BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. What Ratsack said.

    Keane (Crikey):
    That’s the risk for Turnbull and Morrison, and what makes this document a desperate political gamble. The biggest threat to this budget isn’t on the other side of Parliament, or on the crossbenches – it’s sitting behind Morrison as he delivers his budget speech. If this budget doesn’t click with voters, that threat will crystallise and remove both men before the end of the year.

  2. “Tonight’s budget is a cut in real infrastructure funding, not an increase. It means that we’re going to see less infrastructure build over the next four years not more. This is the lowest level that we’ve seen in general government infrastructure funding in the past decade.”

    Yes, and as I said before the spend that remains is biased towards freeways that will actually be toll roads. The user pays neoliberal mindset is alive and well in Liberal transport spending. $10 billion may sound a lot, but when you take out a few billion for a country rail vote buy, split the rest between six states, and then spread it over four years, you can’t do much. For example, there is no money here for the Brisbane cross river rail, Canberra Metro, or Adelaide rail electrification.

  3. I’m also interested in the pea and thimble trick with Snowy 2.0; apparently that will only proceed if the Victorian and NSW governments sell their share of the present scheme to the Feds, with the proceeds of the sale to be invested by each State in approved infrastructure projects.

    I assume that the Feds will then claim credit for the state infrastructure project as well, when in fact all they’ve done is bought an asset from the state.

  4. John Reidy @ #1786 Tuesday, May 9th, 2017 – 10:01 pm

    I am not sure where is the problem for Labor.
    I guess they assume the full company tax cuts will go ahead.

    I assume Labor would:

    1. Retain/restore the deficit levy.
    2. Scrap the company tax cuts, at least for large businesses.
    3. Fix negative-gearing, at least on brownfields investment properties.
    4. Leave the Libs’s tax-hikes in place.
    5. Spend most of the proceeds from 1-4 on better services (and/or fixing the uni situation).
    6. Earmark some of the proceeds from 1-4 as ‘not for spending’, so they can claim all of “better services”, “smaller deficit”, “faster path to surplus”, and “no new taxes for anyone earning less than $180,000 a year”.

    If they can’t win an election off of that, they’re completely hopeless.

  5. Barney, he looked absolutely blotto. And lit up like a fire engine when the drug testing of job seekers came up.

  6. Anna Bligh, now head of the Bankers’ Association, says banks don’t have a ‘money making machine’. But they don’t need one. They will increase the extent of their legal pilfering (a.k.a. bank fees and charges).

    Anyway, Nicholas will say that thy actually crate money, so what’s the problem?

  7. …Anyway, Nicholas will say that they actually create money, so what’s the problem?.

    OK, this can should be the last.

  8. First Dog on the Moon:
    “I like Albo, he is a funny bloke. His party voted to send homosexual asylum seekers to a country where being gay is punishable by imprisonment. That sort of thing used to bother me somewhat but now I can no longer bear it at all. At some point in the past few years I lost my capacity to look past that sort of thing. Now it just makes me cross.”
    “I see Sam Dastyari who is a pretty funny guy as well, I was going to tell him he was a disgrace too. Actually last year after the budget I ran into him in a bar and told him as articulately as the whisky would allow that he and the entire rightwing of the New South Wales ALP were responsible for everything that was wrong with Australia today. Might have been a bit harsh, he is a lovely bloke though.”

  9. The luvvies over at the IPA must be having apopleptic fits ….
    Reports of bodies falling from the 2nd flr at 410 Collins St.

  10. Briefly:

    But what if the Abbottobads simply continue their slow drip drip of feeding to the media? They’d be mad to do otherwise.

  11. How much is a drug test per recipient anyway? I remembered there being a similar debate in a US state and it turned out that it cost more to test all the welfare recipient than the amount saved denying drug failures their payout.

  12. Will people complaining about tax rises for middle income earners and tax cuts for millionaires please stop their class warfare!

    You may recall recently that Turnbull actualy complained about states taking the credit for delivering infrastructure projects with HIS money. Malcolm wants more adoration.

  13. Raaraa

    Never mind the drugtest cost. How much will it cost us in the end if people are booted off welfare, have no job, steal to survive or worse, and wind up going through the criminal justice system? We know how well it works in USA.

  14. So do all new babies owe $25,000 or does it go up and down by a few dollars according to each days birth figures

  15. Over 65s who downsize can make a $300K non-concessional contribution into their SMSF, to help free up property, or something. That’s pretty generous. How’s that work? No net change in property numbers. The more expensive larger property comes onto the market, and a smaller cheaper one leaves. And who needs encouraging to downsize, like there’s not enough reasons already.

  16. But what if the Abbottobads simply continue their slow drip drip of feeding to the media? They’d be mad to do otherwise.

    The thing is they probably don’t need to. The IPA and the Murdoch hacks will take this as proof that Turnbull never was one of them and needs to go. Those loons don’t need any encouragement.

    I’ve got my money on a lot of work being put into polishing up Potatohead if his Manus lies don’t get him soon. You can feel the rage from the loons. They aren’t going to go easy on Brian.

  17. I had a friend whose father was always absolutely blotto. Basically spent all his life sitting on the couch drinking and watching pornos.

