Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. How does the ABC report today’s Brandis senate hearing?

    They don’t – at least not on PM.
    Just imagine if this were Labor etc etc.

  2. Rummel,
    Did you listen to PM to conclude they had a line up of lefty stories?
    Really?
    Now covering the inquest on Hughes.
    How is that a lefty story?

  3. lizzie

    [That Sophy barrister very keen to “respect” Brandis]

    Agree, wants to keep the whole grubby matter behind closed doors.

  4. Monica Lynagh

    [Smile] I’m stirring Adrian up and did not listen to PM. Adrian is just on a crusade that the ABC is not left enough already and should become the CBC.

    The Brandis story has been all over ABC radio. Hence my unease about the issue because I listened to the story on the ABC.

  5. Pascal Grosvenor ‏@pascalg15 · Oct 12

    I’m away from twitter for a day and Pauline Hanson gets appointed to the #NBN Senate committee…
    WTF is going on ? Please explain

  6. Rummel

    Adrian doesn’t require the ABC to be more “lefty”. He wants more balanced reporting of all views (and not the ABC’s idea of balanced).

  7. Mentioned earlier I can reccomend Gil Scott Heron
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gil_Scott-Heron
    A black American spoken word poet. He came notice here in 2JJ for ‘The Revolution will not be Televised’ in I think, the late 70s.
    He then recorded again in the 90s and 00s with excellent searing , but always listeneable songs and, or poems.
    If Dylan started 20-30 years later I think he might have been a spoken word poet.

  8. In preparation for my recent trip to Vietnam, and expected long plane flights I downloaded several albums onto my iPad from Apple Music. Remarkably, my selection included Volumes 1,2 and 3 of Bob Dylan’s Greatest hits, along with more contemporary artists like Seth Sentry and Flume.

    What really struck me in Dylan’s back catalog was how many of his songs had been hits as covers, whilst his originals were raw as, but authentic. I think of If Not For You (Olivia NJ), The Might Quinn (Manfred Mann), All Along The Watchtower (Hendrix), I Shall Be Released (multiple artists) and many, many more. Some simple songs like Girl From The North Country are exquisitley constructed.
    So as an influence on modern music, Bob Dylan is worthy of the Nobel Prize.

  9. “I’m away from twitter for a day and Pauline Hanson gets appointed to the #NBN Senate committee…
    WTF is going on ? Please explain”

    As the guy on the drum mentioned. The under 40’s males, who are gamers, who are typically hard to reach are really into fast internet and gaming. As am I. It’s a vote changer for many under 40 males. It may be shallow, but, hospitals be damned. Give them fast internet and they are yours…. Hanson seems to have worked this out. Poisoned chalice, though. In my view and experience, a lot of young males have withdrawn from the normal world most of you know. They now exist I male-dominated worlds online where sexist and misogynist (locker room talk) views are an hourly experience. They love it, they want more of it and the NBN provides a better experience that is free from the normal social bounds for which people are now bound… Hanson wants a political slice.

  10. Rummel,
    as Lizzie says, Adrian, like most of us, would just rather the ABC stayed true to its charter, rather than their interpretation of what this means.
    However, apart from giving Adrian a stir, just what do you base your assertion on that the ABC is a vast lefty propaganda machine? Or is that just another stir?
    BTW, how’s your mates family going after he died?

  11. Apologies, they had a report towards the end, but it was no more than a typical he said/she said ABC report, totally ignoring the core issues of potentially misleading the parliament and Brandis issuing an unlawful direction according to Gleeson.

    Absolutely hopeless reporting.

  12. S
    ‘So as an influence on modern music, Bob Dylan is worthy of the Nobel Prize.’
    All this may be true, but there is no Nobel Prize for Influence on Modern Music.

  13. lizzie,
    glad you got through the storm and aftermath. It was pretty wild here, but nothing like you copped and note no blathering about reliance on renewables in the reporting!

  14. Lizzie

    “Thanks for that view into your world.”

    Please note: I enjoy gaming, but, even I am shocked at some of the things I hear and condemn it whole heartedly. Shit! If you think Abbott is a misogynist, well he looks like a saint compared to online areas. I am also worried as my Son is moving on-line and I am under no illusions of the hate and violence he is being exposed too without my knowledge. Hence my long term campaign about right/wrong/criminality and how that makes people feel in the real world. Simple parenting, yes. But needed more than ever.
    The NBN also create issues with on-line gaming that I did not think about before. With slow internet gaming you were really restricted to gaming within AUS/NZ and the culture and people are really the same. There was incursions from overseas gamers with fast internet but now Aussies are able to game right around the world and it’s quite the blending of hate at times. The other night I was exposed to some epic Koren misogynistic views. Also, I did not know how much the Koreans and Japanese hate each other lol. Apparently a lot.

