Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a career-threatening result for Malcolm Turnbull three weeks ago, Newspoll records the Coalition bouncing back to near-competitiveness.

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1819. Report from The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. darn @ #178 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    I was just thinking, if this Snowy brain fart of Turnbull turns out to be a potential winner for him (after the feasibility study and so on) why couldn’t Shorten simply ‘me too’ it and make it part of his energy policy.

    There is nothing wrong with the idea in principle – assuming the estimated costs are even approximately correct it is massively more storage and at a cheaper price than batteries can provide – but it only makes sense as part of a larger renewable energy policy.

    So, for Turnbull it is an expensive brain fart that will end up entrenching dirty coal. But for Shorten it would be a cost-effective component of a high-renewables energy mix.

    The problem is that most people won’t be able to see the difference. Even here on PB many are apparently hard pressed to do so. So overall, it will probably have little effect one way or the other.

  2. No, do pay attention. P1 believes in retiring coal-fired power stations in favor of gas, until renewables become feasible at scale.

    Yet again P1 simply asserts this now ridiculously out of date claim without argument or evidence. Without a hint of srlf doubt. The fact that she cannot reflect on the possibility that her now dated ‘references’ are just plain out of date and simply wrong, is quite telling.

  3. It gives me the irrits when someone pulls a policy, or even a remark, from a time when the economy and the politics were quite different, and whines “But you said…” The Coalition delight in throwing these paper darts at Labor.

  4. Is “Blairite” the new word for people who want the party to be back in touch with the working class and actually electable?

    The sooner Corbyn leaves the role the sooner Labour can work at becoming competitive again.

    You don’t need Murdoch to know he is incompetent.

  5. kakuru @ #177 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Guytaur
    “I think Corbyn is done as Labour leader. ”
    The vast majority of the parliamentary party want him gone. They know he’ll lose, and take many (most?) of them down with him. AND they’ll lose their seats.
    It’s the dewy-eyed mass of the party membership that keeps him as leader. They can afford to be blindly idealistic, because it won’t cost them anything.

    So you think party members aren’t interested in winning elections?
    Obviously you are a Green!

  6. Seth

    Blairite refers to the politicians that are still backing the neo liberal view of the world.

    That time has ended. The right and the left have recognised this.

    Its just some of the Parliamentary members still think the pandering to the right instead of being strong on their policies will work.

    Appeasement never works. Progressive parties win most when they stand up for what they believe in and perceived to be doing so.

  7. Australian Labor party ahead in polls, Rex demands new leader.
    British Labour party behind in polls, Rex defends leader.
    Too funny

  8. zoidlord @ #191 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 1:41 pm
    Times change, so does the economy.

    It is very much harder to buy a house or an apartment especially in NSW.

    Agreed. What looked like sensible policy when you had a housing market where supply pretty much matched demand, and an average house price that an average worker could pay off well before retirement is completely different to what is sensible policy when you have both a housing shortage plus a large oversupply of apartments left empty because they are being snapped up by overseas investors, plus a price bubble that means many people will now retire with a mortgage still hanging over their heads, and some could even end up with negative equity in their only significant asset.

    I guess that’s all a bit complex for your average Green, though.

  9. BernardKeane: Shorten asks a question about a man who works at Spotlight. Turnbull starts “If he was working at KFC…”

  10. Socrates in answer to your question at 9:02. The technical answer is none at all. You don’t need any gas fired generators. Not if you have adequate storage.

    Two caveats. While I don’t subscribed to P1s tired assertions, the reality is that we’ll have some gas fired power in the mix for pragmatic and timing reasons.

    What we don’t need is P1s solution where we have some large fraction (maybe more than half – I can’t read her mind) as gas fired power. That just leaves us with more decades of CO2 emmissions or stranded assets.

    Second caveat is that solar thermal with molten salt storage might synergise with not a gas turbine but rather using gas as a backup heat source. In which case its a tiny bit more capital and the emmissions from a few hours gas burning a year (thereabouts) is acceptable. Cheaper than having a full-on gas turbine plant that also has a very low duty cycle.

  11. zoidlord @ #205 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 1:56 pm

    You mean like how they did the ‘study’ for the NBN….

    There’s no ‘study’ required for this. The studies have all been done years ago. That’s just a way of announcing something like this when you haven’t bothered to tell the actual stakeholders yet, and you urgently needed a big flashy announcement to make it look like you were doing something all along.

  12. It’s actually quite interesting how some here are apparently championing team Murdoch/Blair-ites against Labour members.

  13. @Player One,

    Yeah so in other words Mal and his LNP mates not going to do anything about energy crises, just like they haven’t done really done anything about NBN.

    They will just forget about it in a few years.

  14. I disagree with Tony Smith.

    Turnbull had said:

    The Leader of the Opposition has been selling workers down the river for years, trading away penalty rates for years. Taking backhanders, for years and we’re gonna stop it.

    Speaker Tony Smith says he did not think the PM was saying Shorten personally benefited.

