Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).
UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.
UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.
Boerwar,
SOB? Is that Son of a.. or are you just unhappy?
Dovey – not quite sure what point you’re making.
If commentators say things that you think are wrong, by all means point out what and why. Vigorously. With humour. Loudly. Use colourful language if you like (within whatever limits William places on it).
But there is never any call (or point) in the ugly ad hominem stuff used by catmomma this morning. Whether necons (or anyone else) use equivalent is irrelevant. It doesn’t win arguments, it doesn’t present a case, it just makes your side seem rude and ill-informed, and it further enables any escalation in pointless namecalling and insult from the other side.
It degrades PB for everyone.
May reckons that ‘goodwill’ will solve the Irish border issues.
She really is quite dotty.
The pity for the Irish is that Corbyn is dottier.
The only thing that will ‘solve’ the people movement issues beween the EU/Eire and Rump UK is the 500 km May/Farage Silly Great Wall.
Instead of having a moat, they will have around 650 km of new land borders with the EU.
There is another sleeper. The Frnch are going to move away from the Agreement that the UK/French border starts at the French side.
Inter alia, this may mean that the French will no longer feel the need to restrict asylum seeker movements across the Ditch. As they do now.
The shame despair and regret should be on the faces of the people who voted for Trump.
Lovely statistic. Of the top ten states for rates of diabetes, nine voted for Trump. And Trump’s man says they should cut health care for diabetics. When will the idiot voters lwarn?
ML
Eggs never stick to the faces of narcissists.
S.
Sobs uncontrollably..a Greens?
I mean to say.
i wonder to what extent the ‘shy Corbyn voter’effect exists?
Someone asked earlier about Savva on Insiders. She didn’t say much, but one thing she did say is that there is expected to see pressure come to bear on Turnbull to switch out the current Liberal director for someone with actual campaigning experience, as the incumbent does not have any. The way she said it made it sound as if this was expected to be a shit fight for MT.
Jackol,
What an ugly unnecessary comment. Cut out the disgraceful ad hominem.
Sorry, but I have less than zero respect for Scabs and Strike Breakers. Especially when they gloat about which side they are on when sitting on the Insiders couch. Make nice to THEM? Nah.
Btw, I was channelling that darling of the Left, about 50 times removed these days, Germaine Greer, when she saw fit to make a similarly disrespectful remark about Prime Minister Julia Gillard on Q&A.
What was your opinion about that out of interest?
Sorry, I didn’t mean to suggest that you are a Green (way below the belt). Are you a Lib, then?
Confessions
The guy has v close ties with Truffles so perhaps the director crap is a proxy war against Truffles.
Sohar
Puhleese. Everyone knows Boerwar has been a Poorleen fan since like for eva.
“i wonder to what extent the ‘shy Corbyn voter’effect exists?” I don’t think there are many at all. Unlike Tory voters, they are not ashamed of their beliefs.
Really, I am amazed, that a couple of prominent journalists can dump all over the Labor Party for no valid reason today on Insiders, and gloat about and goad each other on when doing it, and yet people here aren’t supposed to get exercised about it!?! In fact, they are supposed to make nice towards them, one of whom has just been a Scab and Strike Breaker!?!
Verrry interesting standards.
catmomma –
You don’t have to be ‘nice’ to them. You just have to play by the rules of reasonable debate. Namecalling and going on about Tingle’s arse is not part of that.
I thought it was ugly and unnecessary on Greer’s part.
Two, three, twenty nine wrongs don’t make a right.
And I’d suggest that using Greer as a yardstick for what is or is not acceptable might not be a good plan.
Monica Lynagh Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 1:58 pm
So, just catching up on the news from the US (thanks Victoria and PhoenixRED), how many eggs in the omelette that will be all over Trumble’s face?
***********************************
Be like me, Monica – hold your breath till we get some mainstream/official comment or information on this ……
If the information comes to fruition as the truth – From my limited understanding – the House has to first to vote, as a majority, on impeachment as a first step ……. and not sure what Republicans will do to provide the needed majority
Anyone who gives 22 points to the Tories in an Australian federal election competition…
Boerwar – the Comey analogy is exactly what I wanted.
Someone making an ‘interference’ in discussion at the wrong time is often disastrous. It is all about timing.
Malcolm Turnbull’s cluelessness often relates to his poor timing.
Much of Shorten’s kudos comes from his excellent timing. He has stated that the Adani mine thing must stand on its own. Adani is falling apart. The company is in trouble in India. It desperately needs funds to prop it up. As each day goes by we are seeing more problems with it.
As what happens wth the Libs, why should Shorten interrupt something that is doing a good job of destroying itself? So Shorten can say “I told you so”?
I’d suggest that if Adani DOES look like getting a loan or something from the Libs – Shorten will speak up quick smart.
I also suspect Labor is formulating more policies on renewables and infrastructure now that the Libs squibbed those two items in the budget. Announcements will like start that will enliven the union base.
Jackol,
You don’t have to be ‘nice’ to them. You just have to play by the rules of reasonable debate. Namecalling and going on about Tingle’s arse is not part of that.
One standard for PB, and another for the CPG (because I remember Tingle merrily repeating what Greer had said, or was she simply ‘reporting’?)
However, if those are the standards you think we should observe, when all around us, which includes the Liberal Party and the CPG, do not, then I can play the game by those rules. If only to prove that I am better than them.
Have we started placing bets on who our next PM will be? I reckon it’ll be Morrison, the Murdoch media has been giving him some glowing coverage lately. Then again, Bishop is a bit of a darkhorse. I just doubt the party will give it to her based on their obvious chauvinism.
