BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Another week with no discernible change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, outside of a further dip in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.

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This week’s supplementary news bites all relate to the legal issues surrounding eligibility to sit in parliament, in each case involving minor party or independent MPs.

• After announcing he would resign from the Senate following the collapse of his housing construction group, Bob Day has indicated he might yet hang on if a deal for an investor to save the business comes through. However, authorities on such matters cited in media reports say the fact that his companies are in the hands of liquidators mean there is little chance of that happening. At the very least, Day is insisting on remaining in the Senate until the end of the year, saying in a statement that “marriage plebiscite legislation, ABCC and our other work is too important to Family First to have a vacant seat for even one day in November”. Fairfax reports that unions are “considering their options” with respect to a legal challenge to Day’s right to sit in the Senate given his financial position, but as Bernard Keane of Crikey explains, a court would need to determine Day was insolvent before section 44(iii) of the Constitution would have legal force.

• Western Australia’s One Nation Senator, Rod Culleton, has dodged one bullet after a court in New South Wales did not record a conviction against him after he pleaded guilty to larceny. This related to an incident in which he removed the keys from the ignition of a tow truck whose driver was attempting to repossess a car he was leasing and threw them into a ditch. He thus eludes, for now, the reach of section 44(ii), by which one may not a hold a seat if one is “convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer”. However, two further obstacles lie ahead: a creditor’s petition that threatens him with bankruptcy, on which a court hearing is set for November 21; and another charge relating to an incident in which he surrounded a car being used by receivers foreclosing on his Western Australian rural property with hay bales to prevent them from leaving. This allegedly amounted to theft of the car, and requires him to face court in March.

• In the Northern Territory, the Electoral Commission has begun proceedings against the election of Yolngu leader Yingiya Mark Guyula, who won the seat of Nhulunbuy as an independent at the August 27 Northern Territory election from Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker by a margin of eight votes. It now emerges that Guyula was serving on the Milingimbi Community Advisory Board, for which he was paid all of $482 in allowances for attending four meetings. There does not appear to be much doubt that this is sufficient to trigger a prohibition on persons holding public office from running for election. The NTEC’s action comes after the Guyula’s difficulty was reported on a fortnight ago by the Northern Territory News. In the view of Ken Parish, a former Labor MP and now Darwin legal academic and stalwart of the Australian blogosphere (who signed Guyula’s statement of reply as a witness), the leak was almost certainly the work of Labor, which has a “distinctly inexperienced” front bench that “badly needs the services” of Walker. The most likely outcome would seem to be the voiding of the result and a by-election, at which Guyula would presumably be free to run if he divested himself of the position.

• Guyula’s difficulty relates to a section of the Northern Territory self-government act that echoes section 44(iv) of the Constitution, which applies to anyone who “holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth”, other than ministers and military officers. This resulted in the voiding of the election of independent Phil Cleary at the Wills by-election of 1992 and Liberal member Jackie Kelly in the seat of Lindsay at the 1996 election, both of whom were subsequently re-elected. A parliamentary inquiry in 1998 recommended that this section of the Constitution be removed through a referendum on the basis that it was “uncertain and unfair” in the modern context, and that the relevant objectives could be better served through less restrictive measures determined by the parliament.

• Former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley has made a submission to the parliamentary inquiry into the recent federal election, in which he suggests a disclosure scheme to handle another constitutional prohibition on election candidates: this one relating to foreign citizens or those “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power”, as per section 44(i). This was used to overturn the election of One Nation’s Heather Hill to a Queensland Senate seat in 1998 on the grounds that she held dual citizenship. There were some who queried whether Tony Abbott had duly renounced his British citizenship when he first ran for parliament in 1994, or at any point thereafter. Maley argues that the status of citizenship is more difficult to determine that matters relating to solvency, convictions and the holding of public office, and that the best solution is to require candidates not born in Australia to provide “a complete statement of the facts on which he or she wished to rely to establish the absence of any relevant disqualification under section 44(i) of the Constitution, along with copies of any supporting documents providing evidence relevant to the issue”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. Sky News Australia
    1h1 hour ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@MThistlethwaite says @TurnbullMalcolm can easily answer all the questions in the @AndrewRobbAO controversy #auspol http://snpy.tv/2egbLAV

    Sky News Australia
    1h1 hour ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@StevenCiobo says many criticisms of the Port of Darwin lease are examples of uninformed ‘mudslinging’ #auspol http://snpy.tv/2ega2eG

  2. Bemused,
    These days I perceive very little difference between Catholics and non-Catholics.
    The old sectarian divide was on its last legs when I was a boy.

