Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Little change from Essential Research this week, as various pollsters drop results on Snowy Hydro, penalty rates, negative gearing, 18C and party leadership.

NOTE: The configuration of comments at the moment is as a result of a glitch which will, I am told, be rectified over the next 24 hours – so hopefully by Wednesday afternoon.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s blowout lead from last week moderating slightly, from 55-45 to 54-46. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 35%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up a point to 10%, One Nation are down two to 8% and the Nick Xenophon Team is up a point to 4%.

The poll also finds 59% approval for the government’s proposal to invest $2 billion in the Snowy Hydro scheme, while its proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act, once explained, draw 45% approval and 34% disapproval. However, another question finds 16% saying racial discrimination laws are too strong, 26% too weak and 40% about right.

Asked to select three from a list of favoured government priorities, health and ensuring big business pays a fair share of tax come out on top, and investment in renewal energy gains six points since the question was last asked in the middle of last year. On the importance of various international relationships, the United Kingdom has gained six points since June last year and Japan five points, both of which reverse earlier downward trends, leaving the UK and the United States at level pegging on top of the table. Only 6% rate that Australia’s relationship with the US is getting better compared with 41% for worse, for reasons I can only speculate about.

Elsewhere:

• Roy Morgan conducted one of its occasional small-sample polls on party leaders, which recorded little change for Malcolm Turnbull since the last such poll in October, with approval down one to 30% and disapproval up one to 54%. However, Bill Shorten recorded particularly weak ratings of 28% approval and 56% disapproval, respectively down three and up seven, while Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister widened from 47-32 to 49-32. Peter Dutton was added as a response option to the question of best person to lead the Coalition, and his 5% appeared to cause Tony Abbott to come down from 14% to 9%. Julie Bishop retained her lead over Malcolm Turnbull, although it narrowed from 34-25 to 30-27. Bill Shorten continues to run third on the Labor question, which has Tanya Plibersek up a point to 26%, Anthony Albanese down five to 19% and Bill Shorten up one to 15%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday two weeks ago from a sample of 534.

• Supplementary questions from yesterday’s Ipsos poll for Fairfax address penalty rates (29% believe the cut will encourage more businesses to open on Sunday, against 63% who do not), negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions (35% believe they should be pared back, 40% do not) and company tax cuts (44% support, 39% oppose). Another tranche of results published today relate to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, finding 78% agreeing with the section’s “offend, insult or humiliate” provision versus 17% opposed, but as there is no allowance for the “intimidate or harass” alternative proposed by the government, I would consider the Essential findings more useful.

• The Australian had a follow-up to last week’s Newspoll finding 59% support for higher penalty rates on Sundays, 29% for reducing them to Saturday levels, and 10% abolishing them altogether.

I remain a week behind the eight-ball on BludgerTrack, and continue to promise that normal service will resume at the end of this week. Let’s see if it actually happens this time. For the time being, here is the result I should have published at the end of last week, inclusive of the Newspoll result and last week’s Essential, but not the latest Ipsos and this week’s Essential.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

854 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 18
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  2. I don’t mind this new ‘backwards’ arrangement for PB. In fact most ‘comment’ sections follow this format, with recent comments immediately following the main article. Th lack of time stamps and navigation facilities are big problems, however, greatly detracting from the useability of the blog. Once a comment disappears off the front page, especially after an hour or so, it’s virtually impossible to find again, like a drawer full of odd socks as someone (Briefly?) said this morning. It would also be nice to have avatars back, but that’s not essential.

  3. Latham describing Howard as George Bush’s lap dog was pretty good.

    I wonder if he would now modify his comments on Bush himself.

  5. **It would also be nice to have avatars back, but that’s not essential.**
    Yes it is. I dont feel whole without my Nanny Plum

  7. 2GB suspected to have taken down Alan Jones’ interview with Ian MacDonald now the later has been convicted.
    Media Watch from 10 years ago repeats Jones’ praise of MacDonald

    [There is one bloke in Macquarie St. who has been working his butt off and doing a damn good job in difficult circumstances, and this is the Primary Industries Minister – Ian Macdonald.

    Now the Minister, Macdonald, is working around the clock to resolve a lot of issues.

    I think you should be running the trains, the desalination plant and everything because you’ve hardly had 2 hours sleep in the last 3 weeks.

    — 2GB, Alan Jones Show ,18th September, 2007]

  10. Apparently Michaela Cash had a good day at the office because she got the idea out there that its ok to restrict the minimum wage because some minimum wage earners live in high wage households.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/it-wasnt-pretty-but-michaelia-cash-got-the-job-done-20170330-gva533.html
    Supposedly “…our image of a minimum-wage worker is not just a battler trying to raise a family on a checkout operator’s pay.”

    I can’t believe Matt Holden got paid to write that rubbish.

  11. This case brings back memories of my own high school years, right down to the accused teacher being a PE teacher.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/student-says-she-lost-her-virginity-to-male-teacher-after-facebook-messages-20170330-gv9rio.html

    Our PE teacher was young, probably late 20s to early 30s. He had peer-like relationships with the cool boys at school, to the point that he’d drive them home from school with them sitting in the tray of his ute.

    There were constant rumours and relatively strong indications he was having sex with girls at school, and one unconfirmed rumour he got a student pregnant. Although she was hit by a car on a pedestrian crossing and died, so if that were true, there was no way we’d know that.

  12. grimace:

    Actually, based on what we see with political reporting, I reckon that author is spot on. Esp this:

    It was a good lesson in politics in the post-truth age: say something that sounds like a statistic, and let people provide their own evidence and draw their own conclusions.

