BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

One Nation and the Greens’ paths cross in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef 54s55 seconds ago

    A reminder of how Laurie Oakes opened his 2014 post-budget interview with Joe Hockey…

  2. The Americans tempting fate ?
    “U.S. sends Navy destroyer to patrol off Yemen amid Iran tensions: officials
    USS Cole……….”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-yemen-idUSKBN15I25F

    “USS Cole bombing
    12 October 2000, while it was being refueled in Yemen’s Aden harbor. Seventeen American sailors were killed and 39 injured…..The terrorist organization al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

  3. ctar1 @ #289 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    KJ
    What is this ‘fencez’ bit?
    Fence .. OK –
    French = barrière
    Spanish = valla
    Zulu = kocingo
    (I recommend the Zulu.)

    Dang me podnah ❗ If I could have found a Zulu this morning I would have employed him to assist with the one fence panel we raised a couple of inches. (We – Abbee and Me).
    We have the ARC weld type fence. The bottom becomes overgrown with grass (the fence bottom – not my or Abbee’s bottom). Long term project for me. I will be able to tell this story to death and forstall questions about the manly 🙂 (I worked as a cleaner for quite a while) persuit of vacuuming and cleaning.
    I appreciate your language advice, I’m not sure I can use all of your terms in one sentence.
    While working this morning a gentleman walked past, earphones in place, stopped and returned to inform me that he had been bitten by a dog and asked what should he do.
    Being on my very best behaviour, I told him that if he was really worried about it he should present at the nearby Mater Emergency Department.
    We then inspected the wound. One little puncture. I applied “Betadine” and gave him a couple of “Band Aids” and told him that an infection would show reddish around the tiny wound.
    Now, zir, I challenge you to a duel. I am prepared to kocingo with you at dawn on the 11th – full moon. :big kiss smilie: (◐.̃◐)

  4. CTar1 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:11 pm
    PhoenixRED

    Dealing with local inhabitants of foreign countries re’ Australia:

    Explaining to them that the distance Sydney to Perth is around the same as London to Tel Aviv slowed them down a bit.

    ******************************************

    Reminds me of the tall tale :

    A Texan is visiting Australia and feeling thirsty, he stops at a house along the road. “Can you give me a drink?” asks the Texan

    “Of course,” says the Aussie , and he invited the Texan to come in.

    “What do you do?” asks the Texan.

    “I raise chicken” says the Aussie.

    “Really?” says the Texan. “I’m also a farmer. How much land do you have?”

    “Well, out front it’s 50 meters, as you can see, and in the back we have close to 100 meters of property. What about your place?”

    “Well,” says the Texan, “on my ranch, taking to his usual everything is bigger in Texas boasting, I have breakfast and get into the car, and I drive and drive and I don’t reach the end of the ranch until dinnertime.”

    “Really,” replies the Aussie. “I once had a car like that too.”

  5. ML, can’t remember how I got to see it, my brother lived in Germany for 20 odd years and on a visit he took me there, maybe a movie museum ? Pretty sure there is another one in Hamburg.
    I’ve read all 20.5 books in the Patrick O’Brian series, the movie wasn’t too bad but as usual in comparison to the books, the details are lacking. Rusty wasn’t too bad, but Paul Bettany was too good looking, and lacking the “junkie” look.

  6. Poroti

    Years back during one of the major bush fires 2006 (?) it was put in to perspective. The fires were spread across the equivalent of London to Moscow !!

    That certainly puts it into perspective for me. I hadn’t thought of it that way.

  7. Lizzie

    It scared the crap out of a UK guy who flew in for our company. He thought the whole country must have been ablaze and he had been sent into an inferno 🙂

  8. boerwar @ #294 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    PR/ML
    IMO Patrick O’Brien is the best historical novelist of them all.
    The film got the Patrick O’Brien bit reasonably right and the special effects for the storm and battle scenes were sensational.

    Yep. I am a great Fan of the Aubrey–Maturin series and have all them as audiobooks. They are loosely based on the exploits of Thomas Cochrane and some other RN Captains.

    O’Brian died in 2000 while still writing the final unfinished voyage Of Jack Aubrey Book 21.

    I recall part of a review of the series where the reviewer said how much he envivied those who hadn’t yet read the books – for the delights they would get from doing so.

