Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 45 of 45
1 44 45
  1. Those fault KK do not cite her own deficiencies. Instead they cite the errors of someone else – her husband. She is therefore being defined not by who she is or what she has done (her own merit) but by her status as a “wife”.

    In the same way, you define her not by who she is or what she has done (her own merit) but by her status as a “friend ” of another person, Bill Shorten.

    That is sexist. Face it.

  2. Bemused @ 11.26

    Did you read the article before you responded? The point in the article, and the point made by Briefly, was not that she was a woman, but that she was a ‘wife’, that is, she is smeared by attitudes and enemies of her partner, that likely would not occur or be as prominent in criticism were it the other way around.

    It is the kind of dynamic that is most obvious in the case of Hillary Clinton.

  3. Matthew Dowd ‏@matthewjdowd
    “Trump and his campaign have done what dems could never do: big damage to GOP brand, raise Obama’s approval, increase Clinton favorability”

  4. BM The ALP candidate in Hotham in 1972 was Barry Johnston (or something like that- my nominal aphasia is getting worse!) who was a draft dodger . It was a pity, as we could have won and got rid of Don Chipp, but at least it underlined our view about the Vietnam War.
    I don’t know much about KK, and maybe you’re right about her, but the process was normal. Complaining is like BW discussing umpires.
    If you have a better way, what should it be?

  5. For those younger than 50, Don Chipp was the Nick Xenophon of the 70s and 80s. A rejected Lib cabinet minister, he founded the Lib Lite group called the Australian Democrats. Like Xenophon a pseud of the 1st order!

  6. Is there any risk that predictions of a Clinton landslide might benefit Trump by disincentivising low interest voters who might otherwise have turned out for her?

  7. Rossmore #2166 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    My take on the current ABC. It embodies a narrow contemporary Canberra public service mindset. In the Canberra beltway, cynicism rules, John Howard is a hero, values are quite dispensible and the ALP is a bad dream.

    Your suggestion of the ‘narrow contemporary Canberra public service mindset’ is not supported by the facts that the last 3 ACT Governments have been Labor governments and that 3 of the 4 ACT Federal Parliamentary representatives are from the Labor Party …

    You should join the MSM with their ongoing conflation of ‘Canberra’ as some entity that only exists only as a combination of political representatives, their staff and the Press themselves. These people have nothing much to do with Canberra itself – they know their way from the airport to Parliament Hse, to Kingston and Manuka and that’s about it.

  8. Player One @ #2183 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    Waleed Aly calls out the media … you know … that media … over there!

    Yep, that’s him alright. Really puts on this ‘overview’ mode making judgment on his fellow ‘scribblers’ and ‘flacks’.

    Not worth listing to.

Comments Page 45 of 45
1 44 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *