Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Newspoll doesn’t quite replicate the Coalition’s relatively encouraging result a fortnight ago.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian moves a point back to Labor after an outlier result a fortnight ago, leaving its two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down a point and Labor up one, and both One Nation and the Greens are on 10%, with the former steady and the latter up one. Still waiting on approval ratings, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-29 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is steady on approval at 30% and up two on disapproval to 59%; Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 32% and down three on disapproval to 54%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I have a genius plan for the Coalition – keep shouting at Shorten in parliament, keep blaming Labor for everything…it’s working really well so far.

  2. zoomster:

    Plus they should keep Abbott, Dutton, Cash and Morrison front and centre. They SO have such appeal with voters!

  3. The polls seem to have settled at around this 53-47 figure. It will ebb and flow a bit as events in politics come and go but unless something dramatic happens it is getting to the stage where it is going to be hard to shift it “bigly”.

    This in a fortnight when “kill bill” was going flat out. Looks like the reported Liberal MP who said we destroy Bill or we destroy Turnbull might be having to have a good look at Option 2.

    Note also that Labor’s vote seems to increase in fortnights when Parliament is sitting and the coalition is “delivering on its agenda”

  4. grimace,

    Don’t try to help – “I’d rather whinge”.

    If this is a shot at me then let me defend myself by saying that since the changes have happened I haven’t been around much owing to work and social commitments. Other than to remark on general frustration, but also that the changes have reduced flame wars and that the electricity wars have died, the latter two I view positively rather than negatively.

  5. The MSM have little bearing on gaining votes for Turnbull,trying to stay relevant is becoming a big problem for them.They are not influencing voters as they used to.

  6. And when advice is offered to ‘clear your cache’, this doesn’t mean anything to me, much less anything specific to me such that I’d know what to do upon being offered such advice.

    Apologies if my questions have caused others to feel frustration.

  7. Well done William keeping the ship afloat in stormy seas. The 2017 Liberal vote in Leg Council dropped from 47.6% to 26.7% (thats 45% of their voters going somewhere else) – Labor and PHON each plus 8% and several smaller parties sharing the rest. National down only about 0.45% – about 10% of their voters.

  8. The primary vote at 36% is still a concern, it looks like the good old days where for a Labor win you had a primary vote of 40% are over for the time being with the rise of the minor party vote. When Labor’s vote now reaches the 40% mark it’s seem to be landslide territory as we saw recent in the WA election.

  9. “A respected Russian newspaper claims it has uncovered evidence that police in the southern Russian republic of Chechnya have rounded up more than 100 men suspected of homosexuality and that at least three have been killed.”
    “In Chechnya, the command was given for a ‘prophylactic sweep’ and it went as far as real murders,” Novaya Gazeta reported.

    The report was denied by the spokesman of the Chechen president, Ramzan Kadyrov, who suggested there were no gay people in the Muslim-majority region.
    If such people existed in Chechnya, law enforcement would not have to worry about them, as their own relatives would have sent them to where they could never return,” Karimov added.”

  10. Like almost everything published in the Guardian about Scotland, this article by a Jenifer Rankin is mostly lieas and nonsense.

    In fact, Spanish ministers have for 5 years (since 2012) said they would not object to Scottish independence as it does not affect them.
    It is another Unionist lie propogated endlessly.

    It makes one wish the armada had succeeded in 1588!! 🙂

  11. @ Confessions

    Whenever you visit a website your device downloads files associated with that site – “cache”. Clearing cache means deleting those files.

  12. Turnbull has now had 10 consecutive Newspolls at netsat -20 or worse. The only PMs to beat this are Gillard (29 in a row) and Keating (17). Howard, Hawke and Abbott never had a string longer than 7 and in Rudd’s case he only got below -20 in his last two polls in 2013.

  13. Hmm. Interesting that, according to the article, Tudge says “Labor would like to … give no opportunity for the government to correct the record.”

    Umm, so why didn’t Brandis “correct the record” and release his diaries? In full? As soon as he was asked?

