Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.
The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:
In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.
The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:
The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.
Swamprat
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:11 am
Har, The Guardian, that wee Yoonionist propaganda sheet
The rise of the SNP has been a factor in the decline of effective anti-Tory representation in England. The SNP is as overtly anti-Labour as it is anti-Tory. As well, the SNP embodies the kind of regional fragmentation that many regard as a threat to peace, order, stability and prosperity in Europe generally. The same sort of expressions can be seen in Italy, Spain, France, Austria, Holland and Belgium. Even in Germany, there are centrifugal political voices. They are being encouraged by Europe’s outcast, Putin.
The view of the Guardian seems to me to not so much specifically Unionist as to be about the retention of the existing pluralist and law-based status quo.
Re BW @10:17AM. Are harbour water temperatures (SST or deeper) trending faster than atmospheric temps, the same, or lower in Sydney?
I don’t have that level of detail. Tasman Sea surface water temperatures have been pretty consistently above average in recent years, especially so this year.
“Scotixt” – Scoxit?
Boerwar
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:32 am
B
The risks for democracy are large.
Indeed. The risks are there to see for the protection of human rights, the rule of law, for parliamentary democracies in many places. Gangsterism is making big comeback.
😆 of the day from Abbott fanboi Sheridan.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/trump-and-turnbull-put-australiaus-alliance-back-on-track/news-story/75432c8402d215692192542174196ee8
S777
I know that greater numbers of more tropical fish species are reaching Sydney Harbour.
These used to pretty well all die during the winter.
But some have apparently now established breeding populations.
lizzie @ #53 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:11 am
What you are referring to is ‘elevated rail’ which is commonplace in cities elsewhere.
“Skyrail” is IMHO an idiotic term that the govt should try to bury.
Melbourne already has sections of elevated rail such as between Flinders St and Southern Cross stations. Elsewhere rail is elevated by means of ugly embankments which are like a solid wall through a suburb. None of this is the subject of loud squealing. Nor is the many Km of elevated freeways.
The objections involve a lot of astroturfing by the Libs doing their best to whip up NIMBY sentiment.
I think the govt should not allow the building of another mm of rail at ground level in the metropolitan area. It should all be elevated or underground.
itzadream
Musk’s TED talk is a mixed bag. Yes, he’s very impressive. But he’s also famous for being overly optimistic in his estimating.
For instance – his timescale for fully autonomous cars – 2 years. Not too credible, given recent setbacks and accidents. Also, Musk first made this “2 year” prediction about 3 years ago. Today it is still “2 years” away.
Timescale for nearly universal solar roof penetration 40 – 50 years. This seems more credible, at least in the developed world. Less credible elsewhere.
I didn’t hear a prediction for penetration rates of electric cars. Did I miss it?
Finally, Musk repeated his estimate that 100 gigafactories would be required to meet world demand. Tesla has plans to start building perhaps another 2 or 4 in the coming year. Chance of Tesla building one of those gigafactories in Australia would be very close to nil. Why would they, when the Australian market would be saturated by its output within just a few months, and then all your batteries would have to be shipped overseas? Tesla will build the factories where the markets are.
P
Neocon Far Right Inc believe that, with Mad Dog Mattis et al in key places, they have Trump where they want him. Bannon’s demise was part of that process.
So Sheridan suddenly goes all orgasmic about Trump.
That Turnbull went over to publicly lick Trump’s arse is the icing on the cake.
BW
Easy. Give community media a funding boost. Some good journalists being paid in regional areas would force the networks to address local. Community television only needs access to good studios and to funding paid journalists.
They can then Vodcast. There are good video podcasts now. I watch some of them from overseas. I think with some good funding giving local content would see webcasts take off. A community station doing this could do a weekly news report or monthly depending on the area covered.
No spectrum fees applied. However without some real funding for real journalism its not going to happen.
Note. I think free to air television broadcast for community television is now dead.
G
Easy.
Sure. Sure.
BW
Yes easy if there is political will. As someone mentioned recently the French do it.
The expensive part is funding the wages and studios. 4K broadcast can be done via the smart phone.
