This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.
This week’s supplementary news bites all relate to the legal issues surrounding eligibility to sit in parliament, in each case involving minor party or independent MPs.
• After announcing he would resign from the Senate following the collapse of his housing construction group, Bob Day has indicated he might yet hang on if a deal for an investor to save the business comes through. However, authorities on such matters cited in media reports say the fact that his companies are in the hands of liquidators mean there is little chance of that happening. At the very least, Day is insisting on remaining in the Senate until the end of the year, saying in a statement that “marriage plebiscite legislation, ABCC and our other work is too important to Family First to have a vacant seat for even one day in November”. Fairfax reports that unions are “considering their options” with respect to a legal challenge to Day’s right to sit in the Senate given his financial position, but as Bernard Keane of Crikey explains, a court would need to determine Day was insolvent before section 44(iii) of the Constitution would have legal force.
• Western Australia’s One Nation Senator, Rod Culleton, has dodged one bullet after a court in New South Wales did not record a conviction against him after he pleaded guilty to larceny. This related to an incident in which he removed the keys from the ignition of a tow truck whose driver was attempting to repossess a car he was leasing and threw them into a ditch. He thus eludes, for now, the reach of section 44(ii), by which one may not a hold a seat if one is “convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer”. However, two further obstacles lie ahead: a creditor’s petition that threatens him with bankruptcy, on which a court hearing is set for November 21; and another charge relating to an incident in which he surrounded a car being used by receivers foreclosing on his Western Australian rural property with hay bales to prevent them from leaving. This allegedly amounted to theft of the car, and requires him to face court in March.
• In the Northern Territory, the Electoral Commission has begun proceedings against the election of Yolngu leader Yingiya Mark Guyula, who won the seat of Nhulunbuy as an independent at the August 27 Northern Territory election from Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker by a margin of eight votes. It now emerges that Guyula was serving on the Milingimbi Community Advisory Board, for which he was paid all of $482 in allowances for attending four meetings. There does not appear to be much doubt that this is sufficient to trigger a prohibition on persons holding public office from running for election. The NTEC’s action comes after the Guyula’s difficulty was reported on a fortnight ago by the Northern Territory News. In the view of Ken Parish, a former Labor MP and now Darwin legal academic and stalwart of the Australian blogosphere (who signed Guyula’s statement of reply as a witness), the leak was almost certainly the work of Labor, which has a “distinctly inexperienced” front bench that “badly needs the services” of Walker. The most likely outcome would seem to be the voiding of the result and a by-election, at which Guyula would presumably be free to run if he divested himself of the position.
• Guyula’s difficulty relates to a section of the Northern Territory self-government act that echoes section 44(iv) of the Constitution, which applies to anyone who “holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth”, other than ministers and military officers. This resulted in the voiding of the election of independent Phil Cleary at the Wills by-election of 1992 and Liberal member Jackie Kelly in the seat of Lindsay at the 1996 election, both of whom were subsequently re-elected. A parliamentary inquiry in 1998 recommended that this section of the Constitution be removed through a referendum on the basis that it was “uncertain and unfair” in the modern context, and that the relevant objectives could be better served through less restrictive measures determined by the parliament.
• Former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley has made a submission to the parliamentary inquiry into the recent federal election, in which he suggests a disclosure scheme to handle another constitutional prohibition on election candidates: this one relating to foreign citizens or those “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power”, as per section 44(i). This was used to overturn the election of One Nation’s Heather Hill to a Queensland Senate seat in 1998 on the grounds that she held dual citizenship. There were some who queried whether Tony Abbott had duly renounced his British citizenship when he first ran for parliament in 1994, or at any point thereafter. Maley argues that the status of citizenship is more difficult to determine that matters relating to solvency, convictions and the holding of public office, and that the best solution is to require candidates not born in Australia to provide “a complete statement of the facts on which he or she wished to rely to establish the absence of any relevant disqualification under section 44(i) of the Constitution, along with copies of any supporting documents providing evidence relevant to the issue”.
** It’s time for Trump to answer serious questions about his ties to Russia **
Two wives from behind the Iron Curtain.
In the movie The Ghost Writer, Cherie Blair was a CIA agent.
Oh, no, wait. Slovenia as part of Yugoslavia was theoretically outside the Curtain.
