BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 32
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  2. Would be hilarious if you clowns in the east started buying WA LNG …. dom gas reservation policy my friends, domgas reservation …

  5. A snake in the grass as always

    Former Labor minister and ACTU leader Martin Ferguson, now chairman of industry group Tourism Accommodation Australia, said he realised that reforming penalty rates was a tough decision “but ultimately this was essential.”​

  7. I can’t understand how obviously unsuitable people like Peter Dutton can ever be put on the same page as the word, ‘leadership’! Let alone seriously considered as a contender for one of the most sacred positions in the nation.

  8. Grimace,
    Way yeah!
    I want every Lib/NP appointment defenestrated before the sun sets on the first day of the new ALP gov’t. Clean, clear desks, empty chairs and the files un-shredded. On the first plane home, mid-sentence if necessary. Don’t even pack your bags, just hand in your pass and get in the taxi to the airport,

  11. Bemused,
    I do believe that, in coming out before the election with such nasties, Theresa May is going against what is the normal election playbook of only speaking about the sunny upside. It will be interesting to see how going hard and authoritarian before the election plays out for the Tories. We have the polling results up until this point, and the trend was clear, so any change can probably be seen as a result of these moves.

    I think the attacks being seen as a result of the Police cutbacks will have more sway than May’s attempts to come down hard on terrorists and their propaganda outlets. Plus the loss of people’s freedom of the internet.

  12. C@t:

    Only in today’s Liberal party would a complete incompetent like Dutton be a genuine leadership candidate! The current party is so bankrupt of talent because they didn’t refresh and reset a decade ago. They are paying the price for that intransigence now.

  13. I see the CSIRO rigged a report for the LNP to say that gas fired would be cheaper by modelling gas differently to how they modeled wind and solar. Very naughty, very dumb.

  14. meher baba @ #935 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    Re education funding: I didn’t find the analysis by Pete Goss particularly illuminating. However, I do have significant concerns over Labor’s policy and, I’m sorry zoomster, I do not agree that Turnbull has cut $22bn from the education budget.
    The fact is that, under Gillard, the savings/revenue Labor “found” (quite a bit of it ultimately proved to be non-existent) to fund the Gonski plan did not continue beyond a few years. Gillard and Swan’s message re the savings beyond that point was effectively “watch this space”.
    Well the time’s come for the savings to be found, or else for the sails of the Gonski plan to be trimmed. I don’t rate the Turnbull Government for too many things, but I reckon they have done an excellent job at trimming the sails in line with the funding available (well, arguably, it’s still a bit too expensive, because the deficit is still too large, but they’ve done their best).
    Shorten is not proposing any other ways to fund Gonski. Yes, he is promising to put the company tax rate up again (good luck getting that through any conceivable Senate) and restore the “temporary” budget repair levy. But he also wants to introduce a means test on the Medicare levy increase and a range of other expensive things. So there isn’t any money in either the Government’s or the Oppositions version of the forward estimates to pay for the $22 billion promised by Gillard long ago. So it’s a bit tough to accuse Turnbull of cutting something that never existed in the first place. And it’s not surprising that the Press Gallery and some other commentators would wish to criticise Labor for making such claims.
    As I see it, Shorten is doing an Abbott at the moment: running with a simple, populist message of opposing all the unpopular things and promising to make it all better somehow. It’s not the sort of fiscal and economic policy approach adopted by Hawke-Keating, or even Rudd-Gillard-Rudd, but the Libs started it in 2010 and they thoroughly deserve to cop it back until eventually the public wakes up to the meaningless of these sorts of political promises. (Shorten’s risk is that they might wake up to it before the next election and suddenly the opinion polls won’t look so good. But that’s his concern, not mine.)
    It’s disappointing, but not particularly surprising, to see RDN lead the Greens away from a sensible position on this issue to an irresponsible populist one.
    Gee Paul Keating must be feeling uncomfortable watching all this nonsense.

    If Brian Trumble got up on to his desk, dropped his pants, squatted and took a dump on his desk would you defend that too MB?

  16. The Qatar thing is interesting as in “may you live in interesting times”. This NYT article illustrates just some of the many problems it creates.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/world/middleeast/qatar-saudi-arabia-egypt-bahrain-united-arab-emirates.html?_r=0

    Tension between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been building for some time. Both are Sunni but Qatar is not hardline Wahabist and has been becoming more moderate. Plus they are both funding rival factions in the Syrian civil war and in Egypt. Qatar is the richest gulf state, has large gas reserves still left, and would be quite a prize to take for SA.

