Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. By competing with gas peakers, wind power has actually reduced prices in SA compared to where they would otherwise be.

  2. CC
    Shorten needs to realise that voters with solar pv are a huge constituency. Provide them with a vision for establishment of systems to feed into the grid and make money, and he will do very well.

  3. I am sure a few state and territory leaders will not be very happy with the Finkle report given they already have renewerable targets in place and dedicated investment for projects locked in.

    As well, I am sure Shorten and labor had a very good idea what was coming from Finkle so it will be interesting to watch how this debate develops.

    This will now be all about the politics and not effective climate / energy policy. Business as usual.

    Cheers.

  4. Sorry to keep posting but..
    This whole situation offers a massive opportunity for Labor to make inroads into Coalition voters, including in the regions. The future of regional power is in solar pv, wind, batteries and microgrids. Second only to communications as a regional issue.

  6. Cud
    I have nothng against Britain, and hope they can sort it out. Not all doom and gloom – those calling for “hard Brexit” and another Scottish independence vote got tossed out.

    But May is surely gone, and Corbyn has won 30 seats promising reforms to assist the young. Plus the % of young people voting increased a lot. Both sides will have to take that into account. Ironically, the New Britain independent of the EU may have to adopt policies quite similar to the EU norms 🙂

    This minority government may be short lived however. They are only a few by elections away from falling. The CONs have held onto at least a half dozen seats on second or third recounts with margins less thanone percent. They will have to deal with the LDP and/or the ulster unionists to stay in power. So no easy coalition to run.

    Also interesting for Australia. Not so comfy jaunts to the old country to see friends in power for Abbott. And austerity politics is once again on the nose, after Macron won by opposing it too. Left or right, government policy has to change.

  8. @ Trog

    Shorten will yank Brian Trumbles’s chain a few times with offers of bipartisanship, then sit back and watch while the L/NP tear themselves apart.

  9. Trog the problem is educating people that renewables are cheaper.

    Its the same basic ignorance that Labor needs to break over the NBN.

  10. trog sorrenson @ #926 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 2:56 pm

    The Finkel Coal Rejuvenation Plan not good for renewables and gasp“throws gas to the wolves”.
    P1 will be upset.

    I guess you are reading a different report to the one I am reading. Finkel makes it clear that gas will be required to prop up renewables as their market share climbs …

    Battery and pumped hydro storage will be able to support a reliable and secure NEM, as and when they are deployed at scale. For the short to medium-term the NEM is likely to require higher levels of flexible, gas-fired generation to support VRE.

    However, he also makes it clear that neither gas new renewables will be allowed to displace coal at any cost. So far, this report seems to be the worst of all possible outcomes – for everyone except coal generators.

    Still got a lot of reading to do, but it is clear that Finkel has finked out!

  11. Shorten will yank Brian Trumbles’s chain a few times with offers of bipartisanship, then sit back and watch while the L/NP tear themselves apart.

    Yep. Both Shorten and the RWNJs will position themselves so that if Trumble stretched out he would be a couple of mms short of being able to have his toes on one side of the chasm and his fingernails on the other.

  12. Maybe Finkel is trying to make it into a choice between Coal and SMR.

    He seems to quite like SMR as do some a few others in Canberra.

  13. **mms short of being able to have his toes on one side of the chasm and his fingernails on the other.**
    Turnbull can levitate. Just ask him.

  15. Massola’s interpretation of Finkel – be a good consumer and accept the promised fistful of dollars (Fairfax headline):

    Finkel climate review promises lower power bills
    James Massola

  17. The continued instability is a defacto carbon price as it is substantially driving up prices, so paralysis isn’t that bad a thing.

    I don’t think that energy is much of a vote changer in itself, and it is the instability caused by the internal L/NP fighting, and how far into more important issues the fighting spreads (like education) that will shift votes.

  21. “Fairfax have sacked a number of journalists recently.
    Dog knows why Massola wasn’t one of them.”
    Fairfax has a policy to only get rid of the good and capable journalists, as they don’t share the organisation’s desire for inadequacy and lack of ethics. Massola, on the other hand..

  24. Am Blocked on Twitter by Latika Bourke (badge of honour), so can someone put the Tweet by her here please? 🙂

  26. C@t
    May’s flight to the left and surrender on the deficit was huge part of the problem – validated Corbyn’s high spending agenda.

  31. Fairfax have sacked a number of journalists recently.

    Dog knows why Massola wasn’t one of them.

    He’s been a good boy and always does his master’s bidding. He knows to lick the hand that feeds him and he never scratches the furniture. What more could you want in a faithful servant?

  32. So what exactly constituted May’s flight to the left?

    I have rarely heard such unmitigated bullshit.
    As one of the replies said:

    ‘how is cutting NHS,public services, police a flight to the left? you are seriously deluded

    do you know what left is?’

  33. adrian @ #981 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 5:27 pm

    So what exactly constituted May’s flight to the left?
    I have rarely heard such unmitigated bullshit.
    As one of the replies said:
    ‘how is cutting NHS,public services, police a flight to the left? you are seriously deluded
    do you know what left is?’

    A flight to the left from an extreme right position. That’s what it was.

  37. Of course it was misogyny. It could not possibly be due to having crap policies and an even crappier campaign could it ?

  39. Clearly the terror attack in Manchester benefited the Tories in that city.
    “Labour won 90.4% of the vote share in Manchester Gorton. Jesus Christ”

  40. The Drum is beating up Finkel’s plan as a “once in a lifetime opportunity”.
    Lives only last 10 years now?

  43. Sohar
    I had a look at the electorate’s voting history. Loved the name of this Tory candidate in the 1950’s Squire Horace Garlick.

  44. “A flight to the left from an extreme right position. That’s what it was.”

    More a flight to the centre right then.

  48. A highly pertinent comment on what can be learned from the election result in the UK:

    Yes, the Tory campaign was a shambolic, insulting mess, notable only for its U-turns, a manifesto that swiftly disintegrated, robotically repeated mantras which achieved only ridicule. But don’t let media commentators – hostile to Labour’s vision – pretend that the May calamity is all down to Tory self-inflicted wounds. The highest turnout since 1997, perhaps the biggest Labour percentage since the same year – far eclipsing Blair’s total in 2005. Young and previous non-voters coming out in astonishing numbers, not because they though “ooh, Theresa May doesn’t stick to her promises, does she?” Neither can we reduce this to a remainer revolt. The Lib Dems threw everything at the despondent remainer demographic, with paltry returns. Many Ukip voters flocked to the Labour party.

    No: this was about millions inspired by a radical manifesto that promised to transform Britain, to eliminate injustices, and challenge the vested interests holding the country back. Don’t let them tell you otherwise. People believe the booming well-off should pay more, that we should invest that money in schools, hospitals, houses, police, and public services, that all in work should have a genuine living wage, that young people should not be saddled with debt for aspiring to an education, that our utilities should be under the control of the people of this country. For years, many of us have argued that these policies – shunned, reviled even in the political and media elite – had the genuine support of millions. And today that argument was decisively vindicated and settled.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-prime-minister-labour

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