Whither the EU banking system?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/30/italy-banking-crisis-doom-loop/
Simon
So should Hillary Clinton (and just about every other US politician) discuss ties with Israel, Saudi, UK (still a foreign power), Germany, Australia, France and Ukraine.
Now do not get me wrong – close ties to any foreign nation is a bad thing – but it is not appropriate to be selective about it. It is basically batshit crazy to single out Russia or Bhutan, Mongolia or Tuvalu as “evil.” Every nation has strategic interests and alliances which may change over time.
Some countries/regions have truly evil leaders with hideous human rights abuses while others may be a little bit bad but useful strategically or commercially. Most are only averagely bad with bad public relations, some are averagely bad with good PR. Some – not many may be good. In category 1 I guess I would place North Korea, Some of the ISIS leaders and probably some African leaders. Saudi would come pretty damn close with their stoning to death.
In terms of international aggressors (defined as attacks on other peoples or regions using air strikes and/or ground troops) we have the following – over the last 30 years. Forget about the reasons – these are mostly all PR rubbish like the Belgian babies in WWI. these are usually hyped up, one sides or sometimes manufactured.
USA/NATO – Serbia
USA – Somalia
USA -Iraq (Kuwait)
USA – Afghanistan
USA – Iraq
USA/NATO – Libya
USA – Syria
Israel – Palestine (about 10 times)
Israel – Lebanon (twice)
Russia – Georgia
Russia – Crimea – (reclamation of previous territory)
My Melbourne Cup prediction was wrong, but I am very happy about it. The winner is Taxpayer, by a nose from Justice at Last, with Creditor third.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-01/bob-day-resigns/7983088
About the Bob Day resignation. I heard it on ABC radio. The delay was explained in terms of some mysterious buyer who might have bought him out but then the deal fell through.
No mention of the college payment.
Pine Gap is a nuclear target. There are probably more that we don’t realize.
It’s not so far-fetched.
CC
No mention of the name of the “buyer” either. In other words, no way of knowing if they existed, or if it was just another stalling tactic. Of course Day would have loved a “white knight” investor, but seriously, who buys an insolvent company in a falling market? It was at best a delusional hope, at worst a lie.
It will be interesting to see what emerges about Day.
Given this government, I can’t see Day resigning less that a day after the college funding article, perhaps there is more to this to emerge, perhaps he has arranged for his successor, and doesn’t want to see the vote tainted.
BB
Australian Defence Satellite Communications Station, Kojarena
Wishful thinking?
Trump the last Republican presidential candidate?
https://medium.com/@salsop/the-last-republican-cf5b4c17e495#.sttmej3a7
Perhaps the USA will join the 20th century.
Essential fed poll
TPP: ALP 52 (0) L/NP 48 (0)
Primaries: ALP 37(0) L/NP 38(0) GRN 10(0) NXT 2(-1) ON 6(0) OTH 7(+1)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Essential-Report_011124.pdf
Bernard’s paywalled analysis
“Essential: older voters endorse cut to parental leave”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/11/01/essential-older-voters-endorse-cut-to-parental-leave/
Also see this by Bernard, not on Essential but worth a look
“Turnbull flogging a dead horse on refugee issue”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/11/01/turnbull-repeats-asylum-seeker-strategy-without-success/
Bill
I agree on Pine Gap. I think it was Edward Snowden that mentioned it as one of the USA’s key sites in its surveillance programs, including missile launches. The US uses it to communicate with satellites that cover about 1/3 of the globe.
Maybe they would not target it with a nuke, but certainly taking out the radars and comms would be a key target in a nuclear war.
On Trump and Comey, this story today takes the cake:
“Washington was electrified by a report that more than a month before the election, Comey argued to other security chiefs that it was too close to the poll to accuse Russia of meddling in US politics in a way seen to help Trump; but he had no regard for the proximity of the vote in revealing he was reactivating the FBI’s Clinton email investigation with just 11 days to go.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/us-election/republicans-attack-fbis-james-comey-for-double-standards-on-russian-revelations-20161031-gsf4zw.html
Republicans criticising Comey might just be their going for cover now that the damage has been done. But for Comey, this seems indefensible. You can get lawyers to argue almost anything, but one thing that damns them is inconsistency. Comey has used one principle to avoid commenting on Trump a month ago, and ignored the same principle to comment on Clinton. It is indefensible.
