Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Bill Shorten must grow a beard!

    Maybe when he’s 68, GG. 🙂

    However, what I would like him to do is get bolshy about some Corbynite policy!

  2. trog sorrenson @ #1046 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Don
    Finkel has lost all credibility. The review doesn’t seem to cite many viable data sources, or work from basic principles, as you would expect the chief scientist to do. Instead he just seems to be balancing the vested interests of all the players – except the planet.
    Here is a classic example of his incompetence, and that of his sources:

    AEMO forecasts that by 2036 the annual electricity generation from rooftop photovoltaic solar will increase by 350 per cent from current levels.

    This completely ignores the historic annual growth rate of solar, and uses info from an organisation, the Australian Energy Market Operator, which has been part of the system mismanagement problem we now have.
    Note following:
    1) Global growth rate for solar pv overall is 46% over at least the last 10 years.
    2) Solar pv growth rate has been at least 46% annually in Australia since 2011 (http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses)
    AEMO’s forecast of 350% by 2036 assumes a 6.5% annual growth in solar pv. Which is insane.
    What Finkel needs to explain is why solar pv roll-out is going to drop to only 6.5% annual growth, when we have the highest electricity prices in the world, and solar and battery costs are dropping like a stone.

    It stinks of a deal between big unions/Shorten/big coal/Turnbull

  3. The smart ones will see that he offers them great opportunity.

    Step up and take a bow the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson. Now just a step away from the top job when Corbyn retires.

  5. This one’s for Cud Chewer, straight from Finkel, and based on 2017 figures …

    Average LCOE ($ per MWH) for various sources, predicted for 2020:
    PV + storage = $138
    gas CCGT = $83
    supercritical coal = $76

    Average LCOE ($ per MWH) for various sources, predicted for 2030:
    PV + storage = $87
    gas CCGT = $93
    supercritical coal = $75

    So yes, by 2030 PV + storage may be competitive with gas – but it is not yet.

  6. trog sorrenson @ #1046 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    What Finkel needs to explain is why solar pv roll-out is going to drop to only 6.5% annual growth, when we have the highest electricity prices in the world, and solar and battery costs are dropping like a stone.

    Well, just as a guess, I’d say that is because Finkel knows the difference between exponential growth and logistic growth.

  8. Shorten is plenty bolshy enough.
    Hitting neg gearing, and capital gains, going to bat for higher taxes for millionaires and no tax rises for the middle and lower class, funding public health and education. These aren’t so far from Corbyn’s manifesto. And Bill’s been at it longer than Jezza.

    As with the attacks on Corbyn it mostly driven by insiders telling each other what they think the bubble expects. Corbyn would kill to be in Shorten’s position.

  10. Did anyone think the Finkel report wouldn’t be compromised in some way?

    Have you been watching this govt when it comes to AGW and the environment?

  13. Finkel doesn’t work out his own figures – he just gets them from the incumbents or adjusts them to suit his political case.
    e.g.

    Average LCOE ($ per MWH) for various sources, predicted for 2020:
    PV + storage = $138

    Prices less than this were quoted last year – before we had the massive price drop precipitated by Musk’s Tweet.
    LCOE of PV + storage is going to be less than $100 /MWH according to ex Hazelwood boss Tony Concannon
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/ex-hazelwood-boss-says-solar-storage-already-cheaper-than-gas-17924/

  14. P1

    Well, just as a guess, I’d say that is because Finkel knows the difference between exponential growth and logistic growth.

    It is perfectly reasonable to expect current growth rates in solar pv to persist for another 3-4 years. At this rate Finkels 350% increase in rooftop solar will be met in early 2021 – not 2036.
    Do the fucking sums. Do you understand spreadsheets?

  15. Shorten is plenty bolshy enough.
    … And Bill’s been at it longer than Jezza.

    Maybe he does just need to grow a beard then? 🙂
    But in all seriousness folks, there are similarities between the way Corbyn operates and the way Bill operates as well.

    Going around the legacy media and holding listening posts and rallies certainly sharpens the mind when it comes to formulating policy that will appeal to, and answer the needs of, the electorate.

    It’s not rocket science but the high-minded Tories, like they have always done, think THEY know what’s best for US.

    Trump also has this side of the equation sussed. What he doesn’t, or what those around him who are The Donald Whisperers, don’t understand is that, to be truly successful politically, you not only have to appeal to peoples’ needs and wants, but actually act upon them when you get your hands on the golden ring of power.

    A fault the babbling Abbott found to be his Achilles heel as well. That is, you have got to walk the walk as leader of the nation once you get there from Opposition after having talked the talk.

