Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Little change this week on voting intention this week, but a barrage of negative results for the government on matters related to climate change and renewable energy.

Essential Research, which now comes to us courtesy of The Guardian Australia, records no change this week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 36%, Labor is down a point to 34%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are up a point to 10%.

Also featured this week are a semi-regular question on climate change, which finds 60% saying it is real and attributing it to human activity – up six points since the question was last asked in December, with 25% favouring the normal fluctuation response, down two. A remarkable 65% approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030, with 18% disapproving, and 71% say the federal government is not doing enough to ensure “affordable, reliable and clean energy” (albeit that that’s a few too many positive adjectives for my tastes), with 12% saying it’s doing enough and 3% too much. Only 16% offered that recent blackouts were the result of too much renewable energy, with 45% instead blaming failures of the energy market and 19% opting for privatisation. Nonetheless, a solid 31% offered support for building new coal-fired power stations, with 45% opposed.

Other findings: 29% approve of the Liberal-One Nation preference deal in Western Australia, with 38% disapproving; and 82% support penalty rates, with only 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,397 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Grimace, if you are still around.
    Why did the shoppies agree with Coles to cut penalty rates for a higher hourly rate, knowing full well coles would alter the roster so previous penalty workers would be rostered monday – friday, thus losing $ out of their wage.
    Coles gamed the shoppies superbly if you ask me.

  2. Grimace

    The Liberals’ idea of campaiging is to invite Malcolm to visit, charge 20 people $10k a head to meet him, put him on the plane as early as possible the next day and then slag off at him after he has gone.

    There was a report today that emergency services minister Joe Francis, who holds the seat of Jandakot with an 18 per cent margin, has been told to stay home and start campaigning.

    That would explain john Howard’s visit there the other week.

    If seats like Jandakot are in play the Libs are in more trouble than Burke and Wills,

  3. tpof @ #2347 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 9:00 pm

    henry @ #2322 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    Been nearly ten years since Oz last won a test in India (let alone a series).
    That changes tonight.
    Go you good things.
    India have totally screwed themselves with their use of DRS. Lost their two reviews in 6 overs this innings.
    No doubt an ICC conspiracy.

    They also screwed themselves with an over-doctored pitch.

    Green top for next test? Maybe Starc would get more than 2 overs in the 2nd innings then.

  4. I believe John Smith has a wife and kids as much as I believe he has a bank manager who will lend him money if he phones her at 2am.

    Sad, sad, sad.

  9. Michael Photios resigns as the leader of NSW Liberal’s dominant left faction

    At a meeting on Saturday afternoon Mr Photios surprised factional colleagues by resigning his post as chairman of the board of the party’s most dominant faction, the moderates also known as the left, Liberal sources confirmed.

    The move also comes as the role of lobbyists within the party has come under increasing scrutiny, particularly Mr Photios and his firm, Premier State, which enjoys large, $20,000-plus monthly retainers from major corporate clients including Telstra, the Hotels Association and The Star casino.

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott told the ABC last year that lobbyists had too much control.

    “If you are making money out of the people whose preselections you control or influence, there is obviously a potential for corruption,” Mr Abbott said

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/michael-photios-resigns-as-the-leader-of-nsw-liberals-dominant-left-faction-20170225-gulctv.html

  10. henry @ #2116 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 3:15 pm

    grimace @ #2031 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    The SDA have copped a lot of flack recently for the positions they’ve taken on penalty rates and I’d like to defend them.
    In the interests of disclosure I was an SDA shop steward for a couple of years while I was at uni, I’ve dealt with the MUA, AMOU, AIMPE, CFMEU, AWU, AMWU and ETU as a manager, and; I’m a Labor party member.
    When you criticise the efforts of the SDA around the enterprise bargaining deals that they have done, you are overlooking the very weak bargaining position that they are in. Much of their membership base is young, transient and looks at the job they are in as being relatively short term. On the basis of that they then have to go and negotiate a wage deal with some of Australia’s biggest and most powerful companies.
    The reality that we need to realise and defend is that in the circumstances the SDA face they have done well to achieve what they have. Under the the legislative, business and negotiating framework they face they are mostly in a position where they are limiting losses rather than shoring up a position or making gains.
    The first union I ever dealt with from a management point of view was the MUA. There was not one person in the management group or head office that was in any doubt whatsoever that the MUA were every bit as militant and tough as they thought they were. Whenever the MUA officials came in for a discussion they were negotiating with 100% confidence they were backed by a workforce who would take whatever industrial action was deemed necessary by the official to get what they wanted.
    SDA officials on the other hand go into meetings with management knowing that there are basically no consequences for the management if the SDA official doesn’t get what they want.
    I know which official I’d rather be, and which union is gets better results.

    Very insightful post grimace, interesting.
    It was the SDA that negotiated away penalty rates for a higher hourly rate with Coles recently wasn’t it? That struck me as poor negotiating as the end result was what i thought was always going to happen. Coles in many cases switched those workers on penalty rosters (ie Sat/Sun) to monday – friday with a higher base hourly rate but no penalty rate and thus a lower total take home pay.

    I don’t know about Coles other than what I’ve read in the media, I do know about Red Rooster in the late 90’s where they traded off penalty rates and I was working for $4.73 per hour (I was 15) on any day of the week starting as early as 8:30am and finishing as late as 10:30pm. During the changeover to GST I worked until 2:30am checking menu boards and the till system for erros.

  13. Dave – Does this mean that the left faction of the liberal party in NSW actually has a board of directors? Jesus. And as if it will make any difference. Photios will still pull the strings.

  18. Annabelle Crabbe is not held in high regard by many posters here, but this is a good article:

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/generation-y-must-be-close-to-revolution-20170224-gukink.html

    I don’t know why they aren’t coming after us with pitchforks.