What are the going to do? Throw rocks at it? In a nuclear war they’d just flatten it with a nuclear missle attack. We’re talking Armageddon here, not border tensions.
Jay Weatherall should hang his head in shame over this deal. The Gillman land purchase, after he and Koutsantonis forced it through contrary to process, against the advice of the RSA board, and then blaming them for it, has collapsed.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-01/financial-deadline-for-gillman-land-deal-missed/7983422
Why do successive SA governments, each equally bad at financial management, imagine that something worthless will become valuable by throwing the administrative rule-book away? The rules were written to stop this sort of thing happening.
You have no business protecting your personal reputation by influencing, or being seen to influence the result of a Presidential election.
In these cases you fall on your sword, which in Comey’s case appears to be the announcement me made earlier saying the investigation was over. He cannot have it both ways.
Bill
Quite possibly. I don’t know. I just mean they would attack it by means nuclear or otherwise. But if it is a small target, some forms of cruise missiles would presumably do. The Russians have used them in Syria from naval ships recently, with very long range and accuracy.
Trying to read the entrails of the Melbourne Cup, I will see it as pro-Trump if 1 Big Organge or 13 Heartbreak City wins, and pro-Clinton if Grey Lion or Excess Knowledge wins. Have a good afternoon all, for the race that distracts a nation.
simon katich @ #1697 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 12:45 pm
I found it utterly unintuitive, especially after e-tax. I couldn’t find much information I wanted without going back into the ATO site and searching for source documents and advice. And the stupid system where they ask a handful of questions that are confusing at the start and then only opens up certain questions was an absolute nightmare. I would not be surprised if there are many areas from people who do not have the most basic returns.
Bill
I agree on Comey too. The damage is done. He is damned by both sides now. Whoever wins will want a new director.
I will always wonder now if somebody put him up to it. Highly likely I expect. If he is appointed to a cushy post as President of a wealthy private university soon after resigning, we will know the answer.
bushfire bill @ #1707 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 1:35 pm
I see nuclear war like a chain reaction. It doesn’t matter where the first one drops; unless it is a rogue like North Korea that can be contained by a collective response, there will be nuclear armed missiles flying everywhere.
As for Pine Gap, hitting it with a nuclear weapon would be like dropping a 100kg iron block on a single cockroach to kill it. Pointless, if you have anything else to use.
bushfire bill @ #1717 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 2:09 pm
I posted earlier, but nobody bit, that Comey reminds me strongly of John Kerr. Ego, fear of criticism and, most of all, the idea that you have to do something decisive.
The terrible thing is that he made precisely the wrong call. If he had anything of actual substance he could have justified coming out now, but it would be totally justified to hold on to what he had until he at least knew whether it was a false lead or not. The fact that he intervened, whatever words he used, guaranteed that the information he had would be seen to be of real evidential value, and not just something to be addressed.
House prices in Sydney up 95.7% since GFC.
Of course we don’t need a banking Royal Commission
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-cut-rates-for-savers-after-august-pr-exercise-20161031-gsf1gb.html
TPOF
The Russians have a submarine launched cruise missile that can easy do the distance from the open sea. Capable of being conventionally or nuclear ‘tipped’.
Must admit that Dami M did a great job singing today, especially the National Anthem.
No trilling, jiving, or la-la-la. Did it straight and perfect.
Of course, if the Carlingford branch of the Liberal party has its way Dami will be sent back to the rice paddy whence she came… and good riddance to her. Who gave HER permission to sing our sacred Aussie song? Eh? Tell me that!
Pine Gap is too strategically important to chance missing it with a dud missle. They’d just nuke it and be certain.
All this talk of rapier-like thrusts and pin-point accuracy from precisely targeted cruise missiles launched from lurking submarines etc. is pointless if a nuclear war is on.
They’d just atomize the place.
Alice Springs would, sadly, be collateral damage.
Canberra would go as well. Too much chance that somebody important would be there when war broke out. Then there are the defence signals facilities. All meaty targets.
Plus of course nuking Canberra would turn Australia into an even greater unmanageable headless chook than it is under Turnbull.
BB
Might cause $15 worth of damage to the Alice.
