Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

A budget eve widening of the Coalition’s electoral deficit from Essential, while a private poll finds cabinet minister Christian Porter struggling in his marginal seat on the fringes of Perth.

The regular Essential Research result is the only entry in an inevitably quiet week of opinion polling, to be followed by a post-budget deluge next week. This result is a good one for Labor, who tick up a point on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote to 37%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation maintaining an ongoing trend in dropping a point to 6%. Despite that, the regular monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull up two on approval to 37%, although he is also up one on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is up one on each, to 34% and 45%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 39-28 to 39-31.

Other findings relate to the government’s university funding, with university funding cuts (28% to 56%) and student fee hikes (30% to 60%) heavily opposed, but lowering the threshold for student loan repayment slightly favoured (47% to 44%). Thirty-one per cent rated that students should pay a lesser share of the cost of their degrees, 20% thought it should be more, and 37% thought the current ratio (42% paid by students, 58% by the government) was about right. The poll also finds 71% rating a return to a budget surplus as important, versus only 19% for not important.

One other poll tidbit: the Financial Review reports a poll conducted by WA Opinion Polls for Labor-aligned communications company Campaign Capital finds cabinet minister Christian Porter trailing 52.2-47.8 in his Perth outskirts seat of Pearce, from a swing of 5.8%. The primary vote numbers make no distinction between “other” and “unsure”, so I’m not exactly sure what to make of them, but for the record they have Labor on 38.0% (34.3% at the election), Liberal on 33.8% (45.4%), the Greens on 8.0% (11.0%) and One Nation on 10.4% (uncontested). The poll was conducted a fortnight ago from a sample of 712.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,323 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Vic / BiGD

    Trump to NBC: “When I decided to (fire Comey), I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”

    If that was so, then why is he so hostile to any investigation?

    Quite deluded.

  3. All PBers should take no notice of this necklace thing. Just like if it was on a Lib/Nat we shoukd take no notice. The criticism easily runs both way.

  4. Malcolm Nance has also stated from the get go that those investigating the Trump Imbroglio are indeed spy hunters. Remember Comey confirmed that this is a counter intelligence investigation. This means investigating espionage etc. Not your garden variety stuff

  5. It is not ‘Class Warfare’ to seek to make the wealthiest in our society pay a greater amount of tax. Lord knows they already evade as much as humanly and financially possible!

  6. CTar

    Trump is following the map of despots before him. He figured their delusions worked for them and his will work for him. I guess the question is how strong is the republic of US of America

  7. CTar1
    Vic / BiGD
    Trump to NBC: “When I decided to (fire Comey), I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”
    If that was so, then why is he so hostile to any investigation?
    Quite deluded.

    And why did he seek reassurances from Comey, thrice, that he wasn’t being investigated. Etc Etc

  8. C@Tmomma
    It goes like this. The Liberals making people earning as little as $21,000 pa pay more is not class warfare but Labor’s plan for people earning $185,000+ pa to pay more is class warfare.

  9. Any journalist seriously spouting the class warfare claptrap about Labor or other party policies for creating a progressive tax scale should be on the – find a new job – list. Clearly partisan commentary.

  10. As I said. Nothing surprises me.

    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUΔL³³º¹ @th3j35t3r

    #FLASH Trump asked Comey to pledge loyalty to him at a private dinner. Comey declined but stated he’d always be honest with him. via NYT
    10:48 AM · May 12, 2017
    344 RETWEETS
    804 LIKES

    55m
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUΔL³³º¹ @th3j35t3r
    Replying to @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ Yes that’s the President of the United States asking the lead investigator of an investigation into himself for ‘loyalty’.

  11. Poroti,
    … but Labor’s plan for people earning $185,000+ pa to pay more is class warfare.

    Ah, so that’s why Sabraaaa and Frannie are so worked up about it? Gotcha!

  12. The money allocated to the ABC should be used to set up community-based radio and TV. The ABC journos are a law unto themselves these days, churning out pure garbage.

  14. itzadream @ #1204 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 11:39 am

    CTar1
    Vic / BiGD
    Trump to NBC: “When I decided to (fire Comey), I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”
    If that was so, then why is he so hostile to any investigation?
    Quite deluded.
    And why did he seek reassurances from Comey, thrice, that he wasn’t being investigated. Etc Etc

    Because the answer would give an indication of how far the investigation had progressed.

  17. wakefield @ #1206 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 11:45 am

    Any journalist seriously spouting the class warfare claptrap about Labor or other party policies for creating a progressive tax scale should be on the – find a new job – list. Clearly partisan commentary.

    But it is class warfare.

    With a growing divide between rich and poor Governments need to take action to redress this imbalance in an attempt to maintain harmony and order in our society.

  18. Yep. So what is everyone waiting for! Storm the bloody decks!

    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson

    What furies and dark winds propel
    The helmsman of our ship of state?
    Tie me to the mast, my lads
    A madman steers our fate
    11:33 AM · May 12, 2017
    363 RETWEETS

  20. TrogS,

    Thanks for that. I appreciate your generosity in allowing me some time off.

