The regular Essential Research result is the only entry in an inevitably quiet week of opinion polling, to be followed by a post-budget deluge next week. This result is a good one for Labor, who tick up a point on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote to 37%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation maintaining an ongoing trend in dropping a point to 6%. Despite that, the regular monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull up two on approval to 37%, although he is also up one on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is up one on each, to 34% and 45%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 39-28 to 39-31.
Other findings relate to the government’s university funding, with university funding cuts (28% to 56%) and student fee hikes (30% to 60%) heavily opposed, but lowering the threshold for student loan repayment slightly favoured (47% to 44%). Thirty-one per cent rated that students should pay a lesser share of the cost of their degrees, 20% thought it should be more, and 37% thought the current ratio (42% paid by students, 58% by the government) was about right. The poll also finds 71% rating a return to a budget surplus as important, versus only 19% for not important.
One other poll tidbit: the Financial Review reports a poll conducted by WA Opinion Polls for Labor-aligned communications company Campaign Capital finds cabinet minister Christian Porter trailing 52.2-47.8 in his Perth outskirts seat of Pearce, from a swing of 5.8%. The primary vote numbers make no distinction between “other” and “unsure”, so I’m not exactly sure what to make of them, but for the record they have Labor on 38.0% (34.3% at the election), Liberal on 33.8% (45.4%), the Greens on 8.0% (11.0%) and One Nation on 10.4% (uncontested). The poll was conducted a fortnight ago from a sample of 712.
Dan – How soon I forget!
Doyley
If the Liberals are still behind coming into the next election I think they would be desperate enough to try something like a tax cut. Buying votes with tax cuts is part of their DNA. Howard turned it into an art form.
When Mitchell asked Morrison this morning if he would rule out tax cuts at the next election he was very evasive and left the clear impression that it was probably being considered. Time will tell, but I wouldn’t be betting against it.
Malcolm Nance Declares the Trump Russia Cover Up Official Upon Firing of Comey
“THE #TRUMPRUSSIA COVER UP IS OFFICIALLY IN EFFECT,” Malcolm Nance declared over a New York Times story about Trump firing the FBI Director who was investigating Trump for his ties to Russia.
Now Donald Trump will appoint the person who will investigate him about Russia and a Republican Congress will confirm this person.
To suggest there’s no cover up here is to be blind to the facts. Trump shouldn’t be allowed to fire the person who’s investigating him. It doesn’t just reek of a cover up; it’s shrieking of a cover up.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/09/malcolm-nance-declares-trump-russia-cover-official-firing-comey.html
‘A troubling pattern’: Schumer questions ‘coincidence’ of Trump firing Comey, Yates and others investigating him
“Are people going to suspect cover up, absolutely,” Schumer continued before calling for a “Fearless, independent, special prosecutor.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/a-troubling-pattern-schumer-questions-coincidence-of-trump-firing-comey-yates-and-others-investigating-him/
poroti @ #106 Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at 9:09 am
I think a better headline would have been;
Supported by this from the article;
Wow, what another amazing coincidence
In possible sign of closer ties between US and Russia, Trump plans to meet Russia’s foreign minister at White House.
Official: Trump may meet top Russian diplomat in White House
https://apnews.com/190c006d277c48f7954e472282a2436b/Official:-Trump-may-meet-top-Russian-diplomat-in-White-House?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP
phoenixRed
Comey was supposed to testify in closed senate committee hearing tomorrow. Claude Taylor on Twitter said earlier that he has sources who say he will still testify as former Director of FBI
So, was Comey forced to put his gun and badge on the table, like in the Westerns? I hope so.
Perhaps Bill can have a thread for American politics – this US prez stuff is tedious.
Anton11
Well Comey found out about his firing whilst speaking at an FBI Conference inLA and saw details of his firing scrolled across the tv screen
Sohar
It’s okay. I will depart the blog
For what it’s worth, BBC World has indicated in a snippet that “critics suspect a cover up” in the actions that Trump has taken. While the words are quoted at arm’s length, the fact that the Beeb has captioned the news item thus, is quite interesting.
So cutting welfare to vulnerable people is “doing them a favour”.
Gee thanks.
How will this ensure they won’t miss an appointment?
It may identify a contributing factor to them missing one, but surely the correct approach is treating the problem, not bashing them.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/federal-budget-2017/2017-05-10/federal-budget-2017-reaction-live-blog/8512766
Gee, US politics “tedious”…wow……so tedious it is likely to become the main topic on most of the world’s news services – especially the most recent Trump gambit.
victoria Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at 10:46 am
Sohar
It’s okay. I will depart the blog
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No way !!!! …… the significance of this story is immense …. keep us up to date, Victoria – those not interested just use your scroll wheel like we all have to do at times ….
Do we know what drugs will disqualify one from welfare? Smoking a bong because you don’t have a job and your life is total shit? This is so pathetic.
Victoria
Please don’t do that. I have been reading your posts re the Trump imbroglio with great interest. It is a subject which has massive implications for us all. Please keep your updates coming.
