Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

A budget eve widening of the Coalition’s electoral deficit from Essential, while a private poll finds cabinet minister Christian Porter struggling in his marginal seat on the fringes of Perth.

The regular Essential Research result is the only entry in an inevitably quiet week of opinion polling, to be followed by a post-budget deluge next week. This result is a good one for Labor, who tick up a point on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote to 37%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation maintaining an ongoing trend in dropping a point to 6%. Despite that, the regular monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull up two on approval to 37%, although he is also up one on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is up one on each, to 34% and 45%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 39-28 to 39-31.

Other findings relate to the government’s university funding, with university funding cuts (28% to 56%) and student fee hikes (30% to 60%) heavily opposed, but lowering the threshold for student loan repayment slightly favoured (47% to 44%). Thirty-one per cent rated that students should pay a lesser share of the cost of their degrees, 20% thought it should be more, and 37% thought the current ratio (42% paid by students, 58% by the government) was about right. The poll also finds 71% rating a return to a budget surplus as important, versus only 19% for not important.

One other poll tidbit: the Financial Review reports a poll conducted by WA Opinion Polls for Labor-aligned communications company Campaign Capital finds cabinet minister Christian Porter trailing 52.2-47.8 in his Perth outskirts seat of Pearce, from a swing of 5.8%. The primary vote numbers make no distinction between “other” and “unsure”, so I’m not exactly sure what to make of them, but for the record they have Labor on 38.0% (34.3% at the election), Liberal on 33.8% (45.4%), the Greens on 8.0% (11.0%) and One Nation on 10.4% (uncontested). The poll was conducted a fortnight ago from a sample of 712.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,323 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Ah the NBN “upgrade” . Just received their “migration package” . Reading the “nbn explained” I find this passage.

    “Home phones will connect to your Telstra Gateway(modem) instead of the telephone wall plug………….” “Telstra will provide a new cordless home phone that is paired with your Telstra connection kit…….”This means that your home phone service will not work during a power outage. Meaning you won’t be able to make or receive phone calls if there is no power to the Gateway, including calls to Emergency ‘000’ services”.

  2. C@t
    I am not a great fan of cats because of the wildlife issue. But try and explain to my two daughters that they can’t have cats (usually strays that turn up) .Good luck. I also believe that if you are going to keep them they should be properly looked after.

  3. @ Poroti – wait, so you’re saying that when NBN finally reaches my suburb, Telstra are going to turn up and force me to take a landline phone?! Will they also enforce parachute pants and mix tapes of the Spice Girls and Backstreet boys?

    It’s pretty much fascism.

  4. jimmydoyle @ #1242 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:06 pm

    em>Zoidlord
    Batteries is never a good ideas for long term, it also creates landfill that we are trying to get rid off, it’s also not good for the environment as batteries can leak, and also said before create more landfill…

    Batteries are very highly recyclable. It’s a crying shame that there aren’t more drop-off points and/or councils collecting them from the recycling bin. Most, if not all, battery chemicals can be recovered and re-used, and the metal containers recycled.
    I would encourage anyone to consider holding onto used batteries and dropping them off at designated points. Aldi stores are one such example of a drop-off point.
    http://recyclingnearyou.com.au/batteries/

    Jimmy, for years I have been pissed off by seeing a thing on batteries indicating they were not to be tossed in the rubbish and this only applying to European countries.
    I believe any place that sells batteries should have a recycling bin.
    I have been collecting mine and taking them to a council recycling place every so often. The so often has stretched out to being pretty infrequent as I have converted to rechargeable batteries and they don’t often die.

  5. poroti @ #1248 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    Ah the NBN “upgrade” . Just received their “migration package” . Reading the “nbn explained” I find this passage.
    “Home phones will connect to your Telstra Gateway(modem) instead of the telephone wall plug………….” “Telstra will provide a new cordless home phone that is paired with your Telstra connection kit…….”This means that your home phone service will not work during a power outage. Meaning you won’t be able to make or receive phone calls if there is no power to the Gateway, including calls to Emergency ‘000’ services”.

    Not even with backup battery?

  6. Voice Endeavour
    Just make sure your mobile battery is charged if there is an emergency. I’m soon to find out if FTTN it is also a “downgrade’ from ADSL2 as some people have claimed.

