The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.
Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.
The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.
We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).
Well, I’ve scanned the entire Finkel report, and I can’t find any mention of an actual emissions threshold for generators. Without this, the whole document seems a little pointless, since it is not clear whether gas – or even coal – would be considered ‘clean’ enough to qualify for the ‘Clean Energy Target’.
The threshold was widely reported as being 700 kg/MWH. Did I blink and miss it?
Nothing’s changed in Brit elections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJVROcKFnBQ
It’s official, the Victorian Labor government consists entirely of Trotskyites, communists and socialists…Nicholas should join up tomorrow…
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4719311/firefighters-split-likened-to-apartheid/?cs=11
Although I did find this …
Of course, the whole report was about price not emissions.
I am so disappointed. Finkel should be ashamed.
Earlier this week there were several responses to a post I made about how the problems in the Middle East were down to the Sunni sect and the respondents were on about how it was a fringe group and not the Sunnis as a whole that were a problem. I would like to point these people to the Saudi football team.
Player One
Lesson learned? Never put all your eggs in one basket.
I think apologies are due to some, don’t you think so? Or have the past few months been a complete waste of time?
Lord Buckethead – that would be the character who looks like Darth Vadar with a Ned Kelly mask and cricket pads.
At least the British produced a leader capable of challenging the tired old orthodoxes.
I hope Shorten doesn’t fold in the wake of the Finkel con.
dovey @ #1004 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:17 pm
No it is not simply the Sunnis.
It is the Wahhabi’s who are a fundamentalist sect within the Sunnis.
IMHO they should be declared a terrorist organisation and treated accordingly as should any state harbouring them.
Most Sunnis are not Wahhabis and are not extremists. They are about 80% of Muslims and some are my friends.
Steve777
This bloke (well in the pic): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-09/lord-buckethead-fishfinger-elmo-raving-loony-part-uk-election/8605086
As far as I can understand J. Corbyn’s platform was straight down the middle, progressive, democratic socialist policies – not mad left looney stuff. So why the hair tearing from many of the Labour party and the (so-called) left leaning press?
I heard some commentators say that Sinn Fein do not vote in the UK parliament, even though they (now) hold 7 seats. What would happen if they did? Would that push a left alliance over the line? And, at the same time stick it to the DUP!
There are about 1.2 billion Sunni Muslims in the world. Sunni is not a ‘sect’ but a major division of Islam, along with the Shia who comprise most of the remainder of Muslims. Within these broad divsions there are different streams and sects, as there are in Christianity. The Wahhabi are one of the more fundamentalist streams of Sunni Islam, mostly based in Saudi Ariaba and the Gulf states, comprising less than 1% of the total Muslim population worldwide.
booleanbach @ #1010 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:24 pm
I agree.
The sort of policies that the likes of McTernan and his fellow Blairites have crab-walked away from. I hope it is the end of them.
kezza2 @ #1005 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:19 pm
No, not at all. Much of what Finkel says supports what I have been saying for months – i.,e. renewables are not yet ready to solve the problem. But Finkel does not propose any way forward. It is being reported (e.g. by the ABC) that he supports a CET. He does not. He goes to great lengths to say that either a CET or an EIS could reduce emissions by 28% (for goodness sake – even ‘business as usual’ does that!), and that an EIS would reduce emissions more than a CET. But this is all just peanuts, as even the solar warriors here would agree. A 28% reduction in the electricity generation sector is not even going to allow us to meet our nationwide Paris targets, since everyone had assumed that the electricity sector (being the sector easiest to reduce) would do much of the heavy lifting for the rest of the economy, which is nowhere near being able to reduce by 28%. Even Finkel acknowledges that.
This report has been so ‘politicised’ that it has ended up saying virtually nothing.
zoomster @ #1002 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:13 pm
Is there an organisation with a bigger chip on their shoulder than the Victorian CFA management ?
Shorten has already made qualified noises about supporting a CET.
This is fertile ground for wedging Turnbull regardless of what else happens.
