Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Good Morning.

    Given the different results of Essential compared to Newspoll and that private Galaxy polls on SSM it makes me wonder how socially conservative the sample is.

    I cant see the other polls wording questions in a different way to be getting the opposite result. Its certainly an interesting difference between the different polling methods.

  3. The End Is Coming As Republicans Are Unnerved And Questioning Covering Up For Trump

    The reality is starting to dawn on Republicans that they don’t know what Trump and his campaign did with Russia, so blindly covering for him might not be such a good idea.

    With midterm elections coming next year, Republicans are figuring out that what they don’t know about Trump and Russia could kill them, and if the choice comes down to control of Congress or Trump, Republicans are going to save their seats and abandon the president.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/06/coming-republicans-unnerved-questioning-covering-trump.html

  4. GOP Senator Gets Desperate And Claims Trump Is Too Incompetent to Collude with Russia

    Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and a former senior Trump campaign official say Trump couldn’t have colluded with Russia because he doesn’t even collude with his own staff.

    Don’t fall for the Trump is an idiot defense, or the attempts to blame all of the various people around him. The poison is coming from the top, and while Trump is wildly incompetent at the job of being a statesman and an adult man, he is really good as a con artist and showman.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/06/gop-senator-floats-desperate-excuse-trump-incompetent-collude-russia.html

  5. I forgot to sdd. Maybe the Essential method shows the difference in how resistant the samp
    E is to telling pollsters they have changed their position once having told pollsters their view on the issue before.

    Its of course speculation on my part as I have no explanation for the difference.

  6. James Comey Is Going To Do Something More Devastating Than Accusing Trump Of A Crime

    Comey is going to do something worse for Trump than accusing him of obstruction of justice. The former FBI Director is going to refute Trump’s claims and share his concerns about the President.

    Although Comey has told associates he will not accuse the President of obstructing justice, he will dispute the president’s contention that Comey told him three times he is not under investigation.

    The facts and details about their conversations are worse for Trump than any opinion or allegation. Comey isn’t going to accuse Trump of anything, but his testimony could provide more pieces to the puzzle that Trump won’t be able to dismiss with a few early morning tweets.

    The evidence will be worse for Trump than any allegation that James Comey could ever offer.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/06/james-comey-accusing-trump-crime.html

  10. Four top law firms turned down requests to represent Trump

    Top lawyers with at least four major law firms rebuffed White House overtures to represent President Trump in the Russia investigations, in part over concerns that the president would be unwilling to listen to their advice, according to five sources familiar with discussions about the matter.

    The unwillingness of some of the country’s most prestigious attorneys and their law firms to represent Trump has complicated the administration’s efforts to mount a coherent defense strategy to deal with probes being conducted by four congressional committees as well as Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/four-top-law-firms-turned-requests-represent-trump-122423972.html

  14. CNN Politics
    1 hr ·
    “I don’t know how (White House staffers) get up every morning and say, ‘I have one of the most responsible jobs I will ever hold, and the President just tweeted something I would ground my 16-year-old for saying,'” Rep. Jim Himes says.

    Indeed!

  15. Lizzie

    Yes. When the UK election is about throwing human rights out as election headlines are the same measures Dutton is doing its not going to go well for him

  16. Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor · 11h11 hours ago

    If our parliamentary leadership jumps to attention every time @4corners exposes the facts what could happen if we had Federal ICAC to help

  17. Lizzie

    The LNP have at minimum to bring in the foreign donations ban. James Clapper was just on ABC news saying they are a sovereign risk to Australia’s Sovereignty.

    Yes the same James Clapper that has just testified as the person in charge of the CIA as the Russian hack of the US election happened.

  18. Latest French parliamentary polling has a looming MacronSlide

    France, Ipsos poll:

    REM+-ALDE: 400
    LR-EPP: 115
    PS-S&D: 30
    FI-LEFT: 17
    FN-ENF: 10

    #Legislatives2017

  19. RVAwonk: Trump’s blocking of Twitter users violates U.S. Constitution reut.rs/2r2OBB9

    https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/872191574595207174

    Australian Public Servants may want to use this to defend their rights. Its not a binding precedent in Australia but could be looked at as an indicator by courts here. Is blocking public servants speaking out on twitter blocking political free speech?

  24. Malcolm Turnbull is Prime Minister now. Only he can bring legislation to parliament to ban foreign donations. Thus far he has refused to do it and has said he has no plans to do so in the future. Yet the media want to concentrate on Labor for some reason. It is just getting so ridiculous that the next thing you know they will accuse former PM Kevin Rudd of being a Chinese plant!

