This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.
This week’s supplementary news bites all relate to the legal issues surrounding eligibility to sit in parliament, in each case involving minor party or independent MPs.
• After announcing he would resign from the Senate following the collapse of his housing construction group, Bob Day has indicated he might yet hang on if a deal for an investor to save the business comes through. However, authorities on such matters cited in media reports say the fact that his companies are in the hands of liquidators mean there is little chance of that happening. At the very least, Day is insisting on remaining in the Senate until the end of the year, saying in a statement that “marriage plebiscite legislation, ABCC and our other work is too important to Family First to have a vacant seat for even one day in November”. Fairfax reports that unions are “considering their options” with respect to a legal challenge to Day’s right to sit in the Senate given his financial position, but as Bernard Keane of Crikey explains, a court would need to determine Day was insolvent before section 44(iii) of the Constitution would have legal force.
• Western Australia’s One Nation Senator, Rod Culleton, has dodged one bullet after a court in New South Wales did not record a conviction against him after he pleaded guilty to larceny. This related to an incident in which he removed the keys from the ignition of a tow truck whose driver was attempting to repossess a car he was leasing and threw them into a ditch. He thus eludes, for now, the reach of section 44(ii), by which one may not a hold a seat if one is “convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer”. However, two further obstacles lie ahead: a creditor’s petition that threatens him with bankruptcy, on which a court hearing is set for November 21; and another charge relating to an incident in which he surrounded a car being used by receivers foreclosing on his Western Australian rural property with hay bales to prevent them from leaving. This allegedly amounted to theft of the car, and requires him to face court in March.
• In the Northern Territory, the Electoral Commission has begun proceedings against the election of Yolngu leader Yingiya Mark Guyula, who won the seat of Nhulunbuy as an independent at the August 27 Northern Territory election from Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker by a margin of eight votes. It now emerges that Guyula was serving on the Milingimbi Community Advisory Board, for which he was paid all of $482 in allowances for attending four meetings. There does not appear to be much doubt that this is sufficient to trigger a prohibition on persons holding public office from running for election. The NTEC’s action comes after the Guyula’s difficulty was reported on a fortnight ago by the Northern Territory News. In the view of Ken Parish, a former Labor MP and now Darwin legal academic and stalwart of the Australian blogosphere (who signed Guyula’s statement of reply as a witness), the leak was almost certainly the work of Labor, which has a “distinctly inexperienced” front bench that “badly needs the services” of Walker. The most likely outcome would seem to be the voiding of the result and a by-election, at which Guyula would presumably be free to run if he divested himself of the position.
• Guyula’s difficulty relates to a section of the Northern Territory self-government act that echoes section 44(iv) of the Constitution, which applies to anyone who “holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth”, other than ministers and military officers. This resulted in the voiding of the election of independent Phil Cleary at the Wills by-election of 1992 and Liberal member Jackie Kelly in the seat of Lindsay at the 1996 election, both of whom were subsequently re-elected. A parliamentary inquiry in 1998 recommended that this section of the Constitution be removed through a referendum on the basis that it was “uncertain and unfair” in the modern context, and that the relevant objectives could be better served through less restrictive measures determined by the parliament.
• Former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley has made a submission to the parliamentary inquiry into the recent federal election, in which he suggests a disclosure scheme to handle another constitutional prohibition on election candidates: this one relating to foreign citizens or those “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power”, as per section 44(i). This was used to overturn the election of One Nation’s Heather Hill to a Queensland Senate seat in 1998 on the grounds that she held dual citizenship. There were some who queried whether Tony Abbott had duly renounced his British citizenship when he first ran for parliament in 1994, or at any point thereafter. Maley argues that the status of citizenship is more difficult to determine that matters relating to solvency, convictions and the holding of public office, and that the best solution is to require candidates not born in Australia to provide “a complete statement of the facts on which he or she wished to rely to establish the absence of any relevant disqualification under section 44(i) of the Constitution, along with copies of any supporting documents providing evidence relevant to the issue”.