G
My point was that I didn’t think that rules mattered.
And that funding of independent journalism would make a difference.
Thank you for explicating my thoughts.
But ‘easy’ it ain’t.
BW
Yes its easy. We have even had a funding model used in the Australia Council. The problem is the political will to do it.
Its a contribution that Fraser saw was worth making with radio in the technology of the time.
The community media journalist would be able to do print audio and video. Its a hell of a lot cheaper in hardware to broadcast via the web. So if we can fund artists for books and such projects we can fund journalists.
If Sco-Mo is going to impose the medicare levy on high income earners, even if they have private health insurance, isn’t that doing to make the insurers go totally bananas. It would be a terrible hit to their business models because people will leave private insurance in droves. It would also leave the way open for Labor to reduce the rate at which the levy cuts in. That’s why I just can’t see that happening
If Fifield is going to reduce to the fees to commercial broadcasters, why shouldn’t it take away their second channels and give them to arts/community organisations?
A
I am not sure of which policy settings become thresholds that affect absolute decisions.
There are significant penalties for leaving private insurance.
What seems to me to be more likely is that minimalist private insurance packages will become more popular.
This will have what I assume to be the implicit goal of the Coalition: transfer health costs to the states and territories.
A11
The vested interest is too powerful on broadcast spectrum. Television delivery has changed. For those regional areas getting nothing a local station app for smartphone/tablet home hub like Apple TV Telstra Home Hulu etc makes sense.
It might even be commercially viable without subsidies when someone sees a viable opportunity as broadcast networks get less and less local
Great stuff — our branch President’s letter on penalty rates makes the Saturday ‘Border Mail’ — http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4637615/letters-to-the-editor/?cs=14
Here is an example of what is possible with video podcasting from the US.
THIS WEEK IN GOOGLE
Hosted by Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, Stacey Higginbotham
Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, Stacey Higginbotham, and their guests talk about the latest Google and cloud computing news.
Records live every Wednesday at 4:00pm Eastern / 1:00pm Pacific / 20:00 UTC.
https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-google
P1
(dashing up to town for the night)
Totally agree about the fairy dust. Part of the charm for me. But his belief that we need ideas to get up to every day resonates. His point about the collapse of the USA space programme is well made. We know where the money went, and the ideas. When did trickle downers last have an idea, except to build weapons.
It’s a few days since I watched it, and I thought he predicted total electric in some Muskesque time frame, I could be wrong.
No frost here for years, and we used to have snow flurries. I grew up in Sydney (Nth Shore gullies) and on frosty mornings had to crank (Crank I tell you) the old Morris Oxford to drive to Formal Wear Hire Parramatta over the wooden De Burghs Bridge (Wooden I tell you) on Sat mornings to serve this guy who came in (every Saturday) to get a dress for his sister who was just about the same size as he was. The penny never dropped, but I was just 16.
Regarding the Tasman Sea: that nest of Commies known as the CSIRO have identified it as one of the global warming hot spots: https://blog.csiro.au/warming-in-the-tasman-sea-a-global-warming-hot-spot/
Ab11
It would be a terrible hit to their business models because people will leave private insurance in droves.
I don’t think they would. It would be a mildly bitter pill high income earners would swallow, and absorb. Perhaps a burp, not much else.
Just about to head off to the SA Chapter knees up at Kapunda!
Poroti – Sheridan should do his zip up.
@socrates
I think it’s cheaper for him to start a war than use his tax payers money to be abused…
It shows the ‘rarified’ atmosphere the top journos live in that they are SO DETERMINED to see Malcolm Turnbull succeed in much the same way they wanted to see Gillard fail.
In both cases they are blind to the ‘on-the-ground’ truth, I suspect deliberately so, because they have this preformed image of what government should be. Economically conservative, preserving a comfortable status quo.
The latest media changes will likely foster another step in that direction.
They look upon the Howard years with rose-coloured glasses – there was stability and a period of success (never mind that outside influences were mostly responsible) and they seek to get back to that time, no matter the unrealistic-ness of that ideal, or the consequences in the current era.
