Today’s West Australian carries results of ReachTEL seat polling conducted for The Parenthood, a parents’ advocacy group, which collectively suggest the Barnett government is in big trouble. Labor is credited with leads in all six seats from an average swing of 13%, which if uniform would net 18 Liberal-held seats along with one from the Nationals (arguably a different proposition), for a total of 41 seats in a chamber of 59. No primary votes are provided, but the two-party preferred numbers are as follows:
Wanneroo: Labor leads 54-46, swing 15.0%, sample 617.
Perth: Labor leads 59-41, swing 11.8%, sample 611.
Mount Lawley: Labor leads 54-46, swing 12.9%, sample 635.
Joondalup: Labor leads 52-48, swing 12.4%, sample 625.
Bicton: Labor leads 51-49, swing 11.0%, sample 611.
Southern River: Labor leads 54-46, swing 14.9%, sample 651.
No field work date is provided, but the report seems to suggest it was conducted this week.
It’s time.
Briefly !!!!
Maybe Now we know why John Howard was visiting liberal seats with 10 per cent plus margins on his trip to WA.
And it’s reported locally that party people say Turnbulls visit on Sunday and Monday was a waste of time, apart from the fact that he hosted a fundraiser widely reported to have cost $10,000 a head to attend.
He could have just written a cheque himself and stayed home.
Still 10 seats to get………..and two weeks to go……………
Any theories about why Labor is doing so well in these polls and not so well in the general reachtel polls?
Outside Left!!!!
This polling is completely consistent with the responses of voters to campaign effort.
It’s also affirmed by the near-total absence of campaigns by the Liberals in seats like Wanneroo and Mt Lawley. The Libs may be doing some direct mail, but in other respects they seem to have written themselves off. Anecdotally, the Lib/ON deal has all-but certainly ensured Labor will win Mt Lawley where the Jewish community is swinging strongly to the excellent Labor candidate, Simon Millman, adding to the pronounced swing already evident in other parts of the seat.
Labor are going to defeat the Liberals and ON at the same time.
As a seat to watch, we should observe Hillarys. A combination of a split in the Liberals and an attractive Labor candidate, Teresa Ritchie, might mean the Liberals lose an otherwise safe seat. That would be a singular delight.
Antonbruckner11
Thursday, February 23, 2017 at 10:13 am
Any theories about why Labor is doing so well in these polls and not so well in the general reachtel polls?
The statewide poll is not plausible …it’s just one datapoint among many…we should recall the MOE and reflect not the effect of sample composition drawn from a large, diverse, very disparate population
Does any one have information about what will happen in South Perth or Victoria Park? I recently spent a week walking from where I was staying in South Perth, to where I was working in Victoria Park. Both electorates looked demographically similar, but apparently South Perth has never been held by Labor, while Victoria Park is safe for Labor.
There also seemed to be a lot of construction in South Perth, so I am curious as to whether that will have an effect.
Looks like the Libs’ “Fortress WA” is about to fall.
While I believe there’ll be some significant swings, looking at past trend, I have found seat polling to be a lot more unreliable compared to entire state polling.
The state polling though may mask big seat swings as a result of averaging.
Briefly
given the machinations of the Christian right in the northern suburbs it would be a delight to see even a close result in Hillarys.
Rossmcg
Thursday, February 23, 2017 at 3:31 pm
Hillarys is well worth watching. There must be a good chance for either Labor or the Independent.
raaraa, these are very big samples for individual electorates. Total them up and you have a pretty good sample, over 3700, from Liberal/National heartland. Unless you are saying that Labor held seats are going to swing the other way, this looks pretty dire for the coalition.
briefly @ #6 Thursday, February 23, 2017 at 10:48 am
I’m campaigning in Swan Hills (held by Libs) and I would agree that the Liberals appear to have written off Swan Hills. All the campaign workers report being their message being well received and the Liberals broken promises on the Ellenbrook railway line has cost them dearly.
FAQUING HELL!