    I don’t believe the prime minister suggested that the Leader of the Opposition was literally taking a back hander, I think was the term you’re objecting to.

  15. Today’s QT is so bloody easy for Turnbull. It’s as though someone had already leaked the Oppositions questions to him. He’s under no pressure at all.

  16. Poroti

    I would have thought Tony Blair’s relationship with Rupert Murdoch’s wife might have been more significant…

  17. Al Pal

    Turnbull is winning the Theatre of Parliament. As the LNP have done since Bishop was Speaker. However it does not mean they are winning the voters.

  18. Policy purity is worthless if you lack the power to implement it. Whatever you might think of Tony Blair, he implemented far more of Labour’s agenda than Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock or John Smith ever did, and he’s implemented far more than Jeremy Corbyn every will.
    In a Westminster Parliamentary democracy if you spend your time in opposition then your opponents get to implement their agenda. So, a pure Labour Party helped Thatcher transform the UK, and will help May do the same.

  19. Bemused
    “So you think party members aren’t interested in winning elections?”

    Here’s what I think: UK Labour party members are deluded in thinking that the majority of UK voters will support Labour under Corbyn.

  20. BC

    Talking of pure Labour party is idiocy. The membership decided policies in a vote on the platform. That was after negotiation on policy with all the Labour party.

    What it means is that the majority of the party voted for the platform.
    You know democracy in action.

  21. As far as my limited research reveals, the workforce that built the Snowy Mountains Scheme was unionised.
    Malcolm Turnbull is riding on the achievements of that scheme, on the workforce and therefore the union movement.
    Hypocrite.

  22. B.C.
    “Policy purity is worthless if you lack the power to implement it. ”

    Couldn’t have said it better. This hard fact of politics also eludes the Greens, not just Corbyn Labour.

  23. zoidlord Monday, March 20, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    Yeah so in other words Mal and his LNP mates not going to do anything about energy crises, just like they haven’t done really done anything about NBN.

    They will just forget about it in a few years.

    The problem isn’t that Mal and his LNP mates didn’t do anything about the NBN, it’s that they did a lot, for reasons of short term politics, and totally screwed it up.

    I have yet to see any evidence that things will be different with energy.

  24. Labor is firing shots today simply to see how Turnbull would respond. Overnight labor will massage its attack. No need to worry. Besides QT is only for trahics such as us. As long as penalty rates are kept front and centre it is good for labor. In coming days Turnbull will have to face the possibile reality that his Childcare package is dead unless he cuts away the savings.

    Long and interesting week still ahead.

    Cheers.

  25. Guys, can we move on from the Corbyn thing?

    Maybe Corbyn is unpopular with the electorate because of his personality/policies. Or maybe no politician could be popular when virtually all members of parliament are backstabbing and destabilising him every day.

    There’s no point any of you proposing a hypothesis as to which is the real cause, because no-one will ever have the opportunity to falsify it. Corbyn will not abandon his policies, and the Labor MPs will never stop destabilising their own party.

  26. political_alert: Bob Katter will address the media today on the introduction of his Banking Royal Commission Bill next sitting week, 3:30pm, APH #auspol

  27. When my father came out in 1947, he was sent to work for the SECV (State electric commission). His work supervisor, an Australian, was told by his boss not to worry about the working conditions of the DPs, as they were on short term contracts and would not be with the SEC long.

    His supervisor responded that the DPs were members of the union (AWU) and would work under the same conditions.

  28. doyley @ #239 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 2:34 pm

    Labor is firing shots today simply to see how Turnbull would respond. Overnight labor will massage its attack. No need to worry. Besides QT is only for trahics such as us. As long as penalty rates are kept front and centre it is good for labor. In coming days Turnbull will have to face the possibile reality that his Childcare package is dead unless he cuts away the savings.
    Long and interesting week still ahead.
    Cheers.

    It seems clear that the Govt will rebut Labors penalty rate cut campaign with it’s own attack on Shortens trading away of penalty rates for union kickbacks from companies.
    The dead weight of Shorten strikes again.

  29. Dangerous line – the government are speaking as if the Snowy scheme is already up and running and the problems with electricity supply are fixed. People have low attention spans; give them the impression you’ve solved the problem, and they’ll blame you if it continues.

  30. Its only the start of the week.The usual form is that Turnbull has an optimistic start to the week,then by Friday it all turns to shit.

  31. Guytaur,

    I noticed that. Turnbull is on rinse and repeat with ” Shorten bad unions bad ” his automatic response. Mix things up and he is not so confident.

    Shorten and labor will get their attack right.

    Cheers.

  32. VE
    “Maybe Corbyn is unpopular with the electorate because of his personality/policies. Or maybe no politician could be popular when virtually all members of parliament are backstabbing and destabilising him every day.”

    Corbyn is extremely unpopular. Ergo, his parliamentary colleagues want to get rid of him. This is the simplest explanation for what is happening.

  33. Zoomster

    They hope to blame Labor and renewables for that. Given media coverage I can see why.
    I think though despite that voters are awake to the real facts

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