Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

A budget eve widening of the Coalition’s electoral deficit from Essential, while a private poll finds cabinet minister Christian Porter struggling in his marginal seat on the fringes of Perth.

The regular Essential Research result is the only entry in an inevitably quiet week of opinion polling, to be followed by a post-budget deluge next week. This result is a good one for Labor, who tick up a point on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote to 37%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation maintaining an ongoing trend in dropping a point to 6%. Despite that, the regular monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull up two on approval to 37%, although he is also up one on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is up one on each, to 34% and 45%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 39-28 to 39-31.

Other findings relate to the government’s university funding, with university funding cuts (28% to 56%) and student fee hikes (30% to 60%) heavily opposed, but lowering the threshold for student loan repayment slightly favoured (47% to 44%). Thirty-one per cent rated that students should pay a lesser share of the cost of their degrees, 20% thought it should be more, and 37% thought the current ratio (42% paid by students, 58% by the government) was about right. The poll also finds 71% rating a return to a budget surplus as important, versus only 19% for not important.

One other poll tidbit: the Financial Review reports a poll conducted by WA Opinion Polls for Labor-aligned communications company Campaign Capital finds cabinet minister Christian Porter trailing 52.2-47.8 in his Perth outskirts seat of Pearce, from a swing of 5.8%. The primary vote numbers make no distinction between “other” and “unsure”, so I’m not exactly sure what to make of them, but for the record they have Labor on 38.0% (34.3% at the election), Liberal on 33.8% (45.4%), the Greens on 8.0% (11.0%) and One Nation on 10.4% (uncontested). The poll was conducted a fortnight ago from a sample of 712.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,323 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Trog

    Oscar the cat arrived back home this morning dragging a rabbit trap.

    Good news that some remnant Australian wild life may have escaped a cruel death inflicted by Oscar!
    BTW, WTF is a green doing owning a cat and letting it roam/hunt at night?

  2. Imagine the cat-fight we’re going to have over the nomination of a new director of the FBI. Presumably trump is hoping that the Deputy FBI director won’t have the balls to go after him. Will be very interesting.

  4. Shit, as they say, has just got serious. My predictions:

    1) The number of protest marches, and the number of marchers will now grow exponentially
    2) Anyone close to Comey and the investigation will start leaking anything and everything they have (with or without Wikileaks – preferably without).
    3) Unless Republicans join in calls for an independent prosecutor to fully investigate Trumpgate, they will be wiped out in the mid-terms. Even if they do, they may well be wiped out anyway.

  9. Conversation

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated

    Just hearing back from a source on this. “Comey was ready. He anticipated this”.
    9:02 AM · May 10, 2017

  10. Holy cow, Trump firing Comey doesn’t make him look guilty AT ALL. And Comey is still testifying before the Senate intel commitee.

  11. Budget? What budget? Trumps act is going to consume the world. And so it should. The end of American exceptionalism. It’s going to dominate Australian political discussion from now on.

  12. Trump pushing again for a dictatorship. There will be plenty of blowback.

    And making another unpopular comment, I’m impressed with the Liberals commitment to the NDIS which is a great program. They are taking plenty of flak for supporting something heavily identified with Shorten who should view this as a big win for him and Labor.

  13. mattfleg: “Why now?” Schumer asks at start of his Comey press conference.

    mattfleg: Schumer: “This investigation must be run as far away as possible from this White House.”

    mattfleg: Schumer to Trump: “I simply said to him, ‘Mr. President in all due respect, you’re making a very big mistake.’ And he didn’t really answer.”

  14. Interesting budget.

    Education
    Of the university package, the only thing likely to take effect is the change in repayment thresholds, which on balance I think are an improvement. I have long been in favor of a 1% threshold @ 1% above minimum wage. But they needed to go harder at the high income end – this change is regressive. The other changes are just in there so they can claim a surplus earlier.

    The schools package is of course interesting in that it decides that Catholic Schools are overfunded, but that the actual wealthy private schools are fine as is. I approve of their removing the special deals everyone had, but their needs based forumla is wrong and the total funding too low.

