owners are mostly investors, many based overseas, who rent out the properties to foreign students and workers.

  38. On Tesla batteries being installed by TransGrid, NSW’s transmission monopoly, and Demand Response ~~

    Demand response is a process where customers are offered financial incentives to curb their power usage at times of peak grid demand and send surplus power from solar panels, batteries, smart thermostats on energy-hungry airconditioners, pool pumps and electric vehicle chargers back to the grid to help avoid blackouts

    TransGrid chief executive Paul Italiano said demand management deployed at scale would help to relieve stress during peak demand around the Sydney CBD. Demand management could also reduce or defer the capital expenditure on TransGrid’s electricity network, ultimately reducing the cost of bills. The batteries are managed remotely and in real time by TransGrid.

    But smelter operators aren’t convinced

    Funny that.

    Google:
    /news/transgrid-to-use-tesla-batteries-in-sydney-trial-20170616-gwskbl#ixzz4kDWH3vI0

  39. Harking back to tree planting in lieu of too tall gums and sun block, I’d add Banksias into the mix, especially along with Don’s Hakeas, and the Silky Oaks (G. robusta).

    B serrata, Old Man Banksia, make wonderful features in the right conditions, and are fire resistant, (I’ve got them by the tens in the house gardens and use their foliage with its serrated edged glossy leaves for indoor displays) and B. integrifolia, Coast Banksia, are more slight but tough as buggery, right conditions again. The parrots and cockies are mad about them, well, their flowers and cones.

    Our pests are the birds, wallabies, and worst of all, yet best of all, lyrebirds. Sacred all, but tough when running an export flower trade.

  40. Lizzie

    If a former fire chief says it is unsafe, I would not ignore him.
    Daniel Andrews should have no trouble getting bi partisan support on this cladding issue. He shouldn’t waste a moment on this

  41. Trump owes lenders at least $315 million — disclosure shows

    President Donald Trump had personal liabilities of at least $315.6 million to German, U.S. and other lenders as of mid-2017, according to a federal financial disclosure form released late on Friday by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

    Trump reported income of at least $594 million for 2016 and early 2017 and assets worth at least $1.4 billion.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/trump-owes-lenders-at-least-315-million-disclosure-shows/

  42. Trump hires another attorney weeks after his lawyer sent out typo-filled criminal defense

    President Donald Trump has hired another attorney just a few weeks after his existing attorney, Marc Kasowitz, sent out a press release riddled with typos.

    According to Politico, John Dowd was hired to be an additional resource to Kasowitz. The new high-profile lawyer represented John McCain during the Keating Five Scandal. He was accused of pressuring the DEA for McCain’s wife Cindy’s drug charges.

    There are currently three investigations involving Trump, two in Congress and one with a special prosecutor. News came last night of Vice President Mike Pence hiring an attorney and even lower level White House staffers must hire attorneys that are costing them $1500 an hour fee. Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen has also hired his own attorney to navigate his ties to Trump.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/trump-hires-another-attorney-weeks-after-his-lawyer-sent-out-typo-filled-criminal-defense/

  43. Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated

    Washington, D.C. is now officially out of lawyers. Emergency legal support is being brought in from New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, etc.

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