    The same cannot be said for those on the Labor front bench who perceive themselves as Catholics.

  3. StevenCiobo says many criticisms of the Port of Darwin lease are examples of uninformed ‘mudslinging’

    I guess he’d know. He’s the expert.

  4. ** How many donations do the guardian think they will get with Katherine Murphy as their political editor? **
    The Guardian wants some access to the PMO. Think of her articles as diplomacy.

  5. lizzie @ #1585 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 9:46 am

    A word I would not normally use is “crap”. But I can’t think of a better one.

    Tom McIlroy Verified account 
    ‏@TomMcIlroy
    Malcolm Turnbull says the voices of 1200 people who drowned at sea in the Labor years aren’t being heard. #auspol

    How about ‘criminal fraud’?
    some things require two words.

  6. Ab

    This is utterly irrational. Rational people can expect that a corrupt politician may steal money for himself. They can even expect that he may steal for his family. But no one can expect that a corrupt politician would steal money for a daughter of a fucking psychic who claimed to speak with her dead mother.

    😆

  7. Back in the day, working out in Mudgee shortly after graduating and was able to grow a proper beard I was quite shocked to find it red. The red has grown out now but the wranger gene is in there somewhere.

  8. simon katich @ #1590 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 9:52 am

    I bet Sanders is wishing he wasnt ‘tired of hearing about Clintons Emails’ during the Dem debates.
    Speaking of which. Where is Colton?

    That’s assuming that power is more important than policy. The one thing that Sanders stood for was policy over the shit that passes for it in the USA.

  9. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says contentious changes to visa laws are not aimed at refugees or asylum seekers already in Australia, but has not ruled out that some may be deported.

    Backdated to 1788. 😈

  10. Bemused,
    Really?
    Must be a NSW phenomena.

    Yes. Really. Do you find it that hard to understand people who are religious?

    I would also add that it’s not simply or simplistically, ‘a NSW phenomena’. You find it, without having to look very hard, in political parties in every State and Territory of Australia, and all over the world.

  11. ctar1 @ #1611 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Ab

    This is utterly irrational. Rational people can expect that a corrupt politician may steal money for himself. They can even expect that he may steal for his family. But no one can expect that a corrupt politician would steal money for a daughter of a fucking psychic who claimed to speak with her dead mother.

    Forgive my ignorance please. What is this about? 🙂

  12. “Interesting though how the Liberals never inform as to why the criticisms are ‘uninformed’. They just are.

    It’s all in the L/NP – Murdoch dictionary:

    Uninformed a. Any statement that is critical of conservative / right wing politics, positions or principles, or of any interests supportive of them.

  13. It occurred to me this morning that Comey reminded me of John Kerr. A weak person driven by ego and fear of criticism and the need to do something, when doing nothing was the best option.

  14. kayjay @ #1617 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:38 am

    ctar1 @ #1611 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Ab

    This is utterly irrational. Rational people can expect that a corrupt politician may steal money for himself. They can even expect that he may steal for his family. But no one can expect that a corrupt politician would steal money for a daughter of a fucking psychic who claimed to speak with her dead mother.

    Forgive my ignorance please. What is this about? 🙂

    The President of South Korea

  15. Governments and Ministers are no more responsible for the drownings of asylum seekers at sea than they are for the deaths of those who choose to pursue dangerous activities like rock fishing or motor racing because of the Government’s “failure” to ban these activities.

  16. c@tmomma @ #1616 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:33 am

    Bemused,
    Really?
    Must be a NSW phenomena.

