Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Music is literature for performance, as is playwriting. Shakespeare and Chaucer both wrote for performance and would qualify for the Nobel prize in most people’s eyes.

    I am not a fan of Dylan’s but I don’t begrudge the award (which is ALWAYS a subjective thing)

  2. ‘If that’s the best you can do by way of insult, you will just have to try a lot harder.’

    What makes you think you’re worth the effort?

  3. But it does seem a popular pastime with some on PB.

    Posted Friday, January 8, 2016 at 4:57 pm | PERMALINK
    victoria@914
    bemused
    The only one always wallowing is you
    You are just a disgusting excuse for a human being.

  4. boerwar @ #1845 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    …”Giving Dylan the Noble Prize for Literature is a sick, sick joke.
    Dylan routinely brutalizes syntax in order to force pathetic rhymes.
    You might as well make Trump POTUS”…

    Anyone born after 1896 must be automatically precluded from such an honor.
    Or, summarily executed, hung by one’s neck until dead.
    I did not fight and die in 14 World Wars so some, flower power, bushwacking, marijuana smoking poofter, NINTEEN bloody sixties, poet, could win international award for using words he used, and words and stuff.
    Churchill was a poet, Menzies? For the love of GOD, what about Menzies, poet, absolute… poet.
    Back into the recidivist, troglodite cave I go…
    God save our gracious Queen, God save our nobel Queen…
    God save the King…

  5. Get fucked Bemused, you pissed the bed this morning and got stuck into anyone that hadn’t. Really, deal with it , it’s sad.

  6. There are people who proudly call Bogan Street, Bogan Gate, NSW 2876, home. Their kids go to Bogan Gate Public School at 5, Bogan Street, Bogan Gate.

  7. Stick it up ’em Bemused.
    The only opportunity for a dumb fucker to comprehend that it is a dumb fucker is if it pointed out by a superior.
    How else would a monkey come down out of a tree, unless a neanderthal threw a rock at it?

  8. I vote “Wanker”:

    The problem with food is we forget what we’re paying for. We all know the cost of a chicken or a tomato in the supermarket, and when we sit down to a restaurant we expect the price of our meal to be relative to that. But the real value-proposition of a high-end restaurant isn’t ingredients. It isn’t even tasty food really, as perverse as that may seem.

    At a high-end restaurant you’re paying for art, skill, concept, theatre and service. The meal itself is little more than a vehicle for those things.

    It might sound terribly wanky but if all you’re after is good food and you’re paying $500 for it, then you might not be doing it right. You could just as easily be satisfied in that regard with a $5 cheeseburger or an apple off a tree.

    In the grand scheme of what we will pay for experiences, a few hundred dollars for the services of some of the best chefs in the world, a good meal and an unforgettable experience? It’s a bargain if you ask me.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/14/the-600-dinner-have-we-all-gone-mad

  9. Don’t want to wrangle the old gizzard but this mornings kick off comment was totally below the belt & aimed at a regular “female” poster.

    Anyone guess whom I mean?

  10. I would also like to provide an analytically assertive and functional defense of the 2nd most intelligent P.M. this borderline retarded country has ever been both blessed with, and subsequently rejected, if any of you wankers wanna listen?

  11. Bemused is not happy unless he’s picking on someone, anyone.

    After the usual counter reaction, he can them claim it HIM that’s being bullied.

    He does not learn. William will not ban him, or send him away to cool off. So it continues.

    Every.Single.Night.The.Same.

  12. Boerwar
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 8:57 pm
    Mh
    …”Just scroll on by. No feed, no troll…”
    If Ya stick your fingers in Yer ears, them bombs will stop falling, and the world might go on, into broad, sunlit uplands…

  13. bushfire bill @ #2123 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 9:01 pm

    Bemused is not happy unless he’s picking on someone, anyone.
    After the usual counter reaction, he can them claim it HIM that’s being bullied.
    He does not learn. William will not ban him, or send him away to cool off. So it continues.
    Every.Single.Night.The.Same.

    On this occasion, William does not have to look very far back to wee the evidence with his own eyes.
    And he and see your normal bullshit and bluster for what it is.

  14. Here’s an article on the KK appointment by Ben Schneiders, “Investigative reporter for The Age”. In summary, he thinks it’s a bad move, in spite of Ms K’s surface appeal and ticking a number of boxes:

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shorten-has-erred-in-backing-new-senator-kimberley-kitching-20161014-gs2l6n.html

    I am not familiar with his work, but maybe our Melbourne posters are. A quick scan of his titles reveals that unions seem to be targets of much of his ‘investigating’.

  15. steve777 @ #2129 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    Here’s an article on the KK appointment by Ben Schneiders, “Investigative reporter for The Age”. In summary, he thinks it’s a bad move, in spite of Ms K’s surface appeal and ticking a number of boxes:
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shorten-has-erred-in-backing-new-senator-kimberley-kitching-20161014-gs2l6n.html
    I am not familiar with his work, but maybe our Melbourne posters are. A quick scan of his titles reveals that unions seem to be targets of much of his ‘investigating’.

    Schneiders certainly does not seem to be very Labor friendly.
    But that doesn’t mean everything he writes is wrong.
    I cannot see the appeal of Ms Kitching apart from personal connections and maybe a feeling that what Labor really needs is yet another lawyer in Parliament.

  16. Bushfire Bill
    Friday, October 14, 2016 at 9:01 pm
    …”Bemused is not happy unless he’s picking on someone, anyone…”
    …”After the usual counter reaction, he can them claim it HIM that’s being bullied…”
    …”He does not learn. William will not ban him, or send him away to cool off. So it continues…”
    And what right is it of yours, to pathetically beg, literally beg and demand, without subtlety, the removal of the legal right to expression, of another?

    …”Every.Single.Night.The.Same…”
    Wah, Wah, Wah.
    Tell me another of your silly, overtly embelished stories with respect to some Labor functionary you once met, or a stupid Sydney shock jock you once “almost” ran over in your car.
    How about a semi-literate, crap illiteration, with witness to a street you once walked down back in the ’60’s which ain’t the same as it once was.
    The World don’t give a flying fuck mate.

  17. Victoria:

    Thanks for posting that, I will watch later. I really did think the straight bat ‘thanks but no thanks’, hit em with facts response from the NYT to the Donald’s libel accusation is exactly the way you handle egomaniacs like Trump. It was Bill Maher-ish in its simplicity.

  18. Dylan. Will he be remembered as 1% of the late 20th Century cultural legacy? I belive he will. A worthy Nobel winner. So long as Jo Strummer gets a similar gong in the next 25 years

  19. P1:

    Brandis is another of Turnbull’s liabilities. He must sack him, yet he is in a position leadership-wise where this is difficult. Brandis has to be the worst AG the country has ever had.

  20. Sprocket_
    “Obviously the Nobel Commitee are sick of being known as old farts. How much publicity have they got over choosing Bob Dylan? I reckon Kanye West next year.”

    Springsteen for me, especially for the early stuff, up to and including Born to Run album.

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