Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Little change this week on voting intention this week, but a barrage of negative results for the government on matters related to climate change and renewable energy.

Essential Research, which now comes to us courtesy of The Guardian Australia, records no change this week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 36%, Labor is down a point to 34%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are up a point to 10%.

Also featured this week are a semi-regular question on climate change, which finds 60% saying it is real and attributing it to human activity – up six points since the question was last asked in December, with 25% favouring the normal fluctuation response, down two. A remarkable 65% approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030, with 18% disapproving, and 71% say the federal government is not doing enough to ensure “affordable, reliable and clean energy” (albeit that that’s a few too many positive adjectives for my tastes), with 12% saying it’s doing enough and 3% too much. Only 16% offered that recent blackouts were the result of too much renewable energy, with 45% instead blaming failures of the energy market and 19% opting for privatisation. Nonetheless, a solid 31% offered support for building new coal-fired power stations, with 45% opposed.

Other findings: 29% approve of the Liberal-One Nation preference deal in Western Australia, with 38% disapproving; and 82% support penalty rates, with only 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,397 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. On kids being driven to school, my local high school has a car park just for kids. I have been in this area for 25 years, always been a few cars in the car park. However, because of a change in school starting age way back when, from 2016 most year 12s turn 18 in that year. So during that year the car park began regularly filling up, with some of the students having to park in the streets. This year the car park has been doubled in size and still fills up.
    Interestingly, last year there was a ute belonging to a local business (name all over it) parked there regularly. Bet the vehicle was claimed as a work vehicle for tax purposes.
    Those students would definitely have been old enough to walk themselves or use public transport.
    Times have changed from my day.

  2. BK

    May I just say porto portas portat portamus portatis portantōand Je m’appelle Jean Cluny, et toi, comment t’appelle tu. The first things I learnt in high school for Latin and French and whatever else I forgot they have stuck.

  3. Kezza2
    Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 6:44 pm
    John Smith

    “I own a 3 year old child ”
    …”No you don’t, you don’t own children, you are a parent”…
    It lives, because I feed it.
    Today, the child’s 8 year old brother complained because it didn’t particularly like the prawn and papradelle in white wine mornay I served him for lunch.
    So I dragged the little bastard outside, by the scruff of the neck, and and made him watch Youtube footage of starving children in South Sudan, and dead babies in Syria.
    And you wanna know what he did?
    Well, he cried, obviously, then went into his bedroom and got the $6.55 he had pinched out of my wallet and instructed me to give it to the DADDY OF THE STARVING CHILDREN SO THAT THEY MIGHT EAT…
    So, “Kezza2” you can literally go and get fecked.
    I own the child, and it will grow up to vote for Whitlam, Hawke or Keating…
    And he/they will be able to smell the stench of a fake, a mile off…

  4. Kudos to Victoria Labor for Speaker and Deputy Speaker resignations. Yes, they did the wrong thing but their behaviour was not endorsed. Compare and contrast with the other side of politics.
    Meanwhile, in remote NW WA the weather is fine and hot. The road to the coast is no longer flooded. Our small town was “blessed” with a visit from the local ON candidate (Pilbara Division) who came to see the one known supporter in town to line him up for handing out How to Votes on polling day. To his credit he came on a Saturday, had a few drinks in the one pub in town and answered enough questions to show how ignorant he was.
    Meanwhile high profile Brendon Grylls came on a weekday and only wanted to see the white business owners.
    I have no idea how the WA election will pan out, but the town booth generally favours Labour. 🙂

  5. Vic:

    I heard Nance square the circle on Wikileaks – Russian hacks – Republicans when he was on Maher’s show last week. But what I’m hearing now is a whole new level of WTF?!

  6. Did someone say Newspoll tomorrow?

    I recall in a report on ABC Newsradio this morning on Abbott’s latest antics. It referred to Newspoll pollsters being ‘in the field’, with the poll to be published Monday.

  7. Kezza2
    Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 7:31 pm
    John Smith

    …”Faaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrkkkkkkkkk. You need help,and quickly.
    Not least because I think you are already dead”…

    You are a despicable, low, incarnation of humanity.
    Possibly I do need help,…
    Probably, I get it from a devoted wife, to whom I am also.
    A loving mother, three father’s, three little boys, a brother and sister who have and will, go to the ends of the Earth for me, as I will for them, and an existance YOU couldn’t even dream of.
    Your children might mourn you, but they will get over it.
    Mine, will never recover from the loss of me.
    You are a lesser form of life.

  8. Been nearly ten years since Oz last won a test in India (let alone a series).
    That changes tonight.
    Go you good things.
    India have totally screwed themselves with their use of DRS. Lost their two reviews in 6 overs this innings.
    No doubt an ICC conspiracy.

  9. ‘Mercan’s spooks on the march ?

    5 Top Russian Diplomats Die In 3 Months–Plus Putin’s Chauffeur Died In Freak Car Wreck In September–and Former CIA Acting Director Mike Morell Told Charlie Rose He Would Assassinate Russians “To Make Them Pay A Price”

    Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s UN ambassador since 2006, died unexpectedly at age 64 in the consulate, two days ago. And while it was said initially that Churkin died of a heart attack, that is not the case, according to his autopsy.

    He is the fifth Russian diplomat to die unexpectedly in 3 months. Turkish ambassador Karlov was shot at an art exhibition in December, Soviet Foreign Ministry officer Polshikov was shot in his Moscow apartment in December, Indian ambassador Kadakin died “from illness” in January, and Greek consul Malanin’s death in January is unexplained.

    Putin’s chauffeur is the sixth politically important Russian to die recently and suspiciously.

  10. John Smith

    Youur children might mourn you, but they will get over it.
    Mine, will never recover from the loss of me.
    You are a lesser form of life

    Kezza is right….you need to seek help.

  11. Martha Farquahar
    Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 8:06 pm
    …”John Smith
    Kezza is right….you need to seek help”…

    Kezza is NEVER right about ANYTHING.

  12. John Smith

    Kezza is NEVER right about ANYTHING.

    You should reflect on your interactions here when you are feeling calmer. I think you will realise that you need help.

  13. India copped three dodgy decisions after they wasted their 2 reviews within the first 6 overs (on dismissals where they were plumb LBW). They would have been reversed if they had any reviews left. They seem to have this attitude that they are never out LB, especially in India.

  14. For those who are interested in the WA election and the Labor ground campaign, I got an email from Labor claiming to have knocked on 107,767 doors and made 282,303 phone calls.

  15. simon katich @ #1999 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 11:34 am
    The only way forward I thought worthy of consideration was reducing Sunday rates and increase Saturday rates to the same rate, simplifying the system. But Grimace assures me that having the two rates isnt a significant burden on business owners.

    All basic bookkeeping packages (MYOB, Quickbooks/Rekon, Xero etc) include a payroll module as a standard part of their offering, you just need to set it up properly , and as these products are targeted at small business people the software vendors go out of their way to make it easy to setup your payroll.

  16. henry @ #2322 Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    Been nearly ten years since Oz last won a test in India (let alone a series).
    That changes tonight.
    Go you good things.
    India have totally screwed themselves with their use of DRS. Lost their two reviews in 6 overs this innings.
    No doubt an ICC conspiracy.

    They also screwed themselves with an over-doctored pitch.

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