    So Trump’s “all the way with Salman” speech last month was throwing a match into a tinderbox. The last thing the gulf needs is Saudi Arabia thinking they have a license to invade neighbours. Once again, Trump is a dangerous menace, even when he does not mean to be. Paul Keating has already said Australia needs to develop a new foreign policy independent of USA over China and Trump. Merkel has said similar things for Europe. The Qatar crisis adds another reason for the same course of action.

    I know foreign policy rarely rates a real mention in Australia. The government is notmally too busy working out how to stuff our economy and help our billionaires pay no tax. But foreign policy now actually matters.

  18. player one @ #939 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 1:48 pm

    zoomster @ #933 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Your statement was that it was nonsense to say nuclear was in decline, because China was building more reactors.
    China is not the world, so is nuclear in decline or not?

    Nuclear is on the increase in both China and India. In the US the picture is a bit mixed – new plants are being built while old plants are shutting down. Numerically, more plants are shutting down than are being built, but the overall amount of electricity generated by nuclear plants is rising. And interestingly, their main competition is gas, not renewables.
    It is just nonsense to say nuclear is in decline world wide.

    You’re a bit behind the times P1, the plants being built in the US are in a spot of bother now that Westinghouse has gone arse up and may never be completed. That’s on top of their multi billion dollar cost blow outs and decade plus and counting completion deadline overruns.

  19. Photo: Lorin Clarke
    Sunday 2 July 2017, 6.00pm-8.00pmat Melbourne Town HallBook your tickets
    John Clarke: A Celebration

    CLARKE, John, Dip Lid, PhD in Cattle (Oxen). Advisor and comforter to various governments. Born 1948. Educ. subsequently. Travelled extensively throughout Holy Lands, then left New Zealand for Europe. Stationed in London 1971–73. Escaped (decorated). Rejoined unit. Arrived Australia 1977. Held positions with ABC radio (Sckd), ABC Television (Dfnct), Various newspapers (Dcd), and Aust Film Industry (Fkd). Currently a freelance expert specialising in matters of a general character. Recreations: Whistling.

    From his work as Fred Dagg to his invention of the fictional sport of Farnarkling, from The Games to Clarke and Dawe, John Clarke has left an indelible impact.

    A poet, a playwright, a songwriter, an author and a columnist as well as a director, performer and producer, John was a true original.

    At this public memorial at the Melbourne Town Hall, John’s friends, colleagues and collaborators will celebrate his life and work in an evening of readings, stories and music.

    This event is free. For those who want to make a charitable contribution in John’s memory, his family has nominated Trust for Nature.

  20. meher baba @ #950 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    zoomster: “As for Shorten’s strategy, Labor went to an election last year, where it outlined in great detail what it would do and how it would pay for it; most commentators agreed that no Opposition has done anything like this since Hewson. The only way you can pretend Shorten is Abbott is to ignore all that. Abbott was purely populist; he didn’t provide any detail at all to explain how he was going to do all he promised, whereas Shorten has already laid it all out.”
    Agreed: it was a good approach and Shorten deservedly did very well in the election. But his Budget reply speech and other recent statements are less classy: there’s a strong element of tax and spend, soak the rich populism.

    Well after years of leaning rather than lifting, its time the individuals in our society with 7+ figure gross incomes and our largest companies started paying their fair share, just like the lowest income earning 90 odd percent of Australians.

  21. Socrates
    Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    The Qatar thing is interesting as in “may you live in interesting times”. This NYT article illustrates just some of the many problems it creates.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/world/middleeast/qatar-saudi-arabia-egypt-bahrain-united-arab-emirates.html?_r=0

    Tension between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been building for some time. Both are Sunni but Qatar is not hardline Wahabist and has been becoming more moderate. Plus they are both funding rival factions in the Syrian civil war and in Egypt. Qatar is the richest gulf state, has large gas reserves still left, and would be quite a prize to take for SA.
    *****************************************************************
    Interestingly the current emir is much more conservative than his father was but there is little love between the house of Saud and Al Thani that is for certain.

  23. Anyone who is giving this Government any credit for their economic policy is clearly getting their ‘facts’ very selectively. Dumb as a Trump.

  24. grimace @ #1118 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    You’re a bit behind the times P1, the plants being built in the US are in a spot of bother now that Westinghouse has gone arse up and may never be completed. That’s on top of their multi billion dollar cost blow outs and decade plus and counting completion deadline overruns.

    This is all discussed here – http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/usa-nuclear-power.aspx

    Time will tell whether it makes any difference at all …

    After 20 years of steady decline, government R&D funding for nuclear energy is being revived with the objective of rebuilding US leadership in nuclear technology.

  25. HOW MUCH?

    This is a free event. Bookings are essential; limit of four tickets per booking.Book your tickets

  26. player one @ #975 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    zoomster @ #967 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 2:54 pm

    Whoa, there – no need to get so defensive! I asked you to clarify a couple of statements you made, that’s all.