    Infrastructure? For the most part, alright. Much more rail focused than previous budgets. Threatening to steal the Snowy Hydro from it’s rightful owners is bad form. All the spend is in the 4 big states, I don’t think there was anything announced for SA, Tas, ACT or NT. Of course, that’s likely because the number of seats that might swing to or from the Coalition in these 4 is very low, maybe 1 senator in Tas, 0 in the territories and a couple in SA.

    Caring about people other than oneself? Still just as bad as 2014, 2015 and 2016, with lots of dick moves for those on welfare and a cut to foreign aid.

    Health? They’ve stopped actively making things worse, which is alright, but they needed to undo years of damage.

    Housing – so they did two things.
    1) Reintroduced the first home owners grant, but instead of a flat amount for everyone, it’s proportional to your marginal tax rate. Idiotic and regressive. Should have just gone with a first homeowners grant, and put a condition that it only applied if the person had a deposit at least a certain amount, to make sure the person has actually been saving.
    2) Can no longer claim holidays as tax deductible expenses for your rental property. Not sure whether to congratulate them on doing something so obviously a good idea, or to shout at them for not having done it sooner (and that applies to Rudd and Gillard too)

    Terrorism and Defence. Yep, we’re still spending too much on it.

    Overall, people are right, if you squint, and forget about students, the poor and foreigners, this could be a Labour budget.

    Economics – firstly, by admitting that Labor was doing things right in Rudd-Gillard, and that every single Coalition budget has been bad, Turnbull risks losing the ‘Coalition are better economic managers’ line that Murdoch has spent a long time building in people’s imaginations. Will be interesting to see how redefining surplus, such that we are forecast to return to surplus will play out, particularly with the credit ratings agencies.

    It’s good to see Turnbull at least trying something. Previously, he was going to be chucked as leader after 30 Newspoll losses. Now, if he gets a Newspoll boost from this, he might feasibly reset his counter, although like all Turnbull cunning pans, there are some timebombs in there that it will take the media a week or two to find, so the poll boost wont last long. If he doesn’t get a boost from this, expect a coup sooner, rather than later.

  16. Serrated traps are 100% illegal.
    Having used them extensively I can say that they are cruel and that the bycatch was varied.
    But, still, whenever I see a bunch of rusting traps hanging on a shed wall I feel a pang of nostalgia.

  18. “key input assumptions being iron ore at $55/t, tapis crude at $55 barrel, AUD/USD at $0.7600”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/8ateight/8eight-north-korea-knocks-markets-as-budget-impact-felt-20170509-gw13lk.html

    So the Treasury is forecasting Iron Ore to drop, which will devalue the Australian currency.

    Experts are predicting the US to raise rates 2 times this year and multiple next year. Experts are predicting either flat, or decreasing Aussie rates this year, with any increase being late next year at earliest, and slower than the US. This will devalue the $AU compared to $US.

    The $AU is currently buying $0.73 US.

    How the hell do you start at 73, subtract something from it twice, and end up at 76?

  20. The New York Times
    8 mins ·
    Attorney General Jeff Sessions was told a week ago to come up with reasons to fire James Comey, officials said.

  22. Neil Mitchell didn’t hold back with Morrison this morning. Went through him like a dose of salts. Three things stood out for me:

    1. Mitchell called it a political budget and said it is going to affect everyone negatively in one way or another. Workers will pay more tax (medicare levy), superannuation and mortgage rates will be affected and welfare will be less and harder to get.

    2. Most callers had no sympathy at all for the banks suggesting that they deserve everything they get. This can only strengthen Labor’s hand with its policy of a banking RC, especially as it becomes evident over the next twelve months that the banks are in fact passing all the tax back to their customers.

    3. It is pretty clear that the Liberals are planning a tax cut for the next election. IMO Labor will need to counter that with a tax cut of their own. With all the lavish spending the Liberals are doing right now they will be in position to criticise.

  24. Have I missed something? Is the only solution to the housing crisis the encouragement to rich retirees to downsize? Or is there something else?

