BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 3m3 minutes ago

    Sydney mum takes on Catholic Church in unfair dismissal case. Raises questions about 457 visa priests.

  2. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 1m1 minute ago

    Seller Martin Corkery explains Sussan Ley’s spontaneous Gold Coast property buy.Oh yeah.Pull the other one!

  3. Zoomster:

    Perhaps staffers do make a difference. But I think McGowan could take more of a personal interest in her electorate, esp when constituents approach her directly. Does she not want to get re-elected?

  4. Everyone is forgiven except Peter Slipper, who offered to pay money back but was refused. I’m still angry about his treatment, dragging him to breakdown, and he was an excellent Speaker.

  5. fess

    Always very hard to approach an MP directly; it’s usually filtered by staffers. Good MPs have systems in place so that staffers know what should be referred on to them.

  6. Name the time and place you met these “patients” at the Gold Coast, the patients you claim patient confidentiality for, even though you did not meet with them in your professional capacity and did not treat them.

    Name the Government officials and Agency who introduced them to you, and reveal the documents (redacted if necessary) which constitute the invitation for you to meet with them. Name the driver who drove you from (presumably) the airport to those meetings. Name any independent witness (other than your partner) who can confirm these meetings occurred.

    Then maybe, just maybe, we will believe you. But only after investigation of the authenticity of this information.

    Or is it just common practice for Liberal Party Ministers to simply fly to where ever they wish to go and contrive to see some constituent so they can justify their travel?

    Or, worse, did you just make this shit up?

  7. I’m happy to concede that Russia, the USA, Australia, the UK and pretty much everyone else primarily act in their own National self interest and security.

    The global order is all about power balances, and usually hard power balances whatever the window dressing of international treaties and conventions might say.

    But in that light I think it pays all of us to be very wary of whatever leads us down the path of military intervention as the primary means of readjusting the power balance of the world, and that is what I see Russia doing. (And yes I have been red-in-the-face-shouty angry at US policy in the Middle East since 2003 for exactly the same reasons.)

    We get urged all the time by a certain section of commenters to be very cynical and skeptical of everything the USA does – and, believe it or not, I am because I would be a fool to ignore the catastrophic foolhardy evil shit that the US has perpetrated on various South American countries, not to mention the Vietnam war and now the Middle East … I’m not a dewy-eyed apologist for the USA by any means.

    But I can’t see how anyone can go from reasonable sensible cynicism/skepticism of the USA’s profound role in the fuck-up that is geopolitics today, to making any excuses for the awful, cynical, and yes evil, things that Putin and the Russian thugocracy are perpetrating on the bits of the world that they can apply power to.

  8. daretotread @ #4687 Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    Well fingers crossed my problem may be solved
    it hit serious scare stage
    Got a voice over claiming to be Microsoft and that they would be closing my computer down if I did not contact them. assumed it was that pay up now scam but could not contact the number anyway.
    Decided to close the PC. Deleted/uninstalled things recently installed and fingers are crossed.

    This thing can pop up anytime. From dodgy web sites.
    You should immediately do the CTL ALT DEL thing and open task manager and then forcible ends all browsers.
    There is a lot on the net about this scam.
    I think windows defender handles it for you.
    Pain in the butt.
    I hope you are on the right track.
    Hard to help over a distance.
    Good luck. I am lucky, in that I have always used dodgy sites for various reasons and have become expert at reloading my computer/s. Sometimes I lose email but generally all works out well.
    If you need installation disks for various programs – I may be able to help you.
    Windows 10 a specialty
    Keep us informed please. At least presently nobody has you in their gun sights. 🙂

  9. Lizzie:

    And Slipper’s amount was a pittance compared with others. Very unfair and unjust in my view, the way he was treated.

  10. c@tmomma @ #4665 Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 5:06 pm

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    3 mins ·
    Embattled Health Minister Sussan Ley has admitted she made an “error of judgment” by charging taxpayers for a trip to the Gold Coast in which she bought a $795,000 apartment, a purchase which she originally said was “not planned nor anticipated”, and will repay the cost of the trip.