Seems like a worthwhile suggestion –
CTar1
I agee.
Lib ‘delcon’ at ‘it’ –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-28/eric-abetz-questions-gillian-triggs'-'credibility'/7973024
According to ABC24 the Victoria Govt minister who had his dogs transported to his country property using his official car and driver also neglected to list his country property on his declaration of interests …
If true Dan Andrews will be regretting not ditching him yesterday.
(‘Rex’ will be having conniptions!)
CTar1
The doggy minister has a very unpleasant voice and manner. I wonder if his dogs like him.
Lizzie
Maybe that’s why they travel separately!
Morning bludgers
Extremely disappointing conduct by the Victorian Minister. In previous Vic Labor govt, he was member of an adjoining seat in my area. He was a very productive MP who was very connected to the community he served.
BK’s dawn patrol which was on previous thread
BK
Friday, October 28, 2016 at 4:47 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
This is serious shit! Some of the bucket of deplorables are predicting riots in the event of a Clinton win. Nice work Donald!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/rigged-polls-and-conspiracy-theories-trump-supporters-predict-a-riot-if-he-loses-20161027-gsclea.html
John Hewson says that there’s an obvious way for Malcolm Turnbull to beat the politics of fear: leadership.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/theres-an-obvious-way-for-malcolm-turnbull-to-beat-the-politics-of-fear-leadership-20161026-gsbp73.html
Michael Pascoe says Ardent/Dreamworld failed at every step but one.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/ardent-has-failed-at-every-step-over-the-dreamworld-tragedy–except-deciding-to-reopen-20161027-gscgat.html
It was a lesson in crisis mismanagement from the company. Google.
/brand/chanticleer/ardent-leisures-lesson-in-crisis-mismanagement-20161027-gscciq
And already it’s coming out that police are focussing on potential breaches of the Workplace Helath and Safety Act. Google.
/national-affairs/health/dreamworld-tragedy-emotions-spill-over-amid-safety-laws-probe/news-story/204b0d34a8539179ac5419ccff3b8279
Saul Estlake reckons a Trump presidency could lead to economic disasters.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-donald-trump-presidency-could-bring-economic-disasters-20161026-gsbldd.html
How long have you got to live? Here’s all the latest information.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-life-expectancy-hits-alltime-high-20161027-gsccau.html
Australians’ average credit score is falling. What are we headed for?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/credit-bureau-veda-reveals-nearly-3m-australians-at-risk-of-credit-default-20161026-gsbqld.html
I like Qantas’s use of the term “small adjustments” here!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-ratchets-up-excess-baggage-fees-by-75-per-cent-20161026-gsbrkw.html
Channels 7 and 9 to battle it out in court over the popularity of their breakfast programs. Who gives a toss?
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/today-v-sunrise-court-stoush-could-these-press-releases-be-a-headache-for-channel-seven-20161027-gschtg.html
Paul McGeough writes that the Republicans are not waiting for the election -they are turning upon each other already! It’s a circular firing squad.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/republicans-not-waiting-for-election-day-turn-on-each-other-20161026-gsbpfp.html
Trump has caused a serious rift between women and men within the Republican Party. Hardly surprising.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/war-on-women-flares-within-republican-party-20161027-gsc704.html
Good Morning Bludgers!
Thanks for the link in the previous thread to Taegan Goddard’s ‘Political Wire’. I particularly loved this quote from Matt Bai:
: )
Section 2 . . .
Will America’s Fox News change?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/megyn-kellys-pivotal-moment-could-prove-a-game-changer-for-fox-news-20161026-gsbo2d.html
Trump says he’d run the country like his business. That’s hardly a plus!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/ill-run-america-like-my-business-donald-trump-20161027-gsbz2z.html
Trump faces the prospect of being the biggest presidential election loser of all time but still won’t say if he’ll accept the result.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/27/donald-trump-stands-a-real-chance-of-being-the-biggest-loser-in/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
The perils of a divided government in the US. Let’s hope Trump does so badly that the gridlock can be broken.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-perils-of-divided-government-in-the-us-20161026-gsbrhr.html
The ghost of Kerry Packer has wise words for Channel Nine: ‘Call the bloody cricket!’