  25. DARN – Not sure about 3. If the libs are offering a tax cut (when debt is expanding) and labor says they are not, that may be the final blow to any budget scare the Libs try to run, as they always do.

  26. Conversation

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated

    Comey is many things. Stupid is not one of them. The files, evidence, records, tapes and work product of FBI is safe.

  27. Darn,

    I am interested in your prediction of a tax cut before the next election. If the Medicare levy is being increased across most income levels to ” pay for the NDIS” in this budget would the government then turn around and give a tax cut to the same people ?

    Apart from such a movedestroying the narrative of paying for NDIS it would put a big dent in the budget bottom line. Am I missing something here ?

    Cheers.

  28. But, at the end of the day, if Morrison personally delivered a gold bar to every household, he could still not sell a budget. He is the worst treasurer salesman since federation.

  29. Martha Farquhar

    Good news that some remnant Australian wild life may have escaped a cruel death inflicted by Oscar!
    BTW, WTF is a green doing owning a cat and letting it roam/hunt at night?

    I agree about the damage caused by cats. It’s my daughters cat and it’s normally locked inside at night and in a cage under the verandah during the day. Will enforce a more stringent application of protocols from here.

  31. @ Lizzie

    Downsizing incentive, first home owners can put pre-tax income towards home savings, a tax on foreign investors leaving property vacant, bans on selling more than 50% of an apartment to foreign buyers are the housing items. Investors can no longer claim holidays to the location of their investment property as a tax deductible expense of owning a property.

    None are expected to have much impact on housing. They are cutting down a tree with a feather duster, arguing the chainsaw is too noisy.

  32. Martha, same thing crossed my mind. Oscar was lucky he was not on a relative’s property, he wouldn’t have made it to the fence line. My relative is a real greenie.

  33. Trog Sorrenson @ #129 Wednesday, May 10th, 2017 – 9:57 am

    It’s my daughters cat and it’s normally locked inside at night and in a cage under the verandah during the day.

    That sounds like it’s cruel to the cat. They need to roam (and hunt). They’re predators. Hunting and killing other animals is what they do. It’s just nature; except that cats aren’t naturally indigenous to Australia. But that ship has sailed, and there’s no bringing it back.

  34. Being too far distant from the comings and goings in the US with regard to the FBI, and being probably just plain uninformed, the impression I got from J Edgar’s time, was that he established himself so powerfully that no President could touch him.
    As someone has already noted here, Harry Truman, the man who gave the go-ahead to drop the two A-Bombs on Japan, recognised that even he could not touch Hoover. The Kennedys also seemed powerless as he had the goods on them too.
    While I have strong doubts about Trump’s motives, the fact that he has sacked the FBI chief is a reminder that indeed, the buck does stop with the man in the Oval Office. This, of itself, is not such a bad thing.
    The test for Trump is to see if he now appoints a lick-spittle and/or whether his actions have done anything at all for the credibility of the FBI or the Presidency.
    However, all-in-all, what a terrible mess. Putin must be dancing in Red Square.

  35. Tricot @ #134 Wednesday, May 10th, 2017 – 10:05 am

    While I have strong doubts about Trump’s motives, the fact that he has sacked the FBI chief is a reminder that indeed, the buck does stop with the man in the Oval Office.

    Or that the man in the Oval Office is petty, vindictive, corrupt, and a few short steps away from being downright treasonous.

  36. There will be some interesting politics coming up.

    Many aspects of this budget will be popular amongst Labor members, but maybe not popular amongst the Coalition backbench.

    Doubtless, Labor will push to vote on these issues as soon as possible.

    The Coalition may want to save these bipartisan items, bundling them into Omnibus bills with some of the tripe to try to pass some of it. They may also need to slow things down to avoid embarrassing amounts of crossing the floor.

  37. AR

    That sounds like it’s cruel to the cat. They need to roam (and hunt).

    Cats (of all species) spend most of their time ‘resting’. I had two cats who lived indoors for 10 years and they never complained of cruelty.