  26. *******
    Guytaur
    #1548 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 10:07 pm
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/05/renewable-energy-deniers-and-the-decline-of-nuclear-power/

    ****************

    From the link Guytaur posted:

    Nuclear electricity generation in 2015 was 8.2 per cent below the historic peak in 2006;

    Nuclear power’s share of global commercial primary energy consumption was 4.4 per cent in both 2014 and 2015 ‒ the lowest level since 1984;

    Nuclear’s share of global electricity generation ‒ 10.7 per cent in 2015 (compared to renewables’ 23.7 per cent) ‒ has declined from a historic peak of 17.6 per cent in 1996; and
    since 2000, countries have added 646 GW of wind and solar capacity (combined) while nuclear capacity (not including the idled reactors in Japan) fell by 8 GW.

  29. Latika M Bourke
    9 mins ·
    Two Australians killed in the London terror attack, confirms Foreign Minister Julie Bishop MP. The wonderfully brave nurse Kirsty Boden is one of those senselessly murdered.

  30. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Forgive some of my comments this morning. The Australian is in full right wing dudgeon today and Trump has got the better of me!

    The 28-year-old Australian nurse was running to help victims of the stabbing and van attack when she was fatally injured. Yet this dangerous fool of a US president carries on like a child. towards London. It makes my blood boil. Could you just imagine the response in a US city if a similar attack occurred?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/australian-nurse-kirsty-boden-killed-in-london-bridge-attack-family-confirms-20170606-gwlw4r.html
    Not satisfied with his efforts on the UK attack he turns his fat little tweeting fingers on the Middle East, probably further inflaming the situation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-jumps-into-worsening-dispute-between-qatar-and-powerful-arab-bloc-20170606-gwlxyt.html
    Trump’s Twitter attacks on the Mayor of London reveal how pitiful he really is.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/trumps-twitter-attacks-sadiq-khan-pitiful-president
    And now the Trump administration warned Tuesday that it could pull out of the UN Human Rights Council unless the body ends what Washington calls the whitewashing of dictators’ abuses and unfair attacks on Israel. Right after Trump sucking up to Saudi Arabia and Duterte, both champions of human rights.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-warns-it-may-pull-out-of-un-human-rights-body-over-abuses-treatment-of-israel-20170606-gwlwvn.html
    Meanwhile Trump surrogate Rex Tillerson got what was described as a “warm” welcome in New Zealand.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/nz-flips-us-secretary-state-rex-tillerson-the-bird-20170606-gwli5g.html
    Michael Pascoe with some soothing words about the Aussie economy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dont-fret-the-gdp-score–watch-the-game-instead-20170606-gwldsu.html
    Is Aldi engaging in wage theft? If so I hope the authorities come down on them like a ton of bricks!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/retail-giant-aldi-faces-claims-of-wage-theft-and-breaking-the-law-20170601-gwi6l8.html
    Up to half of all Australian teachers are leaving the profession in the first five years, and new research conducted by the Hunter Institute of Mental Health suggests the problem could be in the way the school day is structured.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/why-up-to-half-of-all-australian-teachers-are-quitting-within-five-years-20170605-gwks31.html
    Was the Melbourne siege the act of a terrorist? No, he ‘s just a dead crook, says John Silvester.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/terrorists-crave-the-attention-of-those-they-claim-to-despise-20170606-gwlbk6.html

  32. Section 3 . . .

    Of course The Australian gets right behind Turnbull’s demands to the states to “fix the parole system”. Google.
    /in-depth/terror/turnbull-demands-states-fix-parole-for-terror-suspects/news-story/b886b565964e0aceda7b5b307ccce386
    The workplace umpire has given 2.3 million of Australia’s lowest-wage workers their biggest pay increase in recent years by throwing out a pervasive economic myth – to the dismay of employers.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2017/06/06/minimum-wage-decision/
    From Michael West – Imagine if there was a company which received millions of dollars in government grants each year, paid no tax as it held charitable status, owned recruitment agencies and also owned a law firm which fought against penalty rates for young workers and workplace leave for victims of domestic violence. There is such a company. It is called the NSW Business Chamber Limited. It’s Australia’s richest union he says.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/unveiled-australias-richest-union/
    To understand Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord we only need to follow the money behind climate change denial.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trump-the-paris-climate-agreement-and-scrooge-mcduck,10369
    The SMH editorial says that crook politicians like Eddie Obied should not get near a parliamentary pension.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/obeid-macdonald-parliamentary-pensions-20170606-gwl91d.html
    Government lawyers trying to defend President Donald Trump’s travel ban in court might be excused if they decide they are stuck with the world’s worst client.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/06/trump-s-new-thoughts-on-travel-ban-are-making-his-lawyers-lives_a_22128606/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Andrew Leigh will warn in a speech today that competition in Australia is getting worse, with too many industries dominated by three or four firms and fewer new businesses starting up as a consequence.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/07/labor-flags-plan-to-crack-down-on-non-compete-clauses-for-employees
    And you wonder why I won’t have a bar of Apple!
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/06/iphone-ipad-apps-games-apple-5-5c-obsolete
    Regulators will have to get on top of blockchain transactions. Google.
    /technology/data61-reports-blockchain-will-have-a-profound-impact-on-the-economy-20170605-gwktp9