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/the-ghost-of-kerry-packer-has-wise-words-for-channel-nine-call-the-bloody-cricket-20161027-gsbty8.html
Labor is still going in hard on Brandis as they insist on being told whether or not the Solicitor-General gave advice on the anti-terror legislation currently before parliament.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-demands-confirmation-solicitorgeneral-approved-terrorism-legislation-20161027-gsc9ae.html
Now it’s the practices of the novated lease industry that is coming under scrutiny. The spivs are everywhere!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/novated-leasing-market-criticised-for-withholding-true-costs-from-customers-20161025-gsabea.html
Jess Irvine tells us that soon Australia will become the developed world’s worst off when it comes to paid parental leave.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/paid-parental-leave-australian-parents-set-to-become-worst-off-in-the-developed-world-20161027-gsc6kq.html
Another Turnbull back flip on the way?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sympathetic-malcolm-turnbull-prepared-to-negotiate-over-paid-parental-leave-change-20161027-gsc24b.html
Steph Peatling reckons MPs need a biology lesson over their apparent assumption of seven months pregnancies.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/paid-parental-leave-a-lesson-about-the-birds-and-the-bees-for-our-mps-20161026-gsbseg.html
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/abc-management-snubs-government-with-new-enterprise-agreement-20161026-gsbq3a.html
Kelly O’Dwyer for Higgins corflutes going up at South Yarra station.
Imminent DD election?
Just going for some good publicity to cancel out the other publicity she has had recently?
My local member has finally gone completely insane?
Section 3 . . .
The spiv developer that illegally demolished the Carlton pub is in major damage control.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/we-will-rebuild-it-developers-say-sorry-hire-lobbyists-and-spinners-20161027-gscg0d.html
Michelle Grattan says that Morrison has opened the housing affordability crisis but she wonders if he can control it.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-opens-housing-affordability-debate-but-can-he-control-it-67796
Warwick Smith says that Morrison’s “fix” on housing affordability is no more than a sop to his party’s big development donors.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exposed-scomos-fix-on-housing-costs-a-sop-to-libs-big-developer-donors,9640
Surely the pious Bob Day would have known his company was cactus for a long time before the last election. He’s $35m in the red already.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/family-first-senator-bob-days-companies-owe-total-of-378m
We haven’t seen the end of Islamic State even though it is losing the war in Mosul writes Waleed Aly.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-havent-seen-the-end-of-islamic-state-even-though-it-is-losing-the-war-in-mosul-20161025-gsab6v.html
It’s Spivs Central as major charities think again about how they raise money.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/major-charities-rethink-contracts-with-appco-amid-class-action-exploitation-claims-20161027-gsbulq.html
Spivs everywhere! The Victorian government is getting serious about the labour hire industry. Now it’s your turn Michaelia.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/worker-abuses-prompt-labour-hire-reform-in-victoria-20161027-gsbwws.html
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir’s got some bad news for Turnbull and his close associates.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-demands-confirmation-solicitorgeneral-approved-terrorism-legislation-20161027-gsc9ae.html
David Rowe has a beauty on what’s under Barnaby’s bed.
Andrew Dyson has a good snip at Soapy.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
Ron Tandberg with all roads leading to Rome.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Mark Knight couldn’t resist the chauffeured pets story.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5e28e3e9f38b2a12b35537a2b501e83e?width=1024
Bill Leak and his employer just won’t let go!
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ed7e476a5e95fa529bf764e02bb182cc
Garry Kasparov
7m7 minutes ago
Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63
The “Kremlin supporting Wikileaks” would be one matter alone, but the opposite is also clearly true. Wikileaks supports the Kremlin. https://twitter.com/EdanYago/status/791746033579589632 …
Scott
Maybe the tip wouldn’t take them.
