Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Check the Newspoll chart pdf small print for the full text of what, in my view, is a rather loaded “Are renewable energy targets unrealistic?” question.

    “Question: Some state governments have set their own renewable energy
    targets so that as much as 50% of the state’s electricity will be generated
    from renewable sources in the future. Do you agree with Malcolm
    Turnbull that these state governments are putting the reliability of their
    power supply at risk by setting unrealistic renewable targets? “

  6. LU et al … I try to avoid the Bemused, but when I see him picking on people who did nothing at all to offend him, it sometimes gets my gander up.

    His snipe about the storm that Lizzie was experiencing was not only unnecessary, but also wrong. Hundreds of thousands have lost power and someone was killed. It was a very serious storm. To use Lizzie’s well-founded apprehension about it damaging her person or her home, in order to deliver a cheap put-down was quite obnoxious.

  8. Last week after the Malaysian GP Lewis Hamilton was suggesting that someone might be sabotaging his engines.

    Now in Japan for the Susuka his behavour a ‘bit’ strange:

    Lewis Hamilton: Mercedes accept ‘damaging’ behaviour

    http://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/37599648

    Seems being headed in the championship by his team mate Rosberg doesn’t ‘suit’ him.

  10. His snipe about the storm that Lizzie was experiencing was not only unnecessary, but also wrong.

    He was trying to have a back-handed go at me but ended up looking like a fool for dismissing the severity of the storm. As someone said he must be the dumbest PBer to comment here.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Again the cartoons are few and far between.

    Peter Hartcher goes all the way and says the US would become a “rogue superpower” if Trump were to become president.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/united-states-would-be-a-rogue-superpower-under-trump-analysis-says-20161009-gryb9r.html
    Something doesn’t add up here!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/cabs-in-the-ranks-defence-spends-1-million-a-month-on-taxis-20161007-grx4ww.html
    When will these people EVER learn?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/australian-man-arrested-in-bali-for-allegedly-possessing-hashish-20161009-grydhv.html
    I don’t think this taxation suggestion would sit well with the Coalition!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/increase-property-taxes-to-curb-rising-inequality-thomas-pikettys-first-australian-interview-20161008-gry23l.html
    The Baird government has blown its consulting budget – big time!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/baird-government-blows-its-consulting-budget-20161009-gry8um.html
    Paul McGeough tells how the women in the Republican Party are unloading on Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/i-hate-to-say-it-but-its-over-top-republican-women-turn-on-trump-20161009-gry7yq.html
    The reality is that Trump’s bravado just camouflages his inadequacies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-reality-is-that-trumps-bravado-camouflages-inadequacy-20161009-gry4ka.html
    Donald Trump -Groper-in-chief.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-groper-in-chief-20161009-gry491.html
    The Republican Party is poised to walk away from its own presidential nominee.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-fallout-republican-party-poised-to-walk-away-from-its-own-presidential-nominee-20161009-gry40x.html
    Trump supporters’ most absurd excused for his lewd comments.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/09/watch-trump-supporters-most-absurd-excuses-for-his-lewd-commen/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Why this was the final straw for the Republican Party? Google.
    /news/world/north-america/why-this-donald-trump-embarrassment-was-the-final-straw-for-republicans-20161009-gry93t
    Tim Dick says we have an empathy deficit and we’ll pay the price
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-are-suffering-from-a-massive-empathy-deficit-and-it-will-have-consequences-20161007-grxkwa.html
    Jess Irvine wonder of Australia is listening to the IMF’s call for the restoration of fairm=ness and growth. Jess is not happy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/imf-calls-for-action-to-restore-fairness-and-growth-but-is-australia-listening-20161009-gry3c9.html
    The Turnbull government is blaming the jobless for Australia’s lack of jobs.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-government-blames-jobless-for-no-jobs,9569
    The scourge of workplace bullying that has become too toxic to ignore.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-are-failing-to-deal-with-workplace-bullying-but-its-too-toxic-to-ignore-20161007-grxk6o.html
    This professor of business economics just wants an ACT government that actually works. Fair enough!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/please-can-we-just-have-a-government-that-works-properly-20161007-grx80b.html
    Instead of poking your finger down your throat you can tackle this stuff from Amanda Vanstone.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/labors-stand-on-gay-marriage-is-hypocritical-20161007-grx6n7.html
    A new poll sowing 69% of people are in favour of a direct vote in parliament emboldens Labor to vote against the plebiscite legislation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-to-torpedo-same-sex-marriage-plebiscite-as-new-poll-finds-twothirds-want-vote-in-parliament-20161009-gry84p.html
    If the plebiscite does go ahead it could well have blood on its hands.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/if-the-plebiscite-goes-ahead-the-government-may-well-have-blood-on-its-hands-20161006-grwe4n.html
    Here’s why the other EU countries won’t give the UK an easy deal on its exit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/09/brits-punished-brexit-we-want-fairness
    Many years ago I was a one sixth owner of one of these Lightburn Zeta sedans. We had a lot of fun with it I can tell you. Google.
    /news/south-australia/the-lightburn-zeta-the-strange-adelaide-micro-car/news-story/c9aa7040eadd1bda52cc77b6c75aa877
    Michelle Grattan on the 478 courses the government has knocked out of the VET loans scheme. The big question is how t=did they get there in the first place?
    https://theconversation.com/government-knocks-out-478-courses-from-loans-under-vet-crackdown-66748

