Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.
The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:
In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.
The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:
The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.
Lizzie
Thanks, and yes having once had to work under the Howard government, let me just say that stupid decisions should not be assumed to be the product of lack of advice.
As for miners, it is just money. Certainly when I did my undergrad degree it was not love of rocks or learning that motivated some to choose mining. It paid the most by far. That is why I would love to see them taxed more. It is all they care about.
Political Alert @political_alert · 2h2 hours ago
Communications Minister @SenatorFifield will announce major reforms to Australia’s broadcasting industry in Melbourne at 10am #auspol pic.twitter.com/BmEusch3Xr
Socrates
There is also the NIMBY effect, played on by Pollies. The ‘Skyrail’ solution in Melbourne, for instance.
Lizzie
True. But at the moment we actually have politicians pursuing much bigger impacting, less popular, freeway projects, when most surveys show the majority would prefer more spending on public transport. And our land costs have reached the point where freeways are no longer cheaper than rail lines that take up less space. No country in the OECD spends more per capita on freeway construction than Australia – even the USA. It is quite bizarre.
socrates @ #41 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 8:58 am
You must move in fairly rarefied circles. I have a foot in both city and rural living, and I meet people all the time who don’t believe in global warming. And even of those that do, many are so muddled by the misinformation they hear – from both sides of the debate –
that many of those who do believe still think we have decades left before we need to do anything about it.
Labor’s problem with respect to sensible economic, energy and AGW policy. Unions backing Adani because of a pissant $75m offering to Arrium. Don’t these buggers have children?
(Good on Shorten holding the fort so far.)
Google:
nation/shorten-isolated-as-unions-back-adani-loan
Must do a few chores before the PB lunch. Look forward to meeting a few of you then. Have a good day all.
socrates @ #54 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:15 am
Presumably this is to cope with all those electric vehicles that are going to magically appear on our roads – 100% electric by 2030, I believe.
Hilarious.
trog sorrenson @ #59 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:20 am
Yes, actually I did have you in mind, Trog.
zoomster @ #29 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 8:46 am
Surely, Labor’s current policy is to honour the existing agreements. That was one of the main points of Gonski, to give funding certainty into the future.
If the Libs tear up those agreements, then Labor will have to come up with a new response.
WikiLeaks poised to release hacked Marcon documents as his poll numbers rise, mirroring US election
The self-described “transparency site” WikiLeaks is poised to publish “a significant” number of documents relating to Emmanuel Macron, as reports show the French centrist politician pulling ahead in the polls against far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen
The timing mirrors document dumps carried out by WikiLeaks prior to the 2016 presidential election, which contained hacked emails from Hillary Clinton campaign associates. WikiLeaks continued to publish documents even as US officials said there was growing evidence the site was functioning as an arm of the Russian government.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/wikileaks-poised-to-release-hacked-marcon-documents-as-his-poll-numbers-rise-mirroring-us-election/
zoidlord @ #32 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 8:48 am
But our genes, for which our bodies are transitory packages, will still be there.
Phoenix Red,
The self-described “transparency site” WikiLeaks is poised to publish “a significant” number of documents relating to Emmanuel Macron
Sorry, but if you’d read my previous comment you would know that it has already happened:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/massive-email-hack-appears-to-hit-macron-campaign-on-eve-of-french-vote-20170505-gvzhub.html
Re Zoidlord @6:32AM: I think Sydney is colder than what BOM is saying, I can see my breath!
“Sydney” temperatures are measured at Observatory Hill next to the Southern approaches to the Harbour Bridge. On cold, clear nights, it is one of the warmest spots in the Sydney area. This morning it was 12.7 there, which is what most media would have reported. Most suburbs would have been colder, e.g. Olympic Park 10.3, Bankstown 8.0. On Winter mornings, most Sydneysiders except those near the beach experience colder temperatures than the ‘official’ numbers.
‘Not coincidences’: Dem intel member directly connects Page and Flynn to collusion with Russia on election
More and more evidence is stacking up against President Donald Trump’s aides Carter Page, Ret. Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn and others that Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) sees a trend emerging.
As a member of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the CIA Subcommittee, Swalwell has been able to review the classified information about Flynn, Page and the rest of the Russian investigation. He’s certain there was collusion.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/not-coincidences-dem-intel-member-directly-connects-page-and-flynn-to-collusion-with-russia-on-election/
But our genes, for which our bodies are transitory packages, will still be there.