Presumably the Hansonites and RWNJs in the Coalition would love to exclude those rich Arabs (Muslims presumably) from the Melbourne Cup. And for the Cup to be sponsored by an Arab airline! Time to send those undesirables back to where they came from and give us a 100% Aussie Melbourne Cup!
ctar1 @ #1726 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 2:39 pm
All I’m saying that nuclear warheads don’t come cheap. I cannot see the point of not using a conventional warhead. The only rational (in a perverted sense) use of a nuclear weapon is to lay waste to great swathes of productive land or to kill lots of people. I can see the point of dropping it on Canberra and getting every possible location of strategic significance in one hit, but you don’t need a nuclear warhead to knock out a stand-alone single site like Pine Gap.
………………………………………………………
The Saturday Paper had a good article recently on the changing role of Pine Gap – maybe other sites ahead of it now for nuclear targeting –
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/10/01/what-really-happens-pine-gap/14752440003801
tpof @ #1733 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 2:55 pm
Where is there a need for money after a nuclear war?
https://twitter.com/i/live/788568789382074368 Internet coverage of the Melbourne Cup.
Dave – Good old Harold E Holt also a possibility.
It has often been speculated that as well as radio transmission it is also at the end of a SOSUS line.
Cupid
It’s definitely on my ‘couldn’t give a rats’ list.
Good question. Depends on how extensive a nuclear war is. If it is so extensive that China or Russia will waste a warhead on a single, relatively small military site, then it does not matter. Nor does it matter in the slightest that Pine Gap or some similar places are targetted with nuclear warheads. Because we are all gone anyway. But, assuming that Colonel Kong is not riding the missile, you don’t want to be wasting your warheads (and, possibly, missiles) on a site unless there is a comparable strategic advantage.
Mmmm. There are so many nukes on all sides (still) and so much multi-targeting that if a decision to let fly is ever taken, its likely many places will be hit over and over.
The close in subs getting the main targets early.
Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety – by Eric Schlosser is a bit old now but it outlined the situation back in the 1970’s.
Turnbull can’t just ‘put’ Abbott into Foreign Affairs.
As Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, Bishop has first choice of ministries.
She chose Foreign Affairs a couple of months ago.
There is nothing that Turnbull can offer Bishop that she might be interested except his own job…
J Bisop would be no better as PM.She would be another puppet for the RWNJs.
I hope the RWNJs bring the whole party down with them.
** It is basically batshit crazy to single out Russia or Bhutan, Mongolia or Tuvalu as “evil.” **
Firstly, I was joking about Trumps wives.
Secondly, I certainly didnt say Russia was evil. Russian mothers love their children too.
Thirdly, in this case, its batshit crazy to compare Russia to Tuvalu or just about any other country.
** It’s definitely on my ‘couldn’t give a rats’ list. **
Its all very ‘Hunger Games’ to me.
BoerWar at 3:17
There is nothing that Turnbull can offer Bishop that she might be interested except his own job…
I cannot imagine anybody a milligram of brains wanting to take over from Turnbull. Of course, with the Libs that leaves a large field of candidates.
I’m reminded of the situation when the UAP revolted against Menzies, and replaced him with the Country Party Fadden, only to be defeated by the vote of the independent Cole, ushering in Curtin as PM. (No, I wasn’t alive then, but I can read books!)
DareToTread
Abbott threatened to shirtfront Putin
When given ample chance, Abbott failed to follow through.
Putin will just ignore Abbott, as should you…
RBA keeps rate at 1.5%.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-01/reserve-bank-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold/7983910
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/01/tony-abbotts-travel-bankrolled-by-spectator-magazine-and-liberal-party-donor?CMP=share_btn_tw
It’s not standalone.It has many radomes that are visible even from Google, spaced out overa substantial area. Then there would be the ones that are not visible, camouflaged to look like the surrounding countryside.
Then the bunkers with all their processing equipment. Who knowswhat’s in them? And who really knows what they do there with it?
We know a few things that we’ve been told about, but count that as misinformation or deliberate omission.
I can just see a Russian junior officer telling his general (who’s in the middle of fighting a nuclear war) that cost/benefit analysis is balanced against using expensive nukes to take out what is one of America’s prime strategic satellite bases:
“Better to save the money on rebuilding the Motherland, Comrade General! Use conventional explosives instead. You’ll probably get most of the radomes that way!”
“Take this traitor out and shoot him. Better still… I’ll do it myself.”