    Maybe this comment by ‘Truffles McLobster’ has hit on the reason, as well as a key plank in the strategy of Big Money and their political wing, a.k.a. the “Liberal” party:

    “Debt keeps people scared, compliant and conservative. Can’t risk a day off, can’t risk losing your job, cant stand up for yourself, can’t fight back against obvious injustice, can’t extend a bit of empathy and stand up for others.”

  19. Steve777

    “Debt keeps people scared, compliant and conservative. Can’t risk a day off, can’t risk losing your job, cant stand up for yourself, can’t fight back against obvious injustice, can’t extend a bit of empathy and stand up for others.”

    Alan Greenspan, Ayn Rand fanboi and US Federal Reserve Chairman let the cat out of the bag years ago with his “traumatised workers”

    Greenspan explained his monetary strategy in similar, but less eloquent, terms, bluntly noting the state of what he called the “traumatized worker.” He was not referring to the traumatization of the unemployed workers, but rather that of the employed workers who dreaded the possibility of unemployment. Traumatization refers to a condition that causes people to suffer serious disorders—the kind with potentially grave consequences. The association of post-traumatic stress disorder and the threat of unemployment might seem farfetched, if the source were someone less eminent than Alan Greenspan.

    As Robert Woodward reported, Greenspan saw the traumatized worker as “someone who felt job insecurity in the changing economy and so was resigned to accepting smaller wage increases. He had talked with business leaders who said their workers were not agitating and were fearful that their skills might not be marketable if they were forced to change jobs.

    https://monthlyreview.org/2012/04/01/sado-monetarism/
    A lot of truth in this

    Alan Greenspan’s traumatised worker is today’s Trump supporter. After being traumatised for 25 years, wanting change isn’t irrational.

    Remember, Alan Greenspan was a member of Ayn Rand’s collective. To understand this is to understand why we are doomed with the Federal Reserve. Peter Fonda

    https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/p/peterfonda336341.html

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-10/democrats-trump-and-ongoing-dangerous-refusal-learn-lesson-brexit

  21. Ides of March

    James Comey FBI obtained Fisa warrants in mid October in order to in effectively gather intelligence on Trump and his aides on the suspicion they are agents and assets of foreign power ie Russia

  22. Ides of March

    Do you mean Mensch rather than Menaue?
    If so. Louise Mensch was former UK tory MP, who went onto work for Murdoch press. She is now investigating the Trump imbroglio in her own capacity

  23. Good evening Bludgers,
    Does anyone know which government Minister is on Insiders tomorrow? I am making the standard assumption that it will be a Minister. 😉

  24. Ides:

    The FBI obtained warrants to essentially investigate the then Team Campaign Trump for collusion with the Russian govt. All roads to Russia via Trump appear to lead to them and what US authorities will do with what they find.

    I do not know of this Menaue person.

  26. Michael Photios resigns as the leader of NSW Liberal’s dominant left faction

    I don’t think any “Liberal” would consider themselves “left”. They have a right faction and a far right faction.

  29. Vic and Fess:

    Thank you. Im guessing then we are waiting for more info on the warrants and what else Louise Mensch can find? On that point, what has she found?

  31. Ides:

    We’ve discussed this here a few weeks ago. My view is that this is going to be a slow burn rather than a quick fix. Authorities are going to want to be seen to be totally above board on this, esp given Team Trump is doing its damndest to whiteant the establishment, incl media in its early tenure. You can imagine in this kind of environment that authorities will want to tread carefully.

    Also, not holding a lot of faith in congress GOPers either. So we will see where this ends.

  32. I don’t think any “Liberal” would consider themselves “left”. They have a right faction and a far right faction.

    Photios represented the moderate wing of the Liberal party. If he is stepping down then it’s obviously another ‘jump to the right’ when it comes to the Libs.

  35. Holy left arm spinners batman!

    One day I will have time to collate the combined bowling average of all left arm spinners in India. But for now, I think the jury has delivered its verdict and Shane Warne hasnt got a clue.

  36. Political journalists get a rough time on this blog, but they just did a an excellent job in Victoria uncovering the 2 crooks in the Vic ALP, namely the speaker and deputy speaker who abused their parliamentary entitlements to the tune of 40k and 113k.
    All started with the treasurer Tim Pallas and the plans for a new youth detention centre to be built in his working class electorate whilst he actually lives in more fashionable Williamstown.
    Investigative journalism at its best as us poor taxpayers would have been none the wiser. The Andrews govt was certainly not going to tell us.

  37. I am extremely happy! As a mad cricket tragic, I feel very god after we thrashed India at home. Not counting any chooks but will enjoy the excitement.

    And did the Tahs win as well!

    Almost makes me forget there are Turnbulls and Trumps in the high seats.

  39. And when the same journalists engage in the same sort of vigour in investigating George Brandis’ activities in respect of the Bell Group, Abbott’s education rorts and Turnbull’s Cayman Islands activities, I might find myself agreeing with you.

  41. I think the jury has delivered its verdict and Shane Warne hasnt got a clue.

    When he played well, played brilliantly he was Grand.

    But…..

    Just forget about him and his mouth and ‘everything else’- he has done SFA still he ‘retired’.

  42. Jen, the ‘Tahs are the lover that you KNOW will let you down. Dont let them excite you Jen. Dont let them do that to you again. They are not worth it. Walk away Jen, walk away and dont look back!

  43. ShaMe Warne was a drug cheat. He only served half the minimum term for taking supposedly one tablet of his supposed mothers stash. The Australian Cricket bord should hang their heads in shame. His entire record should be expunged from the books. Rant over.

    Good to see we have a spinner in the team though, as a good spinner makes for interesting cricket.

    Tom.

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