  7. The problem Swan faces re neo liberal economics and trickle down is memories of his time as treasurer.

    Not questioning that he’s been the best treasurer since PJK but that is a very very low bar to hurdle.

    After all the promises of return to surplus, advocacy for business tax cuts, and actual delivery of the last lot of significant income tax cuts to the 1% his critique comes across as being wise after the event and invites not unreasonable questions about why he didn’t do what he advocates now back when he was in the position to.

  8. voice endeavour @ #1250 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    @ Poroti – wait, so you’re saying that when NBN finally reaches my suburb, Telstra are going to turn up and force me to take a landline phone?! Will they also enforce parachute pants and mix tapes of the Spice Girls and Backstreet boys?
    It’s pretty much fascism.

    That is rubbish.
    You can have a ‘landline’ phone but not the traditional landline phone which drew power over the copper wires from the exchange.
    Your NBN landline will be over the NBN and hence relies on you supplying the power. But it is optional.

  9. TrogS,
    You could try explaining to your 2 girls, as I did to my 2 boys, repeatedly and over many loud complaints, that cats are not a good thing to have around in bush areas. Especially if you are trying to make them grow up as Green as you are. Then, next time you need a pet, get a dog. Cats are masters of sucking up and kicking down to all the poor wildlife struggling to survive around them. When your children are mature enough, they will agree with you and thank you, as mine did.

  11. VE, when I spoke to Telstra, they indicated, I might be able to keep my setup. I have naked cable at the moment and I was sort of hoping to keep it, but on reflection I think I will have to flick over to NBN but don’t have to have a phone. Many RSP offer a phone for an extra $10 a month. Talk to them as you may be able to just have data and not pay extra for something you don’t want.

  12. ratsak @ #1254 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    The problem Swan faces re neo liberal economics and trickle down is memories of his time as treasurer.
    Not questioning that he’s been the best treasurer since PJK but that is a very very low bar to hurdle.
    After all the promises of return to surplus, advocacy for business tax cuts, and actual delivery of the last lot of significant income tax cuts to the 1% his critique comes across as being wise after the event and invites not unreasonable questions about why he didn’t do what he advocates now back when he was in the position to.

    Swan’s biggest mistake was to restate unreliable forecasts as ‘promises’.
    He is a smart guy who I have a lot of time for, so I just couldn’t believe he could do such a dumb thing. Maybe he was leaned on to do it? It just makes no sense otherwise.

  14. bemused @ #879 Thursday, May 11, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    aqualung @ #872 Thursday, May 11, 2017 at 6:23 pm

    Bemused,
    I’m no expert but are taxes normally considered a business expense?

    No, but you don’t pay taxes on levies, taxes and imposts already paid as far as I am aware. And that seems to be what you think should happen.
    I am not an accountant, let’s see what someone like Grimace thinks.

    Generally speaking, all expenses incurred in generating income are tax deductible for taxpayers, so unless part of the legislation for this levy on banks specifically says that the levy is not tax deductible or specifically limits it’s deductilibilty (such as for “luxury” passenger vehciles), then it will be fully deductible. The same applies to PRRT, import duties, payroll tax, FBT etc.

    There are only a few common business expenses which are not tax deductible, such as, fines an penalties, entertainment expenses under certain circumstances and depreciation on passenger vehicles in excess of ~$58,000.

  15. peebee @ #1258 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    VE, when I spoke to Telstra, they indicated, I might be able to keep my setup. I have naked cable at the moment and I was sort of hoping to keep it, but on reflection I think I will have to flick over to NBN but don’t have to have a phone. Many RSP offer a phone for an extra $10 a month. Talk to them as you may be able to just have data and not pay extra for something you don’t want.

    Nope.
    When NBN is available, everything is moved onto it. Telstra telephone exchanges will be phased out and all the copper will go to NBN.

  16. Coalition Tea Lady‏ @ItsBouquet · 4h4 hours ago

    We’ve come a long way…in 2014 Hockey was chasing Newstart recipients into the gutter….in 2017 we’re chasing them into the sewer

  17. You have also highlighted another problem with Fraudband. A relative runs a little business and has phone lines out to various parts of the property. When he got Fraudband, his new phone was attached to the modem. The phones at the end of all the lines no longer worked. Telstra have twigged to this by providing a cordless phone. The problem is, he has to remember to bring it with him as he goes around his business. He has to remember to charge it up back at base. All in all, something that worked well and didn’t need any thought to operate, is now a pain in the arsk.

  18. Bemused

    Looking at the Gateway it does not appear to have a battery. Back up or otherwise, wall plug or nothing. No power no phone. So keep the mobile charged for emergencies.

  19. grimace @ #1261 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:51 pm

    bemused @ #879 Thursday, May 11, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    aqualung @ #872 Thursday, May 11, 2017 at 6:23 pm

    Bemused,
    I’m no expert but are taxes normally considered a business expense?

    No, but you don’t pay taxes on levies, taxes and imposts already paid as far as I am aware. And that seems to be what you think should happen.
    I am not an accountant, let’s see what someone like Grimace thinks.

    Generally speaking, all expenses incurred in generating income are tax deductible for taxpayers, so unless part of the legislation for this levy on banks specifically says that the levy is not tax deductible or specifically limits it’s deductilibilty (such as for “luxury” passenger vehciles), then it will be fully deductible. The same applies to PRRT, import duties, payroll tax, FBT etc.
    There are only a few common business expenses which are not tax deductible, such as, fines an penalties, entertainment expenses under certain circumstances and depreciation on passenger vehicles in excess of ~$58,000.

    Thanks Grimace. I appreciate your expertise.

  20. Poroti

    No power no phone. So keep the mobile charged for emergencies.

    This is part of the so-called higher standard of living that we are supposed to rejoice in, but every ‘improvement’ forced on us with no choice, costs more money.

  21. Poroti, why have a landline? Waste of time. I don’t know anyone in the younger generation that doesn’t have a mobile. The landline is only a marketing tool to get inside your house. Even if you are on the do-not-call register, political party’s, charities and polling companies can still call you as they are exempt. Let alone, those helpful people from India and Nigeria that will ring you out of the blue to help you with problems to you computer that they have identified at their end.

  22. peebee @ #1264 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    You have also highlighted another problem with Fraudband. A relative runs a little business and has phone lines out to various parts of the property. When he got Fraudband, his new phone was attached to the modem. The phones at the end of all the lines no longer worked. Telstra have twigged to this by providing a cordless phone. The problem is, he has to remember to bring it with him as he goes around his business. He has to remember to charge it up back at base. All in all, something that worked well and didn’t need any thought to operate, is now a pain in the arsk.

    If there aren’t already solutions available, you can bet there soon will be.
    Only catch is they will be an extra expense.
    I have a cordless base station with 3 phones at different locations in the house. Not NBN though.

  23. I thought it didnt matter if you had backup power at home; if there is a blackout the NBN FTTN internet and phone will not work.

    Which is a worry because in one of last years blackouts the telstra mobile tower battery backup only lasted a few hours.

  24. poroti @ #1265 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Bemused
    Looking at the Gateway it does not appear to have a battery. Back up or otherwise, wall plug or nothing. No power no phone. So keep the mobile charged for emergencies.

    It will require power somehow, I presume it must be connected to the mains. Which would mean you can get a UPS for it and also keep your Internet running in a blackout.

  25. lizzie @ #1267 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    Poroti

    No power no phone. So keep the mobile charged for emergencies.

    This is part of the so-called higher standard of living that we are supposed to rejoice in, but every ‘improvement’ forced on us with no choice, costs more money.

    How’s your horse and buggy Lizzie?

  27. simon aussie katich @ #1270 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    I thought it didnt matter if you had backup power at home; if there is a blackout the NBN FTTN internet and phone will not work.
    Which is a worry because in one of last years blackouts the telstra mobile tower battery backup only lasted a few hours.

    The nodes have batteries.
    But as with the mobile phone towers, if a blackout is prolonged then their batteries will run out.

  29. Bemused I am being forced onto NBN HFC and from the information supplied to me the NBN equipment for this installation has no battery backup so when the power goes everything goes. Luckily my 91 year old mother’s person medical alarm was recently upgraded to a mobile phone connection but, as she refuses to use mobiles herself, the new setup will leave her without communications during blackouts if there is nobody in the house with a mobile.