THE LIBERALS MUST BE PACKING THEIR DAQS
I saw Frank Alban (Liberal incumbent Swan Hills) at the other day and from his demeanour it appears that he knows 11th March is the end for his political career. He was with a couple of staff before a campaign event and they came across as just going through the motions. It was a big contrast to Jess Shaw’s demeanour and that of her campaign team.
Leaving aside the small samples and the historical uselessness of seat polling, it’s hard to trust commissioned polls put out by interest groups given they only release the ones that grab headlines.
One lives in hope though!
[Frank Alban ]
Frank was way out of his depth as a local councillor and having delivered almost nothing to the electorate in 8 years and cost it a train service, must be in the running for the least effective local member in WA political history. It is absolutely amazing that the libs preselected him a second and third time. The first time I can understand they didn’t expect to win Swan Hills that election, but Carpenter fixed that for them.
[Leaving aside the small samples and the historical uselessness of seat polling, it’s hard to trust commissioned polls put out by interest groups given they only release the ones that grab headlines. ]
Presumably they were hoping for a result that would show both parties to give them goodies to get their endorsement in these key seats. Given the results it is a little surprising they did release them.
If I was the WA Campaign director, and I don’t even know who is, I’d be wanting the actual numbers to look like this, but the polls to be showing it close so as to keep the workers and the public focused on how important their vote is.
This penalty penalty rates decision will seal the deal for ALP to win WA. Its a pay cut when wages, its the worst time with no compensation.
Its state vs federal, but issues like this are very polarizing, it will motivate the troops on the Left, ALP can make the most of it, and the Libs cant run from it.
@ WPP
I live in Swan Hills, I know what a useless errrr, person, Frank Alban is…
Grimace, I understand now the facial expression which you have adopted as your nome de plume, and you have my deep sympathy.
Mr Alban is a profoundly ineffectual and gutless individual, who lacked the fortitude to attempt to convince his party to make some effort to honour their commitment to his electorate, and who, in the knowledge that his party is totally indifferent to the blatant lies they told to get him elected, refused to fall on his sword.
This election the sword will be thrust deep into the empty space where his gut should have been, by his constituents.
Cutting penalty rates, and I see the West is reporting Colin has promised to follow suit in WA, is a bad decision at a really bad time, McGowan is a really lucky SOB.
Does anyone know what is likely to happen in the new seat of Baldivis?
Given the suburbs geographical location, near Kwinana and Rockingham, I would think a Labor gain.
I saw in today’s West that the Liberal candidate for the seat is involved in an investigation into a real estate company for which he worked, relating to a Ponzi scheme . That might not bode well for the Libs.
fulvio
According to William’s guide above, Baldivis is Labor with an 8 per cent margin.
Reece Whitby should make to parliament at his third attempt
Thanks.
Sorry, Rossmcg, I thought the guide graphic was a header for the article relating to the 6 seats, so I didn’t think to click on it!
Wow, this is a terrible poll for the Liberals, both in WA and nationally. I know some people are questioning the sample size but isn’t MOE at a sample size of 600+ a little over 4%? These swings are all double that or more. PHON have shot themselves in the foot with yet more bizarre candidate selections. Labor’s greatest enemy appears to be complacency or voter apathy. Given the grim state of the WA economy, the latter seems unlikely.
That being said, victory for Labor in WA would not give an easy ride. The economy has tanked, state funds to stimulate activity are blown (mining boom sadly wasted), many people are probably under water in their mortgages and the only federal assistance on offer is aimed at a dubious freeway project that has more to do with helping construction CEOs than WA. Now that Turnbull has gone the full conservative there will be little help on offer for a new Labor government.
“I saw in today’s West that the Liberal candidate for the seat is involved in an investigation into a real estate company for which he worked, relating to a Ponzi scheme . ”
Now that shows initiative! Normally the Libs wait till just after entering oarliament.
[Now that Turnbull has gone the full conservative there will be little help on offer for a new Labor government.]
Turnbull, and frankly Emperor Barnett as well over the last 8 years, will always put himself first, party second and the national good / state good comes in at about 67th / 49th on their lists. I’m not sure however that any weight at all should be given to the rubbish either of them talk during elections they are both just total liars.