Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Its pretty sad to see the Chief Scientist being asked to put his name to a report that isn’t scientific, isn’t “best of class” and relies upon out of date figures from elsewhere.

    The other thing P1 doesn’t get is this. If someone comes out with a report based on a specific carbon reduction and then says “to get to this point, we need X amount of renewables” this does NOT prove that if you wanted a higher reduction that renewables with storage won’t or can’t get you there. P1 has leapt to this conclusion several times, and not just with Finkel.

    Just garbage logic, and frankly dishonest.

  2. AR in a way its a good thing that the Trump scandal will drag on and on.
    The more it prevents the Republicans from “getting the job done” and the more it pisses off decent people, the better chance there is that the Republicans can be blocked by mid term.

  3. Question,
    May sounding more and more like Turnbull.

    That is EXACTLY what I thought! They both act as if they are commanding huge majorities in parliament and are streets ahead in popularity with the electorate! Probably thinking that if they keep on acting that way eventually the electorate will come around to their way of thinking!

    Plus, this belief, as evidenced also by Finkel today, that if they just look like they are, ‘getting on with the job’, the electorate will forget how they just voted and acknowledge that they are, indeed, the best ones to be doing the job of Prime Minister. Plus approve of whatever jerry-built policy they place before them.


  4. player one @ #1131 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    zoomster @ #1128 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:45 pm

    P1 doesn’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that scientists can be influenced by their pay packet, and that looking at who commissioned a report and what they asked for from it is important in assessing its worth, not just who wrote it.

    Oh, just like the CSIRO then?

    The CSIRO, like all our public institutions, to the detriment of our society, is a shadow of the great institution it once was.

    Years of politicisation, stacking of management positions with stooges of the incumbent government and the cumulative impact of budget cuts and “efficiency” dividends has crippled an institution that was once much greater than the current CSIRO.

    The current CEO represents a plague that has overcome many of our universities, one that infects research institutions with the focus only on fields of endeavour which are judged to be likely to result in a payday in the near term or are considered politically desirable (like CCS).

    So, yes P1, sadly our politicians have directed the CSIRO to compromise itself by the requirement to pursue commercial returns. The example of this which sprung to mind when I first read your post was a high profile diet book that the CSIRO allowed itself to be associated with a few years back.

  5. This gets to the heart of it:

    Snap verdict on May’s speech:

    Theresa May sounded steelier and much stronger in her speech at 10 Downing, compared to her middle of the night statement at her constituency count.

    But already there are signs the faults that led to this disaster are not being addressed, including a willingness to accept that when things go wrong, change is required.

    Iain Martin ✔ @iainmartin1
    Understand the broad message – govt carries on. BUT not even a couple of paragraphs properly acknowledging her failure/reverse? Weird.
    10:04 PM – 9 Jun 2017

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    She effectively said NOTHING about her failure. Nothing about minority government. Nothing about the trouble she has got herself in
    9:56 PM – 9 Jun 2017

    Samira Shackle @samirashackle
    Did anyone tell Theresa May that she lost the election?
    9:55 PM – 9 Jun 2017

  6. TTFAB,
    That is a rather negative characterisation of the Major Government. They started with a majority that was closely fought, not nearly universally predicted and certain leadership.

    …And then they promptly started falling apart. That is what the commentator was alluding to.

  7. In 1992 the Tories had a majority of 10 (Australian definition: number more than half) and then 13 Unionists (9UUP who they dealt with after loosing their majority).

    (Presuming they loose Kensington, which apparently they are going to) They have a minority of 8 (But only 4 in the 99.999999%certain even that the 7 Sinn Fein MPs-elect don`t take their seats), 10 DUP and a single independent Unionist. That is only 8 by-elections (they can survive but not legislate if they loose 7) (4 without Sinn Fein) between them nd having to negitiate with the LibDems (second Brexit referendum fun).