    Yes. Really. Do you find it that hard to understand people who are religious?
    I would also add that it’s not simply or simplistically, ‘a NSW phenomena’. You find it, without having to look very hard, in political parties in every State and Territory of Australia, and all over the world.

    Not very noticeable in Victoria.
    Our Premier is a Catholic but seems to hold similar views to most of his team and me for that matter. I have never perceived it as much of an issue in Victoria.

  17. ** What is power without policy? Answer: Abbott and Turnbull **
    You have clouded my thought bringing up dunderheads like that. I forget what my point is now.

  18. CTar1
    #1626 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:53 am
    TPOF
    #1623 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:49 am
    Thank you. I had thought of checking the tea leaves but as I am a coffee (and cherry cheer) drinker would probably have no success. I go now to a far, far better place to ponder the link in question. 😎

  19. The drums are beating for an accomodation with Tony Abbott, offered a cabinet seat. But who will fall on their sword to make a vacancy?

    Tip is George Brandis to High Commissioner in UK
    Julie Bishop to Attorney General
    Tony Abbott to Foreign Affairs

    You heard it here first

  20. Bob Day just resigned … what does this mean for Turnbull’s ABCC plans? They’re going to be down one senator until next year?

  21. Making one of the most partisan members of your party as Minister for FA would fit the script of this bunch of Tory delinquents.

  22. Sprocket_

    I’m closing my ears to such frightening postings.
    JulieB would probably do as she is told by her Dept, but we cannot allow TA to be let loose on a world which already has quite enough potential wars on its hands.

  23. I struggle with this:

    Governments and Ministers are no more responsible for the drownings of asylum seekers at sea than they are for the deaths of those who choose to pursue dangerous activities like rock fishing or motor racing because of the Government’s “failure” to ban these activities.

    Not so sure of that.

    If your policy is basically, “Get yourselves over here – it’s your business how you do that – and we’ll process you ahead of everyone else in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere” then you have to shoulder at least some blame for people who drown offshore in boats trying to get to Xmas Island.

    “How much blame?” is the key question.

  24. **They’re going to be down one senator until next year?**
    Didnt Jay W offer to sort out a replacement toot sweet?
    He may well find some very good, previously unknown, reason to delay.

  25. sprocket_ @ #1630 Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 11:01 am

    The drums are beating for an accomodation with Tony Abbott, offered a cabinet seat. But who will fall on their sword to make a vacancy?
    Tip is George Brandis to High Commissioner in UK
    Julie Bishop to Attorney General
    Tony Abbott to Foreign Affairs
    You heard it here first

    At last I see it! We are living inside a Marvel comic.I had thought that the rules of Bizarro world applies and Mr. Mxyzptlk had taken over the government.
    But no, all is serene. Mr. Dutton is not a complete Fwit at all. Julie Bishop would never contemplate lilterally (the new figuratively) stabbing a colleague in the back. Mr. Abbot really is hying off to a monastery and Mr. Malcolm B. Turnbull is a 3D projection.
    So, dear friends and neighbours and members of the garden club, blub, glug, (drowning in bullshit noises) glug.

  26. Well well well.

    Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    8m8 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING: Family First Senator Bob Day has presented his letter of resignation to the President of the Senate, effective immediately.

  27. Tony Abbott to Foreign Affairs

    To make a ‘pair’ with Boris……or to make Boris look like a star.

    But I doubt if abbott would even pretend to be ‘diplomatic’ on his best day?

    Or that mesma would yield ‘her’ job for that matter, let alone turnbull bring abbott back – unless him remaining PM was seriously threatened.

  28. Day must have realised that, after the training college story, he just could not vote, and the Govt could not accept his vote.

  29. This is looking more and more like Rudd-Gillard-Rudd, right down to appointing Abbott to Foreign Affairs.

    We have close to a hung parliament (Susan Ley’s comments last night on Q&A re. parliamentary attendance rules were on point), a dodgy member of Parliament with a key vote, and of course the musical chairs aspect.

  30. Hope the screen door smacks Bob Day on the arse as he exits in disgrace.

    The $1.84m grant to the college he sponsors to train apprentices, provided by Simon Birmingham without a tender process is now (taxpayer funded) payola wasted.

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