Oh dear Trump’s odds are improving
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Scott
Perhaps her constituents are ignoring her and she wants attention?
Scott Bales,
Looxery! Our Local Member, Lucy Wicks, is so wealthy she can afford to keep paying for the massive, as in the side of a barn size, LED screen portrait of her and Spiv-In-Chief Turnbull, picture to keep playing in rotation with other ads as you wait at the traffic lights outside her electorate office!
A general comment on the US election and Nate Silver’s approach.
It will be extremely interesting to see just how well his model works in a volatile election such as this one. I would be interested to get William’s and Kevin’s comments.
In the last week there have been 10 polls released in Ohio, of which trump has won 8 and tied in 2. In the previous week there were 8 polls Trump won in 6. Only if you go back three weeks ago (before the last two debates) do you get Clinton winning 8/10 polls.
So the polling issue is how much do you weight older polls?
Didn’t Disney do a movie predicting this POTUS election called “Lady and the Trump”?
Another ‘version’ of that fairfax spinning top ?
turnbull praised for doing nothing and surrendering to the RWNJ’s and sinodinos has got his ‘memory’ back –
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/by-delegating-power-turnbull-tries-to-avoid-rudd-and-abbotts-mistakes-20161021-gs7oi2#ixzz4OKAXsX7E
Oh dear Trump’s odds are improving
He can so win it from a 17% probability! ; )
Vic,
There’s a pretty big difference between a few percent movement around a 17% chance of winning that are as likely to be down to natural polling variation and ‘improving’.
The only thing that would even make this close based on even this week’s polling would be an across the board issue with the polling understating Trump’s election day support by about 5%. There is plenty of reason to believe the polling understating HRC’s support is equally possible.
Also Nate has stated numerous times that his method is more generous to Trump than other methods because of the way he treats various uncertainties quite conservatively.
Trump is a 1 in 6 chance on 538’s method, so yeah it could happen. But it would be an enormous upset and challenge to the validity of the polls that makes Cameron’s majority and Brexit look like polling triumphs.
I’ve always strongly suspected that Malcolm is basically a totally lazy shit who just wants to prance around and play PM. Looks like I was right.
From reading in the GG I expect the domestic violence leave provision will be the next front in the right’s culture wars.
Michaela Cash is ducking the issue but appears to oppose it.
Probably on the basis that any IR benefits should be stripped rather than extended.
I think that ideology is part of what is behind the maternity leave changes. They don’t want it as part of employment agreements, if it is it should be at a minimum level.
Workers who are good at negotiating can, for themselves alone, negotiate a better employment package.
…..Sinodinos – has changed the appearance of ministers’ cabinet submissions.
…….. checks submissions for clarity and factual accuracy
Well that seems to be going well.
From my calculations they are averaging one policy change /backflip a week.
John – the entire ‘article’ should be filed under “B” for bullshit given turnbull’s serial backflips and stuffups. It reads more like a paid article.
As for sinodinos….the least said the better.
Victoria
83% is still rather good odds. I can see no realistic way that Trump could win, unless something really bizarre happened in the “rust belt” – Michigan, Pennsylvania etc and there is not a shred of evidence that it will.
So you can relax. Me less so because I fear WWIII. Vlad also obviously has no expectation of a trump win, hence sending 7 warships to the Mediterranean.
Now before Darren et al froth at the mouth and accuse me of hyperbole, I assume that all world leaders will be reluctant to start WWIII and especially a nuclear war, so the actual risk is probably not high. However the consequences are hideous – so having done a proper “risk analysis” – as the Deamworld people did not, it looks like this.
Consequences of nuclear war – catastrophic. Give it a score of 50. Chances of Hillary going there say 2%, Chances of Trump going there 1%. Hillary 100, Trump 50
Consequences of a conventional war with Russia. Consequences terrible but not catastrophic Score 10. Chances of Hillary going there 40%, Chances of Trump going there 10%. Hillary 4, Trump 1
Chances of a war with China – conventional – Consequences for Australia higher than a war with Russia so give it 20. Chances of Hillary precipitating this – 5%, Chances Trump 10%. Hillary 10, Trump 20.
