BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

  1. What I’d like to know is what evidence supports the assertion that those who have somehow managed to afford a drug habit despite living below the poverty line will drop their drug habits after their welfare is blocked. What science is it based on? What study showed this was a good idea?

  2. Because what we really need to be doing for drug addicts is to make them even more desperate, remove any possible living situation and give them nothing to lose, that’s totally going to result in a safer society for all of us.

    But hey, who gives a toss if our society goes down the tubes, so long as our economy is thriving, right? It’ll only be four years until we’re in surplus again! Just like they said every previous year. It’s always just around the corner.

  3. I’m really far too angry to be posting right now. I apologise, I’m going to go make myself some herbal tea or something.

  4. Blanket Criticism @ 1840

    I might be okay with the drug testing, if some sort of rehabilitation was offered when a positive result is found.

    —————–

    The assumption being that drug use is inherently a bad thing, with no potential benefits. Or at least only among social security recipients.

    This policy, of course, has nothing whatsoever to do with the welfare of recipients, or improving the social security system in any way. It is nothing more than yet another cynical bashing of that system and its users, coupled with the punitive authoritarian mindset that typifies the cons.

  5. Sorry, BC, that might have come across as critical of you when it wasn’t meant to be.

    Like you, I probably shouldn’t say anything right now, too fucking angry.

    Labor better stand up to this filth. I am not confident that the will.

  6. “national debt ceiling has been lifted to $600 billion”

    Oh hey suddenly realised why the Greens have been all out full on carrying on about an advert that had a picture which looked a lot like the Greens senate team

  7. Looks like the anti-poor wing of the Liberal Party is getting what they want – drug testing, more hours on make-work for “work for the dole” to make Real Australians ™ feel good about kicking the “bludgers”….oh, wait, I nearly forgot about the whole “three strikes” policy too. And 14 additional locations for “trialling” the cashless welfare card, preperatory to a nation-wide rollout.

    Notable for its complete absence: Any policy to actually create jobs for the unemployed.

    Remind me – why are we any better than America, again?

  8. Notable for its complete absence: Any policy to actually create jobs for the unemployed.

    —————

    Goes hand in hand with their evidence-free approach to governance.

  9. Gizmodo is reporting that as part of a new legislation as part of a package of telco law changes in this winter sitting, it is proposed that a $7+/month levy on fixed-line NBN connection, and will go up to $8 by 2022.

  10. Barney:
    Good question.

    My assertion was a hyperbolically expanded impression that a sense of purpose, a sense of worth, a sense of belonging is not unrelated to employment status, and that drugs may well be a refuge and one of the ways that the less adequate, or less supported, have of dealing with rejection, and to wit, the converse might apply.

    Here’s one major study, a literature review 1990-2010, Henkel, Frankfurt, published 2011 Current Drug Abuse Review. Abstract here.

    * Risky alcohol consumption is more prevalent in the unemployed
    * Problematic substance abuse increases likelihood of unemployment
    * Unemployment is a significant risk factor for substance abuse and subsequent disorders
    * Unemployment increases relapse rate after alcohol and drug treatment

    Here’s a brief notation from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare to the effect:

    * Unemployed people were far more likely to smoke and use illicit drugs than people who were employed

  11. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an ad campaign by the banks trying to stop their hit, a bit like the miners.
    Anna Bligh is going to have to work very hard for her 30 pieces of silver.

  12. Rraara
    “How much is a drug test per recipient anyway? I remembered there being a similar debate in a US state and it turned out that it cost more to test all the welfare recipient than the amount saved denying drug failures their payout.”
    Completely true. Punitive drug testing had been tried and failed in many countries but its the optics that matter nowadays.

  13. Maybe we should be drug testing the immeasurable number of Australian receiving Middle Class Welfare in the form of negative gearing.

  14. Negative gearing is not just for the middle class, it is for the upper class. It is not welfare, it is a wealth subsidy.

  15. It’s an enticement to put capital into loss-making investments. Incredibly detrimental loss-making investments that also have the side-effect of driving up the price of homes for everyone else at the same time.

    Banks probably love it, especially since the low interest rates currently mean they can’t generate much revenue unless they’re lending out huge sums of cash. They need astronomical real-estate prices to lift their operating margins.

  16. Personal banking about to become more expensive across the board. Likely to be another cost shift that impacts the poorest the hardest as such things always do.
    As for the drug testing, it will just lead to a spike in suicides and property crime.

  17. Fairness is only a term that LNP Uses when minimising the losses for the rich, it has nothing to do with those who are not rich.

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