  33. Section 4 . . .

    Peter Hartcher on the ideals of terrorism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/london-terror-attack-a-new-phase-of-desperation-for-extremists-20170606-gwlwdc.html
    This expert in Security Law tells us what might be ahead with respect to “smart policing”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smart-policing-can-improve-police-efficiency-20170606-gwlsog.html
    Here we go! Public spaces that attract crowds are set to receive security upgrades, such as physical barriers, bag screenings and possibly heavier police presences under proposed national counter-terrorism measures.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/brighton-siege-and-london-attack-public-spaces-face-security-upgrades-across-nation-amid-terror-fears-20170606-gwlo1i.html
    John Quiggin describes asset recycling as the last gasp of a failed model.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/07/asset-recycling-may-look-new-and-exciting-but-its-the-last-gasp-of-a-failed-model
    The nation’s most prestigious universities have launched a savage attack on the Turnbull government’s higher education proposals, decrying them as a “contradictory, incoherent mess” developed on the “back of an envelope”. That’s quite a spray!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/incoherent-mess-elite-universities-go-nuclear-on-turnbull-governments-reforms-20170605-gwl6lw.html
    Opioid addiction in Ohio is out of control and the government there is going after the pharmaceutical manufacturers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/with-opioid-crisis-centre-stage-ohio-sues-oxycotin-and-percocet-drugmakers-20170606-gwle18.html
    Elizabeth Knight opines that despite all the fanfare the Adani coal project is no closer to lift-off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/adani-project-no-closer-to-liftoff-despite-fanfare-20170606-gwlkf9.html
    Yes it’s time for Adani to put up or shut up. Google.
    /news/politics/time-for-adani-to-put-its-money-where-its-mouth-is-20170606-gwlpf1
    Andrew Bolt has thrown, and apparently landed, blows on protesters at a book launch.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrew-bolt-sprayed-with-sticky-liquid-with-glitter-in-alleged-assault-in-melbourne-20170606-gwlw84.html

  34. Section 5 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1
    The life of a registered nurse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/i-was-there-when-your-heart-stopped-beating-20170606-gwl9vn.html
    Eryk Bagshaw writes that Australians are some of the most pessimistic people in the world, a global study has found, with seven out of 10 believing their kids will end up worse off than they are.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/seven-out-of-10-australians-believe-their-kids-will-be-worse-off-20170605-gwkegp.html
    This contribution from Bill O’Chee on a court finding against a big coal company is well worth reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-hermit/the-queensland-town-that-refuses-to-die-a-mining-death-20170606-gwlvhe.html

    Alan Moir reckons Morrison is on the improve.

    A great job from Broelman here.

    Oh dear!

    Cathy Wilcox and the future for the next generations.

  35. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    David Rowe has a good understanding of Adani.

    Ron Tandberg and Trump’s “official” tweets.

    More from Ron Tandberg with poor Tony Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Andrew Dyson and Trump’s priorities.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Jon Kudelka comes in behind Dyson.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cartoons/kudelka/image-gallery/8d1d6295a5d4de435ee608ff718b2351
    Simon Letch and Trump’s “C-words”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html
    Mark Knight has a crack at Dastyari. Now let’s see if he does one on Andrew Robb.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7c8f77e6b9b50d5a0db11aafa7cf0cce?width=1024

  36. Let’s try again.

    Section 2a . . .