    Basically, people are starting to sort the political wheat from the chaff as far as that goes now.

  16. Re P1 and others earlier, regarding Finkel’s report and no mention of what level of emissions constitute ‘low emission’ or clean energy.
    As you say figures like 700kg of CO2 per Mwh bave been mentioned but no figures are in the report.
    I saw an interview with Finkel yesterday that he sees his role as suggesting a mechanism and it is a government policy decision where to set the benchmark.

    If I recall, he will be providing modeling of different levels and leave it to Harbourside ( or his backbench, or the Nats) to decide the level.

    I see Shorten accepting the report in principle but only supporting the government if the benchmark is acceptable, or perhaps it ratchets down over time.

  18. P1
    You are the one quoting Finkel as an authority – I am the one questioning them. If you disagree explain why –

  19. P1
    You are the one quoting Finkel as an authority – I am the one questioning them. If you disagree explain why.

  20. Corbyn did ok, but he would have romped it in with Lord Bucketheads manifesto:

    MY 2017 MANIFESTO: Strong, not entirely stable, leadership

    1. The abolition of the Lords (except me).

    2. Full facial coverings to be kept legal, especially bucket-related headgear.

    3. No third runway to be built at Heathrow: where we’re going we don’t need runways.

    4. Ceefax to be brought back immediately, with The Oracle and other Teletext services to be rolled out by the next Parliament.

    5. Regeneration of Nicholson’s Shopping Centre, Maidenhead.

    6. Buckethead on Brexit: a referendum should be held about whether there should be a second referendum.

    7. Nuclear weapons: A firm public commitment to build the £100bn renewal of the Trident weapons system, followed by an equally firm private commitment not to build it. They’re secret submarines, no one will ever know. It’s a win win.

    8. Nationalisation of Adele: in order to maximise the efficient use of UK resources, the time is right for great British assets to be brought into public ownership for the common good. This is to be achieved through capital spending.

    9. A moratorium until 2022 on whether Birmingham should be converted into a star base.

    10. Legalisation of the hunting of fox-hunters.

    11. New voting age limit of 16 to be introduced. New voting age limit of 80 to be introduced too.

    12. Katie Hopkins to be banished to the Phantom Zone.

    13. Stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. Start buying lasers from Lord Buckethead.

    14. Prospective MPs to live in the seat they wish to represent for at least five years before election, to improve local representation in Parliament.

    15. Free bikes for everyone, to help combat obesity, traffic congestion and bike theft.

  21. P1
    You are the one quoting Finkel as an authority – I am the one questioning them. If you disagree, explain why.

  22. From today’s Crikey. More despairing than anything else.

    The fate of the presidency might now rest on a he said/he said battle between the two men — and there is clearly no love lost between them. Comey today admitted he was “hopelessly biased” on the wisdom of his firing, and that he had arranged for his memos to be leaked to The New York Times after his sacking. Following the testimony, Trump’s lawyer denied most of Comey’s story, saying his client had never demanded loyalty and painting Comey as a leaker.

    Ever the tease, Comey hinted there was more to come: why did he suspect Jeff Sessions would recuse himself two weeks before he actually did so? How central is Flynn to the Russia investigation? And is any of the stuff in the infamous Steele dossier (of “pee tape” fame) true?

    Whatever the case, whether Trump actually breached the law or not is less important than how it all looks. The Justice Department would almost certainly not charge a sitting president with a crime, meaning there would have to be enough political will to impeach Trump before he could ever have his day in court.

    It’s the politics that matters, and Trump’s allies are already spinning the hearing, trying to shift the focus back to Obama’s attorney-general Loretta Lynch, frame Comey as a self-interested leaker, and — as a bewildered Senator John McCain tried to do with confusing results — imply Comey was soft on Hillary Clinton but tough on Trump. A notable absence from the spin room today was Trump himself, who refrained from tweeting at all during the hearing.

    Ultimately, we are left to grapple with the same question Trump’s campaign and presidency have provoked virtually every day. What on earth does it take to bring this man down?

  23. player one @ #1003 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Although I did find this …

    The CET scenario resulted in lower consumer electricity prices than the EIS scenario. In the long-term, the CET scenario saw more electricity produced by brown coal than the EIS scenario because there is no penalty for high emissions generators.

    Of course, the whole report was about price not emissions.
    I am so disappointed. Finkel should be ashamed.

    You really should have known better than to have been surprised.

    In the months leading up the L/NP have declared that they would not accept any sort of carbon price or an ETS, they’ve recently stated they want to subsidise carbon capture and storage, they’re supporting the Adani coal mine, several members have celebrated the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement and yet more have threatened war should Brian Trumble even consider taking action to reduce emissions. How did you not see something like this coming?