  38. The problem for this budget and therefore the government are the assumptions on which it is based. Take one. On a day when retail sales fell o.1% in March when the market consensus was +0.3 the government is projecting that employment is going to grow 1.5% next financial year when this year it has only grown 0.8% and the 20 year average is 1.8%. This budget is predicated on consumption growing leading to wages growth significantly more than it is now and this leading to increased tax revenues and falling unemployment. If these things don’t happen the house of cards that is this budget collapses.

  39. Conversation

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated

    Just in: From a highly placed source. Comey (as former Director) is testifying tomorrow/Thursday before Senate Committee in closed session

  40. The Libs certainly can pick ’em:

    Liberal MP Peter Phelps says students given more freedom in sex education than at the canteen

    NSW MP Peter Phelps has compared the State Government’s healthy canteen strategy to sex acts, suggesting students are being told that oral sex is “OK” three times a week but sausage rolls can only be had once a semester.

    There are now calls for Premier Gladys Berejiklian to pull Dr Phelps into line after he rallied against his own Government’s new healthy school canteen strategy.

    Dr Phelps denied there was a child obesity epidemic while criticising the messages of sex education in state schools.

    “Welcome to the New South Wales education system,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-10/phelps-attacks-healthy-canteen-strategy-compares-to-oral-sex/8512770

  43. lizzie

    Yes, I’ve seen some wildlife experts in the past saying it was misguided of zoos to concentrate on expanding lion enclosures, because they’re among the animals least likely to suffer because of lack of space!

    On the Budget — why are Australian investors who buy investment housing and leave it vacant just mums and dads striving for a better future, while foreigners who do exactly the same thing are Teh Evil and need to be punished??

  44. ..ah, realisation! If you’re an MP who is buying a property in the city where your Parliament sits, it will be vacant for at least six months of the year….

  45. CTar1

    Very efficient killing machines!

    They kill for fun if well fed. That’s why they shouldn’t be let loose on native creatures.

  46. Zoomster

    On the Budget — why are Australian investors who buy investment housing and leave it vacant just mums and dads striving for a better future, while foreigners who do exactly the same thing are Teh Evil and need to be punished??

    The local ‘mums and dads’ get to vote, while the foreigners don’t.

  47. Pascoe

    Wake up, people! Spread over 10 years, the Commonwealth is only offering $7.5 billion a year, much of it already in Hockey’s numbers and a fair swag of that dating from Labor government commitments. It’s less than what the state of New South Wales invests annually.

    Smokin’ Joe tried hard to promote a “record” infrastructure investment of $50 billion in his first budget with the fine print admitting it was spread over six years. If the Abbott government had kept that promise, it would have averaged $8.3 billion a year, 11 per cent more than Morrison’s stretch.

    No, despite the rhetoric and the gullibility of much of the media, there’s no evidence of Morrison being converted to the economic mainstream’s belief that it’s an excellent idea to borrow big now at low rates to invest big in the nation’s future with projects that will more than pay for themselves.

    The reality is that the federal transport infrastructure spend is being held pretty much steady. By announcing or re-announcing a number of commitments, especially three big-ticket items, Morrison has managed to make his spend sound bigger than it actually is.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2017-who-fell-for-the-big-infrastructure-con-job-20170509-gw13qr.html

  49. guytaur @ #72 Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at 8:29 am

    Wow even Assange can see this for what it is
    wikileaks: If James Comey or any other former or current FBI officers have information as to why he was fired, we want to help: wikileaks.org/#submit

    I think you are missing the point.

    Russia’s goal is not so much to support Trump but to damage and weaken those who have the power to oppose it.

    Who have this power? The USA and Europe.

    The Russians seem to favour candidates and positions that want to disrupt and dismantle the existing systems and hence weaken their ability to co-ordinate against it.

    Trump, BREXIT, Le Pen all will or planned to weaken key opponents to Russia (USA, the EU, NATO).

    Assange seems to be outing himself as being completely complicit with Russia in this goal.

  50. Barnaby almost burst with joy when ScoMo mentioned the inland rail. I suspect he has great visions of all the pork-barrelling he can attach to it.

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