As will our children and grandchildren, the carriers of our genes into the future, and the world they have to inhabit in whatever form it may take as a result of Climate Change.
bk @ #63 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:41 am
And Stephen Hawking will probably still be around!
The question you have to ask is, ‘Why?’ Why did Flynn not stop talking to the Russian Ambassador after he was warned by people from both sides of the aisle in America?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/flynn-was-warned-by-trump-transition-officials-about-contacts-with-russian-ambassador/2017/05/05/b552c832-3192-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html?pushid=590cf9ebfdd5491d00000017&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.51f54339ea18
All Major TV Networks Block Trump’s ‘Fake News’ Ad
The major television networks have all decided not to run Donald Trump’s so-called “fake news” ad, according to a statement released by his daughter-in-law Lara Trump.
Faced with an ad that doesn’t fit their biased narrative, CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC have now all chosen to block our ad. This is an unprecedented act of censorship in America that should concern every freedom-loving citizen.”
http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/donald-trump-fake-news-ad-1202410560/
**I think Sydney is colder than what BOM is saying**
We havent seen temps in the teens here for a couple of weeks. And prossibly wont again till September.
Presumably this is to cope with all those electric vehicles that are going to magically appear on our roads – 100% electric by 2030, I believe
Well before then according to the Cyborg’s way of thinking, and much much more. When the errands, chores, jobs are done (we always said ‘jobs’ – had jobs to do for pocket money etc), here’s 40 minutes on the Future According To Musk – April 28 TED interview. I was transfixed. (And the electric semi-trailer truck looks like it’s right out of Dune.) Speaking about his Gigafactories he needs to build, considering the need for a world-wide distribution network, I wonder if he had/has little Australia in mind, maybe SA, and that was a factor in his battery supply bid, testing the waters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPaYrhUZSYQ
(MOH thinks he’s a Martian.)
don @ #1694 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:31 am
steve777 @ #65 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:44 am
Maybe Malcolm Roberts is right to criticise the BOM, it is obviously pandering to the Elite in their harbour-side mansions when providing current weather information. 🙂
itzadream @ #72 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:51 am
I don’t know about that, but he sure is a fantastic self-promoter. It will be a race between Stephen Hawking’s extinction event, and Elon Musk’s technological nirvana.
At present, I think the odds would be in favor of Hawking.
P1, have you already watched this interview? He doesn’t (here, or anywhere actually) strike me as self-promoting, as much as idea promoting. I find him almost kinda self-effacing.
Okay, so now we know, according to the WashPo story above, that Michael Flynn was warned by members of the Trump Transition team about the Russian Ambassador Kislyak but went ahead with contacting him anyway. So, the next cab off the rank in our question line is, ‘Did Mike Pence know about this and when?’:
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/if-flynn-was-warned-by-trump-campaign-what-did-pence-know-and-when-did-he-know-it/
Good Morning
Fifield presser now. Abolishing license fees.
Norman excelled in one of the most heavily-regulated industries in Christendom which is mostly still controlled by uber wealthy old white males through tightly-held access to hideously expensive golf club memberships.
What a fucking hypocrite.
For those who think the gas suppliers are screaming about having to supply gas to the domestic market because this will cause them to fall short in their export contracts, here is a dose of reality …
(yes, I realize this article is three months old!, so it is no doubt out of date by now).
C@Tmomma
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:45 am
But our genes, for which our bodies are transitory packages, will still be there.
As will our children and grandchildren, the carriers of our genes into the future
Thinking it through, the genes are not “ours”. Rather, we are their logistics outfit.
Har, The Guardian, that wee Yoonionist propaganda sheet pretending to be a serious news outlet:
“Sturgeon hails ‘victory’ despite SNP failure to win overall majorities”
Notice Item 1: Victory is in inverted commas, so not a victory.
Notice Item 2: The Guardian gets to put “Failure” into the heading of the ‘victoy’ that never was.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/nicola-sturgeon-snp-election-results-conservatives-labour
The facts are:
The SNP won a record number of councillors, albiet a small increase of 6 on its record in 2012.
The SNP won 155 seats more than the second highest party (Tories) this is 5 times the 31 margin they won over Labour in 2012.
The SNP increase councils it is largest party in from 9 to 19.
The so called surge of the Tories resulted in them getting 24% of the vote overall!! The unionist vote hardly changed. The Tories are just a consolidating Unionists votes.
As totally expected, The State Broadcaster was even more biased and false in its reporting…. It reported that the SNP had lost 7 seats from 2012. It based this not on the inconvenient facts but on “projections” if the election had been fought on 2012 boundaries.