  15. a r @ #2068 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 7:13 pm

    So the problems with Kitching are that 1) she has past ties to the HSU, and 2) people don’t like her husband?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shorten-has-erred-in-backing-new-senator-kimberley-kitching-20161014-gs2l6n
    Them seems 1) overblown, and 2) irrelevant. Is there a problem with her that you can get to without invoking “guilty by association”?

    Rather than look at it that way, tell us what are the positive qualities that earned her the gig?
    I suspect you won’t come up with any. Or very little.

  16. BW

    Obviously the Nobel Commitee are sick of being known as old farts. How much publicity have they got over choosing Bob Dylan? I reckon Kanye West next year.

  17. Windhover

    Your blog name sort of wandered round my memory banks and then the synapse happened:

    I caught this morning morning’s minion, king-
    dom of daylight’s dauphin, dapple-dawn-drawn Falcon, in his riding
    Of the rolling level underneath him steady air, and striding
    High there, how he rung upon the rein of a wimpling wing
    In his ecstasy! then off, off forth on swing,
    As a skate’s heel sweeps smooth on a bow-bend: the hurl and gliding
    Rebuffed the big wind. My heart in hiding
    Stirred for a bird, – the achieve of, the mastery of the thing!

    Brute beauty and valour and act, oh, air, pride, plume, here
    Buckle! AND the fire that breaks from thee then, a billion
    Times told lovelier, more dangerous, O my chevalier!

    No wonder of it: shéer plód makes plough down sillion
    Shine, and blue-bleak embers, ah my dear,
    Fall, gall themselves, and gash gold-vermilion.

  18. Apologies, they had a report towards the end, but it was no more than a typical he said/she said ABC report

    If a Liberal government disagrees with someone, it becomes ipso facto a political argument, qualifying for “He-said/She-said” coverage.

    If, for example, Malcolm Turnbull declared: “The Earth is flat”, and Labor said “That’s ridiculous”, then the ABC would cover it as a political stoush. Sure, they would get someone from Catalyst in to marshall evidence that the Earth is not flat, but then some bod from the conservative back benches would point out that Catalyst reportage is not without controversy itself.

    It would pretty-soon become a second-order battle between the ABC reporter and “the Twitterati”, then progress to a discussion of Fourth Estate philosophy. Katharine Murphy would chime in with one of her “essays” and the bootstrap would be complete.

    Then the ABC could cover the story as if they had nothing to do with it.

    Finally a real politik, hard-nosed CPG talking head – while almost proudly giggling that he has no understanding of the technical issues surrounding the flatness or curvature of the Earth – would dismiss the whole thing as a storm in a teacup, and a product of rampant Labor opportunism.

    If we’re lucky there might even be bonus points for a story suggesting that it was all Bill Shorten’s fault, because his leadership is in dire straits, with Albo stalking in the background, despite Labor rules completely prohibiting such stalking. The journos hanker for the good old days where Simon Crean gives a presser in the morning, and there’s a spill that afternoon. Can’t happen anymore, but hey… dare to dream!

  19. This to me is one of the classics to come out today.

    The solicitor general, Justin Gleeson, has revealed he has ignored George Brandis’s direction to seek consent before giving legal advice because he regards it as invalid.

    In May, Brandis issued an order requiring the solicitor general’s advice to go through his office first. In a parliamentary committee hearing on Friday, Gleeson labelled it a “radical change in practice” that made his role “exceptionally difficult” and caused him to “lie awake at night”.

    Gleeson said he had decided to ignore the direction in order to give urgent legal advice about the composition of the Senate, sought from him this week.

    So Gleeson’s legal opinion is that the direction is legally flawed.

    Maybe if Brandis talked and listened to his SG he might not f*$& up legal meters so often.

  20. Look at the way Hopkins breaks ‘kingdom’ into two, just so that he can fit in with the rhyming pattern….sort of exactly the same thing Boer castigated Dylan for…

  21. tell us what are the positive qualities that earned her the gig?
    I suspect you won’t come up with any.

    You’re right about that. I’d never heard of her until everyone was slamming Shorten for supporting her. I don’t see what make her any better or any worse than any other political candidate that I’ve never heard about.

  22. Bemused

    Rather than look at it that way, tell us what are the positive qualities that earned her the gig?
    I suspect you won’t come up with any. Or very little.

    Two thirds of the Senate are just that.

  23. I followed the Senate Inquiry on the guardian today and was struck by what an incompetent Brandis is, bloviating and obfuscating, 40 minutes of eye glazing time wasting waffle.
    He was right on the point that it was a waste of time and money, but omitted to note it was due to him.
    No doubt he’ll survive due to Turnbull’s precarious position as leader.

  24. a r @ #2084 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 7:32 pm

    tell us what are the positive qualities that earned her the gig?
    I suspect you won’t come up with any.
    You’re right about that. I’d never heard of her until everyone was slamming Shorten for supporting her. I don’t see what make her any better or any worse than any other political candidate that I’ve never heard about.