  14. Boo hoo! BK is trying to get my Elephant stamp for being the first one up in the morning!
    Or is he just making sure I have something to read?
    : )

  15. I think this poll proves that people think Malcolm Turnbull is doing a better job of poncing about as PM, BUT his show still stinks. As in, if the government were a stage play, the lead actor would get props for acting his part well but the supporting cast and the script leave a lot to be desired.

  17. Thinking of L/NP State Treasurers (think Buswell, Porter and Nahan) the appearance of evil clowns in WA isn’t a surprise –

    A “WA-Perth Clown Purge” Facebook page suggests the movement has made it to the west.

    Posts on the page are similarly creepy and cryptic as those on the national page.

    WA Police said it can only take action against the craze if a criminal offence was committed.

    “From time to time we see online crazes that involve people doing silly things in public. At this stage we not aware of any specific complaints made to WA Police regarding this craze,” a police statement said.

    “There is a fine line between a harmless prank and one that creates fear to others or causes undue distress.”

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/32834044/no-laughing-matter-police-warn-lurking-clowns/#page1

  18. Now Tony Abbott is sending out his surrogate to preach ‘the Liberal Party has lost it’s soul’. And how can it be restored? Well Tony might let us know when he makes his speech.

    “The president of Tony Abbott’s federal electoral conference in Warringah has warned the New South Wales Liberal party “is in an unprecedented crisis that has many of the characteristics that prompted Sir Robert Menzies to establish the Liberal party in the first place”.

    In a missive inviting party members to a democratic reform convention to be held in Sydney next week, Walter Villatora tells members “our party has lost its heart and soul”.

    “The new forgotten people are not the millions of middle-class Australians of concern to Menzies but the very members of today’s NSW Liberal party,” the circular says.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/10/tony-abbott-to-address-sydney-convention-on-liberal-party-reform?CMP=soc_568

  19. Sprocket

    “The president of Tony Abbott’s federal electoral conference in Warringah has warned the New South Wales Liberal party “is in an unprecedented crisis that has many of the characteristics that prompted Sir Robert Menzies to establish the Liberal party in the first place”.

    The ‘Liberal’ party that Abbott and his adherents wish for is a vastly different thing to what Menzies established.

  20. I understand the GOP is now suggesting that the release of the tapes on Trumps behavior was in fact a strike against GOP as a party by the Dems and their supporters. Trump was just the expendable vehicle. It was timed to prevent any major change away from Trump yet to give the Dems the time to make large inroads in the senate and the house.
    I would not discard the theory.

  21. Morning all

    Thank you BK for today’s offerings.

    Looking at today’s Newspoll, i cant believe it has been a 100 days since election. How many sitting days has this parliament had so far? It feels like none.

  23. Morning all and thanks BK. The US debate II will leave the Potus race unrecoverable for Trump if he cannot beat Clinton today, on top of the scandals. For that reason, regardless of his actual performance, I expect the conservative half of the media will call it in his favour regardless of how he performs.

  27. Alan
    The Trump tapes were dug up by a Washington Post reporter. The WaPo is one of the more conservative US papers. But they were annoyed that Trump put them on a “do not interview” list after earlier skirmishes during the repugnant primaries. So they started digging on him. As usual, it is Trump’s own fault.

  28. Alan Davis

    This is how tape came about…….

    Even though they haven’t been released, the Apprentice tapes are already reshaping the race. It was an Associated Press report on what Trump had said and done on the set of The Apprentice that prompted Access Hollywood to go looking through its own archives, and to unearth the recording that shook the campaign on Friday afternoon. Trump has spent decades courting media attention. It’s a safe bet that other producers are looking back through their own archives this weekend, and reviewing what they caught on camera, too.