  8. I wonder if the ‘strong and stable leadership’ line actually worked on anyone and if they regret their vote now.

  9. But they have all made sure they know where the life boats are located –

    Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, Davis and Fallon to stay on

    The following Cabinet posts have been confirmed by No 10:

    Chancellor of the Exchequer – Philip Hammond
    Home Secretary – Amber Rudd
    Foreign Secretary – Boris Johnson
    Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union – David Davis
    Defence Secretary – Sir Michael Fallon

  10. LOL –

    Damian Thompson ✔ @holysmoke

    Lib Dems were gifted a Labour Party led by an ancient Trot disowned by his MPs.

    They won 12 seats and a place next to UKIP in the graveyard.

    12:27 AM – 10 Jun 2017

  11. Here’s How Trump Made His Problems Worse By Taking Legal Action Against Comey

    Moments after it was reported that President Trump’s personal lawyer Marc Kasowitz is going to file a complaint against former FBI Director James Comey, Norm Eisen of CREW announced “This is an abuse of process and we will be filing a defense of Comey.”

    But what has Trump done with this lawsuit? He’s officially declared war on the FBI. Like an idiot who still thinks he’s in control and still thinks the real problem is he’s not leaning on people hard enough.

  12. The Climate Council is not impressed with the Finkel report:

    “Dear Mark,
    The long awaited Finkel Review into Australia’s electricity market has launched today.

    And it’s a mixed bag.

    Australians across the board are desperate for a policy solution, which can address climate change and tackle emissions from our ageing, inefficient and polluting electricity sector. Ultimately, it was hoped that the Finkel Review would seriously address these issues.

    But disappointingly – the Finkel plan does not pass the climate test. Ultimately if the scheme goes ahead emission reductions must be much stronger.

    What does the Finkel Review recommend?

    The Review’s “blueprint” sets out to reduce emissions in the electricity sector – 28% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. We need to slash emissions further and faster. Other sectors such as building, agriculture and transport, will need to do more if the electricity sector does less. (my emphasis)

    The Review also proposes introducing a Clean Energy Target between 2020 to 2030, to encourage new power plants to be built. The target would be similar to the current Renewable Energy Target, except that it would allow a broader range of power plants to qualify including renewable energy, gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage.

    Additionally, the review confirms that Australia has huge opportunities in renewable power, as renewables are now our cheapest source of new power. It also highlights the importance of coupling solar and wind with battery storage and other storage technologies.

    What’s the bottom line?

    Our emissions and electricity prices are going up due to a long term vacuum in Australia’s climate policy. What Finkel has proposed will need to be significantly strengthened to meet the demands of climate science.

    Want to hear more? Tune in to Q&A on Monday night where I’ll be appearing as a panelist alongside Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist and author of the Finkel Review, and Federal Environment & Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg. It’s sure to be an interesting discussion.

    Kind regards,
    Amanda McKenzie
    Climate Council CEO

  13. Hi C@..

    However, what I would like him to do is get bolshy about some Corbynite policy!

    He’s still alive… hes’s just been encased in Corbynite!


  14. A Bernie Sanders supporter shot and killed police in Baton Rouge.
    A Bernie Sanders supporter tried to grab a cops gun at a Trump rally.
    A Bernie Sanders supporter stabbed and killed people in Portland.
    A Bernie Sanders supporter shot Republican politicians in Alexandria.

    Let me guess. It’s Trumps fault?

    Thankfully that nasty bitter old goose will never hold a position of power.
    Unfortunately his race-baiting, anti-police, anti-establishment (from a fraud who has spent his adult life sucking off the public teat) rhetoric is seeing people die.

    His lame press release is in stark contrast to the histrionics we saw when one of his supporters was punched by a Trump supporter during the presidential campaign.

    The regressive left acting like hypocrites.
    Who would of guessed?

    Watch and contrast these hypocrites reaction to the shooting of Gabby Giffords to this recent shooting.

    I don’t know if people here realise the tinder box atmosphere currently in the US.
    It is dangerously toxic and BOTH sides of politics are responsible.
    BOTH sides need to pull their bloody heads in because more people are going to be hurt and killed.

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