  9. Nine Network’s Political Editor Laurie Oakes has spoken exclusively to Mr Turnbull, and it doesn’t take long for the infamous chat with the US President to come up.

    “I want to say welcome Prime Minister Trumble,” Mr Oakes says in his opening greeting.

    Mr Turnbull offers a strained chuckle in return.

    The jab comes after White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer referred to Australia’s PM as Mr Trumble, not once but on two separate occasions.

    Mr Oakes goes on to quiz how the relationship between the two long-standing allies will move forward, bringing particular focus on any requests for Australia to provide troops.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/02/05/15/50/pm-malcolm-turnbull-addresses-trump-phone-call-in-60-minutes-interview-with-laurie-oakes#WetaOj8gOUercAqJ.99

    I’m surprised he’d bother responding to Comical Ali’s cluelessness. Is the really that thin-skinned that he thinks ‘Mr Trumble’ is a slight against him rather than what it really is: a reveal of how totally amateurish the Trump Administration is? Chalk and cheese from the Obama years.

  10. Boerwar Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 4:55 pm
    Spicer missed the obvious.
    It should have been Prime Minister Tumbril.

    ***************************************

    Through all the permutations of our PM’s name will we get to the most correct :

    Prime Minister TumDILL

  11. Neil deGrasse Tyson ‏@neiltyson Jan 30

    Seems the World goes batshit crazy, every few decades. Just long enough to forget the last time the World went batshit crazy.

  12. Bradd Jaffy ‏@BraddJaffy 13h13 hours ago

    White House just put out a recap of Trump’s calls w/foreign leaders—including the “President of Australia”

    (Australia has a prime minister)

  13. ‘Australia sucks, prepare to go to war’: Alec Baldwin returns to SNL as Trump botching world leader calls

    On this week’s Saturday Night Live cold open, Alec Baldwin returned as a hapless Pres. Donald Trump speaking to world leaders by phone.

    The sketch touched on the “Bowling Green Massacre” gaffe, the proposed border wall with Mexico and featured Kate McKinnon as German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    Steve Bannon appeared as the Grim Reaper and when Trump said he was tired and irritable and felt like he might freak out on someone, Bannon suggested, “Maybe you should call Australia.”

    Trump got into a heated discussion with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

    “America first, Australia sucks, your reef is failing, prepare to go to war,” he said before hanging up.

    “That was bad, wasn’t it?” Trump asked.

    “No, that went just according to plan,” Bannon replied.

    See Video

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/australia-sucks-prepare-to-go-to-war-alec-baldwin-returns-to-snl-as-trump-botching-world-leader-calls/

  14. The next time (probably tomorrow) that the coalition tries to blame Labor® for something the ALP should respond:
    “well why don’t you resign and allow a party that can fix things govern?”

  15. Jesse Johnson ‏@jljzen 3h3 hours ago

    Top Trump adviser Bolton backs U.S. forces in Taiwan, says move could lessen Okinawa burden

  16. Cassi ‏@Cassi_in_au 59m59 minutes ago

    First Trumble, now President of Australia… collective IQ of the White House must’ve broken through the glass floor we didnt think existed

  17. ‘Unprecedented and unpresidential’: CNN security expert blasts Trump’s defense of Putin

    CNN National Security correspondent and veteran journalist Jim Sciutto was taken aback by Pres. Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bill O’Reilly that the U.S. is no more “innocent” of political dirty tricks than Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin.

    “The word ‘unprecedented’ has been overused,” Sciutto said to anchor Poppy Harlow by phone. “But this is unprecedented by a U.S. president speaking about his own country, that kind of moral relativism. Not just with a U.S. adversary but an authoritarian state that is well-known and documented for enormous examples of mistreatment.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/unprecedented-and-unpresidential-cnn-security-expert-blasts-trumps-defense-of-putin/

  18. Boerwar,
    On historical novelists, I’ll see your Patrick O”Brien and raise you Gore Vidal on his US foundation series, also Colleen McCullock on Rome.
    Vogon Poet,
    You lucky bastard
    PhoenixRed,
    Great story!

  19. The greatness of ‘Russ’ and ‘Master and Commander’ passed me by.

    Watched once on CD and binned. But then, I’m no doubt, a Philistine (not hostile but simply not appreciating trendy stuff).