Add up the scores – Hillary 114 for risk, Trump 71.
If you do not like my analysis do your bloody own, but do not just wail and say hyperbole. Risk analysis is what we demand of Dreamworld ie what is the most catastrophic impact of an activity if risks not adequately addressed. You take steps to mitigate the extreme high end risks. – Extra maintenance, close a ride, extra staff fail safe switches – whatever .
In the case of possible nuclear war, because of the catastrophic consequences, even slight reduction in the chances of such a war will make a huge impact on the outcome of a risk analysis.
Now in the case of Trump versus Clinton, there is no doubt that Clinton will be sane and sensible in most matters especially all the social issues such as rights for women, SSM, environmental management etc. Neither will have much impact on the economy for good or ill – it is what it is .
However Hillary is keen on bear baiting and this is of great concern.
But current and former insiders say the Prime Minister deserves credit for doing what no prime minister may have achieved since Julia Gillard became Labor leader in 2010: making a complex government run relatively smoothly.
Oh Lord.
Sure, a government of inertia can seem to be running smoothly I guess. Doing nothing isn’t particularly challenging. Even Turnbull has mastered that.
It all falls to shit in seconds, when they try to DO something. Turnbull tries to DO GST – it turns to shit, Turnbull tries to DO state income tax – it turns to shit, Turnbull tries to DO SSM – it turns to shit, O’Dwyer tries to do Parliament – it turns to shit, ScoMo tries to do (what exactly is it ScoMo tries to do?) – it turns to shit, Barnyard tries to DO blatant shonky shit – it turns to shit, Brandis tries to do anything at all – it turns to shit.
I suppose at least there is a kind of smoothness in the predictability of their incompetence. Every idea they have can be pretty much discounted at the time of it’s genesis because you know they are going to fuck it up and it will never really make it into the real world. And so the smooth ride of a sailing ship becalmed on a glassy sea continues for years on end.
Soprry, numbers need cxorrection
Nuclear war H 1, T0.50
War with Russia H 4 T1
War China H1, T2
Relative risk Hillary 6, T 3.5
Sorry changed methods mid stream.
scott bales @ #12 Friday, October 28, 2016 at 8:03 am
Any connection with the Libs wanting a metro station there to interchange with existing rail?
DTT
Making up numbers and adding them together is not analysis.
Bemused
I think you’ve got it. I believe the Feds are saying their funding depends on adding South Yarra station.
The upshot of that whole AFR article about the marvy new way Turnbull runs his government is encapsulated in this paragraph:
The new openness is good for business, which has more opportunity to press for policy changes in its interest. Whether that will produce better government is unclear.
The Turnbull government as a simulacrum for Business and it’s desires.
Not once in that article did I read about a lobbyist from the Welfare or Disability sector, or the Unions singing the praises of the open access office of the Prime Minister. The door appears to remain firmly shut to them.
Which just goes to prove that the Turnbull government is a government by Businessmen, and former Management Consultants, for the Business Community.
Turnbull Inc.
Martha Farquahar
Tell that to Scott Morrison.
Ratsak
Damned if I can see the similarity between Gillard’s govt and Mal’s.
But then, I’m not an ‘insider’.
The lingering existence of a few ‘Trump’s closing’ stories, is basically the same old trying to make a forgone conclusion look slightly interesting rubbish.
We saw the same when Hillary had Bernie beaten by Super Tuesday. It was all over red rover, but right until the end people were trying to manufacture a way that Sanders could pull off a coup. Even talk of the super-delegates maybe abandoning Clinton at the convention. It was all rubbish. Whatever minor stumbles Hillary had on the way that were latched on to make the horse race interesting were never near enough to actually make the race close.
And Sanders was waaay closer to beating Clinton than Trump is.