The Tories won in Scotland in the same way Napoleon won at Waterloo.
itzadream @ #76 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:05 am
I’m watching it now.
Yes, brilliant technique, isn’t it? His intervention in the Australian electricity war was a PR masterstroke – one which he may never be required to deliver (note: I think he could deliver, and he would no doubt be happy to do so even if he ended up losing money – as a PR exercise it would be a great investment)
Actually, the BOM’s temperatures for Sydney probably do accurately reflect what you’d experience in a harbourside mansion. For those who don’t, Olympic Park would be a better guide, although it would be hard to find a ‘typical’ site. Sydney is a city of microclimates, all of them getting warmer. So places where frost was common are now finding frost is rare. That is partly urban development but AGW is playing a big role.
C@Tmomma
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 9:49 am
The question you have to ask is, ‘Why?’ Why did Flynn not stop talking to the Russian Ambassador after he was warned by people from both sides of the aisle in America?
Wasn’t he paid by the Putinistas??
I see that Trump’s ex-bestie is now trolling french social media on behalf of Le Pen. This is the same Putin who has given his active blessing to a decades-long pan-Russian anti-gay pogrom which is reaching a murderous crescendo in Chechnya as we speak.
And where are the Melanchonites on all this?
In exactly the same political brain space as the Naderites, the Sandersons and the Di Natalites.
The War Cry of the Far Left: ‘Somebody Else’s Death before Our Dishonour.’
Keeping siphoning list. Thosye gambling restrictions come into practice with “safe zones”
Dropping commercial license fees seems to be compensation for loss of gambling adverts revenue
Coates has hung on to retain the Presidency of the AOC.
S777
Question:
Are harbour water temperatures (SST or deeper) trending faster than atmospheric temps, the same, or lower in Sydney?
John Coates re-elected as President of the AOC.
don @ #7 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:41 am
I sought an opinion on that last night and got this in reply from CC.
The company concerned is EnviroMission Limited and their website is here: http://www.enviromission.com.au/IRM/content/default.aspx
As I said last night “But PV can’t provide power 24/7. Solar updraft really captured my imagination when I first read about it.”
Swamprat
The between-the-lines message: Brexit is Scotixt and don’t the Sassenachs simply loathe the prospect! They don’t even want to think about it, let alone talk about it. So they lie about it.
Abolishing Keating’s 2 out of 3 rule.
We are going to get less diverse media less local content including news
A shame.
S777
The system needs a clean up and around $300 million less a year.
We have more important priorities than exploiting young people to ruin for vacuous nationalistic posturing and vote buying for meretricious MPs.
Boerwar
Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 10:16 am
The anti-EU “critique” is driven from the Right…by the retro-nationalists, by the meddling Putin…and by the Left…by the retro-trots.
I am not sure rules matter any more in MSM.
The single biggest difference would be public funding of independent quality journalism.
The visceral hatred the Right has for the ABC sort of gives a snifter of how that would go.
BW
More centralisation to save costs. Less jobs and thus less reporting from regional areas. Especially less investigative reporting.
Its going to be wall to wall bread and circus reporting.
Fifield was saying how much Fairfax management was in favour. Given their track record I only see things getting worse.
As for public funding. Yes you are right. Just look at the funding cuts to community t media.
B
I can see where lots of people are coming from.
The grand global economic shift to India and China has lifted around half a billion people out of abject poverty into something like a reasonable standard of living and another half billion out of abject poverty into a more liveable poverty, but poverty still.
All this is at the cost of the hollowing out the wealth of the West’s middle and working classes.
Both the latter are still incomparably wealthy compared to the half a billion people who skirt hunger on a daily basis.
But they are definitely not as wealthy as they were.
And their prospects are poor.
Simultaneously, whether by accident of design or new technology, national control over national affairs is in a long term declining trend.
The shitty thing is that it is the fascist/racists who are most adept at exploiting the Vast Discontentment using the rich human tradition of racist and sectarian scapegoating as their prime vehicle. (The racism is straight down the line. Their economic ‘policies’ are usually an incoherent hodge podge of mercantilism, nationalism, socialism and capitalism.) Golden Ear a-historical lying and nationalistic fervour are frequently harnessed to the same dray of racist vileness.
And the Far Left is in self denial and is complicit in all this.
The risks for democracy are large.
G
I think I understand the dynamics.
I don’t understand how rules can stop the receding MSM tide.