    She should be paying with her job.
    Does Turnbull have no standards!?!

    Young lady, you are becoming a master of the Rhetorical Question. Probably no money in it. But the Honour, your worship, the Honour.:wink:

  11. Jackol
    Thank you for your various posts re: the USA and Russia, particularly @5.53. I was interested to read what folk here thought of the possibilities once Trump is inaugurated in relation to what Putin might do. If Trump is going to go isolationist as he has indicated, plus withdraw support from NATO, it leaves a lot of room for Putin to manouvre to control more territory, if it suits him, and when has having more power and control not interested Putin.

  12. BK

    But Slipper was an enemy combatant!

    Which of course meant the thieving bastards charter aka the “Minchin Protocol” was nul and void

  13. Jackol

    I think we are thinking pretty much the same, except that there are a heck of a lot of people saying oh oh the evil Russians WITHOUT having your high degree of honesty etc. re the USA in the Middle East.

    Now I am less concerned about what Russia does in the RUSSIAN speaking/ethnic areas, because it is a very short time since these areas were part of the Russian federation and indeed effectively ruled Russia – Khrushchev was a Ukrainian and Stalin a Georgian, so I tend to be a bit meh on that just as many in the UK said about Brown and Blair re Scottish independence .

    Similarly where there are ethnic Russians on the border of Russia I am not especially disturbed by them seeking to rejoin. Given that all those over 25 were born Russian and their parents probably saw themselves as Russian I very much doubt that the lines on a map matter too much.

    The thing is that the USA was happy to dismember Serbia, WITHOUT the free and fair vote and compared with the USA excesses in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Libya, Russia still has a long, long way to go before being even mentioned in the same breath as USA.

  14. Hmmmm,
    maybe I’ve watched/read too many spy stories in my time (not to mention the real stuff we know about), but I just had a passing thought that perhaps the intel community in the US could decide that Trump was too much of a risk and something unfortunate happened to him prior to inauguration. JFK?
    I worked for a while with a very unwell paranoid bloke whose various delusions had all sorts of people after him. He was right, of course, we were after him, every time his injection was due.

  15. In the past month and a half, thousands of activists have started to push companies to take a stand on what you might call “hate news” — a toxic mix of lies, white-supremacist content and bullying that can inspire attacks on Muslims, gay people, women, African-Americans and others.

    How to Destroy the Business Model of Breitbart and Fake News

  16. Note to self: poroti’s emojis are bad juju.

    Anyhoo, what I said was that I don’t usually leave my glass of red under the bed for a late night drink. 😉

  17. dtt @ 6.29
    You leave me gob smacked. You really do.
    I’ve already pointed out that people in Europe (not to mention other parts of the world) are frequently multi-lingual. Places like Latvia would always line up against the last power to invade, no matter how many centuries ago. Places like Latvia, for instance are mostly peopled by very early migrants from the Indian subcontinent, as their art and language prove. My step father was fluent in 5 languages, including Russian, and fought against them because they were the last lot of invaders.
    I am reminded of a doco on “Alexander the Great” which travelled the same route he had while conquering the known world. Scene: a cafe in what is currently Iraq; a group of men are asked about Alexander; retort and universal support for same, “Don’t call him the Great, to us he was Alexander the Bastard WTTE”
    Moral: some things transcend many identity markers.

  18. Monica
    Putin has NOT actually annexed Eastern Ukraine ans shows no sign of even wanting to annexe it.

    Basically Russia (it is stupid to talk of Putin – he is just one powerful and cleaver president, but still acts with the country behind him) wants to secure its borders. There was an agreement when the USSR collapsed that NATO would stay well clear of the Russian borders. With Ukraine, Poland Serbia, Balkan states Georgia etc as reasonably friendly border states Russia felt secure.

    It was the USA (sadly Bill Clinton) who broke that agreement invading Serbia and installing missiles in Poland and some of the Baltic states. Together with the colour revolutions in neighbours I would think that Russia (as would ANY nation) would be feeling very, very twitchy.

