Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.
The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:
In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.
The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:
The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.
Infrastructure Partnerships Australia chief executive, Brendan Lyon, slammed the budget as an effective $7.4bn cut to overall infrastructure spending.
Despite many seeing the budget as one that delivered on big infrastructure projects – including inland rail, the western Sydney airport, and Snowy Hydro – Lyon said it was “not an infrastructure budget we were hoping for”.
Tonight’s budget is a cut in real infrastructure funding, not an increase. It means that we’re going to see less infrastructure build over the next four years not more. This is the lowest level that we’ve seen in general government infrastructure funding in the past decade.
don @ #1731 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:08 pm
Irish spell it with an ‘e’ Whiskey.
For a comparison with Tingle’s article in the AFR, the ‘editor’ (I guess Stutchbury).
He isn’t happy.
budget-2017-treasurer-delivers-the-wrong-budget-20170503-gvxuw9
This budget sets up an election in September/October 2018.
Anton,
I know for sure the Queensland government will not be happy with the lack of money for infastructure. Turnbull is on the nose up here as it is and the premier ripped into him only a week ago. This will not help him at all.
Cheers.
I would have loved to be in the room when they finally realised that the expenditure line was never going to meet the revenue one by making cuts. 🙂
Darn
Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:15 pm
Terry McCrann has called the budget a disgrace.
In other words, it’s a budget designed with a view to lifting the Libs polling and thereby nullifying the Lib-Right. It remains to be seen if it will work though disposing of the zombie measures must help.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. #Budget2017
🙂
The first budget after an election is meant to be the one where you get all the nasties out of the way (that was what the 2014 Budget was meant to be, after all). The Budget where you come across all nice and smiley (and neutralise as many of your opponent’s talking points as you can) is meant to be the one six months before the next election.
I also like the way we’ve gone from unremitting gloom over the last six months or so to waking up to a bran new day, where the intractable problems of yesterday have vanished in a puff of pixie dust.
simon aussie katich @ #1566 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:24 pm
Briefly:
Really? Certain sections of the Lib backbench aren’t going to be down with this budget. This potentially sets up an even more aggressive blowback for Turnbull from the Abbott camp.
…there was also a nice bit of compare and contrast – the 7 o’clock ABC news ended with a bunch of fairly pessimistic economic figures, including near recession like dips in retail spending…only to be followed by the unicorns and rainbows of the Budget.
Still, the guys locked out at the local mill, entering their fourth week without a pay packet, will be heartened to know that the 3% increase they’re asking for is exactly what Morrison thinks they should be getting..
Briefly – nobody remembers the zombie measures anyway, methinks. All this budget will do is make the punters more confused.
simon aussie katich @ #1606 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 7:22 pm
Not our fault if you lack the taste buds to appreciate a good shiraz.
Zoomster – This budget will give great heart to all those people who are about to suffer Sunday penalty rate cuts – or maybe not.
ETA: with ice.
If Bolte and 2GBinc hate the budget then it must be good for Australia.
I know now, after listening to bits of the Budget between Masterchef, that Scott Morrison has not given up on becoming Prime Minister just yet.
This was his Billy McMahon, Treasurer, Budget. Auditioning for the next move up the greasy pole of politics when his leader falters or sinks beneath the waves.
McMahon was unable to come up with any bold economic initiatives and let Inflation get out of control.
Morrison also appears to possess an inability to be economically bold and has been unable to come up with any original initiatives, preferring instead to purloin what he has presented tonight from Labor. Scott is letting Debt and the Deficit get out of control.
As far as I can tell from very limited perusal this budget is all gain and no pain for labor and instead of blunting labor attack lines it simply reinforces many. As well, labor gets a extra $6 billion from the bank levy to play with.
Perhaps I am over optimistic though with my enthusiasm but I really think this budget gives Shorten a huge opportunity on Thursday night with the two biggest mistakes the government has made being not keeping the deficit levy and keeping the big business company tax cuts. The fairness argument still belongs to labor.
Cheers.
luckily we only have to borrow 50 billion to give the 50 billion tax cuts. got it at mates rates.
This is clearly an acknowledgement that singing the loonies tunes wasn’t going to work any better for him than it did Abbott.
Abbott is one of the Loonies. He was singing his own tune. Turnbull is doing a John Howard, going for what is achievable.
The 2014 Budget represents what Turnbull and the rest of this Government want. In his interview with Emma Alberici just now, Matthias Cormann virtually admitted it.
zoomster @ #1759 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:36 pm
I was thinking the same.
I half expected Turnbull to jump up and call another election.
It just shows how desperate they are to try and get themselves out of the sh!t.
I bet London to a brick that Turnbull and Morrison lit upon the Bank Levy in short order after they heard that Anna Bligh had been made head of the Banks’ association.
‘That’ll teach those banks for not appointing one of ours to the role!’, they must have thought to themselves.
That’s a victory for Morrison?
Briefly:
This budget sets up an election in September/October 2018
With Tingle (on that facebook link posted earlier) saying with tax cuts before in next year;s budget.
bemused @ #1752 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:27 pm
So do the USians. I can’t help it if the Irish and the US can’t spell.
This budget is Turbull’s ETS 2.0. Credlin on the warpath on Sky.
