Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Little change from Essential Research this week, as various pollsters drop results on Snowy Hydro, penalty rates, negative gearing, 18C and party leadership.

NOTE: The configuration of comments at the moment is as a result of a glitch which will, I am told, be rectified over the next 24 hours – so hopefully by Wednesday afternoon.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s blowout lead from last week moderating slightly, from 55-45 to 54-46. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 35%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up a point to 10%, One Nation are down two to 8% and the Nick Xenophon Team is up a point to 4%.

The poll also finds 59% approval for the government’s proposal to invest $2 billion in the Snowy Hydro scheme, while its proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act, once explained, draw 45% approval and 34% disapproval. However, another question finds 16% saying racial discrimination laws are too strong, 26% too weak and 40% about right.

Asked to select three from a list of favoured government priorities, health and ensuring big business pays a fair share of tax come out on top, and investment in renewal energy gains six points since the question was last asked in the middle of last year. On the importance of various international relationships, the United Kingdom has gained six points since June last year and Japan five points, both of which reverse earlier downward trends, leaving the UK and the United States at level pegging on top of the table. Only 6% rate that Australia’s relationship with the US is getting better compared with 41% for worse, for reasons I can only speculate about.

Elsewhere:

• Roy Morgan conducted one of its occasional small-sample polls on party leaders, which recorded little change for Malcolm Turnbull since the last such poll in October, with approval down one to 30% and disapproval up one to 54%. However, Bill Shorten recorded particularly weak ratings of 28% approval and 56% disapproval, respectively down three and up seven, while Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister widened from 47-32 to 49-32. Peter Dutton was added as a response option to the question of best person to lead the Coalition, and his 5% appeared to cause Tony Abbott to come down from 14% to 9%. Julie Bishop retained her lead over Malcolm Turnbull, although it narrowed from 34-25 to 30-27. Bill Shorten continues to run third on the Labor question, which has Tanya Plibersek up a point to 26%, Anthony Albanese down five to 19% and Bill Shorten up one to 15%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday two weeks ago from a sample of 534.

• Supplementary questions from yesterday’s Ipsos poll for Fairfax address penalty rates (29% believe the cut will encourage more businesses to open on Sunday, against 63% who do not), negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions (35% believe they should be pared back, 40% do not) and company tax cuts (44% support, 39% oppose). Another tranche of results published today relate to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, finding 78% agreeing with the section’s “offend, insult or humiliate” provision versus 17% opposed, but as there is no allowance for the “intimidate or harass” alternative proposed by the government, I would consider the Essential findings more useful.

• The Australian had a follow-up to last week’s Newspoll finding 59% support for higher penalty rates on Sundays, 29% for reducing them to Saturday levels, and 10% abolishing them altogether.

I remain a week behind the eight-ball on BludgerTrack, and continue to promise that normal service will resume at the end of this week. Let’s see if it actually happens this time. For the time being, here is the result I should have published at the end of last week, inclusive of the Newspoll result and last week’s Essential, but not the latest Ipsos and this week’s Essential.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

854 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. MTBW:

    Remember none of us are paying for this service.

    There are ads on this site. That is a form of payment. It is how google works, and why it has been so successful. We expect Google to work, even though we know it can only do so because of its business model, for which we do not pay directly.

    There are lots of things we don’t pay for directly that we expect to work.

    When I go downtown, I expect that stores will be clean and tidy, whether I am a patron or not.

    If I go in to a store to ask directions, without intending to buy anything, I expect that staff will be helpful and polite.

    If I go to another town, where I do not pay rates, I expect that there will be street lighting for all, whether I am a rate paying resident or not. When travelling, I expect that the local councils will have parks that all can use, and that the public toilets will be clean and useable and available for all.

    We live in a society. That means something to me.

  5. Scott, Some people might believe you (and others might call you a charlatan):

    Scott Treasurer has promised the 2017 budget will continue the task of positioning the nation for future prosperity, with a mission to support Australians to earn more.

    The treasurer used the last parliamentary question time before budget day on May 9 to spruik the Turnbull government’s achievements in the past year.

    He said the 2016 budget was an economic plan for jobs and growth to support the nation through the substantial changes that are taking place in the country.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/govt-on-mission-to-lift-wages-morrison/news-story/b77cc69c37b544b0bbbde449bc9cd5bb

  7. Skynews throwing barney under a bus to support One Nation:

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust 5m5 minutes ago

    .@fitzhunter: One Nation is leading the charge in the cane fields and @Barnaby_Joyce is in political trouble. MORE http://bit.ly/2odukM2

  8. MTBW

    Lizzie
    So we all sign up to Crikey and there is a glitch in the system and you can’t cope!

    You have a very strange attitude. I’m ‘coping’ perfectly well thank you, but the service is very poor.

  9. I am constantly amazed at the entitlement mentality of some here. They live to whinge about something they have no control over, pay nothing for and have done little to maintain except lodge complaints. Like Don.

    {etc. etc. etc. etc. about all that Don expects from others}…

    We live in a society. That means something to me.

