Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. Victoria:

    Michelle Obama’s New Hampshire speech is another light in an otherwise very dark POTUS campaign. She truly is a woman of substance.

  4. P1:

    Is there one effective, meaningful or useful thing Brandis has done as AG apart from making himself look like a total ass?

  8. If you have to ask who is Jo Strummer you truly werent alive in the late 70s early 80s. His best work though was with The Mescaleros.

  9. Boomy1
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 8:00 pm
    …”But Adrian will spin it to be shocking ABC bias”…

    Our A.B.C. is certainly not biased, it is inadequately funded, under constant and continuous threat, and has been manipulated into having a deluded self-sense of its place in the world. If it were still under the structural control of John Howard, A.B.C. would be in a World of shit.

    …”Bemused is a dropkick…”

    No he isn’t.
    Your mother is, in fact negligent, in under-teaching you the value of using complex words, conceptual comprehension and the power of self-awareness to develop an understanding of simple as opposed to, simplistic ideas.

    …”(that’s my effort)…

    I’m giving you 4/10 for this, most of your mark correlates with a desire for you to simply do better.
    Stop blaming the Grade 5 kid who is picking on you for the fact that your disruptive behaviour is about to cause you to be sent to the Special School.

  11. Today is the 950th anniversary of the Battle of Hastings.

    October 25 marks the 400th anniversary of Dirk Hartog’s landing on the WA coastline. 😀

  16. My take on the current ABC. It embodies a narrow contemporary Canberra public service mindset. In the Canberra beltway, cynicism rules, John Howard is a hero, values are quite dispensible and the ALP is a bad dream.

    Contrast with the prevailing mindset in Melbourne. Libertarian, positive and the embracing the future
    . Good onya Daniel Andrews ….

    Daniel for Canberra when Bill’s done his bit.

  18. Stop blaming the Grade 5 kid who is picking on you for the fact that your disruptive behaviour is about to cause you to be sent to the Special School.

    Bwahhahhahhaah, it’s like a

  20. I saw Jodi Picoult and Irvine Welsh both critiquing the Nobel Prize for Literature. That’s like Jack the Ripper complaining about a surgical award.

  22. Boomy1
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    …”Bwahhahhahhaah, it’s like a…”

    It’s like a what, big fella?
    Almost, dying to know.

  23. Bemused that still didn’t work, the only hit apart from other Herald Sun articles was some uk site “dnsiskinky.co” which seems dodgy

  24. Player One … nope Rex cant get over the fact Bill S is doing a good job.
    Daniel Andrews is 4 years younger and after two terms in Vic, I hope makes the tilt to Canberra in 2022. He’ll be 50 then a the natural successor to Shorten

  27. Shiftaling:

    IT WASN’T so long ago that Tony Abbott promised to “shirtfront” Vladimir Putin. Now he is one of the lonely voices defending Putin’s great admirer, Donald Trump.

    The former prime minister condemns Trump’s gross and obscene comments about women, as of course he must. But he offers support for the Republican presidential candidate on the policy front.

    “Many of the Trump positions are reasonable enough,” says Abbott, making no mention of the dozens of policies advocated by The Donald that are mad, bad and dangerous.

    …

    ON FRIDAY afternoon, after the Turnbull put-down, Abbott took to Twitter to concede some Trump views were over the top but to assert that “cutting tax and boosting defence are classic conservatism”.

    But if he had in mind only two areas of policy, why did his original comment refer favourably to “many of the Trump positions”? It was a bit of belated backside-covering.

    The truth is that policy is up there with character issues in rendering Trump an embarrassment to the Republican Party and unsuited for the presidency.

    Why Abbott would give the bloke any support at all is a mystery — a misjudgment up there with his knighthoods for princes.

    There is one Trump policy, however, in which Abbott might have taken a particular interest.

    In the second presidential debate, after promising a special prosecutor to investigate his Democrat opponent, Hillary Clinton, Trump asserted that, if he were to become president, she would be in jail.

    It is possible to see Abbott’s use of royal commissions to try to discredit political opponents as a step along the same road.

    An excerpt. William frowns upon full copying and pasting.

  29. Player One

    I have no problems with fingernails across black boards . But Bob Dylan’s nasal whine voice rooly does do what fingernails across the blackboard does not 😆

  31. I’m actually quite happy Dylan was given the prize. His lyrics are fucking awful. So its a fitting tribute to all the other shit they’ve given a Nobel prize for literature for.

  34. Here’s one of Joe’s numbers for Tony, Vlad, Xi and Donald:

    THE CLASH LYRICS
    “Ivan Meets G.I. Joe”

    So you’re on the floor, at 54
    Think you can last – at the Palace
    Does your body go to the to and fro?
    But tonight’s the night – or didn’t you know
    That Ivan meets G.I. Joe

    He tried his tricks- that Russkie bear
    The United Nations said it’s all fair
    He did the radiation – the chemical plague
    But he could not win – with a cossack spin

    The Vostok Bomb – the Stalin strike
    He tried every move – he tried to hitch hike
    He drilled a hole – like a Russian star
    He made every move in his repertoire

    When Ivan meet G.I. Joe

    Now it was G.I. Joe’s turn to blow
    He turned it on – cool and slow
    He tried a payphone call to the Pentagon
    A radar scan – a leviathan

    He wiped the Earth – clean as a plate
    What does it take to make a Russkie break?
    But the crowd are bored and off they go
    Over the road to watch China blow!

    When Ivan meets G.I. Joe

  38. I think the bookshelves prove exactly what sort of man Brandis is. Ostentatious. In an outmoded and ridiculously old-fashioned way.

    Who were the bookshelves full of books supposed to impress and appeal to? No one has books and bookshelves much any more. They have online sources or an e-reader. Lawyers don’t even need all the books full of cases that they line their walls with ostentatiously.

    But no, Brandis had to have the biggest book case in the history of Parliament House. And Custom-Made to boot. In an exercise of utter, onanistic pointlessness.

  44. TPOF
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    Indeed, T. The main charge against KK is that she is a “wife.”

    Sexism is refreshed in Australian politics on a daily basis.

  47. I should add to my post at 11.14 that while I don’t know anything about Kitching, I think Shorten has demonstrated very good judgement and people management skills over the past three years. If he is a very big player in this decision, it may well be an effective demonstration of his authority and standing in his home state party and within the ALP generally, especially when compared to the lack of authority of his Parliamentary rival, the Prime-Minister-in-name-only.

  49. briefly @ #2194 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    TPOF
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 11:14 pm
    Indeed, T. The main charge against KK is that she is a “wife.”
    Sexism is refreshed in Australian politics on a daily basis.

    Utter rubbish.
    Since it was pretty much agreed a woman would be chosen, and all the other contenders I have heard mentioned were women, how on earth can you deduce that sexism came into it?
    She had some black marks in her own past but wasn’t helped by having a notorious spouse.

  50. Douglas and Milko,
    I almost can’t believe it myself! Grandmaster Flash is someone I never thought I’d see in my life!
    The Avalanches are pretty cool too.
    : )

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