PhoenixRed
I always remind those who aren’t interested in a topic to scroll by. Yet continually get reminders by some posters that they are sick of the Trump Imbroglio being mentioned on this blog.
It kinda gets old
Sohar – we all find some topics on this blog tedious (the preoccupation of some with the energy discussion drove me to distraction! yet others thought it important/interesting) but US politics does have relevance to Australian politics and as someone said – if you don’t like it scroll on by.
Victoria’s contribution on this has been very helpful.
CNN in full on hysterical mode.
Well, the interest will now focus on Bill Shortens Budget in reply speech. Interesting to see how he addresses the “Libs, Labor Lite” theme?
Not that i think it will be much of a problem for him.
I suspect that he’ll go to how much the Govt could have done and have squibbed on.
Housing affordability will be a big one. Seems from what i am reading that you can argue this budget does very little for that that isn’t actually counterproductive in terms of reducing the rate at which house prices are rising?
Removing the debt repair levy from high earners while increasing the Medicare levy is a straight unfairness kick me the Coalition is bending over for. Tie that in with the underlying theme that actually, the tax increases in the budget are REALLY there to pay for the big business tax cuts……………
Shorten and Bowen have much to work with out of this. Its actually a “good” enough budget that they don’t have to go full on negative, and unlike previous ones (2014) there are not sooooo any horrid aspects they will be able to do a much more focused critique.
That said, in “relative terms” i’d agree with some of the commentary that this is the best budget the current incarnation of the Coalition have delivered. But that’s partly because they set themselves a VERY low bar to jump.
Will it shift the polling? Who knows. I think it will, a bit, back to the Coalition simply because there will be people happy to see the Govt actually doing something, anything, that somewhat approaches real policy. Will Abbott keep his trap shut though??
Of course, huge numbers of liberal voters will be totally pissed off at the drop in the value of bank shares. Someone just commented to me that $34 billion was wiped off bank shares in the two days before the budget. Is that true? If so, shouldn’t ASIC be investigating to find out if this is the biggest insider trading scam in Australian history?
Vic
Maybe Donald has been reading your incisive, ground breaking and stunning posts on this blog for the last few months, and realised the game was up.
Keep it going. It’s going to make Watergate look like a kids spat.
Yesterday South Korea held an election to choose a new president following the impeachment of the former president Park Geun-hye who was essentially a crook.
The new president, elected in a landslide, is Moon Jae-in, a human rights lawyer and a liberal (in the US sense). Park was a conservative.
The main strategic implication of Moon’s election is that his side of politics is much less confrontational against North Korea than are the the conservatives. South Koreans have been somewhat unhappy with Trump’s twitter bullhorn aimed at North Korea, given that they live so close by. The new administration in South Korea will doubtless also be asking the Turnbull government to tone down the rhetoric against Kim Jong-Un.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170509000505
Al Pal
Cheers
victoria Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at 10:55 am
PhoenixRed
I always remind those who aren’t interested in a topic to scroll by. Yet continually get reminders by some posters that they are sick of the Trump Imbroglio being mentioned on this blog.
It kinda gets old
****************************************
The POTUS possibly installed by Russian hackers – the worlds voting systems under the control of hackers – the news systems of the world being fed fake news – Facebook postings done by foreign governments to sway peoples emotions and voting patterns blah blah blah
….. sure why should we care ????? ……. lets just say it tediously boring and move on ….
F**K THAT ….
If U.S. politics is too tedious, how about cats?
lizzie @ #145 Wednesday, May 10th, 2017 – 10:17 am
And for preference in terms of food. Our cat will kill and eat things even when she still has food available inside. Geckos (and other small lizards) seem to be her favorite.
We’ve got cat flaps so she can come and go as she pleases, and fence-modifications to keep her in the yard. She’ll still try to get out into the front (not fenced) whenever anyone is careless with the door. My experience with cats has been that they’ll all do this; they want to explore even if they’re not actively complaining about being trapped in the house/cage.
Lizzie, the downsizing ‘incentive’ for over 65s of a free kick of up to $300K into SMSF doesn’t change the net number of properties on the market. It is nothing more than a nice little present for rich retired over 65ers.
To avail oneself of the current ‘brought- forward’ non-concessional cap of $300K (equiv to 3 years @ $100K) contributors must be under 65 and satisfy a work test of 40hrs/month. Details here.
A fully retired over 65er can now sell up the big house, buy a spivvy unit with harbour glimpses, and pocket < $300K into the tax haven called a SMSF. And Vote Malcolm. It makes bugger all difference to housing supply.
(Disclaimer – I know SFA about economics)
Stick around Vic and keep on doing what you’re doing. Your stuff is far more relevant to this site than the endless pages of gluten free recipes we got yesterday.