    Also I gather there is a real fellow feeling of ethnic Russians with others and Russia because of decline population has always been keen to get ethnic Russians back. Those who carry on about Russia’s behaviour in those areas are really only upset because they lost strategic places and in fact had no more right to the area than did Russai, much less if the people are ethnic Russians.

    However this is much, much more complex where the people do not speak Russian, do not consider themselves Russian and particularly where they have a different religion- eg Catholic or Muslim. So West Ukraine, the Western areas of the Baltic states and Poland have no love for the Russians and any attempts by Russia to forcibly re-annexe then I would strenuously oppose.

    On the other hand the international community needs to be genuinely independent and recognise that militarisation of borders where there ARE tensions is a stupid idea. This missiles in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic are a bit too close to the Russian border for comfort, just as missiles in Mexico would probably trigger an armed response by the USA.

  19. but I just had a passing thought that perhaps the intel community in the US could decide that Trump was too much of a risk and something unfortunate happened to him prior to inauguration. JFK?

    The interesting thing is going to be how much effort the US intel community goes to in monitoring the activities of Trumps family / business connections and thier interactions with Russian and Chinese players. That’s the kind of area where those people who have “influence” withing large economies could exert themselves and threaten Trump.

    All gets complicated by who the “intel” community is obliged to report to on what they may pick up? Remember, there will be people on committees, a lot of them nominally Repugs who HATE and fear Trump so stuff will not, necessarily stay under the radar.

    And other countries that share intelligence with the US may be a little nervous about all this as well.

  20. More Ley / Turnbull madness in the name of cost cutting.

    Who wants to pay $30 to have a cold piece of plastic shoved inside them so their cervix can be scraped.

    No? I didn’t think so.

    But this is the reality facing women who need their pap smear once the federal government’s cuts to bulk-billing incentive payments kick in this July.

    Pap smears, blood tests, urine tests and imaging services are all going to start costing you something (or, costing you more if you’re already paying for them).

    Which doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.

    Pap smears help detect cervical cancer before it’s too late.

    Blood and urine tests are used all the time in preventative health care. They help doctors to catch heart, kidney and liver problems, and chronic diseases like diabetes. They are also the main way that we screen for STIs.

    So this funding cut could spell the end of free sexual health check-ups, which sounds risky.

  21. Vogon Poet
    There are a lot more subtle ways to get rid of some one ‘unsuitable’. Polonium tea or assassination are too obvious.
    Believe me when I tell you, there are ways of helping a person to recover from a mental disorder, mostly, and there are ways to get a person to absolutely lose it.

  22. Trump insider Jared Kushner chases a massive Chinese deal for family firm

    🙂 Enough of the media are going to after Trumps fat arse so that NUTHIN will go unremarked. Unless Trump tries to clamp down and that would likley go all counterproductive on him. 2017 is going to be an interesting and probably bad year.

  23. Even though Ley is one of the more competent and benign members of this vicious Government, and will be replaced by some RWNJ, I want her hounded out of office and preferably out of politics. Labor should take no prisoners on this. Her loss will weaken the Government, which will be a good thing. When they are on a totally wrong path, the weaker the better.

  24. Citizen,

    You are spot on re Ley.

    Her future is out of her hands, it is out of the hands of Turnbull and it relies on thee who are actually in charge of the liberal party.

    None of the information that has put out by the MSM has been researched by journos. As others have noted it is too detailed for that and most journos are lazy sods who need to be spoon fed. It is coming from inside the government and or the broader liberal party.

    Key and Turnbull have lost control of the story and I am sure more will be revealed as the agitators ramp things up. In fact it might even result in journos doing some work themselves. Stranger things have happened.

    Anyway, more to come.


  25. I Tweeted the David Rowe cartoon to Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

    LOL love that Rowe cartoon. I remember a Bill Maher segment which took the mickey out of media meltdown when Obama met and shook hands with some guy wearing a horse head costume. Maher said wtte ‘you should’ve seen what happened when he met with the horse’s ass’ and flicked to a photo of Obama shaking hands with some senior GOP figure.