@SkyNewsAust
Peta Credlin: I don’t think it’s credible for the Coalition to deliver a tax and spend budget. #Budget2017 MORE http://bit.ly/2pppLdC
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/861911195577589761
Apologies, my last comment referred to Ratsak’s @9:25PM.
P1 @9:26PM: Jeezus H Christ! What dies the ‘H’ stand for?
steve777 @ #1778 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:53 pm
It stands for Harold.
If Credlin, Bolte and 2GBinc all think it’s a bad budget then it must be a great budget.
Citizen,
I saw that as well.
Labor joins in hitting the banks, gets $6 billion in revenue to play with by playing bipartiship in the spirit of budget repair and Morrison will have to handle any blow back from the banks increasing rates and charges.
Huge win for Morrison ( sarcasm galore ).
David,
Keep on paddling ( smiley )
Cheers.
Peta Credlin: I don’t think it’s credible for the Coalition to deliver a tax and spend budget. #Budget2017 MORE
——–
I think she has a point there.
Everyone is going to say this is mostly a Labor Budget. So Labor will get any credit.
It will also undermine all the mindless Liberal slogans of the past decade.
Antonbruckner11
Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:38 pm
Briefly – nobody remembers the zombie measures anyway, methinks. All this budget will do is make the punters more confused.
Dumping the Abbott budget is intended to detach Turnbull from Abbott. It will make some sort of difference, especially if Abbott makes a ruckus. Turnbull has to deal with Abbott. If he can do that, then he can mull over how to deal with Labor.
itzadream @ #1775 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:52 pm
Actually, just thinking about it, with the timing of the next election being constrained by the Senate there will probably be only one more Budget before it.
That is unless they have a mini Budget early in 2019.
Tingle closes with this:
“Labor, by comparison, find itself having to find ways of funding its existing promises for extra spending, particularly on education.”
I am not sure where is the problem for Labor.
I guess they assume the full company tax cuts will go ahead.
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/budget-2017-resets-the-debate-about-the-role-of-government-20170503-gvxuqz#ixzz4ga9vVjk0
ItzaDream
Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:52 pm
Briefly:
This budget sets up an election in September/October 2018
With Tingle (on that facebook link posted earlier) saying with tax cuts before in next year’s budget.
An early election is a dead certainty.
How could Turnbull offer tax cuts in next years budget when he is also increasing the Medicare levy to fund the NDIS ? Revenue neutral springs to mind with a resulting hole in the NDIS budget. Or am I missing something ?
Cheers.
Yes but in reality for Turnbull it means a world of whiteanting hurt.
If I’m reading this right….
So.. $300,000 from retirees selling their homes go straight into super? Tax avoidance appeasement from the looks of it.
And 2 strikes and you’re out for missing Centrelink interviews.
Doyley it’s been tough paddling against the torrent since 2013 but that’s life.
With this budget the Libs polling will go
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True Fess but at least call it for what it is. Those folks just want to destroy Turnbull regardless of the cost elsewhere.
The LNP have trashed their attack points. They can no longer point back to the Howard/Costello years of surplus and ideals of low spending/low taxing government when they go in the opposite policy direction.
Still plenty of easy attack ground for Labor. Less take home pay for lower income earners, higher income earners get more, big business tax cuts, etc.
I’m not certain the Gov will get a sugar hit. I think the electorate has tuned out. If the polls don’t move quickly back to the LNP it will be danger time for Malcolm 2.0.
John,
I also find that Tingle thinking a bit strange.
Turnbull has handed labor a extra $6 billion with the bank levy. The top end company tax cuts will not pass this term so I do not see how labor is struggling. As well, labor will have a number of new savings measures ready to go.
Cheers.
If the lessons of budgets in 2014 and 2015 are anything to go by, shit wont hit the fans for a couple months until when the average person sees how it affects them. Ive only glanced casually at the budget so far and cant really see that much to get excited about. There is no real change to negative gearing or CGT. While the levy on bank interloans is good in theory, it will just be passed onto consumers.
9:39PMJOHN LYONS
ANALYSIS, REACTION: In a surprising early victory for Scott Morrison, the ALP tonight said it will support the Treasurer’s new levy on Australia’s largest banks.
If Labor has many more losses of this magnitude they will be in government by Christmas and Shorten will overtake Ming.
Bank levy: tick.
Increase Medicare levy to fund NDIS: tick.
Infrastructure spend: I agree, good debt. Proviso is that it’s more than pork barrelling. Need more info.
Drug tests on welfare recipients- an ideological boondoggle, a waste of money. How about doing something about unemployment.
Housing affordability – as Saul Eastlake said, tax preferred saving in super accounts not as bad as what had been discussed. Plus a few other fiddles at the margins, some of which will do some good but by and large avoid the main problem – negative gearing and CGT discount.
To the extent that it’s a “Labor Budget” as some are claiming, Labor can claim credit in forcing Government to do the right thing.
Confessions
Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 9:37 pm
Briefly:
Really? Certain sections of the Lib backbench aren’t going to be down with this budget. This potentially sets up an even more aggressive blowback for Turnbull from the Abbott camp.
Turnbull will be hoping that Abbott goes totally off the rails. Abbott is despised by swinging voters. If he attacks Turnbull and Morrison over the budget, this can only be a good thing from Turnbull’s perspective. Above all, it will illustrate that Abbott has no power, which is exactly what voters most wanted from Abbott’s removal as PM.
David,
But you do it with great style and class.
Cheers.