    You expect stores to be clean. They generally are, whether they are aware of your expectations or not, but mostly because there are laws that say they have to be. That’s why you expect them to be clean, not because they owe you anything.

    You expect people to helpful and polite. Most people are, but you’ve got no right to expect that, or to criticise them when they aren’t. Your expectation is purely statistical. Ungrateful sod that you are, I personally wouldn’t give you the time of day. You’re a one-man whinge-a-thon.

    You don’t pay rates? Stop whingeing if there are no street lights. Go somewhere where there are street lights.

    Platitudes about living in a society are no substitute for Don expecting everyone to behave according to his norms.

    If you don’t like Crikey, then don’t put up with it. Don’t “expect” them to cater to your needs . Believe me Don, they don’t need you.

    And as for the “Google” metaphor, please arrange to get a life. Preferably a less self-centered, me-orientated one, with less expectations as to how others, running commercial enterprises, should behave… when you aren’t paying them a cent to do so.

  11. ‘When do we get the page numbers back?’

    You will find the date and time for the restoration of page numbers clearly marked below on page# 1729.

  13. Fawk the ABC is the aural equivalent of The Australian, but shit Turnbull sounding incredibly desperate.
    They can give him five times the airtime but it’s unlikely to be any help.

  16. I think I realise know what the government means when they talk about wage rates.
    The don’t support high wages, just ‘higher’ wages as an abstract term, a bit like peace on earth while backing the US in their latest excursion.
    They don’t ever mean for it to eventuate.
    If fact they believe that wages are currently too high, while at the same time supporting higher wages as an aspiration.

  18. I’d never have guessed at pythons being “loved ones”. 😉

    MFB Commander Bob Lanigan said the couple had enclosures for the pythons but when firefighters arrived they were standing outside with the snakes on their shoulders and in shock.

    “The couple had a good fire escape plan and grabbed their loved ones and left,” Commander Lanigan said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/couple-escape-ringwood-house-fire-with-pet-pythons-wrapped-around-their-shoulders-20170329-gv9lpx.html

  21. The wisdom of Joe Hockey. :sigh:

    Australia’s ambassador to the US, former treasurer Joe Hockey, has praised the Trump administration as a “practical” and “credible” force that is finding its feet 70 days into its four-year term, and called for a halt to “constant” criticism of the White House.

    In his first major speech to an Australian audience since Donald Trump took office, Mr Hockey said the Republican’s rise reflected a citizenry that felt “impotent” and heralded “the arrival of disruption into the mainstream of American politics”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ambassador-joe-hockey-praises-practical-trump-administration-and-warns-against-constant-criticism-20170330-gv9z9s.html

  22. Mark Kenny whinges about those nasty senators who won’t meekly agree to Turnbull’s $50b business tax cut, for which he apparently had a clear mandate at the 2016 election.

    In any case, apparently Turnbull will be a winner (in Kenny’s view) if even a bit of the tax cuts gets through.

    Turnbull has made a virtue of getting things done. Extending promised tax cuts to small incorporated businesses, right up to medium sized ones, would be his biggest win yet.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/company-tax-debate-stalls-senate-oversteps-its-authority-again-20170330-gva7zc.html

    What a useless “analyst” is Kenny.

  23. So, with the current format, are we going to see mastery of the short form insult?
    The short form argument, you know, the one minute one?
    And, BTW, Turnbull looks totally gawn.
    And Trump looks totally stymied.

  24. Don’t be too hard on smokin Joe, he quite rightly tailored his message for his audience…the Sydney Institue a hotbed of incestuous old money

  25. citizen,

    Thanks gif that link to Kenny. Interesting he had the exact figures to hand re how many businesses would benefit etc etc.

    Straight out of the government PR machine.

    Cheers.

  27. lizzie
    That spiel from Hockey is actually quite funny, given his netstat and other poll results, negative, on key indicators.
    Hockey is proving to be as ludicrous an ambassador as he was a treasurer.

  28. MTBW,

    C@tmomma
    PB still mingy and crappy on Thursday afternoon. Boo!
    Remember none of us are paying for this service.

    Actually, I do. By way of my subscription to Crikey, ever since Stephen Mayne and his mate, Christian Kerr, came up with the idea. I used to get complimentary subscriptions as a friend of Christian’s but when he left I started to pay, and have ever since. So it is my money that helps pay for the programmers that Crikey employs to do their site work. Though I am starting to worry that they can only afford to pay peanuts and so have monkeys doing it.

    Therefore, if I wish to comment about the crappy service I am receiving, I can and I will.

  32. I am constantly amazed at the entitlement mentality of some here. They live to whinge about something they have no control over, pay nothing for and have done little to maintain except lodge complaints. Like Don.

    {etc. etc. etc. etc. about all that Don expects from others}…

    We live in a society. That means something to me.

    You expect stores to be clean. They generally are, whether they are aware of your expectations or not, but mostly because there are laws that say they have to be. That’s why you expect them to be clean, not because they owe you anything.

    You expect people to helpful and polite. Most people are, but you’ve got no right to expect that, or to criticise them when they aren’t. Your expectation is purely statistical. Ungrateful sod that you are, I personally wouldn’t give you the time of day. You’re a one-man whinge-a-thon.