I would suspect, given that Finkel’s report appears to be even wussier than expected in terms of providing any realistic guide to meeting even the weak Paris commitments, that Labor will demand much more in terms of supporting actual legislation, particularly if the legislation avoids using regulation to set targets and thresholds given that not being able to adjust these by regulation make it much harder to rejig to be more in line with Labor’s goals. Also the reliability requirements on generators seem pretty onerous, unnecessary and inefficient so I’d hope Labor would have some objections there (although those may be setting up a wedge for the government to try to use on the ALP in terms of accusations that Labor are voting for SA style blackouts).
Meh. Maybe the best Shorten can do for now is offering enough bipartisanship to really screw Turnbull while demanding answers on how Paris can be achieved given the Finkel report seems to have nothing useful to say on that. If that allows Labor to be on the right side of the politics while either destroying Turnbull or stringing things out until gaining power in 18 months or so … That strategy requires finding their own solution that will get through whatever Senate they may face in 2019.
Doesn’t it feel great to just be ticking off a few more wasted years of inaction?
rex douglas @ #1015 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:42 pm
You idiot!
That is the ravings of a LNP politician, not CFA management.
Mexico Former President Vicente Fox with a great sense of humour!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZKrn7Bbl8
trog sorrenson @ #925 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 2:53 pm
Surely, surely they will be overtaken by events?
This is laughable.
I am reminded of Trump pulling out of Paris, and California and others doubling down on it.
Steve777 and Bemused, again, what do you think of the Saudi football team?
The CFA volunteers will be mainly farmers and small business – i.e. “National Party” supporters. Good on them for volunteering to fight fires in their region, and elsewhere. However they should have no say on the working conditions of the professionals.
If his report actually says this then Finkel is wrong, in fact, just like you. But given your talent for misrepresentation, I’ll reserve judgement.
bemused @ #1017 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:44 pm
Settle down bemused, I realise that. The CFA being the old anti-unioners they are have their representatives in parliament squealing about their loss of control.
Given CFA management scandals such as Fiskville and Black Saturday it’s overdue for reform. Strong leadership from Daniel Andrews.
dovey @ #1020 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:47 pm
If I may, I thought their was disgracefully disrespectful.
their conduct
I don’t follow Soccer so I’ve only heard the reports second hand. Assuming that the Saudi team were properly briefed about the minute’s silence before the game, I thought that their apparent refusal to observe it was inappropriate and disrepectful.
simon katich @ #961 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 4:13 pm
OK, I give up. I have googled and cannot work out what SMR is.
*******
Shingled magnetic recording, a computer hard disk storage method with partially overlapping tracks introduced in the 2010s
Small modular reactor
Small multidrug resistance protein, a family of integral membrane proteins that confer drug resistance
Specialized Mobile Radio
Square matricial representation, a type of matrix representation of polynomials
Steam methane reforming, a method of producing hydrogen
Surface movement radar, used on airports to observe taxiing aircraft
Symbolic Music Representation, used in MPEG-4 Part 3 and defined in MPEG-4 Part 23
SMR classification, a rock mass classification
***********
cud chewer @ #1022 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:51 pm
Have you read the report yet?
dovey @ #1020 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:47 pm
Disgraceful.
Saudia Arabia is very heavily under Wahhabi influence/domination and this is a manifestation.
Booleanbach
The only crying within Labour was from Blairites. They sure as hell will be crying now as Corbyn has a mandate to put them where they belong.
poroti @ #1030 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:06 pm
I hope Corbyn has enough new members in Parliament to strengthen his hand in the Parliamentary Party. It contained a nest of Blairite vipers before the election.
Good to see Daniel Andrews getting positive reaction at COAG re tightening up parole conditions and airport security.
Strong leadership in these war times.
rex douglas @ #1032 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:20 pm
Anti-terrorist measures are apparently adequate as the current risk of death from terrorism is currently far less than death from falling out of bed, bee-sting, shark attack or lightning strike.
We need a little perspective on things.
