BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

One Nation and the Greens’ paths cross in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 11
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  1. So ‘Power Rangers’ over.

    Bathurst 24 Hour Race on … is there anything unique about Porsche’s doing u-turns into immovable objects when pressed to hard?

  3. Briefly @ 2.11pm,
    That’s a nice story about the Afghan refugee.However you have to balance it against stories about Sudanese refugees in Victoria. 🙂

    Which is not to say that those who are not refugees do not also commit crimes, just that a balanced perspective is best if you want to divine the public’s perspective in general.

  5. c@tmomma @ #250 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 2:44 pm

    Bemused,
    Even under Obama the US wanted Australia and other nations to join them in ‘Freedom of Navigation’ exercises.
    Yes, I am aware of this, however the distinction now is that Trump may attempt to coerce Australia into carrying out a Freedom of Navigation exercise in the South China Sea in exchange for the Refugee Deal being fulfilled. Or the other mooted suggestion of sending boots on the ground into Trump’s first military adventure.
    Also, I think I’ll give ‘Sink the Bismark’ a miss because, as I said, I’m not really interested in that sort of stuff! 😀

    What a pity! Stirring stuff. Royal Navy, stiff upper lip and all that. Only lacked rum. buggery and the lash.
    More seriously though, a good movie.

  6. poroti , I saw a U.S sailor get thrown through a plate glass window pretty near to the ‘Sail and Anchor” It was the only way to shut him up. The U.S.S Tarawa was in port that day. One of it’s harrier’s was called the ‘enola gay” Yank’s are oblivious to points of view.

  7. boomy1 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 2:40 pm
    . Oh how they were loud , talk about throwing a spanner in the works, these guys were so up themselves I was glad to be Australian. So. I get Trump, I know where the dickheads are coming from.

    ***************************************************
    Boomy – I lived in the US for quite a spell – and I found as *individuals* the Americans were warm, friendly and lovely people – and even more so when they found out I was an Aussie. I’ll never forget one guy – a WW2 ex-marine who cried his eyes out to me when he found out I was an Aussie – about when he got his life saved in Australia after being badly wounded in the Pacific – he could not thank me enough …..

    but collectively – especially overseas then : six dominant stereotypes about Americans were constructed in the 1820s and 1830s. They have persisted ever since. These were: that American manners were extremely deficient; that Americans were often anti-intellectual, uncultured, and ignorant; that Americans lived ultimately bland lives; that Americans were particularly prone to boasting and annoying patriotism; that Americans were money obsessed and financially untrustworthy; and finally that Americans were hypocrites.

    And Trump is EVERY ONE of these !!!!!

    ( However Boomy – I know a lot of places think of some Aussie holidayers in the same way you mentioned about the US sailors !!!!! – loud, obnoxious and disrespectful of local manners and customs )

  9. CNN Politics
    2 mins ·
    The rapid halting of President Donald J. Trump’s immigration order has given him his first exposure to the limits on his presidential power.

    Love it. CNN is saying Trump got ‘checked and balanced’. 😆

  10. As I have mentioned before the Oscar Wilde quote about America :

    America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between.

  12. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 5h5 hours ago

    “Clean coal” is a cynical lie that does not fool energy companies, banks or investors, just the dumb right.

  13. PhoenixRED
    On my first visit to the US in 1976, I was paying for some clothing for my sons in Miami. The woman behind the counter was clearly intrigued by my accent and asked where I came from. When I told her Australia, she replied (imagine best Southern draw) Oh, did you drive over?
    She was surprised to learn it is about 10,000 k over the sea from their west coast!
    I’ve met all sorts of Americans, over time. They’re probably as diverse a country as Oz.

  15. The Age ‏@theage 5m5 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE: The Turnbull government is examining how to curtail the funding growth of “over-funded” private schools.

  16. ML, I knew an ex U-boat captain, said the film was very realistic. The longer German version is better than the dubbed short version IMO.
    He was a very lucky man, left his boat twice, once for the birth of one of his children, and once for training. Both times the boat was lost with all hands.
    He said that radar was their undoing. Said they were completely unaware of it’s ability, and thought that enemy sailors had just got better/luckier at spotting them.
    A German friend of mine had an uncle who was also a U-boat skipper, managed to survive the war, but committed suicide a few years after.
    I’ve been on the boat used in the filming, would have been hell.

  17. Zoidlord

    The Age ‏@theage 5m5 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE: The Turnbull government is examining how to curtail the funding growth of “over-funded” private schools.

    They will solve the “over-funded” problem in no time. Change the definition of “over funded” . On a serious note, did not the LNP go full “Class War” feral when Labor suggested there might just be some”over-funded” ?