    I remember wondering what you could do with people who were so far gone. Removing their benefits because they don’t attend appointments or fail to apply for jobs (which they couldn’t hold down for five seconds) doesn’t solve their problems, and just creates more problems for the people living with them.

  18. Zoomster @10:11PM: I’m also interested in the pea and thimble trick with Snowy 2.0; apparently that will only proceed if the Victorian and NSW governments sell their share of the present scheme to the Feds, with the proceeds of the sale to be invested by each State in approved infrastructure projects.

    …in which case NSW and Vic should tell the Feds where they can shove it.

  19. Its interesting to me that they are trying to appear to be even handed on the Brisbane “metro” versus Cross River Rail.

  20. Yes, Socrates, what’s a kicked off the scheme drug positive job seeker (they’re even mentioning hair testing, which for mj is positive for a very long time) likely to do – turn to (more) drugs I’d suggest.

  21. Zoom
    Exactly. Ice addicts are even worse. Frontal lobes are shot, they cannot work. This is why we need more welfare resources to work with vulnerable youth before they get to that point.

  22. Cud
    The Brisbane “Metro” is a souped up bus lane. It will have half the capacity of a proper heavy rail line.

  23. socrates @ #1818 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 10:20 pm

    Never mind the drugtest cost. How much will it cost us in the end if people are booted off welfare, have no job, steal to survive or worse, and wind up going through the criminal justice system? We know how well it works in USA.

    Your mistake is thinking that this is an unintended consequence.

  24. Confessions
    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    But what if the Abbottobads simply continue their slow drip drip of feeding to the media? They’d be mad to do otherwise.

    Turnbull will try to pin the poor polling on Abbott. Abbott has been campaigning against Turnbull for months and has made it clear he intends to continue. There has to be a reasonably high chance the Liberals will dump Abbott unless he desists. The Liberals will have worked out that there is no alternative to Turnbull. From this it must follow they have to make it work. If that means the public defenestration of Abbott, there will be no shortage of volunteers.

  25. The Brisbane “Metro” would have worked better as a light rail with overhead cantenary anyway. I was told the existing busways have provisions to convert them into light rail and could accommodate the turning circles.

  26. The key parts of the article I linked:

    “Jobseekers also have to spend more time looking for work or working for the dole – around 270,000 people aged between 30 and 49 years of age will be forced to spend 50 hours a fortnight. That’s 20 hours more than they do currently.

    Those aged 55 to 59 years old will no longer be able to volunteer to meet their 30 hours of mutual obligation requirements, while there will be some exemptions.

    Jobseekers over 60 and of age pension age will have to do 10 hours of activity in order fulfil that requirement to get their payments, but volunteering is included”

    How are people supposed to be looking for work whilst doing all this WFTD? How is this supposed to lower unemployment? Oh wait, it’s not! It’s about punishing the poor and creating a class of people whos labor can be exploited for less than minimum wage.

    This plus no attempt to solve the housing unaffordability crisis, plus more expensive less accessible tertiary education.

    This is not a labor budget. I’ve never heard such a load of bullcrap.

  27. Zoomster

    No mention of numbers, dates, nuthin with Snowy 2. Just oh, we’ve talked to NSW and Vic. One of those party whistle things that make a noise when you blow them out, then half curl back, all crooked.

  28. Raaraa
    Yes it would have. The boundary between light rail and metros is becoming blurred by larger and larger LRVs. The Brisbane busways are dimensioned to allow conversion to LRT, but in practice I doubt it will ever happen. It would mean closing the facility for at least six months. The impact on city trafffic would be catastrophic.

  29. I might be okay with the drug testing, if some sort of rehabilitation was offered when a positive result is found. Instead victims of substance abuse problems are met with a punishment and further victimisation. It’s really going to be great living with the increase in theft and violent crime that inevitably results from this idiotic policy.

  30. For once the Herald Sun has the coalition pegged. There are some good elements of this budget but also some bad ones that Labor should vote down. Why punish poor people, when they have given up on balancing the budget anyway? And there is a lot missing, especially on housing. Night all.

  31. First Dog on the budget (in text not pics so it’s really Andrew Marlton):
    If you took the Coalition logo off the front of this budget most people (who read it) would say it was a Labor budget. How weird. Perhaps it is just that the 2014-15 budget was so terrible that anything even vaguely centrist looks like a picnic. But it is interesting because it looks like they want to have a go at … governing? No that is ridiculous, but they are up to something.

  32. Malcolm is so universally loved after this budget he would be a fool not to call a general election right away. Bill is reported to have said that he would be wiped out by the PM if an election were held now.

  33. Not that I even knew it existed before it was cancelled by Scotty tonight, in his ‘I’m solving the Housing Affordability Crisis by taking a wet lettuce to Housing Investors move’, the Travel Allowance to go and inspect your Investment Properties, has been taken away by the government.

  34. Socrates, yes I know the Brisbane “metro” is a bit of a toy. That’s why the pretense at even handedness is even more amusing.

  35. The cartoon trend seems to be that Morrison and Turnbull are faking it. Fake Fake Fake. Fake News. Fake Budget.

    Labor has a lot of material to work with here. Good times ahead was right Scotty.

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