  24. Confessions

    What on earth does it take to bring this man down?

    As awful as the man is the main problem is that the “Russiagate” hysteria is based on sfa. As someone commented about Comey’s expected “smorgasbord” it turned out to be a “Nothingburger”

  25. Booleanbach
    “I heard some commentators say that Sinn Fein do not vote in the UK parliament, even though they (now) hold 7 seats. ”

    Sinn Fein refuge to swear allegiance to the Queen. Good on ’em. So they can’t sit in the Parliament.

  27. rex douglas @ #1032 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 7:20 pm

    Good to see Daniel Andrews getting positive reaction at COAG re tightening up parole conditions and airport security.
    Strong leadership in these war times.

    Having worked at an airport, and several seaports, let me assure you that security at these facilities is a bad joke. You’ll only really have a problem with air/sea port security if you’re near the admin building (sea) or going through passenger screening in the main airport hanger.

  28. poroti:

    I’m not of the view that the Russia stuff amounts to nothing. If they tampered in the US election (or any country’s election ftm) that’s a big deal. If the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the campaign that’s a big deal, arguably a bigger deal.

  31. Confessions
    It sure would be but the more you look in to the claims the more you see how they are based on mist rather than solid evidence. I am very sceptical about the claims because the language and so much about the whole thing is exactly the same as the stuff I saw RW sites pumping out about Clinton. One outrageous claim after another declaring “Boom ” it is all over for Clinton before not to long after when that claim does not eventuate another “Boom it is all over for
    Clinton.” claim

  34. confessions @ #1077 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    poroti:
    I’m not of the view that the Russia stuff amounts to nothing. If they tampered in the US election (or any country’s election ftm) that’s a big deal. If the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the campaign that’s a big deal, arguably a bigger deal.

    You must be seriously outraged at the long history of the US meddling in the politics and government of other countries.

  36. Fess

    I caught up with Comeys testimony and it is best summed up by report from John Schindler who remember is a Republican.
    I will post it

  38. I am very sceptical about the claims because the language and so much about the whole thing is exactly the same as the stuff I saw RW sites pumping out about Clinton.

    Except that the Clinton email ‘scandal’ never had every US intelligence agency and Congress investigating it.

  41. Poroti,
    As awful as the man is the main problem is that the “Russiagate” hysteria is based on sfa. As someone commented about Comey’s expected “smorgasbord” it turned out to be a “Nothingburger”

    I guess it depends on what sites you visit.

    Nevertheless, it also depends on whether you believe the sworn testimony of the man who said today that, yes, he believed the Russians hacked the DNC database; yes, he believed the Russians hacked into the Voter database in some States of the USA; and, yes, he believes that the Russians used the information they obtained to enable the election of their favoured candidate.

    Plus, he said that Trump lies to favour his own position.

    If you want to be selective about what he didn’t say, fine, but if you also want to use that as a pretext to indulge your fantasy that everything James Comey said amounted to a “Nothingburger”, then I can only conclude that that’s what you want to believe. Absent any facts to the contrary.

  42. trog sorrenson @ #1063 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    P1

    Well, just as a guess, I’d say that is because Finkel knows the difference between exponential growth and logistic growth.

    It is perfectly reasonable to expect current growth rates in solar pv to persist for another 3-4 years. At this rate Finkels 350% increase in rooftop solar will be met in early 2021 – not 2036.
    Do the fucking sums. Do you understand spreadsheets?

    I think we’ve got plenty of huge growth to go in solar yet. Perovskite based cells are well under development and will open up roof space that currently can’t economically be used due to not being able to support the weight of traditional silicone PV.

  43. john reidy @ #1065 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    Re P1 and others earlier, regarding Finkel’s report and no mention of what level of emissions constitute ‘low emission’ or clean energy.
    As you say figures like 700kg of CO2 per Mwh bave been mentioned but no figures are in the report.
    I saw an interview with Finkel yesterday that he sees his role as suggesting a mechanism and it is a government policy decision where to set the benchmark.
    If I recall, he will be providing modeling of different levels and leave it to Harbourside ( or his backbench, or the Nats) to decide the level.
    I see Shorten accepting the report in principle but only supporting the government if the benchmark is acceptable, or perhaps it ratchets down over time.

    So more concisely, the report is going to get shelved.

  46. Fess

    I have been around. Just trying to multi task.
    So much is going on. Hard to keep up with it all.
    We live in interesting times

  48. Tanya Plibersek‏Verified account @tanya_plibersek 6h6 hours ago
    More
    Summary of what state premiers told @TurnbullMalcolm today about his school funding cuts: get stuffed.

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