    Her achievements are very modest.
    She was castigate for evidence that was not believed by a Fair Work Commissioner.
    Does the ALP need yet another lawyer in Parliament?
    There were much better contenders but she did not win on her merits but a stitch up, a factional deal.

  25. Bemused

    Well Brandis did not come out of that at all well.
    But Adrian will spin it to be shocking ABC bias.

    It seems to be the ‘in’ thing for the MSN to be pro-Gleeson.

  26. Rummel,
    If you are talking about inhabiting reddit or 4chan boards(the source of ‘Gamergate’), then I wouldn’t be talking them up as exemplars of the sort of conversations the gaming community gets up to. They are populated, to a very great extent, by the sort of unreconstructed sexists that Trump appeals to. Only with acne.

  27. I’m back again (pace Bemused) after a tedious day in Bairnsdale, and an hour reading blogs.
    1) I think Dylan is a great poet, because he encapsulates emotions in memorable language. It don’t make no difference if he uses double negatives, despite the vapourings of sophistical grammarians, who I don’t pay no attention to.
    2) the Nobel Prize is meaningless, when you consider the flawed awards that have been given. Eg The prize for discovering insulin being shared by Banting and the Lab chief who had tried to shut the research down, while the colleague who did the work got no recognition; Mme Curie only got the first of hers when her husband refused to accept it without her; Henry Kissinger got a Peace Prize for God’s Sake.
    3 Churchill was a great writer, although an unreliable historian. He said : “History will be kind to me , because I will write the history”, or words to that effect. Australians have very little to thank him for, IMO
    4 A lot of people are worried by KK becoming a Senator, after a perfectly normal process, and are unloading on Shorten! In the words of Lou Richards, “winners are grinners, losers can please themselves!” BTW, ‘Go the doggies!’
    4) The only way progressives can lose the next election is if we tear ourselves apart. If we insist on ‘exactly what we want, or nothing’, nothing is what we’ll get. We don’t have a republic!
    5 For what it’s worth , I don’t think Scotland will get another Plebiscite! The Poms are probably sick of them (plebiscites that is, although probably the Scots as well!)!

  28. Well Brandis did not come out of that at all well.
    But Adrian will spin it to be shocking ABC bias.

    Poetry is the distillation of human understanding and emotion in a few words.

    Bemused is a dropkick.

    (that’s my effort)

  29. gippslander @ #2093 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 7:54 pm

    I’m back again (pace Bemused) after a tedious day in Bairnsdale, and an hour reading blogs.
    1) I think Dylan is a great poet, because he encapsulates emotions in memorable language. It don’t make no difference if he uses double negatives, despite the vapourings of sophistical grammarians, who I don’t pay no attention to.
    2) the Nobel Prize is meaningless, when you consider the flawed awards that have been given. Eg The prize for discovering insulin being shared by Banting and the Lab chief who had tried to shut the research down, while the colleague who did the work got no recognition; Mme Curie only got the first of hers when her husband refused to accept it without her; Henry Kissinger got a Peace Prize for God’s Sake.
    3 Churchill was a great writer, although an unreliable historian. He said : “History will be kind to me , because I will write the history”, or words to that effect. Australians have very little to thank him for, IMO
    4 A lot of people are worried by KK becoming a Senator, after a perfectly normal process, and are unloading on Shorten! In the words of Lou Richards, “winners are grinners, losers can please themselves!” BTW, ‘Go the doggies!’
    4) The only way progressives can lose the next election is if we tear ourselves apart. If we insist on ‘exactly what we want, or nothing’, nothing is what we’ll get. We don’t have a republic!
    5 For what it’s worth , I don’t think Scotland will get another Plebiscite! The Poms are probably sick of them (plebiscites that is, although probably the Scots as well!)!

    Nice town Bairnsdale, I have visited a few times.
    I am surprised you are so sanguine about the selection of KK and regard the process as ‘normal’.
    It is ‘normal’ in the sense it is how things tend to happen, but it is not ‘normal’ in the sense of how things are supposed to happen and what would better represent the choice of ALP members.
    BTW, who was the draft dodger you mentioned in Hotham?
    Only person I recall from those days was Tony Ross but I don’t think he was a draft dodger.

  30. BARNEY – I think that George’s problem is that he’s got too many pretty boys in his office and not enough smart boys.

  31. boomy1 @ #2095 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 8:00 pm

    Well Brandis did not come out of that at all well.
    But Adrian will spin it to be shocking ABC bias.

    Poetry is the distillation of human understanding and emotion in a few words.
    Bemused is a dropkick.
    (that’s my effort)

    If that’s the best you can do by way of insult, you will just have to try a lot harder.

  32. Everyone I speak to about brandis can’t help commenting that he’s a very sick looking puppy. He’s about as popular as Ebola. I think that deep down George obviously doesn’t believing in anything except the acquisition and exercise of power. That’s it. For him, that’s better than sex. That’s why he does totally dumb things like issue this directive just before an election. What a dumb-arse. I bet most of the Senate are laughing their heads off.

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