Grimace
The difference between solar thermal and solar pv is the level of engineering. Solar thermal is relatively complex and heavily engineered, and this not conducive to price reductions through economies of scale. Solar pv is very simple from an engineering point of view, the complexity lies in electronics which is highly conducive to technical improvement and economies of scale.
thus not
While on the subject of video podcasts. Here is one from Oxford University on energy.
https://podcasts.ox.ac.uk/changing-world-future-energy-industry
Sections of the Rabid Right think that the obvious solution for Abbott’s narcissism is to make him GG.
That should work.
LoL
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-06/trump-does-not-think-us-should-copy-australias-health-system/8502512
“Briefly
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:34 am
Swamprat
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:11 am
Har, The Guardian, that wee Yoonionist propaganda sheet
The rise of the SNP has been a factor in the decline of effective anti-Tory representation in England. The SNP is as overtly anti-Labour as it is anti-Tory. As well, the SNP embodies the kind of regional fragmentation that many regard as a threat to peace, order, stability and prosperity in Europe generally. The same sort of expressions can be seen in Italy, Spain, France, Austria, Holland and Belgium. Even in Germany, there are centrifugal political voices. They are being encouraged by Europe’s outcast, Putin.
The view of the Guardian seems to me to not so much specifically Unionist as to be about the retention of the existing pluralist and law-based status quo.”
What an extraordinary piece of unreflective writing. Where to begin.
1. “The rise of the SNP has been a factor in the decline of effective anti-Tory representation in England.”
Scottish people who vote for self determination are responsible for the decline of effective anti-Tory representation in ENGLAND? Wow, that is the greatest victory since Braveheart.
The Labour Party with its adoption of Bliarist capitalism, privatisations, run down of public services, general incompetence and war mongery has had zero effect, i gather?
2. “The SNP is as overtly anti-Labour as it is anti-Tory”
You are really projecting here. The Labour Party in Scotland has, for decades had one over-arching policy “SNP BAD”. It has become so obsessed with it it has entered into deals with the Tories, tactically voted to support Tories, opposed SNP policies for the sake of them, even when they are “social democratic” and essentially expelled any Labour supporter who dares support self-determination. It has ruled parts of Scotland for a century with little apparent social and economic improvements in the lives of their loyal voters. It became a career path for many self-serving useless politicians.
The Labour Party leadership (not most of its members) chose to wrap itself in red, white and blue British Nationalism as good nationalism. Then had the hide to condemn “nationalism”.
3. “the SNP embodies the kind of regional fragmentation that many regard as a threat to peace, order, stability and prosperity in Europe generally.”
Really? The SNP is pro-EU. Overwhelmingly, the Scottish people voted to stay part of Europe. Its the Labour Party which is terrified of its constituents to take a strong stance on “remaining”. Scotland is not a “region” it has always been a nation.
4. “They are being encouraged by Europe’s outcast, Putin.”
You are the first writer ever to imply that Scottish self determination is run/influenced/linked with Putin. Grubby right wing laborite that you are.
Putin will get no satisfaction from an independent Scotland in Europe. I think UIKP is your best bet there (now incorporated into the English National Party – otherwise known as the Tories).
CTaR1
Amusing. Without even trying.
So which fake news is which fake news?
Bemused
I agree with you. As I understand it, underground in some parts of the line is either impossible, or ruinously expensive.
Didn’t you notice that I put ‘Skyrail’ in quotes?
S
Whatever else the SNP may or may not be they are right about one thing.
When England Brexits, Scotland has the right to decide about Scotixt.
Same same.
IMO, economically, it would be a difficult choice with hugely significant pluses and minuses both ways for the Scots.
What should be clear is goose gander.
The thing that brings a wry smile to my face when I look at the Canberra Press Gallery fawnication over Turnbull, such as Fruit Tingle’s latest, is that they are basically tripping over their tongues as they rush to the keyboard to type sweet nothings into Turnbull’s ear about the fact that Turnbull is simply appropriating a Labor agenda with a twist of Liberal thrown in.