  18. poroti @ #267 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    Zoidlord

    The Age ‏@theage 5m5 minutes ago
    EXCLUSIVE: The Turnbull government is examining how to curtail the funding growth of “over-funded” private schools.

    They will solve the “over-funded” problem in no time. Change the definition of “over funded” . On a serious note, did not the LNP go full “Class War” feral when Labor suggested there might just be some”over-funded” ?

    Just ask Mark Latham. The “Hit List”.

  19. Monica Lynagh Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 3:17 pm
    PhoenixRED
    On my first visit to the US in 1976, I was paying for some clothing for my sons in Miami. The woman behind the counter was clearly intrigued by my accent and asked where I came from. When I told her Australia, she replied (imagine best Southern draw) Oh, did you drive over?
    She was surprised to learn it is about 10,000 k over the sea from their west coast!
    I’ve met all sorts of Americans, over time. They’re probably as diverse a country as Oz.

    ******************************************
    Monica – I often had the same reaction and I well remember a program on TV about how 50% of Americans could not point out where they actually lived on a map of the US ….. and they say Americans have to have a war every 10 years just so that they actually find out there were more countries/non-Americans in the world.

    When I first got to the US and met some Internet friends I had made – they asked to see where my khaki shorts and shirts were ????? …… I said what are you talking about ????? and they kept raving about ‘the crocodile man’ …… I didn’t know who it was for days till one day they had the TV on and said *him* ……. I saw this guy spouting, bonzer, crikey ….blah blah blah – Steve Irwin, of course – I died of embarrassment of how ‘over the top’ he was – they thought this was how ALL Australia was – they even believed my stories there- after of how I rode a kangaroo to work and used a boomerang to catch my dinner …..

  20. CNN have definitely made a conscious decision to “Foxify” themselves and become the major media antagonist of the President. I’m not saying it’s right; not saying it’s not cynical. They probably believe they’re channelling the spirit of Morrow in taking down this modern-day McCarthy. I have a pool going on the first CNN commentator to ask “have you no decency sir?”

  21. vogon poet @ #266 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 3:22 pm

    ML, I knew an ex U-boat captain, said the film was very realistic. The longer German version is better than the dubbed short version IMO.
    He was a very lucky man, left his boat twice, once for the birth of one of his children, and once for training. Both times the boat was lost with all hands.
    He said that radar was their undoing. Said they were completely unaware of it’s ability, and thought that enemy sailors had just got better/luckier at spotting them.
    A German friend of mine had an uncle who was also a U-boat skipper, managed to survive the war, but committed suicide a few years after.
    I’ve been on the boat used in the filming, would have been hell.

    The closure of the ‘Mid-Atlantic Gap’ was a key factor too.
    From Wikipedia.

    The Mid-Atlantic Gap is a geographical term attributed to an undefended area beyond the reach of land-based RAF Coastal Command antisubmarine (A/S) aircraft during the Battle of the Atlantic in the Second World War. It is frequently known as The Black Pit, as well as the Atlantic Gap, Air Gap, Greenland Gap, or just “the Gap”. This resulted in heavy merchant shipping losses to U-boats. The gap was eventually closed in May 1943, as growing numbers of VLR Liberators (Very Long Range models) and escort carriers became available, and as basing problems were addressed.

  22. Re Citizen @2:12 Pm: Is there any Turnbull government disaster that isn’t “Labor’s fault”?

    Only the bad stuff. For that, anything and everything that’s happened, especially in the 3.5 years they’ve been out of power, is Labor’s fault.

  23. Vogon Poet
    I think it was the longer German version I saw – great stories. How did you manage to get onto the boat used in the film?
    The closest I’ve come to anything like that was a week aboard the Golden Plover, a hundred foot barquetine. The ship used in the Nicole Kidman film career launch, Dead Calm.
    You can bring that ship to a dead halt when it’s under sail which you need to do if someone goes overboard.

  24. Bemused

    Saw a doco on the U=Boat war and another earlier factor was the Seppos initially telling the Poms “we don’t need no goddamned convoy system” . The U Boat chaps called it their “Happy Time”.

  27. PhoenixRED
    There’s a lot of fun to be had feeding geography and information poor folk outlandish stories. I even managed to sell the crows flying backwards line a few times, and then you can also scare them witless with the truth about spiders, snakes and deadly jellyfish.

  31. Vogon Poet Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 3:22 pm

    ML, I knew an ex U-boat captain, said the film was very realistic. The longer German version is better than the dubbed short version IMO.

    *****************************************
    In a similar theme – though not as realistic and a bit more Hollywoodised I enjoyed and can recommend an American film with Robert Mitchum and Curt Jurgens on a destroyer/submarine battle – “The Enemy Below” …..