  20. PhoenixRED

    Jim Sciutto was taken aback by Pres. Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bill O’Reilly that the U.S. is no more “innocent” of political dirty tricks than Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin..

    OMG Trump actually says something based on reality.

  21. Decidedly warm in Sydney again today, reaching 42.3 at Sydney Olympic Park (which would be represenative of what most Sydneysiders would have experenced today – most of us don’t live near the beach or the Harbour).

  22. monica lynagh @ #329 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    Boerwar,
    On historical novelists, I’ll see your Patrick O”Brien and raise you Gore Vidal on his US foundation series, also Colleen McCullock on Rome.
    Vogon Poet,
    You lucky bastard
    PhoenixRed,
    Great story!

    Different era but if you like historical novels one of the best is Sharon Penman’s Sunne in Splendour. Her Welsh series starting with Here be Dragons is also excellent.

  23. [Poroti
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 5:22 pm
    PhoenixRED
    Jim Sciutto was taken aback by Pres. Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bill O’Reilly that the U.S. is no more “innocent” of political dirty tricks than Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin..
    OMG Trump actually says something based on reality.]

    Trump was obviously referring to dirty tricks by the Democrats (like rigging the election). The Republicans would never resort to such underhand tactics.

  24. poroti Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 5:22 pm

    PhoenixRED

    “Jim Sciutto was taken aback by Pres. Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bill O’Reilly that the U.S. is no more “innocent” of political dirty tricks than Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin..”

    OMG Trump actually says something based on reality

    ****************************************
    Yes Poroti – Americans can’t handle THE TRUTH !!!!

  25. monica lynagh @ #329 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    Boerwar,
    On historical novelists, I’ll see your Patrick O”Brien and raise you Gore Vidal on his US foundation series, also Colleen McCullock on Rome.
    Vogon Poet,
    You lucky bastard
    PhoenixRed,
    Great story!

    I didn’t like the “Rome” stories. Countless others have a different opinion.
    I will be working my way through Patrick O’Brian‘s books commencing just as soon as I pick up my dropped Telstra bundle on Tuesday.
    Currently investigating Gore Vidal series.
    Thank you to all who mentioned these wonderful writers. (>‿◠)✌
    ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇

  26. Tying in the U-boats and Patrick O’Brian, Lord Cochrane was nicknamed le loup des mers (“the sea wolf”) by Napoleon.
    As to the historical accuracy, I’ve a bound set of early Sydney Gazettes, and checked out the maritime notices section on the dates that Capt. Jack Aubrey “visited” Sydney , sure enough, Cochrane had at the same time.

  27. poroti Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 5:22 pm
    PhoenixRED

    “Jim Sciutto was taken aback by Pres. Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bill O’Reilly that the U.S. is no more “innocent” of political dirty tricks than Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin..”

    OMG Trump actually says something based on reality.

    *********************************
    Get a copy of William Blums :

    Killing Hope – U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II

    If you flip over the rock of American foreign policy of the past century, this is what crawls out… invasions … bombings … overthrowing governments … occupations … suppressing movements for social change … assassinating political leaders … perverting elections … manipulating labor unions … manufacturing “news” … death squads … torture … biological warfare … depleted uranium … drug trafficking … mercenaries …

    It’s not a pretty picture. It’s enough to give imperialism a bad name.

    As I say – Americans can’t handle THE TRUTH !

  28. Thanks, Laughtong, made a note.
    Gore Vidal also did a cracker called Creation, story of the Greek/Persian wars, told from the Persian perspective, encompasses the central character meeting Confucius among other historical figures.

  29. ML
    I will acknowledge that O’Brien pushes my particular personal buttons.
    I am currently working through Georgette Heyer’s books. I studied US history and politics at Uni and Vidal is de rigeur, IMO.
    One of the things that constantly intrigues with Austen, Heyer, O’Brien, Forrester is that they each partially describe the Britain that triggered the start of Oz.

  30. VP
    I have O’Brien’s biography in Dutch (for the nonce). What is clear both from his novels and the biography was that he was excellent on historical detail.

  31. To avoid accusations of discrimination, can you make that a general edict?

    Can all posters please not leave 17 successive comments that do nothing more than paste things from Twitter that involve no input from the poster and don’t in any way engage with the broader discussion.

  32. At least one of the talking book readers for some of the O’Brien series is a superb reader. Unfortunately I have forgotten his name.
    I think the name was Irish.

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