One of the problems is that every nutter will now try to seize the terrorist cloak to gain more attention. e.g. the Lindt Cafe perpetrator and the Brighton perpetrator. I do not believe either was any more than a criminal, with mental health and drug problems, who engaged in attention seeking.
Hola Bludgers!
I was just listening to an interview with Phillip Williams while I was in the car and he said that the latest out of 10 Downing Street is that Theresa May has let it be known that she will not be stepping down!
As my son said, “I don’t think it’s her decision to make any more.” 🙂
Well Mrs May is apparently about to be received by her majesty to form a laughable minority Govt with the ulster unionists.
This Govt won’t last long.
“I hope Corbyn has enough new members in Parliament to strengthen his hand in the Parliamentary Party. It contained a nest of Blairite vipers before the election.”
Indeed. Hopefully these people have nowhere to hide now, though I’m sure that they’ll invent some rationale that tries to invalidate Corbyn’s ‘victory’.
Speaking of which, what would we do without the insight of journalists.
I innocently walked into the lounge room to hear Lisa Millar on ABC news gravely intoning that this was exactly the result that May didn’t want.
No kidding Einstein! And what about what the voters want?
Rex Douglas
The Tories hopping into bed with the “Paisley Party” pretty LOL.
“Well Mrs May is apparently about to be received by her majesty to form a laughable minority Govt with the ulster unionists.
This Govt won’t last long.”
Their first demand will be the expulsion of Catholics from Ireland.
rex douglas @ #1035 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:29 pm
She probably rushed to Buck Palace before anyone got the chance to knife her.
adrian @ #1036 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:30 pm
Steady on Adrian, you are agreeing with me far too much lately, it is not good for my heart!
Now what can we argue about. 😉
Bill Shorten must grow a beard!
bemused @ #1033 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:26 pm
Sadly the extremist IS organisation is very successful in the worldwide recruitment of disaffected youth (mental/drug issues).
There’s no getting away from the fact that this phenomenon is spreading so measures have to be put in place to resist the violence as much as possible.
It’s sad that it’s infiltrated our relatively peaceful lives but the unavoidable fact is that it has to be addressed.
Stan Grant trying to whip up terrorist fear and loathing in Bourke St Melbourne.
poroti @ #1037 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:33 pm
Henry VIII is sleeping peacefully…
‘Stan Grant trying to whip up terrorist fear and loathing in Bourke St Melbourne.’
It’s pathetic, but he’s got the ABC memo.
Perhaps we can argue about the ABC?
Don
Finkel has lost all credibility. The review doesn’t seem to cite many viable data sources, or work from basic principles, as you would expect the chief scientist to do. Instead he just seems to be balancing the vested interests of all the players – except the planet.
Here is a classic example of his incompetence, and that of his sources:
This completely ignores the historic annual growth rate of solar, and uses info from an organisation, the Australian Energy Market Operator, which has been part of the system mismanagement problem we now have.
Note following:
1) Global growth rate for solar pv overall is 46% over at least the last 10 years.
2) Solar pv growth rate has been at least 46% annually in Australia since 2011 (http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses)
AEMO’s forecast of 350% by 2036 assumes a 6.5% annual growth in solar pv. Which is insane.
What Finkel needs to explain is why solar pv roll-out is going to drop to only 6.5% annual growth, when we have the highest electricity prices in the world, and solar and battery costs are dropping like a stone.
adrian @ #1045 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:41 pm
You’re on!
Some really dumb producer thought a bit of tabloidism needed to boost ratings more likely.
You really should go to the ABC website and read all their directives.
Evening all.
Well, well, amazing scenes in Britain and crazy scenes from the US. Whoever said politics is boring?!
I hope Corbyn has enough new members in Parliament to strengthen his hand in the Parliamentary Party.
Even the dumbest most anti Corbyn MPs will know that at best they need to bide their time. The smart ones will see that he offers them great opportunity. Any attempt to challenge him in the next year would be smashed even more comprehensibly than the last one. The membership would rip the heart out of any Labour MP that tried that shit on.