  14. @Dan Gulberry

    LNP don’t care about breaking the law… They do it all the time.

    If this was Labor however….

  15. Top O’ the Morning Bludgers! 🙂

    Changes in Daylight Saving sent me to bed ‘early’ last night, so it was wonderful to wake up to the news that Labor are heading in the right direction with this Newspoll.

    I thought that maybe, with the last poll as an indicator, and with Turnbull going all bovver boy against Bill Shorten, plus actually getting some things through parliament at last, that the trend might continue in the Coalition’s direction.

    Thankfully, my theory about which side of the see-saw, the Workers who have to look at Pay and Penalty Rate Cuts or Small Business Owners who are looking at a Tax Cut, would hold sway, seems to have gone the way of the Workers. Which it should have, you would have thought, so I’m glad that that’s the way it looks.

    With the disclaimer of, ‘wth would I know?’ 🙂

  16. “Reasonably clear Alan Tudge’s office broke law in Centrelink case.


    Can’t wait to go to the Pre Poll in Gosford today, where I’m handing out HTVs, and walk past the Liberals saying that! 😀

  17. In the SMH today, Massola has an ‘exclusive’, ‘Scott Morrison and Mathias Cormann pressure Labor over tax cuts for business ‘.
    If this is all they can talk about the government is in trouble, and in their words ‘exposes the fact that they have just been playing cynical politics all along with no regard for the jobs and wages that are at stake ‘.
    Of course this is what they were accusing Labor of.

  18. LOCK HIM UP! 2.0

    Words haunt Donald Trump as judge rules he may have incited violence at rally

    Mr Trump and his team will undoubtedly dismiss this latest example as yet another activist judge who is out to get him, but – yet again – they are forced into the position of saying that Mr Trump’s words shouldn’t be taken at face value, or that he didn’t mean what he actually said.

  19. Large slabs of the Australian electorate now hate Malcolm Turnbull because they trusted him and he pissed all over them. He could find a cure for cancer and most wouldn’t give him a second chance. Popularity wise, he’s maxed out.

  20. In the SMH today, Massola has an ‘exclusive’, ‘Scott Morrison and Mathias Cormann pressure Labor over tax cuts for business ‘.

    Because Labor are going to piss the Deficit up against the wall like a drunken sailor on the the SS Howard, just to please the Coalition’s backers?

    I. Don’t. Think. So.

  21. Ross Gittins has definitely left the Coalition tent:

    I realised Australian government was fast approaching peak fake when I read Laura Tingle of the Financial Review’s revelation that Malcolm Turnbull’s Snowy 2.0 announcement was timed to favourably influence the imminent fortnightly Newspoll result.

    When our leaders progress from being mesmerised by opinion polls to trying to game them, that’s when we know the country’s in deep, deep trouble.

  22. These paragraphs from Gittins’ article also reminded me of the other big news of the day that I heard on the radio:

    This explains the difficulty we’re having getting both sides to accept a more disciplined, objective approach to the selection of infrastructure projects.

    Infrastructure isn’t something you use to improve the nation’s productivity – its ability to move people and goods around efficiently; its accumulation of human capital – it’s something you use to buy votes in particular electorates for particular reasons.

    Apparently, Turnbull is pushing to get Infrastructure located in the Prime Minister’s office. Which would take it ‘Off Balance Sheet’ and enable him to control what Infrastructure gets okayed, and where. Which would turn it into the most massive Pork Barrel in the history of the country.

    It just shows how the Newspoll sugar hit of 2 weeks ago via Snowy 2.0 has polluted Turnbull’s thinking.

    He’s got to go. He’s getting dangerous.

  23. Massola must be a favoured journalist on a politicians speed dial as he reports exactly what the government says, and never asks why 3 days in, a government is talking more about the opposition than governing.
    He also says of the government ‘after successfully passing laws that will cut the company tax cut….’
    I wasn’t aware the house of reps had voted on the negotiated package. It will pass but not for 5weeks.

  24. What journalists like Gittins and Massola (and the rest of them) need to get over is the barrier that seems to prevent them from saying Labor’s policies are actually BETTER THAN the coalitions.

