Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 and Bemused.
    You understand that the Saudi soccer team is sent as a representation of their country and their culture. Any national team is the same, an Australian team is representing us and misbehaviour or rudeness on their part is representative of us.
    This was not a bunch of individual sportsmen on a field, they were representing the state of Saudi Arabia, the ideal to which Sunni islam aims. These people have spent over $100 billion proselytising in the Islamic world. This is why all of Sunni Islam has gone a bit weird in the past few years.

    They did not feel bad about the London killings or the massacre of children in Manchester, in that they were being honest.

  2. Fess

    Meant to add that my take on all this is as I thought from the get go. Trump and his cronies are treasonous traitors, who thought they could bend the executive branch of govt to their will and to the detriment of the citizens they swore on oath to. They are all subject to various investigations now. It will ultimately aid in their demise. It can’t happen quickly enough in my view

  4. dovey @ #1100 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 9:55 pm

    Steve777 and Bemused.
    You understand that the Saudi soccer team is sent as a representation of their country and their culture. Any national team is the same, an Australian team is representing us and misbehaviour or rudeness on their part is representative of us.
    This was not a bunch of individual sportsmen on a field, they were representing the state of Saudi Arabia, the ideal to which Sunni islam aims. These people have spent over $100 billion proselytising in the Islamic world. This is why all of Sunni Islam has gone a bit weird in the past few years.
    They did not feel bad about the London killings or the massacre of children in Manchester, in that they were being honest.

    A lot of Sunni Muslims don’t want a bar of Saudi Arabia and its Wahhabi dominated perversion of Islam. One called in to ABC Melbourne today in fact and was really going crook about them.
    Saudi Arabia is a disgrace but there are some decent people there who are kept in subjugation by the head choppers.

  5. I believe the term for “Republicans” like Senator Schiff is RINO.

    Schiff is a Democrat representative for California.

  7. Fess,

    Certainly is. started life on Law and Order as the boss of Sam Shepherd as McCoy.

    He’s done well.

  9. They are all subject to various investigations now.

    Yep, multiple investigations. Makes those claims that what’s going down with Team Trump is anywhere near comparable to the nowheresville nothingness of the Clinton email ‘scandal’ laughable in the extreme.

  12. Fess

    Trumpians always bring forward Clinton and her emails. She is not the current President who has continually shown to be a pathological liar, who has sucked up to authoritarian dictators and deliberately snubbed democratically European leaders.
    When are his supporters and the GOP gonna cut loose this pathetic excuse of a human being?

  15. Poroti,
    Still a heapin’ helpin’ of Nothingburger though whatever you may think.
    And you are truly living in La La Land, if that’s what you think.

  16. victoria @ #1113 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:15 pm

    Grimace
    All good

    Got done in by the “rep” in his Twitter URL, and I’ve now remembered that someone here pointed out that rep = representative and GOP is the term for Republican.

    Unfortunately, I’m still sticking with my view that we’re stuck with Trump for 4 years, and I’m nervous about a second term.

    If I’m wrong on that, and I dearly hope I will be, it will be very, very welcome slice of humble pie I’ll be tucking into. I don’t have a lot of faith in the impeachment process, which is political, not legal. When you can get away with what many US Presidents have, yet get impeached for getting a head job from one of your underlings and lying about it, there is something badly wrong with the process.

  17. P1

    Do I have to repeat it three times before you understand it?

    I am saying that Finkel’s numbers are either grossly inaccurate and lifted from dubious sources – such as his rooftop solar pv projections of only 350% increase by 2036 – or out of date, such as his LCOE costings on solar plus storage, when quoting industry figures from 2016 as the projection for 2020.

  19. Trog Sorrenson @ #1116 Friday, June 9th, 2017 – 10:23 pm

    P1

    Do I have to repeat it three times before you understand it?

    I am saying that Finkel’s numbers are either grossly inaccurate and lifted from dubious sources – such as his rooftop solar pv projections of only 350% increase by 2036 – or out of date, such as his LCOE costings on solar plus storage, when quoting industry figures from 2016 as the projection for 2020.

    Renew Energy’s next publication will guide your thinking, no doubt.

  20. P1
    Incidentally, missing from the LCOE costings is any consideration for the cost of carbon when comparing new fossil fuel generation with renewables.
    Or don’t you think that is worth worrying about?

  21. C@Tmomma
    So how many breathless posts of Trump being “destroyed” because of this or that which then come to nought does it take for you to think maybe just maybe it is a pile of crap ? 10 ? 20? 30? We must be getting close to 50 by now.

  22. GG

    Renew Energy’s next publication will guide your thinking, no doubt.

    Don’t be piss poor GG. If you disagree, explain why.

  23. Trumpians always bring forward Clinton and her emails.

    Indeed. It’s just a shame that there are still people out there willing to conflate the nothingness of Clinton’s emails with the honking red hot no-go zone the Trump – Russia connections represent.