I find it interesting that Clinton is underestimated actually. I’m sure if she was a he she’d be seen as one of the most dominant political talents of the last 20 years. The only real contest she’s lost was the 2008 primary and she ran very close to THE dominant politician of the last 20 years. Clinton would have beaten just about anyone the Repubs put up (and certainly any of the options they realistically had). The way she has picked apart Trump, when 16 Republican candidates couldn’t lay a glove on him has been a masterclass. It’s too easy to say, yeah but Trump is Trump. He won the nomination and there were plenty in the party who were trying to prevent that. I’ve no doubt whoever the Republicans put up Clinton and her team would have identified and zeroed in on the weak spot to see off the challenge fairly easily (even if there were plenty of voices calling a tight race). She really is, despite all the haters, that good.
daretotread @ #29 Friday, October 28, 2016 at 9:17 am
You appear to just pull arbitrary numbers out of somewhere to support your case.
You can do all the pseudo scientific calculations you like on such numbers but it does not make your results any better than the assumptions on which they are based.
Bemused
I would agree. Turnbull has stated no money for Metro Rail if South Yarra not included in plan
There were posters up around the MCG re this issue.
Making up numbers and adding them together is not analysis.
random.org goes where others fear to tread…
lizzie @ #34 Friday, October 28, 2016 at 9:31 am
I actually think that interchange and any other possible interchange are a good idea unless there are extreme difficulties.
I think Andrews should agree subject to the Feds picking up the entire bill for it.
That puts the ball back in their court.
martha farquahar @ #33 Friday, October 28, 2016 at 9:27 am
You beat me to it and were more succinct. Well done. 😆
ratsak
Couldn’t agree more.
All the threats of civil unrest when Clinton wins are rubbish. Trump’s supporters are all like him, full of it.
Yesterday’s Mumble. He states that the overwhelming evidence is that Clinton will win convincingly.
http://insidestory.org.au/trumps-ragged-army
Martha
Actually it is exactly what the whole Risk Assessment methodology is all about. I suggest you read up a little on it.
Every person/company/nation etc may differ in their numbers because they have different preferences, but the whole point is that each individual analyses rationally their own estimates of risk and takes steps to address their issues.
For example within a family one person may have an extreme fear of being eaten by a shark, another an extreme fear of snakes. Their assessment of the consequences of swimming and bush walking may differ and probably their subjective assessment of the likelihood of an event will also differ. So the person scared of sharks may rate the consequences of being eaten as 10 and being bitten as 5 even though both may well kill you. It is the horror factor. They may overestimate the likelihood of being eaten assessing it as say an unlikely rather than a rare event (say score 2 not 1) (using multiplication method for numbers, but addition of a matrix are also used or a tie line). They give a score of 20 for shark attack. The other family member may only five it a 5.
By contrast for bushwaking our shark fearer may rate snake at 5 and chances at 1 to give 5 and our snake afraid person may assess the likelihood at 2 ad the fear at say 6 to give 12.
I have no time just now, but the whole point of rislk analysis is to push towards mitigating risk. it does not matter what the numbers are as much as them being comparable to one another IF you make changes. So not going into the surf, or never swimmiung at dusk, or snake garters and bandages are rik minimsation strategies.
Abbott/Turnbull is scarily similar to Rudd/Gillard.
DTT
The problem with your “method” is not only that it is subjective and arbitrary, but it also fails to take into account that while Clinton may be quite predictable, Trump is totally erratic – so the likelihood of any event occurring if he were president is just about impossible to estimate. So you really can’t compare the two, except to say that the likelihood of disaster is probably higher under Trump – economic disaster almost certainly higher, social disaster very likely higher, military disaster quite likely higher.
Davidwh:
Except Gillard is way more competent than Turnbull.
DTT
The key thing if you want to share the results of this kind of analysis would be to have some rational basis for the numbers that you use. Otherwise it seems, to borrow a phrase from PK, like embarrasingly juvenile and disingenuous flimflam.