    You don’t pay rates? Stop whingeing if there are no street lights. Go somewhere where there are street lights.

    Platitudes about living in a society are no substitute for Don expecting everyone to behave according to his norms.

    If you don’t like Crikey, then don’t put up with it. Don’t “expect” them to cater to your needs . Believe me Don, they don’t need you.

    And as for the “Google” metaphor, please arrange to get a life. Preferably a less self-centered, me-orientated one, with less expectations as to how others, running commercial enterprises, should behave… when you aren’t paying them a cent to do so.

    I really get up your nose, don’t I?

    Must be doing something right!

    I shall do my best to continue.

  33. Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce said he would have preferred it if QSL and Wilmar had worked out a solution themselves.

    ‘They’ve always known we had a code of conduct in the top drawer and we’re going to utilise it,’ he told reporters in Canberra.

    So the obvious question is why did it take Barnaby Joyce so long to reach into the top drawer and get it out!?!

    Is this government so afraid of it’s previous rhetoric demonising ‘regulation’, that it would rather see an industry go to hell in a handbasket before they do something!?!

  34. @ C@tmomma re Crikey’s crappy service. I’m a subscriber too and agree that paid subscribers have the right to complain about the crappy service.

    I’m really unhappy at the moment because I emailed a complain in and got lip service, then when I called today I got attitude from the lackey who answered the phone. Crikey really need to lift their game.

  35. Tom Elliott stated in his editorial today that he is now sure that Bill Shorten will be the next PM. He was scathing regarding Michaelia Cash’s car crash interview with Neil Mitchells” this morning, saying that she was clearly not across the contents of the report she was discussing and that if she is the best person the Liberals can come up with as Employment Minister ‘the Turnbull government is stuffed’ (his words not mine). He went on to say that none of the other Ministers seem to be much good either.

    Given that he is a died in the wool Liberal supporter it does not bode well for Malcolm.

  36. Don
    [—-
    Much bloviating from ‘Bullshit Bill’.
    —
    I really get up your nose, don’t I?

    Must be doing something right!

    I shall do my best to continue.]
    Well said Don!
    Should be well and truly tantrum inducing.

  37. Scott Treasurer has promised the 2017 budget will continue the task of positioning the nation for future prosperity, with a mission to support Australians to earn more.

    Erm, what about the Unemployed Australians who can’t get a job for love or money, nor for want of trying?

    What about the Underemployed Australians who want to work more hours but aren’t being given them by their employer?

    What about the Workers who are being exploited by Labour Hire Firms and are having their pay cut by as much as 40%!?!

    Scott Morrison’s saying it will be so will not make it so. Now will any of his current policies, and if yesterday’s Turnbull Government Submission to the FWC over the Minimum Wage is any guide, I don’t think they’ll be able to come up with any policies to make it happen by the Budget either!

  40. @ Citizen

    In what world is Mal a winner?

    He’s ~8 points down on Bludgertrack, the WA Liberals have just taken one of the biggest hidings in Australian electoral history, the progressive base (ALP, unions, Getup! etc) who have always campaigned better than the conservatives are getting their act together with big data backed field campaigning and Mal has lit several fires under them on issues which are existential to them and they are going to campaign HARD all the way to the next election, he’s had one defection with more threatened, he’s got Toxic Tony throwing bombs at inopportune times, he can’t make more than a couple of days without a clanger, there is a train wreck interview at least every few days and I could go on but you get the point.

    I think someone needs to put in a service call for the water cooler in the CPG.

  42. Michaelia Cash and most of her Liberal colleagues probably believe that the minimum wage should be reduced or abolished. Let ‘the market’ decide, as it does for wheat and iron ore. Some right wing commenators (e.g. have a look at the IPA site) state this openly, but ministers and MPs, who need vites, and those who aspire to those roles can’t. So the alternatives are to lie or waffle. Hence that train wreck of an interview.

  43. Poroti, at meal time – or red wine time – please refrain from using the words ‘fluffer’ and Trump or Hockey in the same sentence. That you managed all three has put me off my Pinot.

  45. SK:

    Hockey’s assessment of Trump’s time in office just reinforces the poor judgement he’s come to be known as having.

  46. Confessions – he lost an unloseable election, destroyed his political career and made a laughing-stock of himself. He’s never recovered from that and never will.

  48. @ Citizen

    In what world is Mal a winner?

    He’s ~8 points down on Bludgertrack, the WA Liberals have just taken one of the biggest hidings in Australian electoral history, the progressive base (ALP, unions, Getup! etc) who have always campaigned better than the conservatives are getting their act together with big data backed field campaigning and Mal has lit several fires under them on issues which are existential to them and they are going to campaign HARD all the way to the next election, he’s had one defection with more threatened, he’s got Toxic Tony throwing bombs at inopportune times, he can’t make more than a couple of days without a clanger, there is a train wreck interview at least every few days and I could go on but you get the point.

    I think someone needs to put in a service call for the water cooler in the CPG.

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