  24. trog sorrenson @ #1116 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:23 pm

    I am saying that Finkel’s numbers are either grossly inaccurate and lifted from dubious sources – such as his rooftop solar pv projections of only 350% increase by 2036 – or out of date, such as his LCOE costings on solar plus storage, when quoting industry figures from 2016 as the projection for 2020.

    And I am saying that if you disagree with Finkel, who is far more qualified than either of us in this particular domain, then the onus is on you, not me to provide proof of your assertion.

    But just so we are clear – on this, I do tend to side with Finkel.

  25. trog sorrenson @ #1119 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    P1
    Incidentally, missing from the LCOE costings is any consideration for the cost of carbon when comparing new fossil fuel generation with renewables.
    Or don’t you think that is worth worrying about?

    Yes, I noticed that. The carbon cost of renewables is almost always omitted in these type of calculations – and it is not zero, as is nearly always assumed by the solar warriors.

  26. Incidentally, missing from the LCOE costings is any consideration for the cost of carbon when comparing new fossil fuel generation with renewables.
    Or don’t you think that is worth worrying about?

    It wasn’t in the terms of reference.

    If Finkel developed the panacea to all of our energy and emissions concerns, but stepped outside the terms of reference in delivering the report, he would get howled down by his opponents. He’s instead gone very conservative on projections (maybe a bit too far) so that his proposal at least gets a look in. Why get caught up on arguing about particular LCOEs?

    The key recommendations are the new market and regulatory mechanisms. These are sound, especially the inertia and FFR mechanisms, which will open new and growing revenue streams to battery and PHES services. The report s also highlights the role that DR will play in the future, which I am very happy to see.

    Coal is going to get smashed by the market in any case, especially if your own projections on costs and uptake rates are correct. The proposed changes will ease the transition of the power system’s operation moving forward into a world with even great levels of renewables, so that system failures don’t occur, and thereby derail the process. Like they had the potential to do in SA last year.

    I don’t see what all the hand-wringing is about, unless, of course, your goal is to be seen as the most pure.

  27. Finkel is clearly driven by politics. The report is designed to fit Coalition objectives.
    The data reported is not originally Finkel’s, it is data Finkel has quoted, not researched. e.g. the 350% rooftop solar by 2036 is just old AEMO data which makes no mathematical sense.
    This number is rather important. At current rates we will hit 350% of today’s rooftop solar pv capacity some time in early 2021 – not 2036.

  28. Poroti

    I for one will continue to breathlessly​ report on the Trump Imbroglio. So as I suggested to you in past, you might wanna scroll by my posts.

  29. Trog

    P1 doesn’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that scientists can be influenced by their pay packet, and that looking at who commissioned a report and what they asked for from it is important in assessing its worth, not just who wrote it.

  31. This number is rather important. At current rates we will hit 350% of today’s rooftop solar pv capacity some time in early 2021 – not 2036.

    So why the angst?

  32. zoomster @ #1128 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 10:45 pm

    P1 doesn’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that scientists can be influenced by their pay packet, and that looking at who commissioned a report and what they asked for from it is important in assessing its worth, not just who wrote it.

    Oh, just like the CSIRO then?

  33. Poroti,
    So how many breathless posts of Trump being “destroyed” because of this or that which then come to nought does it take for you to think maybe just maybe it is a pile of crap ?

    If you had actually been following what I have said about the matter then you would know that I don’t believe Trump will be ‘destroyed’. Congress, from top to bottom, plus the Supreme Court now, not to mention that there appear to be no patriotic Republicans in either House of Congress left, means that Trump will not be destroyed because they have his back, no matter what he does, or has done, or what the Russians have done.

    So I can believe James Comey when he testifies under oath that certain things occurred. The problem now is that because Congress is thoroughly debased by the Republicans, nothing will be done about it!

    Instead, they will go on Wild Goose Chase #7031 for Leakers. Instead of doing what they should do. Which is, basically, pull on the Russian string.

  34. zoomster @ #1128 Friday, June 9th, 2017 – 10:45 pm

    Trog

    P1 doesn’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that scientists can be influenced by their pay packet, and that looking at who commissioned a report and what they asked for from it is important in assessing its worth, not just who wrote it.

    Very cheap shot.

  36. Regardless of what happens to Trump, the fact that he is an incompetent fool unfit for office cannot be repeated too often.

    The fact that he lent on the head of the FBI is serious. People who dismiss it have no sense​ of propriety.

  37. LU
    Finkel makes some good points about planning for a distributed grid and the provision of ancillary services, but he doesn’t provide much of a blue print to move forward. Having order-of-magnitude errors in technology uptake projections does not inspire confidence.
    I guess if accounting for carbon costs is outside his remit, then as Chief Scientist, you would question why he would take on the job.
    The Chief Scientist is supposed to provide objective scientific advice, not cater to half a dozen morons in the right of the Coalition.