    I am not defensive, merely thorough. Given the amount of misrepresentation my views get here on PB from certain quarters, you can perhaps understand that.

    With the sheer number of times and variety of regular posters where your views have supposedly been misrepresented, misunderstood or misconstrued, have you paused to consider that the problem is you, and not other posters?

  27. Lord H
    Yes he is more conservative than his father but still wants to keep Qatar independent (of Saudi Arabia). I don’t think ultra conservtives really believe the religious “beliefs” they proclaim, whether in Israel, or USA or Mecca. The religious extremism is a convenient justification for a pragmatic political position. For the Saudis, Wahabism justifies an autocracy. Qatar is a thorn in their side at a time when the regional balance with Iran is in jeopardy. The Saudis want to snap Qatar back into line, and annexing them would help cement their power. I’m not sure what difference it makes how conservative Al Thani is; the Saudis may have had enough of an independneighbour and Al Jazheera reporting their every execution.

  29. player one @ #1124 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    grimace @ #1118 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    You’re a bit behind the times P1, the plants being built in the US are in a spot of bother now that Westinghouse has gone arse up and may never be completed. That’s on top of their multi billion dollar cost blow outs and decade plus and counting completion deadline overruns.

    This is all discussed here – http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/usa-nuclear-power.aspx
    Time will tell whether it makes any difference at all …

    After 20 years of steady decline, government R&D funding for nuclear energy is being revived with the objective of rebuilding US leadership in nuclear technology.

    I’ve got to hand it to the nuclear spruikers, if nothing else, in addition to being eternally optimistic, they eternally have their sticky fingers in the public purse

  31. grimace @ #1126 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:57 pm

    With the sheer number of times and variety of regular posters where your views have supposedly been misrepresented, misunderstood or misconstrued, have you paused to consider that the problem is you, and not other posters?

    No. There is a small group of posters here whose zeal to push their agenda exceeds their ability to prosecute an argument. So they resort to misrepresentation and abuse.

  32. Corby ups the ante on Police numbers…

    Jeremy Corbyn has said Theresa May should resign because of her record on police funding, ITV’s Rachel Younger reports.

    Follow
    rachel younger ✔ @rachyoungeritv
    BREAKING: @jeremycorbyn tells me Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister over her record regarding police funding
    8:58 PM – 5 Jun 2017

    and ex-senior Metropolitan police officer Peter Kirkham has accused the government of lying about the number of armed officers on the streets following the attack. Speaking to Sky News Kirkham said the police service “is in crisis” due to public spending cuts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/05/london-attack-isis-claims-responsibility-victims-named-live-updates?page=with:block-59353b13e4b0bdd87e2f379e#block-59353b13e4b0bdd87e2f379e

  33. bemused @ #991 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    player one @ #914 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 1:06 pm

    voice endeavour @ #908 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 12:54 pm

    Over to you P1 for a list of companies entering into PPA with new gas plants for economic reasons. Presumably if gas is cheaper, there should be lots?

    70MW of solar? Peanuts! Did you miss the recent announcement by the Qld government for 385MW of gas? Apparently so.
    For further developments, we’ll have to wait till after Friday. Solar is currently the subject of subsidies, whereas gas is not. But if an EIS or an LET is adopted, such subsidies will become effectively technology neutral – instead, they will be based on the ability to actually reduce C02 emissions … which is of course what should have been the case all along.

    Total dishonesty as usual.
    the 385MW of gas is not new, just being taken out of mothballs.

    You disappoint me Bemused, you should know by now that when dealing with P1 who is a serial pedant that you need to be precise in your language, the term is “care and maintenance”, not “mothballs”. Lift your game please.

  34. darn @ #1028 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 5:18 pm

    Player One
    Monday, June 5, 2017 at 5:10 pm
    darn @ #1019 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 5:04 pm
    I heard an interesting comment from Tom Elliott on 3aw this afternoon. He said he had been talking with a friend who had just returned from London and her opinion was that the terror events were “heavily favouring” Corbyn politically.
    I know it is only one person’s opinion but it seems to square with other comments I have heard. Perhaps this may be one time when the black swan event (as Boerwar likes to call them) might work for Labour instead of against them.
    I think it is May’s dismantling/underfunding of the police force that has come home to roost.

    I hope you’re right P1. It would be nice to see the conservatives on the receiving end just for once.

    I’d dearly love P1 to be right on this. My objective knowledge of marketing, promotion and perception tells me P1 almost certainly won’t be.

  35. Yes that’s more like it from Corbyn.. Potent stuff. The only danger is that he gets accused of politicising the attack – but three days out from a general election, he surely has the right to make his point.