    Here’s Massola on Shorten’s defence of Sam Dastyari if you feel inclined to read it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/youve-had-six-questions-bill-shorten-defends-sam-dastyaris-china-links-20170606-gwligo.html
    Michelle Grattan considers what 4 Corners showed us about the influence of certain Chinese interests.
    https://theconversation.com/chinese-influence-compromises-the-integrity-of-our-politics-78961
    Turnbull spent the last week of Parliament repeating the same diatribe in ever-increasing volume says Mungo MacCallum. He’s yelling and gesticulating but signifying nothing.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-turnbulls-yelling-and-gesticulating-signifying-nothing,10371
    Nick O’Malley writes that if major party politicians want to survive they need to embrace serious reform on the matter of political donations .
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-major-party-politicians-want-to-avoid-oblivion-they-will-embrace-donation-reform-20170606-gwleuv.html
    Are the days of the three word slogan in politics numbered? Theresa May might give us the answer to this question tomorrow.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/has-the-threeword-slogan-finally-had-its-day-20170606-gwl6yo.html

  37. Section 2b . . .

    Pontificating Paul Kelly writes that the world can’t afford Theresa May to fail. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/uk-election-the-world-cannot-afford-for-theresa-may-to-fail/news-story/bf2c86b1003b92444fb1dc58ff133a91
    On the UK election George Monbiot says, “The Labour leader’s improved performance and raft of popular policies have given me an unfamiliar feeling as I prepare to go to the polls: optimism”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/vote-jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-policies
    From Mark Kenny – Meet the new Malcolm Turnbull. Steely jawed. Resolute. Alert and alarmed as he tells Australians they face “a growing threat from Islamist terrorism”. As I read this ABC24 had on a guy quite deftly defending the parole system and its performance. Turnbull was just descending to crass populism yesterday IMHO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/london-attack-and-brighton-siege-malcolm-turnbull-toughens-talk-against-terrorists-20170606-gwl8vf.html
    Meanwhile Theresa May goes tough tough tough. She is threatening to rip up human rights laws.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/06/theresa-may-rip-up-human-rights-laws-impede-new-terror-legislation

  40. William, FYI, even your newest posts aren’t appearing for me if I’m not logged in. Not a complaint, just an observation. Cheers.

  41. Catmomma
    I agree Turnbull is PM now and he can bring legislation to ban foreign donations and/or have a federal ICAC. Gillard and Rudd could have done so too. But Shorten could bring a private members bill to the same effect, offering Labor support. On the evidence available, neither seems likely. For every Driscol or Sinodinos in the Liberal party, there is a Thomson or Dastyari in Labor, not to mention Obeid.

    Not that the minor parties are any better. Consider Day and Culleton. Hanson has also worked the system with flying colours. Really at this point, you have to conclude that a significant % of state and federal MPs are self serving and at best unethical, at worst personally corrupt.

  46. Has Marine Le Pen rejoined her party yet?

    My understanding is she never resigned from the Party, just as the leader.

    If so, what was that supposed to prove then when she was running to be LEADER of France!?!

  47. Thanks BK. I have mostly given up reading news on Trump, which will only inflame. Of course the Comey evidence will be interesting, but I cannot see the Republicans letting Trump face the music unless the political damage is so bad it would cost them the mid term elections.

  48. From what I heard on ABC radio about the Four Corners story last night —

    1. Sam Dastyari made a number (I’ve heard two and four) approaches to the Department of Immigration on behalf of the donor.

    Sorry, can’t see anything wrong with this. Even if Dastyari knew he was a donor.

    When I worked in an electorate officer, we made numerous approaches to the State Attorney General and Police Minister on behalf of a known murderer (uncharged). Unsavoury characters have civil rights, too.

    2. Apparently the same donor said he was going to donate 4oo,000 to the ALP and then didn’t because a stance Conroy took on China upset him.

    As for Dastyari, Conroy might not have known about the potential donation.

    If he didn’t, that clearly shows that Labor was not influenced at all in its policy making by the donor.

    If he did, then that should be a huge plus for Labor, and emphasise how little donations impact on Labor party decisions.

    Either way, the incident is a plus for Labor, but you won’t hear that from the CPG.

  49. BK

    iOS 11 will render older iPhones, iPads and apps obsolete

    Predictable … Iphones sales are stalled or falling.

    But they have a new cylindrical device covered in grey upholstery. They say you can talk to it and it talks back or plays music. No one is allowed to talk to it at the moment and sound has not been demonstrated.

    Cheap at $370. Coming to a store near you sometime soon.

  50. CNN Politics
    20 mins ·
    BREAKING: US investigators suspect Russian hackers planted fake news report that contributed to a crisis among the US’ closest Gulf allies.

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