  30. PeeBee
    Begging calls from charities etc caused me to pull the land line plug several years ago so it does not bother me as far as calls go. However I am sure there will be people and situations where no power = no landline will be very bad news. Although I do not use mine it is still there should the mobile network go out. Which it has on a couple of occasions.

  31. I’ve just stumbled across this (I’m sure others have seen it, and I’m just slow..)

    https://www.menziesrc.org/images/PDF/MRC_Gender__Politics_Report_2017_Update_web.pdf

    It’s the Liberal party’s analysis of why they’ve lost the women vote. Worth reading to get a grasp of how totally out of touch they are.

    For example, they quote Peter Reith saying that Julia Gillard was only preselected because of Labor’s gender quota, and (basically) that’s why she was a crap Prime Minister*.

    Tony Abbott was preselected without a gender quota, and he was pretty crap, but the report appears to think Reith’s proposition is perfectly sound.

    *Peter Reith’s assessment, not mine.

  32. Bemused, not according to NBNCo.
    **************
    Fibre to the Node (FTTN)
    Landline phone and internet services won’t work if there is a power outage either within the FTTN network or within your premises. Restoring power to your premises with an alternative power option will have no effect if the FTTN network is also experiencing power loss. You should consider keeping a charged mobile phone in case there is a power outage of any sort.
    **************

  33. This is the Malcolm Turnbull that has befuddled and disappointed Australians since coming to the prime ministership.

    They simply got him wrong. He is not a shape-shifter in the way Kevin Rudd was, but he has nevertheless confounded classification.

    Why? Because he is a firm occupant of the Australian centre. He is not from the left. And he is not from the right. He is a political bowerbird who steals anything that could look blue.

    …It was a big-spending, big-taxing budget that was not Labor-lite, but busy in its centrist repurposing of education and health policy.

    That said, Health Minister Greg Hunt’s creation of a Medicare Guarantee Fund — supposedly a special account covering every Australian’s Medicare costs — was the final surrender to Bill Shorten’s effective campaign.

    No government before has considered it necessary to hypothecate revenue into such a fund. Its alternative name could be the Mediscare Insurance Scheme.
    …
    But Mr Shorten has proven much more adept than Mr Turnbull at recasting the political battle, whether that be about values, fairness or social equity.

    Mr Shorten’s speech employed plenty of class war rhetoric, about millionaires and the big end of town, versus the battlers and the middle class.

    The PM would be unwise to underestimate the Labor leader’s ability to reframe the Medicare levy increase into a fairness question.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/federal-budget-2017/2017-05-12/federal-budget-2017-hatching-of-the-bowerbird-prime-minister/8521308

  35. I am wondering how the Node is powered. Is it from the adjacent grid or a lower powered source via the NBN cabling and connected to the grid at the exchange?

    The latter would be less susceptible to localised blackouts.

  36. Of course, dogs are only marginally worse than cats, and they’re a bigger contributor to carbon emissions for most households than the family car….

  38. There are some people in the community that need power and communication as without it, their lives are at peril. I know the screed from NBNco went to great lengths to let them know if I was in such a position. I am not, but I wonder what sort of special arrangement they have for these people?

  39. I have a landline, because mobile phones don’t get reception out here (supposedly we’re getting a tower sometime this year…)

    It’s very annoying, because the assumption is now that everyone has a mobile and many sites send you an access code via SMS. For some reason, people ring my mobile in preference to my home number, even though I always stress that ringing my mobile might mean I don’t get the message for days.

  40. kevjohnno @ #1279 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 2:08 pm

    Bemused I am being forced onto NBN HFC and from the information supplied to me the NBN equipment for this installation has no battery backup so when the power goes everything goes. Luckily my 91 year old mother’s person medical alarm was recently upgraded to a mobile phone connection but, as she refuses to use mobiles herself, the new setup will leave her without communications during blackouts if there is nobody in the house with a mobile.

    I believe I am destined for the same fate (HFC) which pisses me off no end as I recently watched fibre being run less than 100m from my home.
    Check and see if you can get equipment with a battery backup from your NBN retailer. If not, you can always resort to a UPS but at your expense.

