BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Another week with no discernible change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, outside of a further dip in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.

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This week’s supplementary news bites all relate to the legal issues surrounding eligibility to sit in parliament, in each case involving minor party or independent MPs.

• After announcing he would resign from the Senate following the collapse of his housing construction group, Bob Day has indicated he might yet hang on if a deal for an investor to save the business comes through. However, authorities on such matters cited in media reports say the fact that his companies are in the hands of liquidators mean there is little chance of that happening. At the very least, Day is insisting on remaining in the Senate until the end of the year, saying in a statement that “marriage plebiscite legislation, ABCC and our other work is too important to Family First to have a vacant seat for even one day in November”. Fairfax reports that unions are “considering their options” with respect to a legal challenge to Day’s right to sit in the Senate given his financial position, but as Bernard Keane of Crikey explains, a court would need to determine Day was insolvent before section 44(iii) of the Constitution would have legal force.

• Western Australia’s One Nation Senator, Rod Culleton, has dodged one bullet after a court in New South Wales did not record a conviction against him after he pleaded guilty to larceny. This related to an incident in which he removed the keys from the ignition of a tow truck whose driver was attempting to repossess a car he was leasing and threw them into a ditch. He thus eludes, for now, the reach of section 44(ii), by which one may not a hold a seat if one is “convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer”. However, two further obstacles lie ahead: a creditor’s petition that threatens him with bankruptcy, on which a court hearing is set for November 21; and another charge relating to an incident in which he surrounded a car being used by receivers foreclosing on his Western Australian rural property with hay bales to prevent them from leaving. This allegedly amounted to theft of the car, and requires him to face court in March.

• In the Northern Territory, the Electoral Commission has begun proceedings against the election of Yolngu leader Yingiya Mark Guyula, who won the seat of Nhulunbuy as an independent at the August 27 Northern Territory election from Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker by a margin of eight votes. It now emerges that Guyula was serving on the Milingimbi Community Advisory Board, for which he was paid all of $482 in allowances for attending four meetings. There does not appear to be much doubt that this is sufficient to trigger a prohibition on persons holding public office from running for election. The NTEC’s action comes after the Guyula’s difficulty was reported on a fortnight ago by the Northern Territory News. In the view of Ken Parish, a former Labor MP and now Darwin legal academic and stalwart of the Australian blogosphere (who signed Guyula’s statement of reply as a witness), the leak was almost certainly the work of Labor, which has a “distinctly inexperienced” front bench that “badly needs the services” of Walker. The most likely outcome would seem to be the voiding of the result and a by-election, at which Guyula would presumably be free to run if he divested himself of the position.

• Guyula’s difficulty relates to a section of the Northern Territory self-government act that echoes section 44(iv) of the Constitution, which applies to anyone who “holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth”, other than ministers and military officers. This resulted in the voiding of the election of independent Phil Cleary at the Wills by-election of 1992 and Liberal member Jackie Kelly in the seat of Lindsay at the 1996 election, both of whom were subsequently re-elected. A parliamentary inquiry in 1998 recommended that this section of the Constitution be removed through a referendum on the basis that it was “uncertain and unfair” in the modern context, and that the relevant objectives could be better served through less restrictive measures determined by the parliament.

• Former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley has made a submission to the parliamentary inquiry into the recent federal election, in which he suggests a disclosure scheme to handle another constitutional prohibition on election candidates: this one relating to foreign citizens or those “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power”, as per section 44(i). This was used to overturn the election of One Nation’s Heather Hill to a Queensland Senate seat in 1998 on the grounds that she held dual citizenship. There were some who queried whether Tony Abbott had duly renounced his British citizenship when he first ran for parliament in 1994, or at any point thereafter. Maley argues that the status of citizenship is more difficult to determine that matters relating to solvency, convictions and the holding of public office, and that the best solution is to require candidates not born in Australia to provide “a complete statement of the facts on which he or she wished to rely to establish the absence of any relevant disqualification under section 44(i) of the Constitution, along with copies of any supporting documents providing evidence relevant to the issue”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. [Bob Day resigns, effective immediately!]

    I suppose we’ll find out if his conscience got the better of him or his position became untenable due to his shonky business dealings or the $2m his ‘college’ received from the government.

  2. Day must have realised that, after the training college story, he just could not vote, and the Govt could not accept his vote.

    Precisely. Today’s news just has far too much of the stench of an out and out bribe for him to hang on. Once again this government proves itself to be worse than it’s critics give it credit for.

  4. The $1.84m grant to the college he sponsors to train apprentices, provided by Simon Birmingham without a tender process is now (taxpayer funded) payola wasted.

    I hadn’t picked that up (blame my broadband failure) but isn’t that known as corruption?