  36. zoomster @ #1038 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    lizzie
    Because of my husband’s situation with the work lockout, I applied for Centrelink payments. I did all the full disclosure stuff, including my age (56).
    I expected a health card!
    The only explanation I can think of is that last time I had anything to do with Centrelink they gave me a sort of disability pension because of my hip (as in, I got the normal Newstart allowance but didn’t have to actually look for work), but that was clearly identified as a temporary thing.
    I’ll ring them tomorrow….

    If you end up dealing with one of the job network providers and need help, my wife has worked for one of them for a couple of years and I’d be happy to get her to give you any guidance/advice/help that you needed. I’m happy for William to pass on my contact details to you, or anyone else similarly affected.

  37. P1 this sight seems to have several posters that have spent their life in the energy industry; in one way or another; and I find their posting interesting. You seem to think random internet articles take out of context trump their knowledge?
    The funding increase for research was in the 2011 USA budget.
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/obama-energy-research-nuclear-power/
    A lot has happened since then:
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/03/fukushima-daiichi-radiation-levels-highest-since-2011-meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/29/toshiba-nuclear-westinghouse-bankruptcy-us-uk
    http://www.mining.com/bhp-cuts-another-140-jobs-over-abandoned-olympic-dam-expansion-plans/
    And so it goes on.

  38. grimace @ #1133 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    You disappoint me Bemused, you should know by now that when dealing with P1 who is a serial pedant that you need to be precise in your language, the term is “care and maintenance”, not “mothballs”. Lift your game please.

    And you didn’t disappoint me at all, Grimace. Right after I pointed out how some posters here like to misrepresent my views, along come you and bemused doing exactly that.

  41. frednk @ #1097 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:03 pm

    Looks like AGL might be putting up the cash to build a GAS import terminal; P1 will go nuts. Google as require.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/agl-gas-import-terminal-plan-draws-global-interest/news-story/0081a103d4242b7b5eac174bd7650706

    P1 and everyone else should keep their emotions in check until AGL realistically have FID on the horizon. Media releases are cheap, the payments on a multi-billion dollar loan are not.

  42. I want every Lib/NP appointment defenestrated before the sun sets on the first day of the new ALP gov’t.

    Puff, that’s too good for Turnbull’s NBNco stooges.

  44. player one @ #1139 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 9:28 pm

    grimace @ #1134 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    I’d dearly love P1 to be right on this. My objective knowledge of marketing, promotion and perception tells me P1 almost certainly won’t be.

    You should read ratsak’s post at #1132

    Sadly, it doesn’t change my opinion. And I reiterate, I dearly want you to be right on this issue.

    Rightly or wrongly, there are issues in Western politics in which one side can never win, no matter what they do, and the other is Teflon coated no matter what they actually do. National security is one such issue for the progressives, education is one such issue for conservatives.

  45. I’m wondering if you can get energy out of turning LNG back into a gas.
    I bet you can. Just pressurise the LNG, heat it to something near room temp and let it expand. It would be well above supercritical.

  47. grimace @ #1133 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    bemused
    —
    Total dishonesty as usual.
    the 385MW of gas is not new, just being taken out of mothballs.

    You disappoint me Bemused, you should know by now that when dealing with P1 who is a serial pedant that you need to be precise in your language, the term is “care and maintenance”, not “mothballs”. Lift your game please.
    Oh my apologies!
    I should have remembered how desperate P1 is, hanging it’s hat on the least imprecision or ambiguity.

  48. frednk @ #1143 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    More AGL stuff:
    sinessinsider.com.au/agl-is-getting-out-of-gas-and-aiming-for-fossil-fuel-free-2016-2
    https://mumbrella.com.au/agl-puts-sustainability-digital-experience-brand-refresh-439723
    They do seem to be al over the shop.

    Like just about everyone in the energy industry, they are floundering because of the lack of clear policy direction here in Australia. We can only hope that Finkel recommends something acceptable to both the current government and the opposition (who will be the next government) on Friday.

  49. Frednk, Grimace
    In addition to the other good reasons for preferring wind and solar to nuclear now, there is also this one I posted earlier today.
    https://nuclear-news.net/2017/05/19/areva-and-edf-pin-their-hopes-on-delayed-super-costly-olkiluoto-3-nuclear-project/

    The “Gen III” nuclear plants are proving much less practical than hoped – 2 to 3 times the forecast cost and time to build. Check the energy supply cost quoted in the article. GenIII nuclear is safe, but it is not economically viable.

  50. Grimace

    Thanks for the offer, but (either because of my advanced age or the lack of employment opportunities locally) the job network people are being very kind to me.

    Mind you, in the past they have fallen on my neck with cries of joy, because they know I will find employment off my own bat and they’ll benefit from this.

    One of them used to do my compulsory interviews whilst we watched our sons play soccer…

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