  41. simon aussie katich @ #1282 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 2:11 pm

    Bemused, not according to NBNCo.
    **************
    Fibre to the Node (FTTN)
    Landline phone and internet services won’t work if there is a power outage either within the FTTN network or within your premises. Restoring power to your premises with an alternative power option will have no effect if the FTTN network is also experiencing power loss. You should consider keeping a charged mobile phone in case there is a power outage of any sort.
    **************

    Hmmm, I recall reading about their batteries and what an attractive itme they were for thieves. Maybe withdrawn for that reason.

  42. Sad but probably true:

    ДО СВИДА́НИЯ
    FBI Agents Worry White House Will Kneecap Russia Probe
    The acting FBI director may promise that the investigation into Trump-Russia connections will continue. Many agents aren’t buying it.

    JANA WINTER
    BETSY WOODRUFF

    On Tuesday night after James Comey got fired, FBI agents tasked with thwarting Russian intelligence operations started drinking.
    Two well-connected former FBI employees told The Daily Beast that counterintelligence agents working on Russia desk based at FBI headquarters in downtown Washington met for drinks in the hours after their boss’s firing and shared their concerns: that they would be moved to another division, and that their work on the Russia issue wouldn’t be a priority anymore.
    These are worries that have spread through the bureau in the days since Comey was fired: that the new administration will find ways to stymie investigations that could create political problems——especially on Russia. It’s a concern the president himself exacerbated in an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt that aired Thursday evening.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/12/fbi-agents-worry-white-house-will-kneecap-russia-probe

  43. simon aussie katich @ #1285 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 2:20 pm

    I am wondering how the Node is powered. Is it from the adjacent grid or a lower powered source via the NBN cabling and connected to the grid at the exchange?
    The latter would be less susceptible to localised blackouts.

    This has been much discussed on PB and elsewhere, including the amount of power the nodes will consume.
    NBN has to get the power from local power distributors.
    The NBN cabling from the ‘exchange’ (actually, point of connection) will be non-conducting fibre so no power through that.

  44. Zoomster,
    How’s the campaign to get the Cleanaway dump out of the middle of Howlong going? (If you know) 🙂

  45. Bowerbird. FMD.

    He is was and always will be an empty suit you morons. He goes for the bright shiny thing because he has never stood for anything he doesn’t see reflected in his shaving mirror.

    He is Brian Trumble, the no one who stands no where. Of course Shorten will always set the political agenda against a formless mirage.

  47. kevjohnno
    When my late mother in law was having landline reliability problems a few years ago I investigated and discovered you could get (then) a device that looked and worked pretty much like a conventional fixed line phone but which was actually on the mobile network. Pretty sure it had battery backup for the mains power as well. It cost a bit (not huge) but looked like it might have been the best option. However, the problems resolved an soon after her health declined and she spent most of the time in hospital so we never went ahead with it.

  48. For a budget credited with reset powers – with the potential to revive the Turnbull government’s ailing political fortunes – the backbench was curiously disengaged in parliament this week.

    There were lots of heads down diligently tending correspondence during the two question times immediately following the budget. A studious absence of emotion.

    If you call around a cross section of government people you piece together the “why” of the disengagement.

    Everyone sitting behind Malcolm Turnbull knows this budget is about shoring up Malcolm Turnbull, and this roll of the dice, this abrupt recasting of the central character of the government, will either work – the rising tide will lift all boats – or it won’t.
    …
    The sloganeering, the ideological posturing, and the manifestations of bizarre reactionary right-wing victimhood, might please the after dark ranters and monologue merchants on Sky News, creating a toxic feedback loop in conservative circles – but no-one else cares.

    But it’s fair to say conservative MPs don’t like this week’s change of emphasis, and some are actively holding their noses. Tony Abbott’s endorsement of the budget was through entirely gritted teeth. No-one at this delicate point wants to play spoiler. But recently history tells us that will change, and rapidly, if anything with this budget starts to go south.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/12/every-liberal-mp-knows-the-budget-was-about-shoring-up-malcolm-turnbull-for-better-or-worse?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  50. Lizzie

    Ratsak
    The look on Mal’s face during the OL’s speech suggested he was extremely unhappy

    Well he did have to sit there and look uninterested as Shorten quite plainly suggested Truffles is a tax evader. My highlight of the night.

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