I’m ruling out Pyne for being devoid of charisma and Dutton for being devoid of personality. The Libs would have to be out of their minds to pick either.
[ Then again, Bishop is a bit of a darkhorse. I just doubt the party will give it to her based on their obvious chauvinism. ]
The doGs are simply not so much in favor of the ALP that they would let Bishop be PM.
poroti:
I have no idea who the current guy is, but a proxy war on Turnbull in an effort to undermine his leadership wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
I do not think Tony Abbott will give up without a fight.
BC:
Not sure about Morrison anymore. He’s pretty much tied to Turnbull. PvO wrote the other week that Abbott will be the next Lib leader, but he’ll be doing it in opposition.
I am not sure why Blanket Criticism thinks that the Libs are sane.
I was listening to Background Briefing on the Sydney WesConnex and the 10’s of billions being totally pissed up against the wall, all for no good.
It came home to me that Abbott and his ilk are seriously deranged, I cannot think of one area in which they contributed positively to the country, not one. Every area he touched is still badly damaged, from when he was health minister, to Climate Change, electricity etc.
It would be maintaining normal form for them to chose either Pyne or Dutton, in fact Dutton would be a shoo in to keep their normal standard of performance.
Thanks guys. For nothing. Talk about slings and arrows.
Confessions
A taste…..
“Andrew Bragg: Can an inexperienced 32-year-old save the Liberal Party?
Turnbull’s son-in-law James Brown, an army veteran turned academic, seized control of the Liberals’ Paddington branch from long-time president and Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh.
Working with Brown behind the scenes was his close friend Andrew Bragg, a fellow branch member.”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-bragg-can-an-inexperienced-32year-old-save-the-liberal-party-20170428-gvudgq.html
J
False analogy.
Comey was a bureacrat.
Shorten is a political leader.
Greer kicked Gillard when she was down using standard misogynist framing.
What was not to like?
P
Whether he stays or goes, someone is going to end up with Bragging rights.
Boerwar
The fortune was pretty outrageous too 🙂
NK has just test fired a missile. Of sorts.
Are we about to be treated to a Comey Unicorn?
P
Yep.
phoenixRED
I do hope you aren’t holding your breath for the Repugs to do the right thing and impeach him.
They might….after they’ve got through their agenda.
Boerwar
Eggs don’t stick to narcissists? I didn’t know that, even after a working life spent in mental health where I’ve met a few, and I don’t mean the clientele.
lizzie
Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 11:34 am
Please let it be so. These three are social dinosaurs.
Three senior Queensland senators could be forced out of their seats by the next election, with momentum building for generational change that would shake up the Sunshine State’s Senate ticket.
Attorney-General George Brandis, veteran Ian Macdonald and relative newcomer Barry O’Sullivan’s positions are all in doubt as members of the party agitate for “new blood” in a bid to broaden Queensland’s talent pool and increase its numbers in future cabinets.
Fairfax Media has spoken to nearly a dozen Queensland MPs, party operatives and LNP members and while all three senators dismiss suggestions their future is under a cloud, planning has begun for what would be a seismic shift designed to inject new talent and grow the LNP’s influence in the federal Coalition.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shake-up-looming-for-queensland-lnp-senate-ticket-as-brandis-macdonald-osullivan-come-under-threat-20170512-gw39nx.html
*****************************************************************************
Oh please, oh please, oh please…..
Bonza
Yep. The problem is that many voters are shy of voting for Corbyn.
Boerwar
but but but, Trump said only recently that Kim Jong Un was a splendid chap, so strong, you know.
Thanks poroti!
LHHOA
Just what Turnbull needs – yet another internecine shit fight.
Excellent!
ML
That was fake news.
Boerwar,
A sufferer? 🙂
The only good ad hominem is one directed at the Greens of Liberals it seems.
Trump considering turning the White House into the Fox House:
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/333245-trump-may-dump-spicer-considering-fox-news-host-as-replacement
C
I choose to take that as a friendly overture.
c@tmomma @ #764 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 2:28 pm
Please advise when that state of Nirvana existed where the treacherous media was not viciously anti-Labor?
Certainly not in my lifetime.
So the only people who get animated about it are those who lack perspective.
[ I cannot think of one area in which they contributed positively to the country, not one. ]
I think that where the Libs have done their most destructive things are in setting up a model for being an opposition leader. Abbott’s no,no,no,tear everything down attitude meant that the criteria for a successful LOTO is seen by many (particularly the CPG) as being willing to do whatever it take to become PM regardless of the consequences for the country.
Interesting the 4C program lately on energy. I guess for “balance” they were running a line that govt’s of all persuasions have failed on planning and thats why we have a “crisis”.
I call bullshit on that.
Pretty much everyone who knows anything about energy policy knows we need a price on carbon if for no other reason than to give investors some certainty on the relative costs of different generation methods going forward. Pricing carbon is a BASIC underpinning that our economy needs.
Abbott tore down the carbon pricing system we had and he, and his influence on the RW of the Libs is the main reason we have little chance of getting a price on carbon in the near future. The blame for our somewhat confected but partially real “energy crisis” (more real that debt and deficit though) lies firmly with the Libs, federally. Abbott backers care about NOTHING more than being in power for its own sake. Even now, their only appeal seems to be on what they would block or prevent (like SSM) , not anything positive that they would actually do if in power.
Abbot replacing Turbull is a possibility, but it will simply mean a rinse repeat of the utterly pointless govt he ran before.
DTF
Are you thinking about the issue of exploiting au pairs.
At least Greer was coming from the angle that the size of a woman’s backside should be irrelevant. “Get over it” were her words I believe
Merely the fact that scabby arsk leads to much fulminating and a hundred slurs directed at others leads to silence.