    AND the Cold War US ship – Russian submarine classic – with Sydney Poitier/Richard Widmark – “The Bedford Incident” – where a intense US skipper tries to force a Russian submarine to surface

  34. Phoenix RED
    Yep, seen both of those.
    On the maritime theme, did you see Master and Commander? Opinion?
    I actually thought it better than I was anticipating.

  35. PhoenixRED

    Dealing with local inhabitants of foreign countries re’ Australia:

    At one point while I was working in the UK, Perth was the place in Australia to visit and I used to be rained on with questions about Perth.

    I endlessly explained that the most of Perth I’d seen was the airport.

    They thought that everyone here would be slipping over to Perth for the weekend.

    Explaining to them that the distance Sydney to Perth is around the same as London to Tel Aviv slowed them down a bit.

  36. Bemused
    “I think you are referring to the ‘second’.”
    .
    Pedant 🙂 I looked up your links and one of the links in your links was to one of the U-boat commanders at the start of the campaign. He is still alive aged 103 !!

    On 23 December 1941, U-123 left for the first phase of Operation Drumbeat

    “Hardegen was ordered to penetrate the inshore areas around New York City, however due to the need for strict operational secrecy for this task, no mapping of the area was issued from stores in Lorient, and Hardegen had only large nautical charts as well as a Knaur pocket atlas (of his own), for navigation”……The crew of U-123 were elated when they came within the sight of the city itself, all lights burning brightly, but Hardegen did not linger long, due to the lack of merchant traffic. He did sink the British tanker Coimbra (6,768 GRT) on his way out..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinhard_Hardegen

  37. CTaR1
    ‘Explaining to them that the distance Sydney to Perth is around the same as London to Tel Aviv slowed them down a bit.’
    And that it ain’t just all geographical distance in either case.

  38. CTar1

    Years back during one of the major bush fires 2006 (?) it was put in to perspective. The fires were spread across the equivalent of London to Moscow !!

  40. I went out with the daughter of a chap who was on Doenitz’ staff.
    It was a strictly Don’t Mention the War sort of thing.

  41. poroti @ #286 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:12 pm

    Bemused
    “I think you are referring to the ‘second’.”
    .
    Pedant 🙂 I looked up your links and one of the links in your links was to one of the U-boat commanders at the start of the campaign. He is still alive aged 103 !!

    On 23 December 1941, U-123 left for the first phase of Operation Drumbeat
    “Hardegen was ordered to penetrate the inshore areas around New York City, however due to the need for strict operational secrecy for this task, no mapping of the area was issued from stores in Lorient, and Hardegen had only large nautical charts as well as a Knaur pocket atlas (of his own), for navigation”……The crew of U-123 were elated when they came within the sight of the city itself, all lights burning brightly, but Hardegen did not linger long, due to the lack of merchant traffic. He did sink the British tanker Coimbra (6,768 GRT) on his way out..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinhard_Hardegen

    I had heard the term used before in a different context to what you referred to so got curious and looked it up.
    PB stimulates me to look up many things and expand my knowledge. For at least as long as it takes me to forget things again. 😛

  43. Monica Lynagh Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:06 pm
    Phoenix RED
    Yep, seen both of those.
    On the maritime theme, did you see Master and Commander? Opinion?
    I actually thought it better than I was anticipating.

    ***********************************************
    Yes – am a big Russell Crowe fan …… never seen a bad movie of his !!!!!

    I’ll tell you a funny story – years back my then African American G/F was staying with me on vacation at Woolloomooloo ( I live in Vic ) and one day we were walking towards the famous “Harry’s Café De Wheels” when up rode on a bicycle was one Russell Crowe ( who actually had an apartment on the wharf then ) ….. I waved to him and he pulled up beside us – I said ” Hi Russel how you going ?” …… he looked at me and winked – Ms LA just about passed out …. he made out I was a long lost friend, “Great to see you again, mate” and she was totally blown away that I knew Russell – made me take lots of pics with her/us with Russell …… made a part of my life I’ll never forget …

  44. PR/ML
    IMO Patrick O’Brien is the best historical novelist of them all.
    The film got the Patrick O’Brien bit reasonably right and the special effects for the storm and battle scenes were sensational.

  45. Kyle Griffin ‏@kylegriffin1 42m42 minutes ago

    Trump: I’ve had a long day. I’m tired & cranky & feel like I could just freak out on somebody.
    Bannon: Then maybe you should call Australia.

  46. Bw

    And that it ain’t just all geographical distance in either case.

    I doubt any Australian managed London to Tel Aviv in a kombi and cracking the Nullarbor mindset equally difficult!

    You’re truly a bloody cynic. 😀

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