    Not a problem. I’d do the same for anyone who wants to make a cat live in a cage.

  22. Vic

    Trump asked Comey to pledge loyalty to him

    There used to be this European leader who asked officials to do this.

    It lead to no good.

  24. @Player One,

    Why are you so protective of Batteries, you either have vested interest in them or you know someone who does.

    Batteries is never a good ideas for long term, it also creates landfill that we are trying to get rid off, it’s also not good for the environment as batteries can leak, and also said before create more landfill…

  26. I’m assuming the cage is more in the nature of an enclosed cat run of suitably generous dimensions than a travel box? Because if so the guy can’t win, criticised for both letting and not letting the cat run free

  28. C@t
    It’s not a small cage. It’s an enclosed verandah with climbing castle. I’ll bet your cat doesn’t have a climbing castle- as well as a brother to keep him company.

  31. Not a lot of chatter on here re Wayne Swan comments re trickle down lite.
    IMO, he is a more credible alternative to Shorten than those normally put forward.

    Caveats;
    I am not advocating change.
    No idea of his popularity in the party factions.
    No idea of his willingness to take it on (I suspect he quite likes being a backbencher – mentor – ALP elder meddler).

  32. “The money allocated to the ABC should be used to set up community-based radio and TV”

    You can’t have the community thinking for themselves.
    Centrally based propaganda is so much more efficient.

  33. TrogS,
    I’ll bet your cat doesn’t have a climbing castle- as well as a brother to keep him company.

    As stated previously, I believe in giving native fauna a fair go here, so I don’t have a cat, let alone two.

  39. C@tmomma
    “As stated previously, I believe in giving native fauna a fair go here, so I don’t have a cat, let alone two.”

    If I had my way, cats would be banned from the entire country. I put them in the same category as cane toads, rabbits, and foxes.
    Dogs can stay. I love dogs.

  41. CTar1
    I read somewhere that the question had been asked of him (suggestion made?) why he hasnt retired yet. It was Dastyari who backed him up saying he was a mentor to many younger ALP members.

    62 isnt too old. And he is from Queensland. 5 of 8 marginals are in Queensland (electorates with a margin either way of under 1%).

    But I think you are right. He is still there for reasons other than becoming leader. eg I doubt he would have made the Guardian today had he not been a backbencher.

  43. Trump to NBC: “When I decided to [fire Comey], I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”

    Oh, well, that confirms it then.

    Now watch as US republicans tie themselves in knots trying to say his words are being misinterpreted.

  44. Just rechecked the NBN rollout for my address.

    A few months ago, my suburb was listed as all FTTC (Fibre to the kerb), then a few weeks ago, it was listed as a combination of FTTC and Fibre to the Premesis, with my address on the happy side of the dividing line.

    Now today, it has been downgraded to FTTC.

    Anyone know of any announced changes, perhaps in the budget? Or are they simply downgrading service further without announcing it.

  45. em>Zoidlord
    Batteries is never a good ideas for long term, it also creates landfill that we are trying to get rid off, it’s also not good for the environment as batteries can leak, and also said before create more landfill…

    Batteries are very highly recyclable. It’s a crying shame that there aren’t more drop-off points and/or councils collecting them from the recycling bin. Most, if not all, battery chemicals can be recovered and re-used, and the metal containers recycled.

    I would encourage anyone to consider holding onto used batteries and dropping them off at designated points. Aldi stores are one such example of a drop-off point.

    http://recyclingnearyou.com.au/batteries/

  46. Blanket Criticism @ #1239 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 1:02 pm

    Trump to NBC: “When I decided to [fire Comey], I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”

    Oh, well, that confirms it then.

    Now watch as US republicans tie themselves in knots trying to say his words are being misinterpreted.

    No, he’s actually made it very easy for them:

    “Basically everything that comes out of Trump’s mouth is a lie. That statement was no exception.”

  47. The NBN rollout and take up is going swimmingly here. The local school has been without phone and internet for 4 weeks… and counting, with no timeframe for its return being promised by the telcos.

  48. Zoidlord – having gone back and read the previous page, I now see that your post may have been in jest. My bad.

    I stand by my previous post though!

  49. Good grief! Elizabeth Farrelly, she who said Malcolm would reign for a thousand years, is having a whinge because, surprise, surprise, people are critical of her strike-breaking.

    Then again, she’s not so much a strike-breaker as a joke.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/you-cant-cross-a-picket-line-you-were-never-behind-20170511-gw2xf7.html?login_token=cveum6tF2h1eASg437GOnkMWo3chcjM6dGB1hNPXFtKGvOvliX03PfvMzq-BtO94344lTC656HF1SNosbYGbZw&expiry=1494559400&single_use_token=mYwLVOP1nw_KErdzjRi4ZGWHmqDbMh32poO037rkZz7HgB6oghC13nuBo2nLEI5h1DGdWUvuq5PNx5u_e1c7dw#comments

  50. JimmyDoyle.

    Aside from her usual sillyness around phrasing and word choice, I actually thought it was a well considered piece.

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