Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Newspoll doesn’t quite replicate the Coalition’s relatively encouraging result a fortnight ago.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian moves a point back to Labor after an outlier result a fortnight ago, leaving its two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down a point and Labor up one, and both One Nation and the Greens are on 10%, with the former steady and the latter up one. Still waiting on approval ratings, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-29 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is steady on approval at 30% and up two on disapproval to 59%; Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 32% and down three on disapproval to 54%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. At least they have some prospect of getting the $8.8 billion back from The Reserve Bank in increased dividends. The company tax cuts will be money gone forever.

  2. GetUp!‏Verified account
    @GetUp

    Matt Canavan says Adani’s coal mine is ‘a win for the environment’… @mattjcan do you understand the meaning of ‘win’ or ‘environment’?

  3. lizzie

    and signed the Commonwealth up to $50-60 billion in long-term spending that will hammer the federal budget for decades to come.

    Straight from the Rodent + Hammock Dweller’s playbook. The Dynamic Duo of structural deficit.

  4. B.C.

    When the need it back to make the budget look better they’ll just take it back from the RBA by asking them to pay large dividend (set by the Dept of Finance).

  5. The Turnbull government launched its Prepare, Train and Hire (PaTH) internship program on Monday despite the legislation for its full implementation being stuck in the Senate.

    Implementing the internships without legislation could cost workers up to $42 a fortnight, because the $200 a fortnight they receive for taking on work placements will count as income that reduces their other social security payments.

    The Coalition has urged Labor, the Greens and One Nation to pass the PaTH bill but says the program will stand on its merits even if the bill is blocked.

    Under the PaTH scheme, first announced in the 2016 budget, the government will pay businesses $1,000 to take on young, unemployed people as interns for up to 12 weeks. The young jobseekers working as interns would receive $200 on top of their fortnightly welfare payments.

    Businesses that employ people full-time at the end of their internships will be eligible for a youth bonus wage subsidy of between $6,500 and $10,000.

    The scheme is opposed by Labor, the Greens and unions, who fear employers will use it to churn through free workers rather than creating real jobs.

    One Nation has also opposed the bill, with senator Malcolm Roberts labelling it “a subsidy to make work, and not a fulfilling job”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/03/jobseekers-to-lose-42-a-fortnight-after-coalition-launches-blocked-internship-program

  6. Heard a bit of Sukkar on the Drive program this afternoon. Apart from being a thoroughly nasty piece of work, is Labor going to continue to let these people call Shorten “a compulsive liar” in every second sentence?
    Talk about projection.
    He went into full frothing mouthed apoplexy when asked about the polls.
    The feed back was not kind.

  7. I hope Labor targets his seat next time around.
    There should be a special effort put in for Chisholm and Deakin, adjacent seats that should be winnable.

  8. Child care duties over for the day – Now watching BBC ‘Hardtalk’.

    Chris Patten (Baron Patten of Barnes, CH, PC), a UK government functionary by any definition, but also smart, is in basic despair about Brexit.

  9. bemused

    I hope Labor targets his seat next time around.

    My order for targeting:

    – Frydenberg;

    – Porter; and

    – Ciobo (however spelled).

  10. Monica I wouldn’t be worried about the coalition calling Bill a liar in every sentence. In my view its effect is minimal if at all. As the latest Newspoll has shown, it hasn’t affected the 2PP and it has had no negative effect on Bill’s net stats or PPM. In fact quite the contrary. Rex please note.

    After a time most voters see this tactic as “he/she would say that”. The other thing is that with the 2PP seeming to be settled at about 53/54-46/47 we might be close to voter turn-off time when no matter what the government does or says it makes next to litte or no difference.

  11. Geeeze Louise the “Australian” bloke on the panel of the Drum is a real pain.
    I must of missed all the other legislation the Fibs passed.
    According to this bloke Trumbles mob is steamrolling all sorts of things through both houses.

  12. We’ll be targeting Porter’s seat allright. I’ve already asked the campaign manager from the successful Swan Hills campaign about it.

  13. CTar1,
    That would be Chris Patten, the architect of Hong Kong’s democratic demise?

    Also, speaking of Brexit and the demise of the UK, I heard on the radio just now in the car that Theresa May wants to turn Britain into a Tax Haven!!!

  14. As I have often said on PB. Most legislation is routine and non-contentious so just sails through unopposed. The number of bills passed does not say much at all.
    What matters is those few bills spanning the ideological fault line.