  40. P1
    The carbon cost of renewables is almost always omitted in these type of calculations – and it is not zero, as is nearly always assumed by the solar warriors

    How much of that cost is in energy?

  41. P1

    Oh, just like the CSIRO then?

    Eaxctly. The CSIRO’S Larry Marshall has gutted atmospheric sciences, pushing for the spivification of the whole outfit. Forget basic research, we’ll just leapfrog that and start making money.

  42. Delusional must be the Flavour of the Month in politics. Here’s Theresa May’s speech to Britain, as if she won a stonking majority yesterday:

    I have just been to see Her Majesty the Queen, and I will now form a government – a government that can provide certainty and lead Britain forward at this critical time for our country.

    This Government will guide the country through the crucial Brexit talks that begin in just 10 days and deliver on the will of the British people by taking the United Kingdom out of the European Union.

    It will work to keep our nation safe and secure by delivering the change that I set out following the appalling attacks in Manchester and London – cracking down on the ideology of Islamist extremism and all those who support it. And giving the police and the authorities the powers they need to keep our country safe.

    The Government I lead will put fairness and opportunity at the heart of everything we do, so that we fulfil the promise of Brexit together and – over the next five years – build a country in which no one and no community is left behind.

    A country in which prosperity and opportunity are shared right across this United Kingdom.

    What the country needs more than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the General Election, it is clear that only the Conservative & Unionist Party has the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty by commanding a majority in the House of Commons.

    As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party in particular. Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom.

    This will allow us to come together as a country and channel our energies towards a successful Brexit deal that works for everyone in this country – securing a new partnership with the EU which guarantees our long term prosperity

    That’s what people voted for last June.

    That’s what we will deliver.

    Now let’s get to work.

    She obviously thinks she’s going to be a raging success at the Brexit negotiations and all her policies will be loved by all…Even though a vast number of Brits voted against them yesterday.

  43. Zoomster

    P1 doesn’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that scientists can be influenced by their pay packet, and that looking at who commissioned a report and what they asked for from it is important in assessing its worth, not just who wrote it.

    This not a cheap shot, it is accurate.

  45. Interesting that except for the slimmest of margins in each case we might have had Labour in number 10, Democrats in the White House and a Labor PM in the Lodge right now

  47. C@t,
    May sounding more and more like Turnbull. And she used that word “fair” in the same paradoxical way : )

  49. P1

    The carbon cost of renewables is almost always omitted in these type of calculations – and it is not zero, as is nearly always assumed by the solar warriors

    It is not zero. It probably takes a couple of years of operation to offset the carbon costs of manufacture and installation of a solar pv system. If we are to go carbon neutral or carbon negative, then a lot of research will need to go into reducing this factor.
    The main thing is that once it is “paid off”, that’s the end of it, unlike fossil fuel powered generation that pollutes for the lifetime of the plant.

  50. poroti @ #1120 Friday, June 9th, 2017 – 10:28 pm

    So how many breathless posts of Trump being “destroyed” because of this or that which then come to nought does it take for you to think maybe just maybe it is a pile of crap ? 10 ? 20? 30? We must be getting close to 50 by now.

    I don’t think the number of claims made, the consequences (or lack thereof) attached to each one, or the duration of the process for arriving at consequences has any bearing upon the veracity of the claims.

    OJ was guilty as hell too. But how much time, nonsensical obfuscating defense, and unsuccessful claims did it take before something finally stuck? A whole hell of a lot.

    Trump hasn’t been around that long. He’s been under the microscope for the blink of an eye in ‘judicial proceedings’ time. But in that short span of time he’s managed to attract multiple high-profile public investigations, an independent prosecutor, and a number of currently-secret private investigations being run by the FBI. Comey just outright branded him a liar, several times, under oath. And flat out said that Trump directed him to drop the Flynn/Russia investigation.

    Circumstantially, Trump looks guilty as hell. He’s bunkered down and lawyered up. He’s simultaneously claiming vindication over Comey’s testimony and denying that large swathes of it never happened. He’s threatened Comey with “tapes”, which he could easily release if he wants to prove his side of the story (and if, of course, the tapes aren’t just another massive lie to the public he’s supposed to represent).

    I’m unsure why you’re dismissing all of that (and probably bunch of other bits and pieces that I’ve missed) as sensationalist nonsense. Impatience doesn’t seem like a valid reason.

    And if Congress, the FBI, the NSA, Comey, and everyone else are so easily duped and Trump really is just some innocent dude (a nice, friendly innocent dude who has publicly called upon foreign states to hack his political opponents and just happens to have a soft spot for protofascist authority figures), we’re royally fucked and I want off this planet.

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