  30. I didn’t think the previous poll was a rogue, while not a predictor of an election result, I think it ‘feels’ right.
    I don’t get why the press gallery thought when the previous poll was released that the government had had some wins on Super changes and the backpacker tax, these were both back downs by the leadership to their own backbench.
    The electorate while disappointed with the PM are also well aware of the disunity in the party.

  31. Victoria
    Monday, October 10, 2016 at 7:35 am
    Lizzie

    I am hoping that you will be posting soon and only reason you havent as yet is due to power outage in your area.

    Vic

    Yesterday when Lizzie yesterday was describing the trees coming down on her property in the gale force winds I asked her what area she lives in. She said she lives between Lilydale and Warburton. She then stopped posting.

    I was concerned later to hear on the radio that a woman had been killed at Milburn (between Lilydale and Warburton) by a falling tree. I hope we hear from Lizzie today.

  34. BB

    Woke up this morning to find I had two delightful foxy/Jack Russell terriers that had been sleeping in the bedrooms (nice freshly made bed). Tails going at 100mph.

    Have rung owners. They have travelled quite a way.

  37. Looks like Luke Foley was on the money after all..

    “PREMIER Mike Baird will announce a reversal of his greyhound racing ban based on industry guarantees of an end to the slaughter of dogs and tough new penalties for animal cruelty.”

    Ban legislated in August ..overturned in October. It his a new back-flip world record?!!..

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/greyhound-ban-mike-baird-to-announce-reversal-based-on-industry-guarantees-to-end-dog-slaughter/news-story/7ccf345262841266a9a9ab040b45c5c9

  39. Several problems with that ‘pushed’ renewable questions.

    1) It’s generally considered bad practice to state what side of the debate particular parties or people are on – it encourages some people to simply vote based on partisan lines, not based on the actual question.

    2) “As much as” is used to make the targets sound extreme. If they wanted a genuine question, they would have provided a NEM-wide figure for % that would come from renewables if all states exactly met their targets, and not said “as much as”.

    3) The question is phrased to make people think that “the targets are unrealistic” is a fact, and they are asking them “do you think this fact will impact energy security”.

  40. Victoria

    There were two women injured in the area – one was in her 80s, the other who died was 57 I think.

    Somehow I always thought Lizzie to be in her 70s, but if she is in her 50s then I am concerned.

  41. Only Tony Abbott possesses the qualities required. It is not merely that he possesses ‘the national and international stature, the energy, the self-deprecating sense of national duty and the solid set of Liberal community values’, but he is also a man of instinctive generosity of spirit, one capable of forgiving most – though obviously not all – of those who previously betrayed him. With a rejuvenated leadership, and the Thanks for the spectator link , that was a good read on staffer brats.
    This http://spectator.com.au/2016/10/dis-con-notes/
    article from 2 weeks ago is less so.
    Written in the aftermath of the previous news poll on leadership and the ‘disillusioned cons’, as opposed to ‘del-cons’

    “Only Tony Abbott possesses the qualities required. It is not merely that he possesses ‘the national and international stature, the energy, the self-deprecating sense of national duty and the solid set of Liberal community values’, but he is also a man of instinctive generosity of spirit, one capable of forgiving most – though obviously not all – of those who previously betrayed him. With a rejuvenated leadership, and the ‘Dis-Cons’ flooding back (that ‘lesson on loyalty’ having been well and truly taught), the Liberals would again be in a winning position, with Bill Shorten’s vulnerabilities to an outstanding campaigner like Tony Abbott obvious. ”

    I think it was the forgiving, generosity of spirit bit that got me.

  42. dtt

    i do believe Lizzie is not that age. I will feel a lot better when we hear from her and that she is okay. The winds were atrocious yesterday and her part of the world copped a beating.

  44. Good Morning

    I am surprised there has been no movement towards Labor in 2pp terms. Seems the media polishing is having an affect on those not paying attention to politics.

  48. Victoria..

    Different rules apply to ALP stuff-ups and back-flips ..media always portray Liberal back-flips as “listening” ..”consulting” ..”fine-tuning” ..or some-such rubbish!!

  50. I said at the time Foley had picked the winning side on this one (without much agreement around here).

    Firstly and most obviously the threat to Wentworth Park was going to bite. No one believes politician’s assurances that expensive real estate isn’t going to get sold off. In fact the denial is virtually a confirmation.

    Also the ban the dishlickers but do nothing about the horses was just far too obviously a class war for Labor not back. Foley’s position taken from the report was to have the RSPCA pretty much set and police the standards. That should provide adequate controls over cruelty. So then he could credibly stick up for the working class people involved in the industry.

    Of course having Nats who also represent lower socio economic areas as allies didn’t hurt. But it was just far too high handed bash the poor and nick their land to survive.

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