  15. jeffemu,
    According to this bloke Trumbles mob is steamrolling all sorts of things through both houses.

    Such as? 🙂

    However, as was wryly observed about the things they are getting through, they aren’t exactly the things people want them to be getting about passing.

  16. grimace – Not meaning to be crude but ‘de-nutting’ is a worthwhile enterprise there and with-in existing capabilities.

    Go at it.

  17. A bit unfair to him
    The lease expired. He just managed the consequent transition which could have been mush worse.
    May has been talking about that tax haven idea for some time.

  18. Since its election in 2013, the Coalition has given away $46 billion in political decisions, and signed the Commonwealth up to $50-60 billion in long-term spending that will hammer the federal budget for decades to come.

    This is major league economic illiteracy from Bernard Keane. Talking about the federal government’s fiscal balance as something that can be sick and in need of healing, or broken and in need of repair, is profoundly stupid. He should be focused on output, employment, quality of society, whether people’s desires for paid work are being met. Federal government surpluses do not increase the federal government’s capacity to buy things in its currency, and federal government deficits do not diminish the federal government’s capacity to buy things in its currency.

  19. Bill Shorten has been doing a great job with the town halls and I think the program needs to be extended to every single member of the Labor government, and then the preselected candidates once that process has finished.

    I think one town hall event every two to three weeks for every member would be a formidable campaigning tool all the way to the next election as it will give all Labor members valuable experience selling the Labor message and it will give Labor an opportunity to connect directly with voters, bypassing the nonsense that is peddled by the MSM.

    In addition to direct policy messages, it gives the voting public the impression that Labor is listening to them.

  20. That would be Chris Patten, the architect of Hong Kong’s democratic demise?

    The UK had one hundred years to involve the people of Hong Kong in creating highly participatory democratic institutions but the UK chose not to do that.

  21. Watching the news and feeling very sorry for the unfortunates who have had their homes and/or businesses inundated.
    Many can’t afford flood insurance for the bleeding obvious reason that where they are located floods are inevitable.
    Why are the low lying areas of these towns not evacuated permanently? Far better the Govt help to fund that than the repeated clean ups after each flood.
    I once lived for a few years in a country town near a river. Originally it was closer to the river but apparently the penny dropped after a couple of floods and future building took place on much higher ground, effectively moving the town over time.

  22. poroti

    On Patten, I think he did what was possible in Hong Kong, in what was the equivalent of the withdrawal from Aden.

    Being myself an ex-Home Civil Servant saying something remotely favourable about someone from the FCO is a stretch. 😀

  23. Now, let’s all think about which particular Labor PM passed bucketloads of legislation, some really non contentious such as GONSKI, NBN, CARBON PRICING or the NDIS

  24. It was leased from China and the lease was going to expire. Nothing was going to change that.
    Brush up on your history sunshine.

  25. I think the reply thingy is silly. We should ignore it and treat comments as a linear progression like the old PB.

  26. ABC News just interviewed a barista who has a $1.2 million mortgage. When interest rates head north there’s going to be carnage.

  27. ABC News just interviewed a barista who has a $1.2 million mortgage.

    How is this even possible? I thought after the GFC lenders significantly tightened up their lending practices. Unless the barista draws substantial income from elsewhere, how is s/he servicing the loan on a hospitality award salary?

  28. mikeh:

    The reply function doesn’t even work for me so I don’t use it and just ‘reply’ to other commenters in the normal comment box.

  29. fess
    The sites gone nuts. Testing the reply button I had a dig at bemused some time back and he missed it. If that’s not a bench mark for failure nothing is.

  30. CTar1

    Was that your inner Sir Humphrey showing ? 😆 But srsly how close to reality was Yes Minister and Prime Minister ? You would have “Bernarding” or “Humphreying” back then 🙂

  31. The Sydney Morning Herald
    6 mins ·
    Eric Abetz has slammed the country’s top business leaders over a fresh push on same-sex marriage, saying Australians were “fed up” with political correctness being placed above services.

    Yet the Abbott AND Turnbull govts of which Erica is a vocal member have cut services. So if he’s so concerned about services being cut, why is he attacking businesses rather than advocating in the partyroom for the restoration of programs that his govt has slashed funding to?!

  32. You are aware that ‘Yes Minister’ and ‘Yes Prime Minister’ were based on the diaries of a former cabinet minister Anthony Croslane aren’t you?
    No-one could make that stuff up.

  33. Just a reminder. 4 Corners is going to have WA One Nationers spilling their guts about the Pauline and James show tonight. 🙂

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