Yep, bank shares tanked after news reports there might be a tax on banks in the budget. Surely there should be an investigation to find out who leaked this information to the press.
http://www.fool.com.au/2017/05/09/why-bank-shares-are-getting-slammed-on-federal-budget-tax-rumours/
[ Of course, huge numbers of liberal voters will be totally pissed off at the drop in the value of bank shares. ]
Yup, but that’s likely to be transitory i think. Once its apparent that the banks just pass it on to customers and shares go up again they will revert to type.
I think the big negative for the Coalition out of this budget will be that their measures on housing affordability will be seen to be inadequate over the next two years and it will STILL be a big issue next election.
PhoenixRed/Dan G/Darn
No worries. Cheers
AR – on the other hand, indoor cats tend to live for twice as long (I am told). My Vet said indoor cats are just as happy and don’t need lots of shots, etc etc. Hell, my cat is so neurotic she jumps into the wardrobe whenever anyone arrives (even people she knows). I shudder to think how she would cope wandering around outside.
Conversation
Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
Comey is still going to testify. In closed session. No holds barred. You may have heard me say this. Comey. Is. A. White Hat.
11:08 AM · May 10, 2017
Nothing more boring than when you want to catch up with politics through the eyes of your peers, rather than the MSN, and nobody is posting.
Post whatever you like. Content is good. I have a scroll wheel. Personally, I find international politics, and the Trump stuff in particular, very interesting.
Dan Gulberry and Sohar,
Grumpy Old Men?
Look guys, no one forces you to read every post on PB. If you don’t like our detour topics, just scroll on by.
CNN exclusive: Grand jury subpoenas issued in FBI’s Russia investigation
Federal prosecutors have issued grand jury subpoenas to associates of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn seeking business records, as part of the ongoing probe of Russian meddling in last year’s election, according to people familiar with the matter.
The subpoenas represent the first sign of a significant escalation of activity in the FBI’s broader investigation begun last July into possible ties between Trump campaign associates and Russia.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/09/politics/grand-jury-fbi-russia/index.html
Victoria, as a mostly lurker here, just wanted to pop up and also say, your US Drump postings are much appreciated.
Cheers.
Conversation
CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk
Federal prosecutors have issued grand jury subpoenas to Michael Flynn’s associates
CNN exclusive: Grand jury subpoenas issued in FBI’s Russia investigation
cnn.com
Is the $300,000 per capita?
I imagine that many SMSF people would already be the $1.6 m cap.
It does not apply to pensioners.
In other words in the grand scheme of yhings, it is noise to distract from not doing negative gearing.
This hasn’t stolen air from Labor as much as given fuel to their fire (Bowen sounded hot last night) —
* thanks for confirming with the voters that all along that we were right, and you are lying opportunists
* funding Medicare is a very good thing to do, we know, but instead of taxing all workers, we will weaken the tax concessions (neg gearing and CGT) which just happen to be fuelling the housing crisis from which you personally are profiting hugely and otherwise fiddling round the edges
* education funding rebalancing on needs is welcome, except you’re $22 bill down
* housing – see above
* thanks for the bank loot, and we’ll eat it and have a royal commission cake too
* CLIMATE needs a price on carbon
Hope Bill doesn’t wear a purple tie. Purple is the new blue.
John Boy
Thanks
Vic – Keep going. The detail I find not very interesting but some events like the ‘sacking’ are very indicative of the White House preparing for a siege.
Smart traders will be buying bank shares as we speak.
So, Comey is sacked on the day subpoenas were issued and on the day before he was supposed to give evidence to a closed session of the House thing that is investigating li ks between the Trump campaign and the Vlad Freedom Slayer.
Coincidence?
Also, as you have heard me say before, I live across the road from a National Park. We had a couple of cats when we moved in here. They thought this place was heaven. All the birds here that they could catch and bring home as offerings to their human masters made them feel great but made me feel sick in the stomach. One of them died of cancer of the kidneys and the other was run over on the road outside, probably coming back after a night of hunting (we can’t fence off this place, it’s not ours and the owners would prefer we kept the trees as our boundaries. So I took the death of the cats as a sign that they were not meant to be on this land. Despite the loud and long protestations of the kids I stood firm and didn’t get a new pet. Ever since that time the wildlife has flourished, the kids have grown up and seen sense and I am at peace with myself. 🙂
Victoria, PR…please keep the Trump digest rolling. I do not have the time to follow the sites you link, so you’re doing a great service to this bludger…
V
People have the scroll wheel option if yhey feel really bad.
Up to them.
Keep it up!
Dan Rather
Future generations may mark today as one of the truly dark days in American history, a history that may soon take an even more ominous turn.
President Trump’s sudden firing of FBI Director James Comey is a matter that should deeply concern every American, regardless of party, partisan politics or ideological leanings.
The independence of our law enforcement is at the bedrock of our democracy. That independance, already grievously shaken under the brief tenure of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, is now shattered by uncertainty.
https://www.facebook.com/theDanRather/posts/10158646539340716
I don’t have time to read all the posts about people who don’t have time to read certain people’s posts.
Stop the ‘stop the _____ posts’ posts!