Turnbull isn’t blind, nor is he deaf or dumb about what issues mean something to the electorate. And if it means nicking Labor’s best ideas from whenever, then he will do it and sell it with a better voice than Bill Shorten.
Though the same also goes for the best ideas of the Populists, he’ll give them a spin and a bit of spit and polish also before retailing them back to the nation. I don’t think he cares, really, where his agenda comes from, as long as it keeps him where he wants to be and where he wants to stay for as long as it takes to spivify the nation in his image.
And those Canberra Press Gallery journalists who also play the game of musical chairs to keep their own feet under a desk in Canberra and seat looking down on it all, will continue to lap it up, simply because, I think, Labor doesn’t do Twinkle Toes Super Salesmen who can lie through their teeth about the brilliance of their ideas. It appears to me to be that that is all that you need to impress the political gatekeepers at the moment.
This is an important discussion about the abuse of the concept of independence for a public broadcaster:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/05/06/the-abcs-unchartered-waters/14939928004598?cb=1494027602
zoomster:
Good stuff indeed! Btw a facebook friend of mine replied to a comment you posted on a Destroy the Joint post last night.
Talk about 6 degrees of separation!
Cat,
You are right about Turnbull grabbing the labor policy presents from under the tree and wrapping them in new paper.
However, I do not see this as being bad for labor. Turnbull is promising improved education funding, changes to 457 visasto improve job opportunities for Aussie workers, electricity price reduction, action on housing affordability etc etc. All of these policy areas are labor owned and Turnbull has decided to fight labor on its strengths. As well, in his haste to take ownership Turnbull has put together hard arsed imitations of core labor policy and thrown it out into the sunlight without considering the implications. It is all about short term politics.
The lived experience will be completely at odds with what Turnbull has promised either directly or by inference through the MSM. Education spending will come back to bite him on the arse, the 457 policy will blow up at some stage as there will be companies trying it on and bringing in cheap labour. That is a certainty. Electricity costs will not go down. Housing will not be cheaper. All of this will resonate in mainstream Australia far more than the noise coming from Turnbull and his MSM propaganda unit. Any short term boost will not last. Jose many times can Yurnbull promise the world and deliver nothing ? He is on shaky ground as it is. Medium term the politics are all in the favour of labor.
As well, fighting on labor so territory gives labor a huge opportunity to out Turnbull Turnbull. Shrten and labor are not being outmanoeuvred by Turnbull. They know what he is offering and gave p,entry of home and opportunity to “out policy “him.
I really believe Turnbull has lost the medium and long term politics and he and the MSM have failed to see it.
Anyway, time will tell.
Cheers.
guytaur @ #118 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 11:12 am
It’s been several years since my wife and I have watched free to air for anything but AFL. Between Australian Netflix, and the VPN client so we can access US Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime we’ve found FTA TV and Foxtel totally redundant.
Interesting insight into where the Trump Imbroglio is going……
Malcolm Nance Retweeted
7h
Chris Sampson @TAPSTRIMEDIA
Quote of week: Comey -grand juries (MainDOJ-eastVA) on #russians #activemeasures with Sen Hirono (with nod to Libby Case) @ValeriePlame
1:28
Please excuse my grammar and spelling in my last post.
Cheers.
This link should work
https://mobile.twitter.com/TAPSTRIMEDIA/status/860575445498179585
bk @ #124 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 11:36 am
I like the idea of the SA Chapter meetup. Is anyone interested in a WA one?
lizzie @ #135 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 12:12 pm
It is a term I try to avoid at all costs.
I understand that the section around Murrumbeena (or at least east of Caulfield) used to be a swamp. Tunneling through a filled-in swamp might pose a few difficulties.
Bemused
Let’s see the Libs take it on!
Vic:
Real Time had a former CIA counter-terrorism person on the panel. In overtime he made some very interesting comments about the Trump imbroglio. He reckons towards the end of this year things will get very very bad for Team Trump.
Grimace:
I think WA Bludgers are too vastly scattered. But a Perth catch up draw a few.
Confessions’ Real Time, Overtime:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXardXwJy-A