    Today’s Rowe reminds me of that. 😀

  26. Monica
    Being bilingual is really not the issue so I guess you leave me gob smacked that you do not understand the cultural connections/divisions.

    Language is in fact simply a short cut way of identifying significant cultural/ethnic divides – It is NOT the language but the ethnicity or to be more accurate the sense of identity. Take the Scottish independence vote. I have not checked the data but I assume that the few remaining Gaelic speaking areas would have voted for independence strongly, but so too did many in the English speaking part. It is NOT about language as such but about the sense of identity, with language being a very strong indicator. Religion as I said is probably even more important, and so to are the folk tales and stories and heroes. Economics is also a very big factor.

    For countries that have been invaded by another any time up to 1,000 years ago (the Welsh still hate the English) there is likely to be a separate identity and a sense of resentment at the alien overlords.

    Now I do not pretend to have a detailed knowledge as to which bits of the former USSR actually identify with Russia (or at least the majority of the population does) but I assume rationally that where they speak Russian (as mother tongue), share a common religion, were largely settled from Russia and share a common set of folk heroes, there will be a strong sentiment toward re-unification. however if there remains even a small degree of resentment for an invader (eg Scotland and Wales) then there will be much less enthusiasm. You also need to throw in recent shared history/battles (eg ANZAC helping to forge bonds between Australian states or in the case of Russia WWII and the Napoleonic invasion) as well as economic benefits/losses you can make a reasonable first prediction.

    So you cannot assume that being bilingual does anything to address these cultural problems – after all England fought with France although all the nobility spoke fluent French. Speaking Spanish does not make US citizens Mexican or visa versa.

    Now in the Ukraine (which is the only place I have looked at closely) there is a huge overlap between being Ukrainian speaking and also being Catholic. Not surprisingly such areas, like Poland also will be more strongly attracted towards countries such as France and Italy with their large Catholic populations. On the other hand the eastern parts of Ukraine are largely Russian orthodox or non religious and likelwise are more attracted to Russia.

    Not rocket science.

  27. DTT:

    where they speak Russian (as mother tongue), share a common religion, were largely settled from Russia and share a common set of folk heroes, there will be a strong sentiment toward re-unification.

    So we can expect the US to reunite with the UK, then, any moment now?

  28. But after all you’ve said there, DTT, so what? Are you suggesting that just because the people in Eastern Ukraine may feel more Russian than Ukrainian (as possibly evidenced by their voting behaviour in presidential elections) that it would be ok for Russia to just invade, or sponsor an armed insurrection? Or do you think there should be a process of free debate followed by voting? Or is that a bit wimpish?

  29. Jack A Randa

    that it would be ok for Russia to just invade, or sponsor an armed insurrection?

    If it is OK for the US to sponsor a coup against the elected government then sure it is.

  30. Monica

    It is interesting to consider the extent of Russian sentiment in all those who have led the former USSR.

    I was really surprised to find that with the exception of the three earliest – Lenin, Rykov and Molotov, the USSR leader have all been from Ukraine of the Caucasus. Brezhnev, Kruschov, Gorbachev, and several of the minor leaders like Andopov were all actually Ukranian – mostly from the Donbass region, while Stalin was an ethic Georgian – original name Dagashvili. Even Lenin appears to have an ethnic origin in part from the Caucasus ie not Russian speaking.

  31. [Zoomster
    Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 7:50 pm
    Maybe not, but if the UK invades the US, don’t expect dtt to think it’s a big deal.]

    Trump does have an excuse to invade the UK, to ensure that his Scottish golf course remains open for business. In that case, he would presumably install his mate Nigel Farage as PM. {grinning emoticon}

  32. Sussan Ley MP
    28 mins ·
    I have spent the past 48 hours examining my travel records.

    Got I thought I was slow when it came to working out what I did.

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