    After all, it shouldn’t be difficult. The coalition doesn’t seem to have any real policies, just an intent to pork barrel and give favours to their business mates. Labor actually HAS some policies and generally they are in the right direction, even if some of them are not ideal.

  25. Gittings has three things in his favour:
    He has a brain, he’s not a member of the CPG, and he doesn’t work for the ABC.

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Gittins writes that when our leaders progress from being mesmerised by opinion polls to trying to game them, that’s when we know the country’s in deep, deep trouble. The article is loaded with cynicism.
    And Andrew Leigh says Labor would consider the impact of cuts on Australia’s Triple A credit rating as Scott Morrison recommits to full $48bn tax package.
    Paula Matthewson writes that it’s time for Turnbull and Morrison to either cut through or go home!
    Urban Wronski goes to town on Turnbull’s tax cut, his energy policy and his Treasurer.
    Credit Suisse offices in Europe were raided by local authorities late on Friday as part of a major money laundering and tax evasion investigation. The 346 Australian “names” can’t say they weren’t warned.
    The SMH editorial is a little sceptical about the budget trajectory after the Senate agreement last week.
    Trump’s arrogance and stupidity just keep giving. a judge has ruled against efforts by Mr Trump’s attorneys to throw out a lawsuit accusing him of inciting violence against protesters at a March 2016 campaign rally in Louisville.
    Sarah Gill writes ” The spectacle of an Australian foreign minister stepping up to parrot Duterte’s anti-drug rationale – flawed, as it happens, when you consider that rates of drug addiction in the Philippines are actually around half the global average – is beyond the pale.”
    The latest housing numbers appear to be “bubble numbers”.
    Has Tudge’s office committed a criminal offence by releasing personal details of one welfare recipient’s personal details to a journalist?

  27. Section 2 . . .

    The government has kicked sand in the CFMEU’s face and this is what they’ll get. Google.
    The proposal to sell off the NSW Land Titles Registry looks worse and worse – if that’s possible!
    Here’s Michael West’s take on the matter.
    A senior member of Theresa May’s ruling Conservative Party says the British Prime Minister would go to war with Spain over Gibraltar in the wake of Brexit. Nice.
    After being arrested and charged of assault and theft our mate Meharjer does one step further by assaulting a Channel 7 reporter outside the police station. He’s a classy chap this one.
    Bill O’Reilly – another lovely type. Five women have received payments totalling about $US13 million ($17 million) from either Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox or television host Bill O’Reilly in exchange for agreeing to not sue or talk about their accusations against him, according to a report in The New York Times.
    The government’s key budget initiative to boost infrastructure spending is a dangerous risk to taxpayers and will do nothing to encourage much-needed investment, the body representing Australian largest infrastructure firms has warned. Google.
    The Sean Spicer Show!
    Investigators are paying attention to Trump’s Twitter account, and they are finding behavior that is leading them to the heart of the Russia scandal.
    The new “collaboration economy” is booming.

  28. Section 3 . . .

    Another good article from Greg Jericho says that Sally McManus isn’t being radical when she argues that neoliberalism has run its course, she is merely responding to evidence.
    After Theresa May pulling the Brexit trigger Ukippers, even in their hour of victory, don’t appear to be very happy. They seem baffled and in disarray, even by their own bickering standards.
    One in three Australian businesses are not paying apprentices appropriately. Surprised?
    It’s time some insurers stop putting so much emphasis on Body Mass Index.
    Australia’s “on the go” food culture is growing, with several popular food and drink brands introducing drive-through stores for the convenience of time-poor consumers.
    Poor Erica!
    Some nice reading for the armchair scientists amongst you. The development of the periodic table of elements.

  29. Another thing about Gittins – he keeps repeating the mindless comment that both Labor and the Coalition are offering to throw money at Adani. Labor has specifically said it will NOT do so and the [roject has to find its own finance.

    The lack of curiosity of journalists is most disappointing. They seem to take a whole set of propositions as “givens” and don’t seems to ever check if they are true, of for that matter were ever true.