    Liberals in particular excel at this, and most esp because their media cheersquad latch onto the post-truth factoid, and hammer it for all it’s worth. We see this time and time again.

  14. Was the comparison to Forrest Gump on account of the target having a positive and cheerful attitude, or because he had an IQ of 70?

  16. Apparently Michaela Cash had a good day at the office because she got the idea out there that its ok to restrict the minimum wage because some minimum wage earners live in high wage households.

    While people with investment properties would be starving in the streets if we did anything to cut back on negative gearing or the capital gains tax discount.

    Maybe she thinks these people on the minimum wage are the battlers who own investment properties.

  17. Here we go! The Congressional Republicans are now spooked because they think Trump might do a deal with the Democrats on health care without them –

    [U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, the top Republican in Congress, said he does not want President Donald Trump to work with Democrats on new legislation for revamping the country’s health insurance system, commonly called Obamacare.

    In an interview with “CBS This Morning” that will air on Thursday, Ryan said he fears the Republican Party, which failed last week to come together and agree on a healthcare overhaul, is pushing the president to the other side of the aisle so he can make good on campaign promises to redo Obamacare.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-obamacare-idUSKBN17105S

  18. Maybe she thinks these people on the minimum wage are the battlers who own investment properties.

    “Maybe she thinks”

    There is where you went wrong in that sentence. She regurgitates talking points in a shrill and annoying manner, nothing more. She really is an O2 thief, and unfortunately the type species for “blonde jokes”.

  20. jeffemu,
    Not lookin’ good for the Guv-mint in the Senate. That’s good.

    $10, $30 or $50 Million as the cut-off point for the Tax Cuts?

  21. Ryan said he fears the Republican Party, which failed last week to come together and agree on a healthcare overhaul, is pushing the president to the other side of the aisle

    Then Paul Ryan is pretty stupid. Or else disingenuous and manipulative. Trump can’t go to the other side of the aisle, because the other side of the aisle doesn’t have enough votes to pass anything.

    He’s either a sucker, or he’s hoping that some of his fellow Republicans are and will be panicked into changing their vote.

  22. 18c … Cat.
    I am not up to speed on the other matter just yet. I’ve been watching the footy.
    But the pompus George Brandis SC QC is currently rambling as he is drowning.

  23. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, the top Republican in Congress, said he does not want President Donald Trump to work with Democrats on new legislation for revamping the country’s health insurance system, commonly called Obamacare.

    Has there been any indication Trump would even consider this? Ryan sounds spooked to my mind.

  25. The first time I saw or heard of Michaelia Cash was at one of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s stunts. She was gazing adoringly at the Great Man like a lovesick teenager as he bloviated about the ‘carbon tax’ or ‘union thugs’ or whatever. Later, tuning into the Senate while driving home, I heard some demented banshee shrieking about a ‘chalice of blood’ in relation to something that Julia Gillard had allegedly done. It turned out the banshee was Michaelia.

    A loyal footsoldier, like that horse in Animal Farm, maybe she fancies herself in future as Australia’s Maggie Thatcher.

  26. LOL!

    During a late night debate on the government’s plans to water down Australia’s race hate laws, attorney-general George Brandis listed all the times he was “deeply offended and insulted” by other senators calling him white.

    Brandis listed three occasions in the 18C debate when Labor and Greens senators called him a “white man” and part of “a very small group of very privileged, largely older white folk”.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/george-brandis-used-the-18c-debate-to-name-all-the-times?utm_term=.ctWYxb4BQp#.txvBXY18nL

    Brandis in all his humiliating glory can be viewed via the link. Seriously, these privileged white males really don’t like it when their position of dominant privilege is turned against them. 😀

  27. So a multinational makes $500 million profits in Australia. They hide $400 million through accounting tricks and pay 30% company tax on $100 million, i.e. $30 million. So what do we do? Give them a $5 million tax cut. Sure, that’ll creat jobs.

    What a load of crap. Morally, although unfortunately, it’s not practical, we should apply a surcharge to offshore companies, say 20%, until we can sort out the tax avoision issue.

  30. CNN Politics
    30 mins ·
    The warning to Americans from the government is clear: your national defense will be well-funded and your security will be a priority, but for benefits beyond the most basic services, don’t count on me.

    Pretty much the Republican manifesto for decades now. Are people really surprised by this?

  34. LOL!

    Political Alert‏ @political_alert 1m1 minute ago

    “Coalition must take commitment to freedom of speech to the next election”, says @TheIPA #auspol

    Looks like the IPA want the Coalition Party to loose the election!

  35. ABC Great Southern
    5 mins ·
    #BREAKING: After hours of debate, the Senate defeats the Government’s attempt to change the wording of the Racial Discrimination Act.
    The vote was 31 (Labor, Greens, Nick Xenophon and Jacqui Lambie) to 28 (Coalition and One Nation).

    Mal the Magnificent strikes again!

  40. But but but Mark Kenny said earlier Turnbull was getting wins on the board.

    I don’t read Mark Kenny, and hence have no clue what you’re referring to. But the article you linked to which I referenced in my comment made an observation which looked reasonable to me.

  41. @ Confessions

    I can’t access more than about 20 comments, so it’s somewhat difficult for me to get continuity in the discussion. The ark Kenney article was linked to by someone else, it was more CPG Turnbull love in stuff.

  42. I’ve emailed two complaints and one call to Crikey about the problem and got some attitude from the lackey who answered the call for my trouble. I’m most unhappy with the situation.

  46. @ cupidstunt

    Didn’t the L/NP have a debacle on Monday or Tuesday that derailed their week, the clangers are coming so thick and fast I can’t keep up?

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