  5. No, I dont believe it. No way Turnbull will put Abbott into FA. I cant see how even Murphy could defend that one. Trunchbulls credibility may have already walked out the door but that appointment would be slamming the door shut and then it falling down 5 flights of stairs.

  7. Seven days notice required for a SA Parliament joint sitting, which is what is needed to appoint a new senator. Firstly, Family First need to nominate a candidate.

  11. Fess

    Silly question, but Can Day direct who his replacement his in light of his insolvency? Frankly, Day should not be allowed to decide anything considering he probably had no right to stand at the election in July. Everything surrounding him stinks absolutely to high heaven. labor should not let this whole thing go. Day and the govt are up to their necks in mud

  19. Tony Abbott to Foreign Affairs

    Someone, somewhere has a wicked sense of humour.

    Plus, Julie Bishop as AG, directly opposite Mark Dreyfus!?!

    A wicked, wicked sense of humour.

  20. Vic:

    Day’s been trying to direct the selection of his replacement but I’m not sure how successful his endeavours have been. SA PBers might know more.

  23. When Family First nominates a replacement for Day, it will be interesting to see whether Day influences the choice or or more moderate (if any) voices prevail.

  28. Crikey, Oct.18

    The father of five had been a Family First candidate in the July election, but he pulled out before polling day.

    Lambert, however, is famous for more than his role in Day’s office. When working for South Australian Family First MP Robert Brokenshire, he came into possession of the pay details of the ABC’s top journalists after they were accidentally sent to Brokenshire in a response to an FOI request. Brokenshire himself said he had never wanted the information to go anywhere, but his staffer at that point, Lambert, sent it to a South Australian reporter at the Oz. The scoop embarrassed the ABC and caused no end of internal strife. When the truth of how the data ended up at the paper came out, Lambert was suspended from his role as a media and policy adviser in Brokenshire’s office, though only for a day and on full pay. The “mistake”, as Brokenshire called it, doesn’t seem to have harmed his career much.

  29. Imagine what Labor will do with the $2 Million gift to Bob ‘Trickle Down, Piss On, Economics’ Day in the next session of parliament?

    Did the Treasurer approve the payment?

    Did the Prime Minister approve the payment?

    Did the Finance Minister approve the payment?

    Did the Leader of the Government in the Senate approve the payment?

    Did the Cabinet Secretary know of (probably can’t remember) the payment and give it his tick of approval as we were just told he does to all the Cabinet submissions these days?

    Did the rest of Cabinet approve of the payment when Simon Birmingham brought it to them for approval?

  30. [Abbott for indigenous affairs says Sky News if he comes back to cabinet.]

    Abbott could become Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Lycra and Budgie Smuggling

  32. Rowan retweeted
    Bill Shorten
    17m17 minutes ago
    Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp
    Not as worried about Bob Day’s future as I am about the hundreds of families and contractors who’ve been ripped off by his companies.

  40. SPROCKET – I assume that all the SA Parliament will need is a quorum. Most MPs will be given pairs. This stinks of Day trying to get Lambert into Parliament ASAP.

  42. Now I may be PBs resident cassandra, but I am sure most of you will agree that if Abbott were Minister for FA we should go and dig shelters and stock up on baked beans,.

    It would not matter if it were Hillary, trump or Ghandi as US president, Abbott might start a conflict all by himself. Australia invades Russia and US forced to come to our aid.
    Any even though Australia may be on no strategic significance we would find a few lobbed our way just because!!!!!
    🙂

  43. [Simon Katich
    Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 12:07 pm
    I am not convinced Lambert is the nominated appointee. Maybe Day assumes he has the numbers? Reports I see are that Lambert is just putting his hand up.
    It could even be Lucy Gichuhi….a black female lawyer from Kenya….
    https://www.facebook.com/LucyGichuhi2016/%5D

    Her Facebook page suggests she is from the religious side of FF. If she is genuine, she should be aghast at Day’s behaviour. It would be interesting to know what proportion of FF members hold genuine (if misguided) views and what proportion are RWNJs.

  49. I don’t think the ministry for indigenous affairs is in cabinet probably not ‘senior’ enough for our self proclaimed party elder.

  50. daretotread @ #1692 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    Now I may be PBs resident cassandra, but I am sure most of you will agree that if Abbott were Minister for FA we should go and dig shelters and stock up on baked beans,.
    It would not matter if it were Hillary, trump or Ghandi as US president, Abbott might start a conflict all by himself. Australia invades Russia and US forced to come to our aid.
    Any even though Australia may be on no strategic significance we would find a few lobbed our way just because!!!!!
    🙂

    Are you determined to make sure no-one takes anything you post seriously?

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