    The “they’re all the same” and “the coalition are better managers of money” are the most obvious ones but there are heaps of others which relate to individual issues. Often these propositions have originated a some commentator’s throwaway line a long way back along the track that attracted a bit of attention at the time. Facts don’t seem to be a requirement.

  30. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox summarises the Senate company tax negotiation outcome.

    And Cathy has given us a portrait of Mark Latham.

    Daylight saving day at Stonehenge.

    David Rowe is not being very generous to Morrison with this one.

    Mark Knight is unhappy with the latest price increases for private health insurance.
    Jon Kudelka and Turnbull’s search for the “sensible centre”.

  31. What a noice headline from the Daily Telegraph.

    Coalition plummets to dangerous low
    THE Coalition’s support has slipped to another dangerous low amid divisive debate on race-hate laws, the latest Newspoll shows.

    They also had a puff piece on Shorten and his wife. As does The Australian. Has Rupes now put his money on Shorten

    P-plate parent’ Shorten
    She says he was “anxious to be a decent parent” to her children from her first marriage, Georgette and Rupert………………..“I saw him as a father figure with P-plates on at first,” Ms Shorten says in her new book, Take Heart: A Story For Modern Stepfamilies, due for release today.

  32. Good Morning

    A lovely set of numbers to wake up to. 🙂

    I think Tudge is in a world of trouble. So is Turnbull as this will force a resignation and more division will become apparent.

    Its really good to see the polls confirming that the media is losing its ability to con the voters by ignoring the policy discussion and how hopeless this government is.

  33. A new attack that uses terrestrial radio signals to hack a wide range of Smart TVs raises an unsettling prospect—the ability of hackers to take complete control of a large number of sets at once without having physical access to any of them.

    The proof-of-concept exploit uses a low-cost transmitter to embed malicious commands into a rogue TV signal. That signal is then broadcast to nearby devices. It worked against two fully updated TV models made by Samsung. By exploiting two known security flaws in the Web browsers running in the background, the attack was able to gain highly privileged root access to the TVs. By revising the attack to target similar browser bugs found in other sets, the technique would likely work on a much wider range of TVs.

  34. Poroti
    They also had a puff piece on Shorten and his wife. As does The Australian. Has Rupes now put his money on Shorten
    This is real “canary in the coalmine” stuff. Rupert always wants to be on the winning side.

  35. McCain: Nunes ‘killed’ bipartisan Russia investigation

    Nunes (R-Calif.) has been under fire for briefing President Donald Trump on secret information he received from White House officials before informing members of the committee. McCain, who has previously called on Nunes to disclose his sources, called the whole episode “bizarre” on ABC’s “This Week.”
    “If we’re really going to get to the bottom of these things, it’s got to be done in a bipartisan fashion,” McCain said. “And as far as I could tell, Congressman Nunes killed that.”

  36. Watergate’s John Dean: ‘Half the population right now isn’t sure whether Trump is insane’

    The former counsel to President Richard Nixon has lashed out at current President Donald Trump, questioning his sanity and saying he’s “happy every morning when I wake up to see he hasn’t blown up some part of the world.”

    “As I see it, about maybe half the population right now isn’t sure whether he is insane or if he’s just a totally angry man, they don’t know what he’s doing,” Dean explained. “About 40 per cent seem to be happy with him and approve of his job and another maybe 10 per cent are pretty confused or don’t care, so it’s very strange over here now.”

  37. ‘Totally’: Trump says he has a secret plan to ‘solve North Korea’ — without China’s help

    President Donald Trump insisted over the weekend that he did not need China’s help to end the conflict between North and South Korea.

    “China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump explained. “And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”

    “Well, if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will,” the president said. “That is all I am telling you.”

  38. Not to mention the spread about Bill, Chloe and the kids in ‘The Womens Weekly’ (which I bought a copy of). 🙂

  39. Thanks, BK and PR!

    ‘The Madness of King Donald’.

    There’s got to be a scriptwriter on Tin Pan Alley or in Hollywood writing something like that right now.

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